WheeloRatings

For those who have an interest in the Brownlow, you can track my predictions live during the count this year. https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow_live.html

I referenced contested marks, and my point was that most of the top possession winners have barely taken a contested mark this season.

Although it is an interesting stat, I disagree that it shows that he is basically an outside receiver considering Matt Rowell held the record and he's a contested bull. Teams are only averaging 9.6 contested marks a game this season - they're few and far between. Contested marks for leading possession winners, 2024 Nick Daicos: 0 / 694 Tom Green: 2 / 673 Adam Treloar: 3 / 662 Caleb Serong: 2 / 655 Zak Butters: 0 / 638 Noah Anderson: 0 / 634 Patrick Cripps: 7 / 633 Andrew Brayshaw: 1 / 627 Luke Davies-Uniacke: 1 / 624 Zach Merrett: 2 / 614 Nick Daicos is ranked fifth for average first possessions at stoppages and first for gathers from hitout. He may not win as many hard ball gets as some, but he definitely wins plenty of his own ball.

Melbourne won the possession count seven times this year (30% of games) which is the lowest proportion in a season for Melbourne since 2013 when we won the possession count once. The last three seasons we have won the possession count in 60%, 58% and 64% of games.

Melbourne v Collingwood (Round 24, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20242406 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 70.3 76.1 -5.8 Kicking Efficiency 65.2 68.5 -3.3 Metres Gained 5545 6434 -889 Inside 50s 43 55 -12 Shots At Goal 19 36 -17 Shots Per Inside 50 44.2 65.5 -21.3 Contested Possessions 111 118 -7 Ground Ball Gets 80 84 -4 Intercepts 71 79 -8 Intercept Marks 19 12 +7 Centre Clearances 10 13 -3 Stoppage Clearances 17 18 -1 Contested Marks 10 6 +4 Marks Inside 50 8 21 -13 Hitouts 27 25 +2 Hitouts To Advantage 5 8 -3 Tackles 42 41 +1 Tackles Inside 50 4 11 -7 Def One On One Loss % 0.0 0.0 +0.0 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 5 3 +2 Loose Ball Get 15 9 +6 Contested Mark 1 2 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 0 +1 Gather From Hitout 1 1 0 Contested Knock On 0 2 -2 Free For 2 4 -2 Total 25 21 +4 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 3 1 +2 Loose Ball Get 7 14 -7 Free For 1 2 -1 Total 11 17 -6 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 15 11 +4 Loose Ball Get 40 50 -10 Contested Mark 10 6 +4 Contested Knock On 2 5 -3 Free For 10 12 -2 Total 77 84 -7 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 7 8 -1 Loose Ball Get 18 15 +3 Ruck Hard Ball Get 3 1 +2 Gather From Hitout 5 6 -1 Contested Knock On 0 2 -2 Free For 1 2 -1 Total 34 34 0 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 61.0 57 1 0% +10.0 Collingwood 116.9 103 3 100% +56.0 +46 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 19 8.8.56 42.1% 60.0 −4.0 3.16 −0.21 Collingwood 36 15.10.100 41.7% 113.9 −13.9 3.17 −0.39 General Play Melbourne 11 2.6.18 18.2% 29.8 −11.8 2.71 −1.08 Collingwood 14 4.5.29 28.6% 45.2 −16.2 3.23 −1.16 Set Position Melbourne 8 6.2.38 75.0% 30.1 +7.9 3.77 +0.98 Collingwood 22 11.5.71 50.0% 68.8 +2.2 3.13 +0.10 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 157 192 -35 2 147 168 -21 3 158 187 -29 4 177 160 +17 Match 161 178 -17 