Everything posted by WheeloRatings
- Stats File - 2025 edition
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POSTGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
That's all stoppages.
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Stats File - 2025 edition
The AFL average for converting first possession into a clearance is 75% this season. Melbourne wins the clearance just 65% of the time (18th) they get first hands on the ball (2024: 72% - 18th) Melbourne's opponents are at 85% - also 18th (2024: 79% - 18th) Melbourne was 12th for both in 2021 so we weren't clean in this area even then.
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POSTGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
The AFL average for converting first possession into a clearance is 75% this season. Melbourne wins the clearance just 65% of the time (18th) they get first hands on the ball (2024: 72% - 18th) Melbourne's opponents are at 85% - also 18th (2024: 79% - 18th) Melbourne was 12th for both in 2021 so we weren't clean in this area even then.
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Stats File - 2025 edition
The pressure ratings are only accessible in the Herald Sun the day after a match. I will aim to do the initial stats files post on the day of the game (except for night games) and then post the pressure ratings the following day. And here they are. Also, I haven't worked out if/how you can embed tables with different formatting with the new version of the site. PressureTeam pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 173 154 +19 2 178 179 -1 3 164 181 -17 4 180 187 -7 Match 174 175 -1 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 25 63 52.7 Jack Viney 20 47 41.0 Ed Langdon 19 40 37.3 Tom Sparrow 16 39 40.7 Harvey Langford 15 34 19.5 Christian Salem 13 33 29.3 Christian Petracca 13 32 29.0 Kade Chandler 15 31 40.3 Aidan Johnson 11 31 37.0 Harrison Petty 11 27 16.7 Trent Rivers 13 26 28.3 Tom McDonald 12 25 18.3 Jack Henderson 13 24 30.0 Bayley Fritsch 8 23 21.0 Jake Bowey 13 22 28.7 Harry Sharp 14 22 22.3 Max Gawn 8 21 18.3 Blake Howes 10 20 17.3 Jacob van Rooyen 8 19 23.0 Jack Billings 6 16 16.0 Jake Melksham 4 12 12.0 Steven May 1 1 1.0 Xavier Lindsay 0 0 36.0 Source: Herald Sun
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POSTGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
- Stats File - 2025 edition
- Stats File - 2025 edition
Melbourne v Gold Coast (Round 3, 2025)https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250303 Key Team StatsStat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency Disposal Efficiency 75.1 74.2 +0.8 Kicking Efficiency 70.9 68.9 +2.0 Territory/Attack Inside 50s 40 65 -25 Shots At Goal 24 33 -9 Shots Per Inside 50 60.0 50.8 +9.2 Marks Inside 50 9 17 -8 Contest Contested Possessions 126 144 -18 Ground Ball Gets 83 95 -12 Post Clearance Contested Possessions 83 92 -9 Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets 62 63 -1 Centre Clearances 8 16 -8 Stoppage Clearances 16 24 -8 Contested Marks 10 10 +0 Defense Intercepts 69 61 +8 Intercept Marks 15 14 +1 Tackles 52 52 +0 Tackles Inside 50 4 12 -8 Def One On One Loss % 60.0 16.7 +43.3 Ruck Hitouts 35 29 +6 Hitouts To Advantage 13 14 -1 Player Ratings Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Match Jake Bowey 7.7 2.7 2.4 5.3 18.1 Trent Rivers 3.2 2.1 5.6 3.9 14.8 Harvey Langford 2.5 3.9 6.4 1.8 14.7 Christian Petracca 4.2 2.2 4.6 3.4 14.4 Harry Sharp 1.2 0.5 6.7 3.5 11.9 Tom McDonald 1.7 9.2 −1.3 2.1 11.6 Jack Viney 3.3 0.9 2.3 3.6 10.1 