Dappa Dan

So overvalued. Back 10 years ago people thought all drafts would end up like the Judd/Ball/Hodge year, where an early pick is a sure thing. As time's gone on though, we've seen how drafts are supposed to work in US sports... And we can't quite get that effective (recruitment age way younger). Nowadays if you have a known quantity, it's much easier to pull the trigger on an overs trade. Not only that, but we've seen so much value come from mature age players in third and fourth rounds... Picks aren't what they used to be.

That's exactly what I reckon a Hogan trade now will be seen as in the future. When he signed last time, it was supposed to be years and years. 4+... Then when he finally did it was much shorter. From what I can understand, he also timed it for the new CBA to take advantage of that. The longer I go the more I think this was engineered years ago. But it's only now it's being leaked to the public.

I've been wondering about that. the opinion on May is wildlly divided... At least with Lever you had most people rating him as 2 firsts, through to a 1st and 2nd... I've heard some say May is worth only a third. Others say he's worth pick 5... I'm inclined to go with a straight up pick 5. Lever was 2 firsts because he's a class player, AA and has 10 years left. May is still quite young (26), is a proven KP back (they're rare). Also his market value is climbing with all these other clubs keen on him. If Dons offer a first rounder and change for him, then we may need to up our offer.

Hopefully the Eagles will still be thereabouts later in the year. That will be game of the season.

Seahawks, Chiefs and Saints.

I KNEW you'd say that. They're another 5-6 injuries from being brought back to the pack. Donald and Gurley are #1 in the league in their positions. No-one can figure out McVay, Goff is quietly achieving... WRs are flying all over the place. They're in superb shape.

No disrespect to the OP... Good start to a thread and well researched. But if you're missing out on GFs because of a couple of games, close ones, then it's just part of the maths of the thing. We lost a handful of close games this year, and didn't win any close ones. It's a statistical anomaly that will correct itself. There'll be years in the future we go 12-10 and win 4 close ones, lose 0 close ones... Does that mean we're worse? Being clutch is something they talk about a lot in US sports. The games are designed within the rules to always be close. AFL isn't like that. We were unlucky to not be top 4 this year. Let's not forget though that we were out of finals last year. Next year we'll improve again. It's the way of things.

It's such a load of garbage isn't it. Lever was worth 2. Jesse is worth more. It's that simple. Yes. No. It's clear now that it's Jesse's management who's come to the club, not the other way around. It's also absolutely believable. We took a risk and mini-drafted a KPF who worked out exactly as expected... Of course we're not going to engineer a trade. It's come from Jesse's camp.

@Gorgoroth https://247sports.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/ContentGallery/NFL-Super-Bowl-LIII-odds-each-team-Week-4-121738196/#121738196_2 There you go Gorg. Even the bookmakers... I don't think the Eagles were ever even close to this much of a fancy. Your head must be spinning.

Ugh. Saints 3rd probably is a bit rich... I'm thinking Kent and swap their second for our second or something like that.

Yeah. Exactly what I was thinking til this crap started. I’d be happy to never see another first rounder for the next 5 years of it meant grand finals.

Yeah, I do love a future pick though. If you’d have taken one from someone lol the crows last year expecting them to be top 4 again, you’d be laughing all season watching it climb.

This sucks. Part of the fun of draft is the months leading up, deciding who you want, thinking about it. We didn’t even get that.

That's a good point. Most of the seasoned heads here lived through scully, of course. Crash course in PR crap.

There's "floating the idea" then there's saying "he's not very good and we'd be better off without him."

I haven't had a look yet. Look forward to it. I'm pumped to see Rosen now he's been named.

Lever wasn't even contracted and is nowhere near as good a player as Jesse. The price HAS to be a lot higher than two mid-late firsts. Jesse is a once in a generation KP forward. They don't grow on trees. Noone-'s offering ridiculous trades here. The only ridiculous one is two firsts and Brayshaw. And even then, it's only ridiculous cos they can't afford it. Not because it isn't fair. Check out the kinds of trades other professional sports throw up for players that aren't even once-in-a-generation. We're quaint and provincial if we think 2 first rounders is somehow a wacky, nutty offer.