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Alex Neal-Bullen 31 56 53.8 Kade Chandler 22 51 44.7 Jack Viney 24 50 56.7 Ed Langdon 21 39 32.3 Koltyn Tholstrup 19 38 37.5 Judd McVee 19 38 17.4 Trent Rivers 17 37 30.5 Kysaiah Pickett 16 34 42.8 Jake Bowey 14 31 19.0 Bailey Laurie 11 27 23.0 Christian Salem 11 26 26.3 Jack Billings 13 26 23.7 Bayley Fritsch 12 21 16.0 Blake Howes 10 18 16.2 Max Gawn 7 17 22.0 Taj Woewodin 10 17 14.6 Harrison Petty 6 15 29.6 Jake Melksham 7 15 11.6 Tom McDonald 5 13 19.0 Adam Tomlinson 6 9 17.9 Marty Hore 7 8 11.2 Jacob van Rooyen 3 5 16.8 Daniel Turner 1 1 12.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 36% 64% 2 42% 58% 3 46% 54% 4 36% 64% Match 39% 61% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.1.7 1.0.6 +1 Centre Bounce 2.0.12 0.0.0 +12 Stoppage (Other) 2.2.14 4.4.28 -14 Turnover 3.6.24 10.9.69 -45 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 7 3.6 6 3.1 Centre Bounce 12 9.8 0 7.3 Stoppage (Other) 14 23.4 28 19.7 Turnover 24 40.8 69 48.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Collingwood. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 12 9.8 0 7.3 Kick-in D50 7 3.6 6 3.1 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 3.1 0 1.3 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.1 6 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 12.5 9 8.8 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 5.7 13 7.5 Turnover D50 1 8.8 8 8.9 Turnover Centre 0 7.4 19 7.4 Turnover Wing 22 17.8 22 25.4 Turnover F50 1 6.8 20 7.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 14 15.5 14 13.3 Centre 12 19.3 25 16.8 Wing 29 30.3 31 34.2 F50 2 12.5 33 14.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 14 15.5 14 13.3 Defensive midfield 15 16.1 26 18.7 Centre bounce 12 9.8 0 7.3 Attacking midfield 14 23.7 30 25.0 Forward 50 2 12.5 33 14.5 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Collingwood. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 29 31.6 40 32.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Collingwood. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 23 88% 85.0% 64.9% Jack Viney 20 77% 69.1% 72.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 18 69% 19.8% 2.1% Judd McVee 15 58% 6.3% 0.0% Trent Rivers 13 50% 29.9% 3.0% Bailey Laurie 6 23% 11.0% 0.0% Ed Langdon 4 15% 0.7% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 3 12% 17.8% 7.6% Kysaiah Pickett 2 8% 33.0% 11.2% Christian Salem 0 0% 12.3% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 7.5% 0.7% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 5.7% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.3% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Clayton Oliver 70.7% 81.4% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Tom Sparrow 37.7% 44.9% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 61 87% 81.1% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 6 9% 17.6% 13.1% Harrison Petty 3 4% 7.9% 2.0% Daniel Turner 0 0% 3.1% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0.0% 0.0% Tom Sparrow 0.0% 0.0% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 61 25 5 27.9% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 6 1 0 24.7% 31.1% Harrison Petty 3 1 0 24.4% 25.0% Daniel Turner 0 0 0 50.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Darcy Cameron 49 16 4 Mason Cox 21 9 4

