Whispering_Jack

There is no doubt we need succession plans for Neitz and White. We have Dunn, Newton and Garland on our list as developing tall forwards. We need to address White longevity. If I know this you can bet your bottom dollar CAC does.

This is an issue that I think is an important one for the club. I raised it at the Demonland/Demonology sponsorship meeting and while Craig acknowledged it, he wasn't as concerned as I am.

Three years ago, we didn't have a player 30 years and over. We're getting to a stage where we now have several abnd, as DH pointed out, if they all happen to retire at once, we could be in a position whereby we're going to have to make a large number of changes to our list all at once. I think this could expose us somewhat - especially if it happens in a year when the draft pool is not strong. As for ruckmen, we know it takes a long time to develop good ones and therefore the planning needs to be longer term.

In terms of your clock theory, we might fall over the precipice and end up at 3am before we know it.

by Whispering Jack

Australia Day 2007.

It's a beautiful, calm summer's morning as I make my way towards the Trinity Grammar playing fields to take in Melbourne's skills training session.

A little more than four months have elapsed since the Dockers beat the Demons at Subiaco and I reflect on how the team has disappointingly bowed out of each its past three finals campaigns.

Melbourne seems to have developed a habit of peaking a little after mid season, limping into the finals and then faltering without mounting any real challenge to the top AFL teams in September action. This story has by now been well documented.

Which brings to mind an old adage in sport that you're only as good as your last game.

I'm reminded of how Melbourne was playing with confidence and had Fremantle rattled and held a 15-point lead midway through the second quarter of the 2006 Semi Final. Then Chris Connolly made a few changes and the Dockers proceeded to turn the game by running the legs off their visitors who were becalmed and eventually wilted by the warm humid air drifting into Perth from the Indian Ocean.

Freo's midfield had too much pace with Heath Black, Byron Schammer and the Carr brothers all winning plenty of quality possessions. With a few exceptions, the Demons appeared sad and slow and in the end lacked the necessary endurance to run out the full distance of a gruelling finals game. This applied not only to the on ball brigade but to the forwards and backs - they fought hard but for the most part were beaten mentally and physically all over the ground.

That was our last game and it stands as a reality check as I cross the Eastern Freeway and approach the training venue.

This is the time of year when the general feeling at every club is one of optimism looking forward to a new season. You will hear the same story everywhere - the injuries suffered in the previous year are healing, the players are looking fitter than ever, those who have previously been labelled as "potential" are starting to mature and there are a fair number out there who are, as they say in the classics, "training the house down."

But I'm not here looking for the stars at training. What I want to see is something that might signal a change – that things are happening to address the problem of those end of season fadeouts; that Melbourne is taking steps to ensure that it has the physical and mental wherewithal to match it with the best throughout the long grind of an AFL season. This was the major factor that was lacking in 2004, 2005 and 2006 when the team peaked too early!

I'm not particularly into describing training drills but I must say that a lot was going on by the time I arrived. Players in different coloured guernseys were running with their footballs up and down the length of the playing fields and one thing that was clear was the emphasis on running. The rule changes and the latest coaching tactics and strategies have demanded more and more athleticism. It's not enough to just be a footballer these days.

Enter Melbourne's new fitness advisor Bohdan Babijczuk.

Babijczuk has received plaudits as fitness coordinator at Hawthorn (where he was seen as a key component of the Hawks' push to the Preliminary Final of 2001) and with the national men's basketball team. His experience in athletics goes back three decades from competitor to high level coach and he has been used as a consultant at a number of different football clubs.

At Hawthorn, he took Shane Crawford's 800m time down from the 2:20's to well under two minutes and Crawford went on to win a Brownlow Medal fortified by his added speed and endurance. More recently he took Western Jets youngster Bachar Houli under his wing and improved his 20m sprint time from 3.25 seconds to 2.96 seconds within a fortnight by the time of National Draft Camp. Houli was subsequently drafted by the Bombers in the recent National Draft and I understand has since significantly bettered that time at Essendon.

The Babijczuk influence at the club is apparent immediately. Many of the players have significantly changed body shapes, the skinfolds are way down and a few look faster and stronger as well as sleeker. Nathan Jones and Brock McLean stand out. Jones has dropped 7kg to 80kg - a loss of almost 10% of his previous body weight.

