0livers Army

I’m too young to have seen Barrassi or Flower, but it seems undisputed they are both top 5 if not top 3. In my time I’m possibly also too young to have clean memories of peak Lyon, Jakovich, Stynes or pre-knee Ox. Of those I’ve witnessed for the vast majority of whole careers, I’d have: Gawn, Oliver Daylight Petracca Probably some more daylight Yze, Neitz White, Viney Below that I’m not sure anyone is worthy of being compared to the above due to either too few games with us/incomplete careers (Farmer, May, Lever, Pickett etc) or not quite consistently being at the level of those above (Jones, J Mac, Robertson, Johnstone). I will say that Pickett is probably the most amazing player I’ve seen surpassing even Farmer and if he keeps it up he’ll be right up there. I’ve probably forgotten a few. We’ve had a few forwards at times who really should be on this list but for a number of reason just didn’t work out - Jurrah, Hogan and even Mitch Clark.

Agree. Maybe not what we expected but at this stage I see Windsor as having the potential to be that inside to outside mid and should get exposure in the centre square especially when Kozzie starts forward. Windsor showed he has pretty good awareness in tight and has the pace to get out of trouble. Wing seems to suit Langford’s strengths for the moment where he can use his aerial strength and goal sense drifting forward.

I see Langford a lot differently to most on here. We can all agree he’s had a very good first year and has scope to become a great player in time. He’s already shown in one on one contests his ability to position his body should make him a weapon in the air. I also don’t see his lack of pace limiting him too much. He’s already made a couple of run down tackles on fairly quick opponents and isn’t slow to the point he can just get run around. Plenty of guns in the comp are a similar pace. He’s also spent good time on the wing and shown capability to cover the ground and support in defence and attack. He’s also got great goal sense which is hard to teach. At times some of his ground ball gets are Oliver-esque. He’s not fumbly and that more than compensates for any slight lack of pace. Areas for improvement I see: Whilst he definitely has shown he sees the play unfold well when he has time and space (often makes great decisions after taking a mark), under pressure he blindly handballs too much and sometimes he bangs long when he probably has more time than he thinks. He’s spilt a few marks throughout the year where he’s done the hard work to get into good position. From what I’ve seen it’s generally when he has had a clear run at the ball but does receive some body contact. It’s really not unexpected that a 19 year old has these areas for improvement. Decision making under pressure and marking while under body pressure typically improve with experience and strength but he’ll definitely need to improve his distribution while under the pump if he wants to be an elite midfielder. In the short to mid term I see him being most effective on the wing rotating forward on occasion. Very quickly on Lindsay - jury still out based on lack of exposure and the lack of a preseason but he is harder at the ball than I expected. On the flip side I think his kicking, while nice looking from a technique perspective, was mostly wasteful. Again like Langford, I’m hoping this improves as he adjusts to AFL pressure. They both look like they have the tools to succeed.

I didn’t know that 2022 stat but I’m not surprised. We weren’t challenged for the first 10 weeks or so and just about every loss from that point on we got overrun in second halves (the Freo game and both finals stick in the memory). We no doubt had fitness issues in the latter half of the year and I think Geelong were well ahead of every other team that year anyway once it really counted.

I know it takes a bit of work to put something like this together, but if you pick and choose which stats to include it needs to make logical sense based on what you’re trying to show. Defence: Including stats like tackles in D50, defensive pressure acts and spoils will penalise truly good defensive teams that prevent good entries and have high intercept marks. As noted, if we’re not first in 2021 in any defensive rating, the rating calculation is deeply flawed. I’d find it more useful to look at only 1 stat - expected score against. Judges everything to do with how our game plan prevents scoring but removes the part out of our control (opposition actual score vs expected). Offence: The stats used build redundancy. If you’re averaging inside 50s, marks per inside 50 and total marks inside 50 you’re biasing the data towards these data points. Similarly when you include data points like total shots, goals inside 50 and accuracy it builds redundancy. You may as well just include total score. I can understand why you’re looking at biasing towards marks inside 50 and set shots to judge forward connection, but again I’m not sure it’s a fair representation. There are so many scenarios in footy which demonstrate great forward connection that won’t be shown in these stats (think bang bang bang in the gf). I’d be really curious if you could run your metrics against each side and compare how the top sides ranked. I’d be confident there wouldn’t be a great correlation between high rating and ladder position.