Unfortunately there is an issue with the data source which is outside of my control. I will update the data if/when the issue is resolved.

Melbourne v Gold Coast (Round 23, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20242303 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 77.7 71.3 +6.4 Kicking Efficiency 72.3 63.3 +9.0 Metres Gained 6274 5576 +698 Inside 50s 54 49 +5 Shots At Goal 29 18 +11 Shots Per Inside 50 53.7 36.7 +17.0 Contested Possessions 121 111 +10 Ground Ball Gets 82 74 +8 Intercepts 67 63 +4 Intercept Marks 16 17 -1 Centre Clearances 18 7 +11 Stoppage Clearances 27 29 -2 Contested Marks 11 5 +6 Marks Inside 50 16 8 +8 Hitouts 40 34 +6 Hitouts To Advantage 10 11 -1 Tackles 50 47 +3 Tackles Inside 50 9 9 +0 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 35.3 -15.3 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 6 4 +2 Loose Ball Get 14 10 +4 Contested Mark 1 0 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 2 -2 Gather From Hitout 2 1 +1 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 1 2 -1 Total 24 20 +4 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 4 8 -4 Loose Ball Get 7 7 0 Contested Mark 3 2 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 2 0 +2 Gather From Hitout 1 1 0 Free For 1 2 -1 Total 18 20 -2 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 14 16 -2 Loose Ball Get 43 32 +11 Contested Mark 11 5 +6 Contested Knock On 1 5 -4 Free For 7 10 -3 Total 76 68 +8 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 6 7 -1 Loose Ball Get 19 19 0 Ruck Hard Ball Get 5 2 +3 Gather From Hitout 9 11 -2 Contested Knock On 4 2 +2 Free For 2 2 0 Total 45 43 +2 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 102.7 117 0 99% +40.9 +54 +13.1 Gold Coast 61.8 63 1 1% Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 29 18.9.117 62.1% 102.7 +14.3 3.54 +0.49 Gold Coast 18 9.8.62 50.0% 60.8 +1.2 3.38 +0.07 General Play Melbourne 12 4.6.30 33.3% 37.7 −7.7 3.15 −0.65 Gold Coast 8 5.3.33 62.5% 22.6 +10.4 2.82 +1.31 Set Position Melbourne 17 14.3.87 82.4% 65.0 +22.0 3.82 +1.30 Gold Coast 10 4.5.29 40.0% 38.3 −9.3 3.83 −0.93 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 184 171 +13 2 174 182 -8 3 197 174 +23 4 167 175 -8 Match 181 175 +6 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 31 83 57.0 Koltyn Tholstrup 24 53 37.4 Alex Neal-Bullen 20 51 53.7 Trent Rivers 22 41 30.2 Kade Chandler 17 35 44.5 Ed Langdon 16 35 32.0 Kysaiah Pickett 19 34 43.2 Judd McVee 11 28 16.5 Jake Lever 13 26 15.4 Christian Salem 13 24 26.3 Bayley Fritsch 13 24 15.8 Harrison Petty 13 23 30.3 Jake Bowey 10 22 18.1 Max Gawn 6 18 22.2 Marty Hore 8 18 11.8 Jack Billings 7 14 23.5 Tom McDonald 4 14 19.3 Jacob van Rooyen 6 14 17.4 Blake Howes 5 13 16.1 Jake Melksham 5 12 11.1 Adam Tomlinson 3 9 19.1 Daniel Turner 3 6 12.8 Tom Sparrow 1 1 41.7 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 43% 57% 2 37% 63% 3 42% 58% 4 58% 42% Match 45% 55% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 0.1.1 +5 Centre Bounce 5.1.31 2.2.14 +17 Stoppage (Other) 7.2.44 1.1.7 +37 Turnover 5.6.36 6.5.41 -5 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 3.5 1 3.0 Centre Bounce 31 9.7 14 7.7 Stoppage (Other) 44 23.8 7 19.3 Turnover 36 41.5 41 47.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 31 9.7 14 7.7 Kick-in D50 6 3.5 1 3.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 3.0 1 1.3 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 2.2 0 1.9 Stoppage (Other) Wing 30 12.7 0 8.8 Stoppage (Other) F50 7 6.0 6 7.3 Turnover D50 15 9.1 14 9.0 Turnover Centre 6 7.7 0 6.9 Turnover Wing 8 17.6 20 25.5 Turnover F50 7 7.0 7 6.4 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 27 15.5 16 13.2 Centre 38 19.6 14 16.4 Wing 38 30.4 20 34.4 F50 14 13.0 13 13.6 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 27 15.5 16 13.2 Defensive midfield 19 16.1 0 18.4 Centre bounce 31 9.7 14 7.7 Attacking midfield 26 24.1 20 24.7 Forward 50 14 13.0 13 13.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 46 31.7 16 31.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 25 83% 84.8% 64.9% Jack Viney 23 77% 68.8% 72.1% Trent Rivers 20 67% 29.0% 3.0% Judd McVee 18 60% 4.0% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 16 53% 17.5% 2.1% Tom Sparrow 6 20% 37.7% 44.9% Jacob van Rooyen 5 17% 18.1% 7.6% Kysaiah Pickett 4 13% 34.3% 11.2% Koltyn Tholstrup 3 10% 6.4% Christian Salem 0 0% 13.0% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 7.9% 0.7% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.3% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Clayton Oliver 70.7% 81.4% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Bailey Laurie 8.3% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 75 82% 80.8% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 16 18% 18.0% 13.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 8.1% 2.0% Daniel Turner 0 0% 3.2% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0.0% 0.0% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 75 33 8 28.2% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 16 7 2 25.0% 31.1% Daniel Turner 0 0 0 50.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 25.0% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Jarrod Witts 73 27 8 Mac Andrew 16 6 2 Jed Walter 3 1 1

Yes, that's correct. They had 26 shots in total - up to five of those resulted in a rushed behind and therefore at least eight didn't register a score at all. One was a shot by JHF which was smothered off the boot, so they can also count as a shot if it was deemed to be a genuine shot at goal. I say "up to five" rushed as a rushed behind may not follow a shot, but I haven't checked to see whether this was the case for any of Port's rushed behinds. Yes, it does seem like a reasonably high proportion of their shots not registering a score, but I haven't looked into how it compares to other teams across the season.

The expected score for Port may be a little higher than others as I include the rushed behinds and Port had five. This may overinflate an expected score as there may also have been a shot at goal in that chain which was already included in the expected score. AFLxScore on Twitter had the expected scores as 62.2 (+1 rushed) to 76.7 (+0 rushed) and Champion Data had the expected scores as 67 to 80, so not significantly different to 61.6 (+2 rushed) to 78.8 (+5 rushed). The difference between my model and AFLxScore's is basically the rushed behinds which they handle differently to me. I will aim review this in the off season. Does this explain it, or does it still not seem right?