That was it.

I swear to god I thought Scully was involved somehow...

1. I see what you mean, but I'm seeing him get space on those 5-10 metre quick twitch leads often... My problem is less his pace, more when he times those leads. Often he's finding a very small hole and the space closes before the play can show itself as a good option for the passer. You know the lead I'm talking about.. the one where he takes 5 steps at 100%, someone drops into the hole, and he sooks... Not only that but we just don't have good inside fifty kicks (besides Melks), which really impacts his confidence in a lead. Plus, in years gone by, his strength has been... well... strength. He LOVES the physical stuff. Always has. In his first few years part of the joy of watching him was out in front of players on a lead from the square. What's changed since then? I refuse to believe he's gotten slower (he's 24)... I think it's oppo teams identifying that he's too good to leave with a paddock in front of him. Which is why so many of his goals were over the back this year. 2. Sort of explained this one above. I really think it's oppo coaches seeing the tape on him from years 1-3... You don't have to be a genius to see that demons are strong in the air. Max, TMac and Hogan... we're gonna have mid-tall defenders dropping into the hole for the next 5 years, it's a certainty. And nah, I dunno about the "forwards make it easier." I really do think we lack in footskills when going inside fifty and that that's a huge part of why he's not as effective. The proof of that is when Salem and Melksham get busy. Suddenly Jesse looks like he's a genius when those guys get enough of the ball on a forward flank. When it's almost anyone else, he looks dumb. Picture ANB or Gawn or even Jones, Trac kicking inside fifty. There's some pretty awkward touch in amongst those names. I don't even think Ben Brown would have him beaten. And if you want a list of forwards in his class that I think are slower. There's one. Daniher another. McCarthy. Tomohawk. Westhoff. Dixon. McCartin.... there's more than a few that move similar or slower than him. He's a big lad after all. 3. Can agree to disagree too. I've seen him kick for tough many times. I'm not saying he's Salem or anything, but he has the deft touch. I think where you have a point is the Tracca-like kick, 50 metre lofted ball that lands softly in the lap of a forward running full tilt. Jesse doesn't have that kick. Then again... I don't recall too many demons in my life that do. Thing of beauty. 4. Yeah certainly haven't seen it since his first two big years and a little in his injury-riddled year. But as I say... I'm confident he'll find that again. I have a feeling his endurance work has sapped his burst energy. Gee he was blowing hard at the end of games. 5. What's the key difference between Kennedy, Buddy and Riewoldt vs Hogan. Age. What were those three guys doing, defensively, in their early 20s? Absolutely NOTHING. That's not an excuse, of course. But as I say, I think when a player like him isn't working better in that area it can be because his coach has set him a role. He leads so much and runs so far, doubles back... then sits in a pocket. I'm not sure where hes supposed to defend within that routine. That's not to say I disagree... but it's worth pointing out Riewoldt plays a vastly different role. So does Buddy. Actually only Kennedy is similar. No disagreement from me on Jack Reiwoldt. My favourite non-demon. Has been for about 5 years. I've always loved Hogan precisely because he does all the KP forward stuff well (at least). I've always wanted to have one that doesn't have a glaring weakness. That's what I see with Jesse. When the worst people can say definitively on him is that he has odd body language sometimes, I reckon it's cos he's above average in every other category. That's why I love him. It builds trust from a fan's perspective. Weird that we're discussing a player this much who won't even be at MFC in a few weeks. I would point out though, that we can dispute how we see him as a player all we want... I suspect what's really important is only how FREO see him. He's already a decorated player. Rising stars and club goalkicker awards... As much as we have our thoughts... It's Freo's and Peter Bell's that are important.