We reverted back to our Round 1-5 CBA mix and no coincidence we got smacked from clearance scores. It’s really madness to not have Pickett at just above 50% CBA attendance especially considering Windsor’s absence. Also can’t understand the logic of increasing Petracca’s CBA attendance at the expense of Oliver and Viney. Oliver and Viney cop a lot on here in regards to disposal and sometimes rightly so, but you can’t doubt they make us harder to play against and are consistently have the highest pressure ratings in our team. Petracca has never been a great pressure or first possession player so should only really be used in there when Pickett (and/or Windsor in the future) are having a break. I guess the consolation is that these 3 weeks are mainly experimental and any decent coach will see the clear correlation. Question for those more in the know - would midfield rotation largely fall on Jones or the head coach in terms of general direction and strategy?

Yep. Sucked in by the media narrative of our poor forward connection and completely dissolved everything we were once good at. You can just see the players are confused and not on the same page now trying to always play on quickly regardless of if there’s any support around or if it’s an appropriate area of the ground to do so. The best way to create forward connection is by what you do without the ball and we just struggle to create forward half turnovers anymore or even force opposition to play through non dangerous areas. I’m still hopeful we can turn it around next year. The way we’ve played this year just brings out the worst in our players and highlights their deficiencies. More systemic than personnel in my opinion.

There’s so much speculation in this topic as to why Petracca is slow to get started but no one has actually asked whether it is true. I’ve looked through the quarter by quarter ratings back to about round 10 and there’s no obviously correlation showing Petracca’s ratings starting low and improving as the game wears on. 2 games he had absolute stinkers in the first half, but another game he had the same in the second half after dominating in the first. Other games are mostly close between first and second halves or random variance between quarters. Without actually having calculated it, I’d say his average ratings in first and second halves would be very similar over that stretch.

I’d lean towards the opposite being true. I think stars who have dropped off get judged more harshly than rising stars. Ed Richards aside who is already the real deal, the remaining names on that list don’t come close to Petracca and Oliver’s current output but raise excitement because of potential that may or may not be realised. I’d suggest outside Richards, it’s unlikely more than 1 of the others are in the top 50 players in the comp at any point in their career (I’m hopeful Langford will be). Imagine if Oliver or Petracca were first or second year players at their current output. Everyone would be drooling. They’ve had a year or two from hell and aren’t exactly old. I’ll back them to get closer to their best rather than hoping to get new talent (second round picks?) that may or may not be starters let alone very good players at the level.

Unparalleled intercept possessions for an inside mid. Second half of this year he’s been getting this back. Km covered per game he was consistently in our top 5 and well above our other true mids. Stats can be misleading, but not nearly as often as opinions without facts to back them up.

He’s statistically one of the best defensive mids of all time. Even this year he leads us in pressure acts per game despite being down on his peak output. Calls to trade out Oliver or Petracca for a pick in a weak and compromised draft are ridiculous even disregarding that we’d likely take on some of their contract. Would set us back years.

I’d like the complete opposite. If you have a look at our season we were completely terrible from round 2-5 inclusive. The common thread was that we messed with player’s roles too much and had abnormal midfield starters. Langdon, Langford, Sparrow and Rivers all spent good time in there those games and we got belted. The turnaround from the Freo game onwards was the more regular inclusion of Pickett with our genuine extractors to support. I’d like to see Pickett in there as much as possible, Windsor relieving him during his breaks, and then Oliver and Viney with high minutes in there with Petracca only as relief when needed. At any time I reckon you want 2 extractor types with a line breaker and those 5 give us a good mix. Langford and Culley would’ve got plenty of confidence from last week, can’t mess with their roles for the rest of the year. Bowey has been awesome in a consistent role all year, probably 2nd in bnf, and Chandler has been more than serviceable too. Rivers and McVee have been tried before and to me don’t seem suited to it. I’m not completely against Langford in there on occasion for long term development if Lindsay comes back in as an extra winger, but he’s got the attributes to be a damaging winger even now in his first year. I wouldn’t mess with it too much.