"He is a cut above the rest," Jones says of the man who is training footballers at the club to be fitter, faster and stronger than they have ever been. Daniel Bell, who has lost 3kg, talks of feeling much better and having the capacity to get through pre season training pain free under his regimen. Brent Moloney is training solidly and is definitely moving more freely as he relishes the absence of the osteitis pubis that put a premature end to his 2006 season.

A few years ago I spoke with a Hawthorn player who was competing during the summer season at the Glenhuntly athletics track. He was suitably impressed by the fact that Babijczuk had tailored individual fitness regimes for every player at the club aimed at increasing the intensity once things got simple.

The training regimen requires a fair degree of strong discipline from the players and that part is certainly showing out starting at the top. David Neitz is looking more like a rising colt in his mid-twenties than a veteran who has passed his 31st birthday. Babijczuk says that the player whose speed has improved the most is another post 30 year old in 2006 All Australian James McDonald and it looked that way as Junior zipped through a training drill aimed at moving the ball swiftly out of the clearances.

The players flash past and it's difficult to recognise some of them as they sport different hair colourings; they change guernseys regularly and then there are those different body shapes. Nathan Carroll, who kept key Dockers forward Matthew Pavlich well held in that last game at Subiaco, seems to have undergone a complete personality change since he arrived at the club as an unknown rookie from Fremantle a few years ago. After a year in which he must have come tantalisingly close to being an All Australian, he knows now that he belongs in AFL circles. I expect that both he and Jared Rivers will gather further in stature with the benefit of this pre season.

I could go on and on but I'd probably be charged with the same over optimism I complained about earlier and the point is that a football hasn't yet been bounced in true competitive anger.

That will change in the next few weeks as the intra practice games start. Apparently the club is planning one at Moorabbin and another at Telstra Dome in the week before the Nab Cup matches to give the Channel 7 crew a bit of practice for the forthcoming season. There's no truth in the rumour that The Twelfth Man has been pirated away from Foxtel to do the voices of all of Seven's football commentary team as a cost saving measure (although he does do a very speshialllll Bruce McAvaney impression).

If anyone fears that the intensity of athletic training might be harmful to the players, they should think again. Virtually the full squad was on hand at Trinity Grammar with Chris Johnson the only absentee - he was back in Perth to celebrate his 21st birthday. A small group is still in rehab, notably Colin Sylvia (shoulder and OP) and Clint Bartram (ankle) but they are apparently not far away from resuming training. A couple of others like Paul Wheatley and Matty Whelan sat out parts of training but on the whole things were looking good - even when I took off my rose coloured glasses.

There's a lot of interest in the new blood at the club but none of them stood out at this training run. They're all still young and shy and have a way to go although there are some reports that James Frawley might get a run in the NAB Cup. Both he and Colin Garland certainly have awkward kicking styles that nevertheless don't appear to inhibit their accuracy. However, we'll wait and see what they're like under pressure in matches.

Simon Buckley looks ready for a crack at the big time after a year with Sandringham, Shane Neaves has developed a six-pack and will be looked at with interest while Michael Newton will surely be tested in the Nab Cup. My early tip for big improver among the younger brigade is Lynden Dunn - another of Bohdan Babijczuk's projects.

Ultimately however, the players are in the hands of Neale Daniher and his coaching panel. They now have under their control what is most certainly a more athletic group with greater pace and better endurance than that which left 2006 behind them at Subiaco.

But there's a long way to go from a calm and balmy summer's day at Bulleen to what this group might achieve in the months to come when the springtime returns.

If it is the AFL rules that it can seek such information about a player and it is a condition of their contract with a Club then it is as good as.

That may be so but you said ... "If required under law to divulge information to authorities."

In that context the AFL doesn't have any basis under law to obtain the information in the way the police or tax authorities might. As I see it, the only way it can access Betfair and Tabcorp's information is with the prior consent in writing of the players and that most probably would be by way of a standard clause in the player's contract giving such consent. The problem the AFL has set for itself is that there are so many other betting agencies that won't allow information to be given over so they really have to review their processes because the likelihood is that these blokes are stiff (and stupid) enough to have placed their bets with the wrong people.

Not useful? Agreed, it isn't for detail, but it is for strategy.

Where do you think Carlton are on the clock?

Where do you think Adelaide are on the clock?