Ed Langdon 4.0 3.8 2.4 0.0 10.1 Jacob van Rooyen −0.4 1.9 1.5 6.3 9.3 Kade Chandler 0.3 1.0 4.0 3.0 8.3 Jack Billings 3.4 0.7 0.7 2.1 7.0 Max Gawn 0.7 0.6 3.5 2.0 6.7 Harrison Petty 1.2 0.6 3.0 1.3 6.1 Christian Salem 1.0 2.3 2.3 0.3 5.9 Clayton Oliver −0.5 0.5 2.1 3.9 5.9 Tom Sparrow 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.6 4.9 Blake Howes 3.7 1.7 −0.6 0.0 4.8 Jake Melksham −1.1 2.3 2.7 −0.6 3.3 Jack Henderson −0.2 1.7 −1.1 2.0 2.3 Bayley Fritsch 4.3 −3.0 −1.9 1.1 0.4 Aidan Johnson 1.0 0.6 −0.6 −0.6 0.4 Xavier Lindsay 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Steven May −1.5 0.6 −0.7 −1.0 −2.7 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 2 4 -2 Loose Ball Get 20 16 +4 Contested Mark 2 5 -3 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 0 +1 Gather From Hitout 2 3 -1 Contested Knock On 1 3 -2 Free For 3 6 -3 Total 31 37 -6 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 1 2 -1 Loose Ball Get 4 7 -3 Contested Mark 1 1 0 Ruck Hard Ball Get 2 0 +2 Gather From Hitout 1 0 +1 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 1 3 -2 Total 10 14 -4 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 9 15 -6 Loose Ball Get 53 48 +5 Contested Mark 10 10 0 Contested Knock On 4 3 +1 Free For 7 16 -9 Total 83 92 -9 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 4 7 -3 Loose Ball Get 17 25 -8 Ruck Hard Ball Get 6 1 +5 Gather From Hitout 13 12 +1 Contested Knock On 0 2 -2 Free For 3 5 -2 Total 43 52 -9 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 65.3 62 0% Gold Coast 117.1 120 100% +51.8 +58 +6.2 Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 23 8.10 58 34.8% 64.3 −6.3 2.80 −0.27 Gold Coast 33 18.12 120 54.5% 117.1 +2.9 3.55 +0.09 General Play Melbourne 13 5.5 35 38.5% 37.9 −2.9 2.92 −0.23 Gold Coast 12 7.4 46 58.3% 36.2 +9.8 3.01 +0.82 Set Position Melbourne 10 3.5 23 30.0% 26.3 −3.3 2.63 −0.33 Gold Coast 21 11.8 74 52.4% 80.9 −6.9 3.85 −0.33 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. https://x.com/andrew_whelan/status/1905864006717620640 Territory (time in zones)Region Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Match Season Half Forward 48% 36% 39% 43% 42% 49% Defensive 52% 64% 61% 57% 58% 51% Region Forward 50 25% 16% 16% 15% 18% 23% Attacking Midfield 24% 19% 23% 28% 23% 26% Defensive Midfield 24% 34% 27% 25% 27% 24% Defensive 50 28% 31% 34% 31% 31% 27% Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Score SourcesSummary Score Source Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.2 8 1.0 6 +2 Centre Bounce 0.2 2 4.2 26 -24 Stoppage (Other) 3.3 21 5.0 30 -9 Turnover 4.7 31 8.10 58 -27 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 8 4.7 6 6.0 Centre Bounce 2 14.0 26 25.3 Stoppage (Other) 21 14.3 30 22.0 Turnover 31 34.3 58 54.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Score Source Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 2 14.0 26 25.3 Kick-in D50 8 4.7 6 6.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 2.0 0 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 6 2.3 Stoppage (Other) Wing 13 11.0 6 8.3 Stoppage (Other) F50 2 1.3 18 9.3 Turnover D50 4 3.7 14 13.0 Turnover Centre 0 3.0 14 11.3 Turnover Wing 26 22.3 17 20.0 Turnover F50 1 5.3 13 9.7 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 18 10.3 20 21.0 Centre 2 17.0 46 39.0 Wing 39 33.3 23 28.3 F50 3 6.7 31 19.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 18 10.3 20 21.0 Defensive midfield 13 9.7 13 11.3 Centre bounce 2 14.0 26 25.3 Attacking midfield 26 26.7 30 30.7 Forward 50 3 6.7 31 19.