I really think it was the other way around. Agree we were tired in 2022 and struggled in second halves late in that year, but Geelong were dominant and clearly the best team that year. 2023 Collingwood finished on top but were underwhelming in the last third of the home and away season. Despite some injuries in the forward line and Oliver’s hammy, we had enough out there in finals to win it. The fact we dominated most of both finals that year despite the Brayshaw incident proves it. It’s easy to forget Joel Smith was a very handy mobile tall forward at that stage. He copped a bit for it, but I can understand May’s thoughts on Collingwood that year. They had a good run at the start of the year, but ended up having an expected percentage in finals of less than 100. It’s so unlikely that you win 3 finals in a row in that case that it hasn’t happened before and may not again.

Did everything we needed to do against a side that are clearly in an experimental and development phase. To give West Coast some credit, at the game today their overlap run and quick switching into space was at times hard to stop. We were made to work hard and often couldn’t shift the zone in time for them to find a clear target inside 50 after changing the angle on us. However their back half turnovers reek of a side being coached not to win the 4 points but to take a gamble and play high risk footy at all costs. I’d argue we’ve been guilty of this this year, particularly early and have slowly tightened up despite the lack of turnaround in W/L record. Some other observations that would be difficult to notice if you watched on TV: Culley isn’t quick, but covers the ground nicely. Seems to have all the tools to be a capable winger. A couple of important grabs in both defence and attack after gut running to get into position. It looked like Langdon played the high half forward role a lot to allow Culley and Langford on the wings which seemed to work. Would be nice if we develop a couple of ‘box to box’ type wingers who are a threat aerially. Fritsch must’ve had fitness/injury issues early this year. He’s now got his spring back and is covering good ground getting separation from his opponent when he roams up to half forward and wing. Hard match up when he’s on. Had a good last month. Oliver might just be back. I reckon he’s actually had a really good last month or two since King’s birthday, but a couple of moments late in games stick in the mind and tend to override the good he’s done prior. His defensive running and pressure seems back to near his best, and it helps now he can tackle without running around with a broken hand. Only note would be only 76% game time so he’s still not quite back to the 2021/22 version, but it seemed like he was off for a lot of the last quarter when it was game over. Petracca didn’t seem to spend a lot of time at clearance and I like it. He’s never been a great clearance player like Oliver and to a lesser extent Viney, but he’s more dangerous forward of the ball. He’s a presence around half forward and while his execution wasn’t always great, he had a bit more confidence to back his strength and power to break away a few times. Petracca more forward freed up a spot for Windsor more often in the middle. He’s didn’t get a lot of it but always made something happen and it makes Viney and Oliver more valuable if they can always have Pickett or Windsor in there to dish it off to. Jury’s out on Windsor’s decision making under pressure and kicking, but there’s no doubt he’s explosive off the mark and breaks lines. Didn’t think Pickett had a huge impact, but then saw he led us in score involvements and metres gained. He’s just so hard to stop now and even in weeks when he doesn’t kick a bag he still contributes plenty. Worth every cent. Petty teases as a forward. Every 4-6 weeks he’ll put in a game like this that gives you hope but I’m not convinced. The guy always gives everything but not sure he’s a natural forward. Van Rooyen needs to improve. He’s a handy second ruck, but struggles to get separation on his opponent when forward. Looks to be a combination of lack of burst speed and forward craft at times. Turner is the real deal. Makes the game look easy. Reminds me of 2021 Lever. A couple of years ago I would’ve said Lever was in our top 3 most important players, now he might be the one I’d consider expendable considering Turner’s role and form this year and Lever’s repeated injury issues. Marvel is a good place to watch the footy. Good facilities, feel closer to the action and multiple options for transport.