Where do you think Melbourne are on the clock?

Being somewhat anticlock I can't really answer these questions but let me put it this way.

To my mind, the theory is not sophisticated enough to gauge the complex realties of a sport at an elite level like AFL football. The concept of a clock face is too one dimensional to adequately define the cyclical nature of a particular team's development within such a competition.

The key is the word "cyclical". AFL is more than just a sport; it's big business and, as such, it operates according to the same lines as all other businesses. The clubs that make up the AFL are subject to cyclical fluctuations that are dependent upon several factors, not the least of which is the strength of a particular club's list but there are many others. The premiership clock theory tells us where people think a club should be in terms of the make up of its list based mainly on how the list comprised in terms of the age and experience of the players. The other important factors that come into play in determining the success of a particular team over a season are the physical and mental condition of its players, the coaching tactics and strategies employed, stability within the playing group and the organisation, fixture and travel considerations and, of course, the "luck" factor.

I've therefore come up with a slightly different model - one that's three dimensional. I call it a sphere or more properly, the globe. On my Sporting Globe model I have Carlton situated at a latitude of 29 degrees north and a longitude of 33 degrees east which places the Blues in Egypt about adjacent to the Red Sea. Problem is the said sea hasn't parted for thousands of years so while new president Dick Pratt might have a historical connection with the last group that made it across on foot, I wouldn't be holding my breath.

Melbourne on the other hand is situated a little to the north east having passed latitude 30 north and closing in on 35 east. Problem is that the Demons have been wandering around in circles for more than the allocated forty years and still haven't found their way out of the wilderness into the promised land. Still, there's some reason for hope there.

Adelaide have been ready for a while now but they overshot the mark and missed the Jordan River entirely having passed 33 degrees north and 44 east. By the time the season proper starts I expect them to have crossed a different river altogether - the Tigris - and be smack dab in the middle of Baghdad and although they might put up a bit of a fight, they could be in more than a spot of bother by season's end.

I trust that this gives a clearer picture than the one dimensional clock theory which has been shot down by Paul Roos and his band of men at Sydney. I hear what's been said about Sydney's salary cap limit but if there is a difference between Sydney and the others then it could well be justified given the higher cost of living in Sydney c.f. the other capital cities and Geelong.

I'll remind you again about the Member's Information Night of 2002 (remember when we used to have them?).

Most of us will remember that night for the kerfuffle regarding the club's dealings with Shane Woewodin and Stephen Powell ahem… err certain players. But I remember it for another thing and that was the coach's lengthy dissertation on the "clock".

In particular, one of his conclusions was that the Sydney Swans had passed their window of opportunity and they were now in the early morning hours i.e. the worst spot on the clock while Melbourne was in the late afternoon and moving albeit slowly towards early evening and the dawn of opportunity.

Paul Roos had taken over as "caretaker" coach of the Swans and they were freely admitting that this was a time of "transition", feeling the impact of the retirement of players like Tony Lockett, Paul Kelly, Andrew Dunkley and Wayne Schwass. This, from a Jake Niall report in the Age in early 2003:- DROOPING SWANS FACE THE PAIN OF REBUILDING (sorry the link to the Age is now dead)

"The problem is the team. The Swans have one of the weakest playing lists in the competition. The club, once prone to misguided optimism about its chances, has quickly developed a keen sense of realism. Coach Paul Roos, ever an astute reader of the play, has been quick to adopt the "rebuilding" rhetoric and downplay expectations - a spin repeated on Saturday night when the team fell to the hitherto horrible Hawks."

and

"More worrisome, the bottoming-out process - in terms of the list - might not be complete. Skipper Stuart Maxfield and dual best and fairest Paul Williams are both beyond 30, as are Daryn Cresswell and Jason Ball. The demographics of the list suggest that there will be more acute pain before the draft begins to work."

That grim outlook matched what Neale Daniher had predicted at the MIN a few months earlier.

However, as it happened, the Swans felt no acute pain in the ensuing period. In fact they made the finals every year since the end of 2002 and played off in the past two grand finals for one premiership, their first after 72 long years.

I'm hoping we can follow suit an that our run of outs doesn't go past 43, clock or no clock.

This is where you and I differ.