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 31 20.0 33 32.3 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2025 % 2024 % Max Gawn 22 76% 84.9% 85.0% Clayton Oliver 21 72% 72.1% 70.7% Jack Viney 21 72% 68.6% 69.1% Harvey Langford 16 55% 32.7% Christian Petracca 15 52% 59.3% 55.8% Tom Sparrow 12 41% 41.9% 37.7% Aidan Johnson 4 14% 10.9% Jacob van Rooyen 3 10% 8.1% 17.8% Ed Langdon 1 3% 18.6% 0.7% Trent Rivers 1 3% 10.5% 29.9% Kade Chandler 0 0% 8.1% 0.0% Christian Salem 0 0% 0.0% 12.3% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 7.5% Charlie Spargo 0.0% 4.2% Daniel Turner 0.0% 0.3% Ruck Contests and HitoutsRuck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2025 % 2024 % Max Gawn 65 80% 80.5% 81.1% Aidan Johnson 11 14% 19.7% Jacob van Rooyen 5 6% 5.7% 17.6% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 7.9% Daniel Turner 0.0% 3.1% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2025) To Adv. % (2024) Max Gawn 65 30 11 34.0% 27.9% Aidan Johnson 11 5 2 30.0% Jacob van Rooyen 5 0 0 0.0% 24.7% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 24.4% Daniel Turner 50.4% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Jarrod Witts 66 25 12 Ethan Read 15 4 2- Stats File - 2025 edition
Melbourne v North Melbourne (Round 2, 2025) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250207 Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 186 170 +16 2 169 177 -8 3 171 182 -11 4 162 174 -12 Match 172 176 -4 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Xavier Lindsay 26 65 54.0 Kade Chandler 23 47 45.0 Trent Rivers 18 39 29.5 Jack Viney 18 38 38.0 Clayton Oliver 18 35 47.5 Jack Henderson 12 35 33.0 Tom Sparrow 15 32 41.5 Christian Salem 15 30 27.5 Ed Langdon 16 29 36.0 Jake Bowey 14 29 32.0 Daniel Turner 12 27 27.0 Christian Petracca 13 26 27.5 Harry Sharp 9 23 22.5 Blake Howes 8 23 16.0 Tom McDonald 14 22 15.0 Charlie Spargo 9 21 21.0 Jacob van Rooyen 7 20 25.0 Max Gawn 5 14 17.0 Taj Woewodin 6 13 13.0 Jake Lever 6 12 18.5 Bayley Fritsch 6 11 20.0 Harrison Petty 3 6 11.5 Matthew Jefferson 2 2 14.5 Source: Herald Sun- Stats File - 2025 edition
- POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs North Melbourne
- Stats File - 2025 edition
Melbourne v North Melbourne (Round 2, 2025) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250207 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency Disposal Efficiency 72.6 79.2 -6.5 Kicking Efficiency 67.4 74.6 -7.2 Territory/Attack Inside 50s 56 53 +3 Shots At Goal 26 29 -3 Shots Per Inside 50 46.4 54.7 -8.3 Marks Inside 50 11 12 -1 Contest Contested Possessions 120 139 -19 Ground Ball Gets 83 89 -6 Post Clearance Contested Possessions 79 85 -6 Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets 57 57 +0 Centre Clearances 13 15 -2 Stoppage Clearances 17 27 -10 Contested Marks 7 15 -8 Defense Intercepts 70 65 +5 Intercept Marks 15 17 -2 Tackles 47 49 -2 Tackles Inside 50 11 7 +4 Def One On One Loss % 40.0 16.7 +23.3 Ruck Hitouts 30 32 -2 Hitouts To Advantage 9 12 -3 Player Ratings Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Match Clayton Oliver 9.8 3.4 5.4 1.2 19.9 Kade Chandler 4.3 8.4 1.3 5.4 19.5 Christian Salem 5.5 1.8 3.3 4.6 15.3 Jake Bowey 3.9 3.5 2.2 3.0 12.5 Tom Sparrow 1.9 6.0 1.5 2.4 11.7 Tom McDonald 2.3 1.4 6.0 1.7 11.4 Max Gawn 1.4 3.6 5.2 1.0 11.2 Jack Viney 4.5 −0.1 4.7 1.2 10.3 Harrison Petty 2.9 −0.8 7.3 −0.6 8.8 Xavier Lindsay 3.0 1.5 0.8 2.5 7.8 Taj Woewodin 0.0 1.4 3.2 2.8 7.4 Ed Langdon 2.5 2.7 2.0 −0.6 6.6 Jake Lever 0.6 2.1 2.1 0.2 5.1 Blake Howes 0.4 2.5 