Melbourne v Port Adelaide (Round 22, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20242206 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 65.4 73.8 -8.4 Kicking Efficiency 61.5 69.5 -8.0 Metres Gained 6033 6176 -143 Inside 50s 48 56 -8 Shots At Goal 19 26 -7 Shots Per Inside 50 39.6 46.4 -6.8 Contested Possessions 160 130 +30 Ground Ball Gets 102 92 +10 Intercepts 80 78 +2 Intercept Marks 14 17 -3 Centre Clearances 8 9 -1 Stoppage Clearances 23 26 -3 Contested Marks 13 6 +7 Marks Inside 50 7 13 -6 Hitouts 32 29 +3 Hitouts To Advantage 15 9 +6 Tackles 60 62 -2 Tackles Inside 50 18 6 +12 Def One On One Loss % 9.1 33.3 -24.2 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 5 2 +3 Loose Ball Get 15 12 +3 Contested Mark 2 3 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 0 +1 Gather From Hitout 4 0 +4 Contested Knock On 1 1 0 Free For 5 0 +5 Total 33 18 +15 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 7 4 +3 Loose Ball Get 16 17 -1 Contested Mark 1 0 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 1 0 Gather From Hitout 0 2 -2 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 1 2 -1 Total 26 27 -1 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 25 15 +10 Loose Ball Get 58 56 +2 Contested Mark 13 6 +7 Contested Knock On 4 3 +1 Free For 18 10 +8 Total 118 90 +28 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 6 3 +3 Loose Ball Get 13 18 -5 Ruck Hard Ball Get 5 4 +1 Gather From Hitout 14 9 +5 Contested Knock On 1 3 -2 Free For 3 3 0 Total 42 40 +2 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 63.6 51 2 11% +18.2 Port Adelaide 83.8 53 5 89% +20.2 +2 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 19 7.7.49 36.8% 61.6 −12.6 3.24 −0.66 Port Adelaide 26 7.6.48 26.9% 78.8 −30.8 3.03 −1.18 General Play Melbourne 11 3.6.24 27.3% 32.9 −8.9 2.99 −0.81 Port Adelaide 16 2.5.17 12.5% 44.4 −27.4 2.77 −1.71 Set Position Melbourne 8 4.1.25 50.0% 28.7 −3.7 3.59 −0.47 Port Adelaide 10 5.1.31 50.0% 34.4 −3.4 3.44 −0.34 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 182 194 -12 2 154 162 -8 3 199 185 +14 4 182 204 -22 Match 179 186 -7 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Kysaiah Pickett 25 57 43.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 24 54 53.8 Clayton Oliver 22 52 46.3 Harrison Petty 18 50 30.7 Jack Viney 19 47 55.8 Kade Chandler 19 43 44.9 Ed Langdon 15 40 31.8 Tom Sparrow 16 34 43.7 Trent Rivers 15 32 29.7 Koltyn Tholstrup 17 31 35.5 Jack Billings 13 30 24.2 Judd McVee 12 28 15.9 Christian Salem 10 23 26.5 Daniel Turner 11 19 13.3 Tom McDonald 9 18 19.6 Adam Tomlinson 7 16 20.8 Jake Lever 8 16 14.8 Max Gawn 6 15 22.4 Blake Howes 6 15 16.4 Bayley Fritsch 5 11 15.4 Jacob van Rooyen 5 9 17.5 Marty Hore 4 8 10.2 Jake Melksham 0 0 11.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 61% 39% 2 49% 51% 3 36% 64% 4 49% 51% Match 49% 51% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 0.0.0 +6 Centre Bounce 0.1.1 1.3.9 -8 Stoppage (Other) 2.4.16 2.2.14 +2 Turnover 4.4.28 4.6.30 -2 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 3.3 0 3.0 Centre Bounce 1 8.7 9 7.4 Stoppage (Other) 16 22.9 14 19.9 Turnover 28 41.8 30 48.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Port Adelaide. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 1 8.7 9 7.4 Kick-in D50 6 3.3 0 3.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 12 2.8 1 1.3 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.2 0 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 3 11.9 6 9.2 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 5.9 7 7.3 Turnover D50 12 8.9 6 8.7 Turnover Centre 6 7.8 7 7.2 Turnover Wing 6 18.1 16 25.8 Turnover F50 4 7.0 1 6.3 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 30 15.0 7 13.1 Centre 7 18.7 16 16.5 Wing 9 30.0 22 35.0 F50 5 13.0 8 13.7 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 30 15.0 7 13.1 Defensive midfield 7 16.0 21 19.2 Centre bounce 1 8.7 9 7.4 Attacking midfield 8 24.0 8 25.0 Forward 50 5 13.0 8 13.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Port Adelaide. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 37 31.0 28 32.3 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Port Adelaide. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 17 94% 84.9% 64.9% Jack Viney 13 72% 68.3% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 11 61% 38.7% 44.9% Trent Rivers 11 61% 26.9% 3.0% Clayton Oliver 9 50% 70.7% 81.4% Kysaiah Pickett 5 28% 35.5% 11.2% Judd McVee 4 22% 0.9% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 1 6% 18.2% 7.6% Koltyn Tholstrup 1 6% 5.8% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 15.6% 2.1% Christian Salem 0 0% 14.0% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 8.4% 0.7% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.3% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Bailey Laurie 8.3% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 53 69% 80.7% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 14 18% 18.0% 13.1% Harrison Petty 8 10% 8.5% 2.0% Daniel Turner 2 3% 3.5% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Steven May 0.0% 0.0% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 53 30 15 28.4% 30.1% Harrison Petty 8 2 0 25.0% 25.0% Daniel Turner 2 0 0 50.0% Jacob van Rooyen 14 0 0 24.7% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Jordon Sweet 61 27 8 Charlie Dixon 16 2 1