Melbourne has a young improving list, a proposition I think that you'd support. If Brock McLean and Jarad Rivers were, for some reason, unavailable or not on our list, our position on the clock would not change drastically, particularly if they were replaced by players of a similar age (eg. Tenace and Merritt). What would change is the relative strength of our list compared to other clubs at a similar stage of development (spot on the clock).

This is a complex topic. Graz has shown we have quite a number of players who are "old" (on face value suggesting we are beyond 12.00 o'clock). The next step of course is to analyse how important those "old" players are to your team. I'd contend that Neitz is critical, Ward, Bizzell, Yze and Brown are not.

I'd contend "the clock" is a very useful tool, not necessarily easily understood. Hawthorn and Richmond wasted a couple of years when they misread it, or chose to misread it. We've got our reading about right and decided to act upon it.

All credit to the FD for doing that.

If this is a "complex" topic, the clock doesn't simplify it all. It doesn't have all of the answers - only some of them. As you say, you need to be able to analyse the importance of individuals within a team but if you want success you need to have a balanced team with the right combination of the different types of players. The clock doesn't give us too many answers in this regard.

Here's just one example. How does the clock help us in determining when it became/becomes necessary for Melbourne to actively start searching for an additional ruckman to cover the anticipated loss of Jeff White? This year, last year, next year?

It's arguable that White's use by date is getting very close. He's 195cm, the rules have changed in recent years to his detriment and you have agile giants like Cox running around in opposition teams. Sandilands has creamed him two years running. Mark Jamar hasn't done enough to date to show that he can take the #1 ruck mantle, PJ is a long way off and our only other ruckman is a rookie. There were very few ruck prospects in the 2006 and the best one was snapped up early. We didn't actively trade for a ruckman either. In other words, you could be in the right place on the clock but your team might not have the correct makeup.

On the issue of the strength of your playing list, perception plays a big role here. Looking at our "young improving list of players", I'll nominate one of the younger brigade. Michael Newton. My perception 6 months ago was that he could go on to become a very valuable footballer with some freakish ability. He might still do that but I'm already nowhere near as confident today as I was back then. That's an assessment based not only on reports from one practice match but it's based on what I've seen, heard and read through the pre-season. Time will tell.

On top of the many and varied "micro issues" that make this a complex subject, there's the problem that in any event, we can't even get agreement on what time we've reached on the clock. Where is Melbourne at the moment - 9pm, 10pm, 11pm, midnight, 1am?

That's why I'm not all that convinced about the usefulness of the clock in the overall scheme of things.

The clock is not for measuring success, it is a tool to help understand your list and make appropriate decisions.

At best a tool and I'm not sure how useful a tool it is, given all of the other factors that are in play in developing a successful list (not to mention the effects on list structure of injuries, rule changes, emphasis on athleticsm vs. size/both? etc).

If one or two fall by the wayside because of injury and a few others don't come up to the mark (e.g. Jared Brennan at the Lions - we all expected him to be a champ by now) then the place where you're at on the clock can drastically alter very quickly.

the evidence is from when he worked at other teams.....

Demon2. Your original claim was "Bohden strikes again" so the fact that something happened when he worked at other teams is not evidence that this is a case of Bohden "striking again" at all.

As far as I'm aware, the only team where he was previously associated with a high number of soft tissue injuries was in his last year at Hawthorn. He has worked with the Australian basketballers, in other sports including of course athletics and with other football clubs and individual footballers and I'm not aware of any complaints.

There was no evidence from the time he was at Hawthorn however, that there was a correlation between BB's training methods and the incidence of groin and hamstring injuries. The injuries might have been co-incidental or they might have been a result of the entire training regimen as applied by the football coach who was also replaced at the end of the year. So let's not call what happened when he worked elsewhere "evidence". If we're making that allegation, I think we need to find a lot more proof than that.

I couldn't make it down to the Dome today but have received some reports from the game. I'll leave it to those who attended to report in more detail but from what I've heard there was some reason for disappointment ahead of this week's NAB Cup opener.

For starters, Brock McLean missed the session with a quad injury (looks like he'll be out for two weeks) and Brent Moloney was nursing his groin. With Colin having a limited pre-season, it looks like a case of deja vu for three of the four horsemen at the Dome (at least Belly was on the job - he demolished Juice Newton). Paul Wheatley missed with some aparent injury and we know that TJ has a broken toe. The standard, as reported to me, was just so-so. But here were a few good rays of sunshine and hope coming through the open dome.