2.2 0.0 5.0 Jacob van Rooyen 3.6 0.5 1.4 −1.2 4.3 Trent Rivers 0.0 0.4 0.6 3.0 4.0 Daniel Turner 0.0 0.3 3.1 0.6 4.0 Harry Sharp 2.1 −0.8 2.0 0.1 3.4 Jack Henderson 3.3 0.3 −0.2 0.0 3.4 Charlie Spargo 1.7 −0.5 −1.3 2.9 2.8 Christian Petracca −1.0 1.5 2.4 −0.6 2.3 Bayley Fritsch 1.2 −0.4 1.0 0.3 2.1 Matthew Jefferson 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 3 8 -5 Loose Ball Get 11 10 +1 Contested Mark 1 5 -4 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 1 -1 Gather From Hitout 0 1 -1 Contested Knock On 2 0 +2 Free For 3 4 -1 Total 20 29 -9 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 5 1 +4 Loose Ball Get 9 15 -6 Contested Mark 2 2 0 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 1 0 Gather From Hitout 2 1 +1 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 6 3 +3 Total 25 24 +1 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 9 14 -5 Loose Ball Get 48 43 +5 Contested Mark 7 15 -8 Contested Knock On 2 3 -1 Free For 13 10 +3 Total 79 85 -6 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 7 7 0 Loose Ball Get 19 25 -6 Ruck Hard Ball Get 3 5 -2 Gather From Hitout 7 12 -5 Contested Knock On 1 1 0 Free For 4 4 0 Total 41 54 -13 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 82.7 66 6% North Melbourne 111.1 125 94% +28.4 +59 +30.6 Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 26 9.12 66 34.6% 82.7 −16.7 3.18 −0.64 North Melbourne 29 19.8 122 65.5% 109.1 +12.9 3.76 +0.45 General Play Melbourne 10 1.4 10 10.0% 25.0 −15.0 2.50 −1.50 North Melbourne 12 7.4 46 58.3% 38.9 +7.1 3.24 +0.60 Set Position Melbourne 16 8.8 56 50.0% 57.7 −1.7 3.61 −0.11 North Melbourne 17 12.4 76 70.6% 70.2 +5.8 4.13 +0.34 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Territory (time in zones) Region Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Match Season Half Forward 58% 51% 67% 41% 54% 53% Defensive 42% 49% 33% 59% 46% 47% Region Forward 50 29% 25% 33% 20% 27% 25% Attacking Midfield 30% 26% 34% 21% 28% 28% Defensive Midfield 19% 25% 16% 26% 21% 23% Defensive 50 23% 25% 17% 33% 25% 25% Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Score Sources Summary Score Source Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0 6 1.0 6 +0 Centre Bounce 2.2 14 7.1 43 -29 Stoppage (Other) 0.3 3 2.4 16 -13 Turnover 6.7 43 9.6 60 -17 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 3.0 6 6.0 Centre Bounce 14 20.0 43 25.0 Stoppage (Other) 3 11.0 16 18.0 Turnover 43 36.0 60 52.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by North Melbourne. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Score Source Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 14 20.0 43 25.0 Kick-in D50 6 3.0 6 6.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.0 6 3.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 1 0.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 2 10.0 6 9.5 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 1.0 3 5.0 Turnover D50 6 3.5 18 12.5 Turnover Centre 9 4.5 13 10.0 Turnover Wing 20 20.5 21 21.5 Turnover F50 8 7.5 8 8.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 12 6.5 30 21.5 Centre 23 24.5 57 35.5 Wing 22 30.5 27 31.0 F50 9 8.5 11 13.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 12 6.5 30 21.5 Defensive midfield 10 8.0 8 10.5 Centre bounce 14 20.0 43 25.0 Attacking midfield 21 27.0 33 31.0 Forward 50 9 8.5 11 13.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by North Melbourne. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 22 14.5 38 32.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by North Melbourne. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2025 % 2024 % Max Gawn 27 87% 89.5% 85.0% Clayton Oliver 22 71% 71.9% 70.7% Jack Viney 20 65% 66.7% 69.1% Christian Petracca 15 48% 63.2% 55.8% Tom Sparrow 15 48% 42.1% 37.7% Ed Langdon 14 45% 26.3% 0.7% Kade Chandler 7 23% 12.3% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 4 13% 7.0% 17.8% Trent Rivers 0 0% 14.0% 29.9% Charlie Spargo 0 0% 0.0% 4.2% Christian Salem 0 0% 0.0% 12.3% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.0% 0.3% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 7.5% Aidan Johnson 7.7% Harvey Langford 7.7% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2025 % 2024 % Max Gawn 68 87% 80.6% 81.1% Jacob van Rooyen 10 13% 5.6% 17.6% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.0% 3.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 7.9% Aidan Johnson 24.5% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2025) To Adv. % (2024) Max Gawn 68 27 9 32.9% 27.9% Jacob van Rooyen 10 3 0 0.0% 24.7% Daniel Turner 0 0 0 50.4% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 24.4% Aidan Johnson 20.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Tristan Xerri 68 29 12 Jack Darling 10 3 0- Stats File - 2025 edition
- POSTGAME: Rd 01 vs GWS
Here are the pressure numbers from the game. Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 180 184 -4 2 193 177 +16 3 192 201 -9 4 191 203 -12 Match 189 190 -1 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 27 60 60.0 Tom Sparrow 21 51 51.0 Kade Chandler 16 43 43.0 Aidan Johnson 17 43 43.0 Xavier Lindsay 14 43 43.0 Ed Langdon 19 43 43.0 Jack Viney 20 38 38.0 Jake Bowey 15 35 35.0 Jack Henderson 13 31 31.0 Jacob van Rooyen 14 30 30.0 Bayley Fritsch 13 29 29.0 Christian Petracca 10 29 29.0 Matthew Jefferson 10 27 27.0 Christian Salem 10 25 25.0 Jake Lever 10 25 25.0 Harry Sharp 12 22 22.0 Trent Rivers 11 20 20.0 Max Gawn 8 20 20.0 Harrison Petty 7 17 17.0 Caleb Windsor 6 10 10.0 Blake Howes 7 9 9.0 Tom McDonald 4 8 8.0 Harvey Langford 3 5 5.0 Source: Herald Sun- POSTGAME: Rd 01 vs GWS
Here is an update of the pre-/post-clearance numbers. Attn @binman Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency Disposal Efficiency 69.7 70.0 -0.2 Kicking Efficiency 59.9 59.6 +0.3 Territory/Attack Inside 50s 56 52 +4 Shots At Goal 29 24 +5 Shots Per Inside 50 51.8 46.2 +5.6 Marks Inside 50 5 7 -2 Contest Contested Possessions 149 133 +16 Ground Ball Gets 96 97 -1 Post Clearance Contested Possessions 92 82 +10 Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets 61 65 -4 Centre Clearances 12 12 +0 Stoppage Clearances 24 36 -12 Contested Marks 7 5 +2 Defense Intercepts 77 72 +5 Intercept Marks 17 10 +7 Tackles 60 71 -11 Tackles Inside 50 9 8 +1 Def One On One Loss % 22.2 16.7 +5.6 Ruck Hitouts 51 26 +25 Hitouts To Advantage 16 7 +9 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 6 4 +2 Loose Ball Get 11 16 -5 Contested Mark 1 2 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 1 -1 Gather From Hitout 3 2 +1 Contested Knock On 4 0 +4 Free For 3 1 +2 Total 28 26 +2 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 4 4 0 Loose Ball Get 18 19 -1 Contested Mark 2 0 +2 Contested Knock On 1 4 -3 Free For 2 1 +1 Total 27 28 -1 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 14 9 +5 Loose Ball Get 47 56 -9 Contested Mark 7 5 +2 Contested Knock On 9 5 +4 Free For 15 7 +8 Total 92 82 +10 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 8 6 +2 Loose Ball Get 27 26 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 3 1 +2 Gather From Hitout 12 7 +5 Contested Knock On 2 3 -1 Free For 5 8 -3 Total 57 51 +6- POSTGAME: Rd 01 vs GWS