I don't know - it is clearly our lowest since the start of 2021 based on my estimates and I don't have data pre-2021! Here are Melbourne's lowest 20 matches for time in forward half since the start of 2021. Season Round Team Opposition Forward Half 2024 21 Melbourne Western Bulldogs 36.7% 2022 17 Melbourne Geelong 40.0% 2023 10 Melbourne Port Adelaide 40.1% 2024 10 Melbourne West Coast 42.4% 2024 3 Melbourne Port Adelaide 42.8% 2023 17 Melbourne St Kilda 44.3% 2024 12 Melbourne Fremantle 44.7% 2024 0 Melbourne Sydney 45.5% 2024 19 Melbourne Fremantle 45.5% 2024 1 Melbourne Western Bulldogs 46.1% 2023 2 Melbourne Brisbane 46.4% 2022 19 Melbourne Western Bulldogs 46.7% 2022 2 Melbourne Gold Coast 46.8% 2024 7 Melbourne Richmond 47.0% 2023 5 Melbourne Essendon 47.1% 2021 6 Melbourne Richmond 47.3% 2023 6 Melbourne Richmond 47.3% 2021 8 Melbourne Sydney 47.5% 2024 15 Melbourne North Melbourne 47.7% 2024 5 Melbourne Brisbane 47.7% It is actually the 22nd lowest time in forward half for any team since the start of 2021. Season Round Team Opposition Forward Half 2022 16 North Melbourne Geelong 30.1% 2021 20 Gold Coast Melbourne 31.4% 2022 10 North Melbourne Melbourne 32.0% 2024 4 North Melbourne Brisbane 32.3% 2023 17 West Coast Brisbane 34.2% 2023 18 Essendon Geelong 34.3% 2023 10 West Coast Hawthorn 34.5% 2021 17 Adelaide Essendon 34.7% 2024 19 West Coast St Kilda 35.1% 2022 18 North Melbourne Richmond 35.5% 2022 3 North Melbourne Brisbane 35.7% 2022 23 Hawthorn Western Bulldogs 35.9% 2024 7 North Melbourne Adelaide 36.1% 2022 17 West Coast Carlton 36.2% 2021 23 North Melbourne Adelaide 36.2% 2023 9 Essendon Brisbane 36.3% 2023 24 West Coast Adelaide 36.5% 2023 15 West Coast Sydney 36.5% 2022 27 Sydney Geelong 36.6% 2021 5 St Kilda Richmond 36.6% 2022 11 West Coast Western Bulldogs 36.6% 2024 21 Melbourne Western Bulldogs 36.7% 2023 8 Essendon Port Adelaide 36.7% 2023 14 North Melbourne Western Bulldogs 36.7%

Here is the breakdown of clearances by quarter: Team 1 2 3 4 Stoppage Clearances Melbourne 4 7 9 6 Western Bulldogs 8 9 4 7 Diff -4 -2 +5 -1 Centre Clearances Melbourne 0 3 3 5 Western Bulldogs 5 4 4 0 Diff -5 -1 -1 +5