If the league is serious about duty of care and head contact, Ryan should be looked at. Was late and not impacting the contest. The fact he made the contact with his own head shouldn’t come into consideration.

Imagine if it turns out that a single quarter in a dead rubber almost single handedly won but a guy who ends up leaving at the end of the year is the highlight of your club’s existence. Nas leaving St Kilda would almost be worse than any other high profile star leaving in recent history. He’s up there with the absolute best and it’s daylight to their next.

Not sure this is as damning as it seems. There are 18 teams in the comp, so on average each team will have 5-6 players in the top 100. We have 14 inside the top 228 which is above average. Perhaps someone who has more understanding of how the AFL rating is measured can chime in, but I’d suggest that this points to what we’re doing without the ball being the biggest drop off (aside from the former luxury of consistently having 3 top 10 rated players multiple years in a row). My guess is that ratings measure primarily what you do with the ball but struggle to consider team defence. I’d guess a high scoring team which leaks goals would have a higher average than a low scoring team with frugal defence. We’ve had a seriously weird statistical year including more than a few unlikely losses, but I’d suggest our problems are much more easily correctable than say a Carlton, Essendon or St Kilda. We’re knocking on the top 8 on the expected ladder which is typically the best predictor of future performance, and the area in which we are currently worst at was previously a strength, so there’s hope. I just hope we don’t panic and throw out everything and start fresh based on game to game results this year. I’d argue that’s exactly what we’ve done to a successful game plan post the Carlton semi loss in 2023. Despite their significant drop off, I’d say the rating above show we’re much better off investing in getting Petracca and Oliver back to near their best rather than trading out in a compromise year when their contracts will greatly limit value. Who replaces them if they go and how do we win clearances?

No case to answer clearly.

Clear difference would be Evans got to the ball first. If he concusses May in the process of getting the ball it’s incidental contact - no case to answer and rightly so. This one is going to be harsh of May as he’s playing the ball almost the whole time, but when you’re late you need to basically either not hit the head or do everything possible to avoid it.

Interesting data Demon Dynasty. While clearly any ranking points system that didn’t have Pickett as by far the best player on the ground isn’t perfect, your system usually aligns pretty well with the eye test I think. Despite some other posts I’ve seen on here to the contrary, I’d have had Oliver and Salem in our best few other than Pickett on the night. Thought their decision making and ball use was improved from their recent struggles and in Oliver’s case he seemed to have a bit of his off the ball gut running back (although obviously not directly adding to his points). Our youngsters are clearly not yet consistent enough despite showing obvious talent. The rest of the year should be about their continued exposure to AFL pressure.

I think we’re half aligned. Wayward kicking isn’t our primary concern right now. Even looking at everything in the expected score ladders, we’re an ordinary team even if we kick straight. My point is that wayward kicking actually isn’t chronic to us. It happens to every team, seemingly at random over the years. Just look at this year and how many results are decided based on which team kicks straighter. I’d say the fact that it happens to all sides repeatedly and at random indicates luck is a significant factor. We play a game where a shank that scrapes through by a mm is awarded 6 points, while just a feather of a touch on a post or a fingernail reduces your score by 5 points. It’s a bit of a myth that we put sides away significantly less than other similarly placed teams in the 2021-2023 period. Our percentage at the end of the year was around 130 each year and in the top few. The fact that we were 30% better than our opposition on average just meant that we were far less likely to lose even when we had bad kicking days. It took something like the 2023 semi where we hit the post 6 or 7 times and had the ANB goal brought back while the opponent had blocked like Owies and Kennedy kicking them from 50m out on the boundary to lose (add the umpire influence that night if you can remember). It sucks, and we don’t lie to accept it, but sometimes the better team on any given day doesn’t win. We’re not the better team by far enough often enough right now.