- POSTGAME: Rd 01 vs GWS
Here is my Stats Files post: Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney (Round 1, 2025) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250108 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency Disposal Efficiency 69.7 70.0 -0.2 Kicking Efficiency 59.9 59.6 +0.3 Territory/Attack Inside 50s 56 52 +4 Shots At Goal 29 24 +5 Shots Per Inside 50 51.8 46.2 +5.6 Marks Inside 50 5 7 -2 Contest Contested Possessions 149 133 +16 Ground Ball Gets 96 97 -1 Post Clearance Contested Possessions 59 55 +4 Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets 37 45 -8 Centre Clearances 12 12 +0 Stoppage Clearances 24 36 -12 Contested Marks 7 5 +2 Defense Intercepts 77 72 +5 Intercept Marks 17 10 +7 Tackles 60 71 -11 Tackles Inside 50 9 8 +1 Def One On One Loss % 22.2 16.7 +5.6 Ruck Hitouts 51 26 +25 Hitouts To Advantage 16 7 +9 Player Ratings Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Match Max Gawn 4.7 6.2 6.9 1.4 19.2 Christian Petracca 3.3 9.8 2.1 1.5 16.8 Tom McDonald 5.6 2.4 3.7 4.7 16.4 Tom Sparrow 0.3 1.9 9.0 3.1 14.3 Jake Lever 3.6 2.5 5.6 1.5 13.1 Harrison Petty 3.1 6.1 2.0 1.7 12.9 Kade Chandler 0.5 6.7 2.5 2.5 12.2 Jake Bowey 2.3 2.7 4.3 2.5 11.8 Xavier Lindsay 1.9 3.4 1.5 4.2 11.0 Caleb Windsor 0.9 1.9 5.6 1.8 10.2 Jack Henderson 3.9 3.1 1.6 1.4 10.1 Ed Langdon 5.5 0.3 1.5 2.4 9.7 Christian Salem 4.9 −0.1 2.4 2.2 9.4 Clayton Oliver 2.2 0.8 4.4 1.4 8.9 Aidan Johnson 1.0 −0.5 8.6 −0.5 8.6 Jacob van Rooyen 0.8 1.1 3.4 2.8 8.1 Matthew Jefferson 2.6 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.4 Jack Viney 5.5 3.1 0.5 −2.8 6.2 Trent Rivers 2.5 1.1 0.8 1.1 5.5 Bayley Fritsch 0.8 −1.8 3.5 1.9 4.4 Harry Sharp 0.7 2.5 −0.4 1.6 4.4 Blake Howes 2.6 −1.1 2.1 0.0 3.6 Harvey Langford 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 6 4 +2 Loose Ball Get 11 16 -5 Contested Mark 1 2 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 1 -1 Gather From Hitout 3 2 +1 Contested Knock On 4 0 +4 Free For 3 1 +2 Total 28 26 +2 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 4 4 0 Loose Ball Get 18 19 -1 Contested Mark 2 0 +2 Contested Knock On 1 4 -3 Free For 2 1 +1 Total 27 28 -1 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 8 5 +3 Loose Ball Get 29 40 -11 Contested Mark 3 2 +1 Contested Knock On 4 3 +1 Free For 15 5 +10 Total 59 55 +4 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 14 10 +4 Loose Ball Get 45 42 +3 Contested Mark 4 3 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 3 1 +2 Gather From Hitout 12 7 +5 Contested Knock On 7 5 +2 Free For 5 10 -5 Total 90 78 +12 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 81.8 74 67% +7.9 Greater Western Sydney 73.9 77 33% +3 +10.9 Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 29 11.6 72 37.9% 81.8 −9.8 2.82 −0.34 Greater Western Sydney 24 11.8 74 45.8% 72.9 +1.1 3.04 +0.04 General Play Melbourne 18 10.2 62 55.6% 54.1 +7.9 3.00 +0.44 Greater Western Sydney 15 6.5 41 40.0% 40.4 +0.6 2.70 +0.04 Set Position Melbourne 11 1.4 10 9.1% 27.8 −17.8 2.52 −1.61 Greater Western Sydney 9 5.3 33 55.6% 32.5 +0.5 3.61 +0.06 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Territory (time in zones) Region Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Match Season Half Forward 53% 48% 61% 42% 51% 51% Defensive 47% 52% 39% 58% 49% 49% Region Forward 50 22% 18% 32% 22% 23% 23% Attacking Midfield 31% 30% 30% 21% 28% 28% Defensive Midfield 25% 24% 19% 28% 24% 24% Defensive 50 22% 28% 19% 30% 25% 25% Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Score Sources Summary Score Source Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0 0 1.0 6 -6 Centre Bounce 4.2 26 1.1 7 +19 Stoppage (Other) 3.1 19 3.2 20 -1 Turnover 4.5 29 6.8 44 -15 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 0.0 6 6.0 Centre Bounce 26 26.0 7 7.0 Stoppage (Other) 19 19.0 20 20.0 Turnover 29 29.0 44 44.