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs (Round 21, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20242109 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 67.2 74.0 -6.8 Kicking Efficiency 64.0 64.3 -0.3 Metres Gained 5647 6474 -827 Inside 50s 39 65 -26 Shots At Goal 20 41 -21 Shots Per Inside 50 51.3 63.1 -11.8 Contested Possessions 135 135 +0 Ground Ball Gets 89 87 +2 Intercepts 55 70 -15 Intercept Marks 12 16 -4 Centre Clearances 11 13 -2 Stoppage Clearances 26 28 -2 Contested Marks 11 12 -1 Marks Inside 50 12 19 -7 Hitouts 47 40 +7 Hitouts To Advantage 16 11 +5 Tackles 63 57 +6 Tackles Inside 50 5 14 -9 Def One On One Loss % 100.0 40.0 +60.0 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 8 5 +3 Loose Ball Get 22 13 +9 Contested Mark 1 4 -3 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 0 +1 Gather From Hitout 0 2 -2 Free For 2 6 -4 Total 34 30 +4 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 2 5 -3 Loose Ball Get 6 8 -2 Contested Mark 1 2 -1 Gather From Hitout 2 0 +2 Contested Knock On 1 0 +1 Free For 0 2 -2 Total 12 17 -5 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 12 15 -3 Loose Ball Get 43 39 +4 Contested Mark 11 12 -1 Contested Knock On 3 5 -2 Free For 6 16 -10 Total 75 87 -12 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 11 8 +3 Loose Ball Get 23 25 -2 Ruck Hard Ball Get 5 1 +4 Gather From Hitout 12 11 +1 Free For 9 3 +6 Total 60 48 +12 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 60.3 59 2 0% +22.5 Western Bulldogs 133.7 110 2 100% +73.5 +51 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 20 9.3.57 45.0% 58.3 −1.3 2.91 −0.06 Western Bulldogs 41 15.18.108 36.6% 131.7 −23.7 3.21 −0.58 General Play Melbourne 7 2.1.13 28.6% 18.3 −5.3 2.62 −0.76 Western Bulldogs 17 3.9.27 17.6% 43.9 −16.9 2.58 −0.99 Set Position Melbourne 13 7.2.44 53.8% 39.9 +4.1 3.07 +0.31 Western Bulldogs 24 12.9.81 50.0% 87.8 −6.8 3.66 −0.28 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 163 179 -16 2 200 177 +23 3 175 162 +13 4 151 184 -33 Match 172 176 -4 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 27 50 46.0 Tom Sparrow 23 50 44.2 Jack Viney 26 48 56.2 Alex Neal-Bullen 22 48 53.8 Koltyn Tholstrup 21 46 36.1 Trent Rivers 20 46 29.6 Ed Langdon 19 38 31.4 Kysaiah Pickett 17 35 42.9 Kade Chandler 14 30 45.0 Jacob van Rooyen 11 30 18.0 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 13 27 32.2 Judd McVee 12 27 15.3 Taj Woewodin 13 26 14.5 Jake Bowey 13 24 17.8 Max Gawn 9 21 22.8 Harrison Petty 10 20 29.6 Jake Lever 10 17 14.8 Jake Melksham 7 16 13.2 Tom McDonald 5 15 19.6 Blake Howes 5 7 16.5 Daniel Turner 3 6 12.8 Steven May 2 6 9.9 Bayley Fritsch 3 4 15.6 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 32% 68% 2 33% 67% 3 41% 59% 4 40% 60% Match 36% 64% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.1.7 3.0.18 -11 Centre Bounce 0.1.1 0.2.2 -1 Stoppage (Other) 6.2.38 3.8.26 +12 Turnover 2.1.13 9.10.64 -51 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 7 3.2 18 3.2 Centre Bounce 1 9.1 2 7.3 Stoppage (Other) 38 23.2 26 20.1 Turnover 13 42.5 64 49.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 1 9.1 2 7.3 Kick-in D50 7 3.2 18 3.2 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 2.4 0 1.4 Stoppage (Other) Centre 6 2.3 1 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 19 12.3 9 9.4 Stoppage (Other) F50 7 6.2 16 7.3 Turnover D50 6 8.7 15 8.8 Turnover Centre 0 7.9 0 7.2 Turnover Wing 1 18.7 35 26.3 Turnover F50 6 7.2 14 6.6 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 19 14.2 33 13.4 Centre 7 19.3 3 16.6 Wing 20 31.0 44 35.7 F50 13 13.4 30 13.9 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 19 14.2 33 13.4 Defensive midfield 6 16.4 15 19.1 Centre bounce 1 9.1 2 7.3 Attacking midfield 20 24.8 30 25.8 Forward 50 13 13.4 30 13.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 25 30.7 48 32.5 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 24 86% 84.5% 64.9% Jack Viney 18 64% 68.2% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 18 64% 37.9% 44.9% Clayton Oliver 17 61% 71.4% 81.4% Trent Rivers 16 57% 25.8% 3.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 9 32% 5.9% Kysaiah Pickett 5 18% 35.8% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 4 14% 18.7% 7.6% Judd McVee 1 4% 0.2% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 16.1% 2.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 8.7% 0.7% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.3% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Christian Salem 14.7% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 8.3% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 86 82% 81.3% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 19 18% 18.0% 13.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 8.4% 2.0% Daniel Turner 0 0% 3.6% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 86 44 15 27.4% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 19 3 1 24.7% 31.1% Daniel Turner 0 0 0 50.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 26.3% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Tim English 73 28 8 Sam Darcy 32 12 3