Nathan Jones was in sparkling form on the ball and Cameron Bruce was dominant. Matty Bate was very good and Lynden Dunn was impressive.

Ricky Petterd started well but after impressing early, appeared to injure a hamstring.

Brad Miller and Byron Pickett were both quiet. Jeff White ended with a blood nose while Mark Jamar was the pick of the ruckmen.

"Chip" Frawley had an interesting duel with Robbo, but the latter's experience told in the end. Simon Buckley showed good progress over last year's form.

Dennis Commetti was apparently centimetre perfect with his commentary even at this early stage of proceedings and the crowd was a bit less than for Sunday night's A League grand final due to the lack of publicity and general uncertainty as to whether the fans could get it at all (apparently 7's fault, not the MFC's).

Over to the guys who went.

The Herald Sun's front page article today contains material which IMO defames Daniel Ward.

"Goodwin yesterday admitted to betting on AFL matches not involving Adelaide, while it is believed repeat offender Ward included Melbourne victories in multi-sport bets over several codes."

Ward is not a "repeat offender". He admitted in 2003 to having problems with his gambling debts but I don't believe that gambling per se was an offence for AFL footballers or anyone else for that matter.

If what he's done is true, then he might have been stupid, but it's a bit of stretch for the Herald Sun to call him a "repeat offender" and to the extent that this slur could affect the result of the AFL's investigation and any penalty that might be imposed it should be withdrawn forthwith.

We have probably over-emphasised the strong-bodied type and are now trying to re-adjust to get a better balance.

I'm with you Scoop but it appears to me that Collingwood is perhaps adjusting in the wrong direction. Its recruiting emphasis was on talls at the expense of young midfield talent and its midfielders are bulking up when, by and large, they are getting older and are deficient in pace if anything. On top of that, one of the better movers on their forward line (Tarrant) has gone and they look like going with Rocca and Cloke as their taller forwards (not much movement there). Medhurst isn't quick either.

I like the set ups that the last two grand finallists have had a lot better and if we're moving in their direction then well and good.

And BTW, the Brisbane teams that won 3 on end weren't just power teams, they had plenty of run as well - particularly in their midfield.

With the season fast approaching, the Herald Sun seems to have ramped up its beefcake section and has a feature today with Nathan Buckley, Paul Licuria and Brodie Holland all showing off their muscled up torsos.

The funny thing is that I thought this year's go was all about producing slender, light bodies with the aim of better handling the extra speed of the game. It certainly appears to be the case at Melbourne where BB has them all trimmed down and ready for a more running type of game.

Am I missing something?

A bag of fruit that is pure gold. ha ha

I don't want to be a party pooper here but I don't think we're supposed to be encouraging any gambling or betting or anything like that so let's just say that all of the above are only hypotheticals.

ok cool

We will still have match reports (although I'm not a big fan of the Nab Cup myself) and other features in the interim before Round 1 of the real stuff as usual and these will be posted on the message board.

I find Bode puzzling. He came to the club as rated to be picked in the draft (reasonably early...30s?) and with a rep as a state level 200m runner. He loooked hopeless in the NAB cup last year, making it understandable why he was overlooked. After a long season he makes a bit of progress and gets some gigs in the Sandy ones toward year's end (like Buckley). I then read he runs like a crab and later is in BB's project group along with Dunn et al to improve their running techniques and ultimately speed and mobility. It's quite odd.

Nevertheless he's got another year to develop and improve so good luck to him. The rookie list is giving him the time he obviously needs.... he's certainly got his work cut out for him.

That got me last year too because I've seen plenty of athletes and particularly 100 and 200m sprinters and Bode didn't look like one on the football field last year. I don't know if he had a problem like OP but if he did that might be the explanation.

Long time reader... Love the site.

Just curious as to how Daniel Bell played? He's one of my favourite players. There hasn't been much said about him in the pre season.

Also does he train with the midfielders or defenders? I think his best position would be in the middle.

Thanks and go Dees!

I didn't go to Moorabbin this afternoon because like many of you, I actually work for a living. However, I've just been at a meeting also attended by Redleg and had a chat with him about the "match simulation session" (obviously the influence of Grant Thomas remains all pervasive down there at Moorabbin ). Anyhow, I believe that his comment about Belly is that "he tackled ferociously" which is what you like to hear about someone coming off half back.