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Score Source Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 26 26.0 7 7.0 Kick-in D50 0 0.0 6 6.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 18 18.0 13 13.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 1.0 7 7.0 Turnover D50 1 1.0 7 7.0 Turnover Centre 0 0.0 7 7.0 Turnover Wing 21 21.0 22 22.0 Turnover F50 7 7.0 8 8.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 1 1.0 13 13.0 Centre 26 26.0 14 14.0 Wing 39 39.0 35 35.0 F50 8 8.0 15 15.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 1 1.0 13 13.0 Defensive midfield 6 6.0 13 13.0 Centre bounce 26 26.0 7 7.0 Attacking midfield 33 33.0 29 29.0 Forward 50 8 8.0 15 15.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 7 7.0 26 26.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2025 % 2024 % Max Gawn 24 92% 92.3% 85.0% Christian Petracca 21 81% 80.8% 55.8% Clayton Oliver 19 73% 73.1% 70.7% Jack Viney 18 69% 69.2% 69.1% Tom Sparrow 9 35% 34.6% 37.7% Trent Rivers 8 31% 30.8% 29.9% Aidan Johnson 2 8% 7.7% Harvey Langford 2 8% 7.7% Ed Langdon 1 4% 3.8% 0.7% Christian Salem 0 0% 0.0% 12.3% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 7.5% Jacob van Rooyen 0 0% 0.0% 17.8% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2025 % 2024 % Max Gawn 77 75% 75.5% 81.1% Aidan Johnson 25 25% 24.5% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 7.9% Jacob van Rooyen 0 0% 0.0% 17.6% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2025) To Adv. % (2024) Max Gawn 77 46 15 32.6% 27.9% Aidan Johnson 25 5 1 20.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 24.4% Jacob van Rooyen 0 0 0 24.7% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Lachlan Keeffe 75 14 4 Callum M. Brown 27 12 3- Forward line questions
You are correct re shot difficulty. Melbourne's shot rating last season was 7th best, but average expected score per shot (i.e. difficulty) was 16th. Based on expected score, Melbourne's "expected wins" was 10.0 so we outperformed expectation (in relation to expected scores). Forgive the wide table, but here is a dump of all the key xscore data for Melbourne last season. We won three games where we lost on xscore (Rounds 3, 15, 18), and we only lost one game where we won on xscore (Round 9). Rnd Opposition For Against xWins Result Margin xMargin Score xScore +/- Score xScore +/- 0 Sydney 64 65.5 −1.5 86 82.3 3.7 16.8% Loss -22 −16.8 1 Western Bulldogs 109 85.5 23.5 64 68.8 −4.8 82.5% Win 45 16.7 2 Hawthorn 93 78.0 15.0 38 47.0 −9.0 97.8% Win 55 31.0 3 Port Adelaide 96 60.7 35.3 89 91.7 −2.7 3.5% Win 7 −31.0 4 Adelaide 78 84.7 −6.7 63 78.7 −15.7 63.3% Win 15 6.0 5 Brisbane 60 60.5 −0.5 82 83.2 −1.2 7.0% Loss -22 −22.7 7 Richmond 85 75.5 9.5 42 57.1 −15.1 88.0% Win 43 18.4 8 Geelong 74 83.7 −9.7 66 61.3 4.7 89.5% Win 8 22.4 9 Carlton 76 77.7 −1.7 77 53.8 23.2 94.4% Loss -1 23.9 10 West Coast 70 64.7 5.3 105 104.8 0.2 1.1% Loss -35 −40.1 11 St Kilda 100 100.2 −0.2 62 80.6 −18.6 88.2% Win 38 19.6 12 Fremantle 49 56.8 −7.8 141 117.5 23.5 0.0% Loss -92 −60.7 13 Collingwood 51 66.1 −15.1 89 70.5 18.5 39.7% Loss -38 −4.5 15 North Melbourne 70 55.3 14.7 67 62.0 5.0 31.0% Win 3 −6.7 16 Brisbane 81 80.6 0.4 86 88.9 −2.9 32.3% Loss -5 −8.3 17 West Coast 112 102.7 9.3 58 65.2 −7.2 99.1% Win 54 37.5 18 Essendon 84 69.2 14.8 67 75.5 −8.5 34.2% Win 17 −6.3 19 Fremantle 66 59.7 6.3 116 123.7 −7.7 0.0% Loss -50 −64.0 20 Greater Western Sydney 83 68.1 14.9 85 80.5 4.5 21.1% Loss -2 −12.4 21 Western Bulldogs 59 59.5 −0.5 110 132.6 −22.6 0.0% Loss -51 −73.0 22 Port Adelaide 51 62.8 −11.8 53 79.3 −26.3 15.7% Loss -2 −16.5 23 Gold Coast 117 103.4 13.6 63 61.0 2.0 99.5% Win 54 42.3 24 Collingwood 57 60.1 −3.1 103 114.8 −11.8 0.1% Loss -46 −54.7- Forward line questions
Pleasure! No, unfortunately I only have these stats since the start of 2021.- Forward line questions
@Redleg_Knowledge We certainly take a higher proportion of shots from the pockets than the corridor. Over the last four seasons, of all Melbourne's shots, 18.8% were set shots from the corridor inside 50 metres from goal. The next lowest % was West Coast with 20.8%. In 2024, Melbourne was 19.4%, only above Collingwood at 18.8%. The table below shows the breakdown of all Melbourne's shots (and the rest of the AFL) by distance, shot category, and pocket/corridor. A much higher proportion of Melbourne's shots are from set position, 30-50m, from the pocket (particularly the left pocket), and general play from 15-50m from the pocket. I have bolded where the difference between Melbourne's % and the rest of the AFL is greatest. General Play Set Position Left Corridor Right Left Corridor Right 0 to <15 m Melbourne 0.8% 4.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2.1% 0.3% Rest of AFL 0.6% 5.1% 0.6% 0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 15 to <30 m Melbourne 4.0% 8.8% 3.9% 2.0% 3.7% 1.7% Rest of AFL 2.9% 9.1% 3.4% 1.9% 5.4% 2.2% 30 to <40 m Melbourne 3.3% 7.2% 2.4% 4.3% 5.0% 4.6% Rest of AFL 2.4% 7.2% 2.7% 3.5% 6.3% 3.9% 40 to <50 m Melbourne 2.4% 3.9% 1.8% 7.8% 8.0% 5.9% Rest of AFL 1.6% 4.5% 1.8% 5.5% 9.0% 5.9% 50+ m Melbourne 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% Rest of AFL 0.7% 2.4% 0.7% 2.0% 3.7% 2.2% All Melbourne 11.3% 25.9% 9.5% 17.0% 21.7% 14.5% Rest of AFL 8.3% 28.2% 9.3% 13.2% 26.4% 14.5% You can explore location of shots (for players and teams) at the following page of my site: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html- 2024 Brownlow Medal
For those who have an interest in the Brownlow, you can track my predictions live during the count this year. https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow_live.html- Goodwin Gifts Daicos Brownlow
I referenced contested marks, and my point was that most of the top possession winners have barely taken a contested mark this season.- Goodwin Gifts Daicos Brownlow
Although it is an interesting stat, I disagree that it shows that he is basically an outside receiver considering Matt Rowell held the record and he's a contested bull. Teams are only averaging 9.6 contested marks a game this season - they're few and far between. Contested marks for leading possession winners, 2024 Nick Daicos: 0 / 694 Tom Green: 2 / 673 Adam Treloar: 3 / 662 Caleb Serong: 2 / 655 Zak Butters: 0 / 638 Noah Anderson: 0 / 634 Patrick Cripps: 7 / 633 Andrew Brayshaw: 1 / 627 Luke Davies-Uniacke: 1 / 624 Zach Merrett: 2 / 614 Nick Daicos is ranked fifth for average first possessions at stoppages and first for gathers from hitout. He may not win as many hard ball gets as some, but he definitely wins plenty of his own ball.- Stats Files - 2024
- POSTGAME: Rd 24 vs Collingwood