It obviously looks really bad, but apart from this year, expected score differential to actual hasn’t been a chronic issue for us. In fact in 2024 we won more games that we were expected to lose than vice versa (including winning the away game against Port which was hugely unlikely based on expected score). The thing that really hurts is that since 2022 it’s been 14 times we’ve lost when we should’ve won, but 3 of those times were finals and 7 were against either Collingwood or Carlton. The last 4 times against Carlton have followed a similar script; our actual score has been at or slightly below expected but Carlton’s has been way above expected. The losses in finals may point to the concern having some mental component, but the data suggests the biggest factor is something we don’t like to accept as a part of the game: luck/chance. Carlton have been terrible at converting and they had a day out against us (again). I’d much rather putting our energy into ensuring that we create so many more chances than the opposition that winning becomes more likely than to worrying about conversion issues which typically can’t be sustained over long period above expected based on the data. When you look at it, even if we were at parity with the expected ladder this year it’s still a nothing season and we have issues elsewhere.

I don’t really see how May doesn’t get weeks. Of course he’s initially playing the ball and there’s no intent to hurt, but he’s late, even if just fractionally. That means it’s not incidental contact and that’s what sets it apart from other football acts that occur while competing for the ball (like the knee in the temple). The reality is these days if you think you’re a chance to be second to the ball you need to do everything to ensure you’re not going to make high contact. I think we’ll have a hard time convincing the tribunal May had no other reasonable option and acted with a duty of care.

There’s no doubt this guy is one of the best ever players to pull on the red and blue. His 2017-mid 2023 inclusive period is the single most consistently high performing period I’ve witnessed by a Melbourne player. Even now, reading some of the comments on this thread, his current output is being underrated purely because of how high he set the bar. The thing that can’t be argued is he is statistically one of the best midfielders ever. In the top echelon for disposal, contested possessions, clearances and even score involvements relative to others playing his position. But the thing that really sets him apart and in my opinion has never been fully appreciated outside MFC is what he does off the ball. Contrary to popular media opinion, at his best he was one of the best 2 way runners in the game, and his intercept possessions for a midfielder were off the charts for a long time. He’s dropped off in this area a tad since the hammy, hand issues and off field issues (apparently he is human) but at the game on Sunday I saw signs that this part of his game is returning. It’s no coincidence our defense basically never conceded 100 points while Oliver was at his peak. Along with an elite back 6, having peak Oliver was like playing with an extra player to intercept in front of D50. Add to all of the above that he’s got the cleanest hands I’ve seen of any AFL player (only saw G Williams in his twilight) and is one of the most creative by hand, he’s already a legend of this club. Of course a popular highlight was the goal in the granny, but I’d also note he has the 4th highest rated game since they started measuring player ratings. Only behind Buddy and Le Cras with bags of 12+ and S Johnson in the 186 game with 7 goals and 10 goal assists. He basically should’ve won that 2021 game against Adelaide off his own boot while the rest of the team were down if not for a couple of terrible calls in the last minute (and many others throughout the game). It’s arguably the best game by a midfielder ever. Let this sink in: from the start of 2021 to mid 2023 Oliver played 61 games and polled coaches votes in 51 games. That includes losses. It doesn’t include finals in that period in which he never failed to get 15 contested possessions and was in the best for 4 out of the 5. The start of 2023 is sometime forgotten for how good he was because of what happened after the hammy. He polled coaches votes in 9 of the first 10 games. That includes the game vs Port where he did a serious hammy in the third quarter and (maybe unwisely in retrospect) continued to play the game out. The only game he didn’t poll votes in was the Gather Round game against Essendon where he got 41 touches and 25 contested possessions while copping a heavy tag! I can’t see an argument where any Melbourne player is compared to Oliver in terms of overall output other than Barrassi, Flower and Gawn.