Hopefully, Redleg, Scoop Junior or one of the others will come on later to expand on that but FWIW I think Belly's in for a good season. I spoke with him briefly at training on Australia Day at Trinity Grammar and he was full of praise for the training regimen he'd undergone thus far and the fact that, as a result, he was getting through training without feeling in pain which is the opposite of what was happening this time last year.

And the word on TJ is that he has anything from a "niggle" to a broken toe.

There's a report on melbournefc.com.au about how Neale Daniher saw proceedings and his objectives for the forthcoming Nab Cup.

BIG RED SIGNING IN:

I am assuming a "match simulation session" is now the new fandangled term for praccy match. If that is the case we are playing at Moorabin today at 3pm. Shame about the lack of notice:(

I believe that regulars Redleg and Scoop Junior have gone down to Moorabbin and will provide a comprehensive report at some stage of the day.

Madness alright

ATM it's all the same no matter what team you're talking about.

I'll be glad when the hype ends and the real stuff starts in Round 1 at the end of March. It can't come soon enough.

Well, it's definitely next Friday night - 9th February 2007.

I can't believe it - football less than a week away!

That wasn't real football it was a farce.

There were two teams out there but only one of them was ready to play. The All Stars were far too undermanned in the ruck and key positions. The farcical withdrawls of Adam Goodes, Michael O'Loughlin, Lance Franklin and probably one or two others has effectively killed off what could have been a great concept. Franklin withdrew from the All Stars ostensibly because he had a knee injury but then turned up playing for Hawthorn in a practice match yesterday. Will the AFL take any action over this? It's highly unlikely and that's what makes these games such a joke.

State of Origin football was killed off because the star players from certain clubs didn't want to take part, preferring to look after their own and their clubs' interests. That's fine but they shouldn't then cry over spilt milk when the concept dies an inevitable death whether that be Internationl Rules, All Stars or State of Origin.

this post just dropped off page one...

will this be tolerated ??

it shall not (be tolerated)...

come on, whispering jack...

and lesser mortals...

come to bloody wang and we will show you a good time !!

Rollo! I couldn't make it to Wangaratta but I'm waiting with bated breath for your report. What's happening over there man?

Well Travis is magical

Brad Hodge the Australian Cricketer looks like Brad Hodge the MFC supplementary list player of the early to mid 90's.

You are a marvel Jack. How do you turn an ordinary summer training session into a sporting event worthy of such prose? Demonland is truly very fortunate to have you.

Thanks for that Redleg.

To explain, I was really writing about something more than just "an ordinary training session" - it was more a case of writing about something that's concerned us for a few years now and that is the way the team hasn't been able to sustain itself after reaching a position from which a decent challenge for the premiership could be mounted. What is it going to take to overcome that and get us into the top echelon?

I'm hopeful that the measures taken by the club address the problem but I guess we won't know the answer for a while yet.

In the meantime, I can tell you that the exercise of revisiting the defeat at Subiaco was probably more painful in January than it was in September last year. I can't get over the way we were reeled in so easily after getting that two and a half goal lead and the way the Dockers dominated us for the next thirty minutes of football. If you are going to overcome that then you can't have any ordinary summer training sessions on the agenda. It's all hard work from here on in.

I wouldnt bother waiting uo to watch it

It was a 1 minute snippet, with the standard cliches from Bruce. Maybe 10 seconds of training vision, if that

I'm happy with 10 seconds of training vision and a 1 minute snippet. To get more time, your club needs to be falling apart at the seams.

Yeah, I'm not sure why Essendon got a gig. Unless it's something Sheedy organised. He has been a pretty big supporter of aboriginals in football for years now.

Looks like if Alwyn Davey hasn't been picked for the All-Stars, he'll line up for the Bombers.

Be great if both Davey boys lined up on each other on a wing or something.

Miller looks far more comfortable at CHF but there are going to be times when he'll have to go down back. I'm amazed at how he always seems to be able to handle Barry Hall so well but struggles against some lesser forwards when in defence.

As for Lynden Dunn, I think he'll become a permanent feature in the lineup but it could be anywhere from the wing to HFF and even CHF. The interesting thing will be what happens if Michael Newton also steps up this year.