We're not "entertaining" the idea of a trade. We know he's gone in 12 months so are getting what we can while we can. Besides... the club wasn't considering trading him til he came to us and said he wouldn't sign at any point next year. 1. Hogan's among the quickest KP forward going around. Regularly burned opponents off up the ground with a tank many had spoken of as Riewoldt-like. Don't know what you've been watching. Around the bye his foot flared up and he took a hit to his overall impact. But was still dominant in most games in this area. 2. Fair enough. I saw him run under the ball a bit early this year which I didn't like. His previous three years though, he was superb at leading and doubling back. I'll go with the bulk of the data I've seen in which he's strong in this area. Kicking 40 a year as a kid in a crap side tells you all you need to know about his leading and deep forward credentials. 3. Distance kicking? I'm with you. You love to see a big-time KPF be able to eke out a 55 metre drop punt when absolutely called upon. Maybe wind assisted. Watts was this guy for a while. It'd be tough, but it was within him. Jesse wasn't that guy. But as with all the other myths perpetuated on here by people who want him out of the club because they don't like distractions, Jesse is among the straightest kicks going around for the kids coming through now. His 4 seasons to date... 44.19, 44.33, 20.6, 47.23... for a total of 155.81.... There's nothing wrong with his kicking at goal. When it comes to field kicking, he's genuinely one of the best in the side. His stab kicks are a thing of beauty. Not only that but his decision making and set ups down the ground work great. Going inside fifty, sure, he wasn't as sharp. But then... who was at MFC this year. 4. Pack marks. How often in years 1-3? Regularly and with startlingly effective bodywork. He'd outpoint bigger, older opponents, marks it at its highest point. And close to goal. When he didn't he would clean up 2 defenders leaving spillages for Garlett to work his magic. This year? Certainly since his injury around the bye I don't think I saw him jump at a ball once. Before that, he was down on his pack marking as well. Overall though, he's still a sensational pack mark and pack buster. He doesn't have the sky-scraping ability of Weed, or the strength in the contest of TMac. But then... who does... 5. I don't recruit a Jesse Hogan for the defensive efforts. He gets a few tackles here and there, particularly when given a run in the midfield. But as with Weed (when he's not rucking) and TMac... no-one's asking these guys to get in and under like Olly. In fact if they did you'd be annoyed they're not further forward kicking goals. I buy your point when we're pressing up after a behind... but when we do (and we do it well), Jesse is almost always the man on the mark. His forward pressure is all about applying some corralling, then getting back and offering a big body target. So I can't go with you on any of your points. And am four square against you on a couple of them. But I get your point. I think if you want t o do a breakdown of 5 faults, you can do them for anyone in the league, just about. Including the guy who just won the Brownlow. We don't have to agree though... and I hope you're right. I hope he's just a good ordinary. The stats suggest though that he's absolutely exceptional. The comparison between him and guys like Brown, Riewoldt and others... he's ahead of them. That says it all.

Sure have. I always look back at the Buddy one. Hawks fans were always relatively at peace with it. They'd won a flag with him, and were looking to the future despite getting very little back. I'm hoping I can get to that stage.

TMac, of course, is the other one to mention there. He's just about as proven as Jesse. Contested marking, straight kicking, huge engine... got the lot. Just is a bit older and has less time left in his career. Probably has just a few less strings to his bow too... Weid won't be doing it on his own. TMac is a helluva companion up there. But yeah, no doubt you take Jesse out of any team and they're worse.

I admire your gumption. But I can't go with you. If we had huge distractions around trade period for the next 8 years, but got 300 games of Jesse Hogan in return? I'd take that every day of the week, and so would almost any other club. It's the price you pay for having good players. They always have a target on their back.

Jesse goes to that club with Fyfe still there... their first rounder next year wont be within the first 5. And it won't be a superdraft. Only way that future pick becomes sexy to us is if they bottom out completely and win a spoon. GC will have that covered for the next few years.