Merrett is rated significantly higher than ANB, but Merrett is classified as a midfielder and ANB a mid-forward. Merrett is the 15th highest rated player in the competition but most players above him are too. It's based on the Player Ratings which you can access here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html?year=2024 The player classifications may differ slightly and wings aren't differentiated from other midfielders on my site.

This is what my simulations show Melbourne's chances of playing finals are for a given number of wins (which does account for Melbourne's percentage): 14.0 wins: 97% 13.5 wins: 74% 13.0 wins: 29% 12.5 wins: 7% 12.0 wins: 0.4%

Here is the ladder if the average result was used where two teams played each other twice, ordered by Match Ratio (% of possible points) given different numbers of opposition teams played. M W L D For Agn Pts MR % 1 Sydney 16 12.0 4.0 0.0 1630.5 1157.5 48.0 75.0 140.9 2 Greater Western Sydney 16 10.5 5.5 0.0 1424.0 1248.0 42.0 65.6 114.1 3 Fremantle 14 8.5 4.5 1.0 1175.0 1002.5 36.0 64.3 117.2 4 Brisbane 16 9.5 6.0 0.5 1513.5 1266.5 39.0 60.9 119.5 5 Carlton 14 8.5 5.5 0.0 1310.5 1207.5 34.0 60.7 108.5 6 Geelong 15 9.0 6.0 0.0 1345.5 1255.0 36.0 60.0 107.2 7 Western Bulldogs 16 9.5 6.5 0.0 1462.5 1228.0 38.0 59.4 119.1 8 Melbourne 16 9.5 6.5 0.0 1282.0 1189.0 38.0 59.4 107.8 9 Port Adelaide 16 9.5 6.5 0.0 1377.0 1304.5 38.0 59.4 105.6 10 Hawthorn 16 9.5 6.5 0.0 1312.5 1278.0 38.0 59.4 102.7 11 Collingwood 17 8.5 7.0 1.5 1484.5 1447.0 37.0 54.4 102.6 12 Gold Coast 16 8.5 7.5 0.0 1368.0 1318.5 34.0 53.1 103.8 13 Essendon 15 7.5 7.0 0.5 1243.5 1316.5 31.0 51.7 94.5 14 Adelaide 16 6.5 9.0 0.5 1310.0 1255.5 27.0 42.2 104.3 15 St Kilda 16 6.5 9.5 0.0 1176.0 1230.5 26.0 40.6 95.6 16 West Coast 15 2.0 13.0 0.0 978.5 1511.0 8.0 13.3 64.8 17 Richmond 16 2.0 14.0 0.0 1032.5 1618.5 8.0 12.5 63.8 18 North Melbourne 16 1.5 14.5 0.0 1125.0 1717.0 6.0 9.4 65.5

Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney (Round 20, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20242006 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 66.4 74.2 -7.9 Kicking Efficiency 61.8 66.1 -4.3 Metres Gained 5199 5530 -331 Inside 50s 49 53 -4 Shots At Goal 19 21 -2 Shots Per Inside 50 38.8 39.6 -0.8 Contested Possessions 137 141 -4 Ground Ball Gets 105 100 +5 Intercepts 78 72 +6 Intercept Marks 20 9 +11 Centre Clearances 12 14 -2 Stoppage Clearances 24 24 +0 Contested Marks 7 8 -1 Marks Inside 50 9 11 -2 Hitouts 28 38 -10 Hitouts To Advantage 6 12 -6 Tackles 57 63 -6 Tackles Inside 50 9 5 +4 Def One On One Loss % 17.6 25.0 -7.4 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 4 1 +3 Loose Ball Get 19 13 +6 Contested Mark 2 3 -1 Gather From Hitout 0 1 -1 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 0 2 -2 Total 25 21 +4 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 2 3 -1 Loose Ball Get 13 21 -8 Ruck Hard Ball Get 4 0 +4 Gather From Hitout 2 1 +1 Free For 1 3 -2 Total 22 28 -6 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 12 9 +3 Loose Ball Get 54 59 -5 Contested Mark 7 8 -1 Contested Knock On 4 4 0 Free For 10 9 +1 Total 87 89 -2 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 14 4 +10 Loose Ball Get 25 28 -3 Ruck Hard Ball Get 5 3 +2 Gather From Hitout 4 10 -6 Contested Knock On 1 3 -2 Free For 1 4 -3 Total 50 52 -2 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 68.0 83 4 21% +10.2 Greater Western Sydney 80.2 85 2 79% +12.2 +2 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 19 12.7.79 63.2% 64.0 +15.0 3.37 +0.79 Greater Western Sydney 21 13.5.83 61.9% 78.2 +4.8 3.72 +0.23 General Play Melbourne 11 7.4.46 63.6% 36.6 +9.4 3.33 +0.86 Greater Western Sydney 10 5.3.33 50.0% 36.1 −3.1 3.61 −0.31 Set Position Melbourne 8 5.3.33 62.5% 27.4 +5.6 3.43 +0.70 Greater Western Sydney 11 8.2.50 72.7% 42.1 +7.9 3.82 +0.72 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 201 171 +30 2 185 207 -22 3 159 182 -23 4 178 200 -22 Match 180 189 -9 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 36 73 45.8 Alex Neal-Bullen 27 70 54.1 Kysaiah Pickett 27 67 43.4 Bailey Laurie 25 52 22.2 Kade Chandler 25 47 45.8 Caleb Windsor 23 44 33.6 Jack Viney 20 40 56.7 Jack Billings 18 35 23.8 Harrison Petty 16 33 30.2 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 15 32 33.2 Ed Langdon 15 29 31.0 Trent Rivers 13 29 28.7 Bayley Fritsch 14 25 16.2 Max Gawn 12 21 22.9 Taj Woewodin 9 19 13.6 Jake Bowey 8 17 17.2 Judd McVee 9 17 14.7 Jake Melksham 9 17 12.5 Jake Lever 8 14 14.6 Jacob van Rooyen 6 13 17.3 Steven May 4 12 10.1 Tom McDonald 3 7 19.9 Daniel Turner 4 7 13.5 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 65% 35% 2 44% 56% 3 34% 66% 4 54% 46% Match 51% 49% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 1.0.6 -6 Centre Bounce 0.0.0 2.1.13 -13 Stoppage (Other) 4.3.27 5.2.32 -5 Turnover 8.8.56 5.4.34 +22 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 3.0 6 2.4 Centre Bounce 0 9.5 13 7.6 Stoppage (Other) 27 22.4 32 19.8 Turnover 56 44.1 34 48.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 0 9.5 13 7.6 Kick-in D50 0 3.0 6 2.4 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 2.2 1 1.4 Stoppage (Other) Centre 6 2.2 7 2.1 Stoppage (Other) Wing 1 12.0 18 9.4 Stoppage (Other) F50 20 6.1 6 6.9 Turnover D50 13 8.8 7 8.5 Turnover Centre 13 8.3 7 7.6 Turnover Wing 7 19.6 13 25.8 Turnover F50 23 7.3 7 6.2 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 13 14.0 14 12.4 Centre 19 19.9 27 17.3 Wing 8 31.6 31 35.3 F50 43 13.4 13 13.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 13 14.0 14 12.4 Defensive midfield 0 17.0 20 19.4 Centre bounce 0 9.5 13 7.6 Attacking midfield 27 25.1 25 25.6 Forward 50 43 13.4 13 13.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 13 31.0 34 31.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 25 86% 84.5% 64.9% Jack Viney 24 83% 68.4% 72.1% Clayton Oliver 23 79% 72.0% 81.4% Trent Rivers 21 72% 24.0% 3.0% Kysaiah Pickett 8 28% 36.9% 11.2% Bailey Laurie 6 21% 8.3% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 5 17% 17.0% 2.1% Jacob van Rooyen 4 14% 19.0% 7.6% Harrison Petty 0 0% 9.3% 0.7% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.3% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Tom Sparrow 36.3% 44.9% Christian Salem 14.7% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 1.2% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 72 79% 81.2% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 16 18% 18.0% 13.1% Harrison Petty 2 2% 9.0% 2.0% Daniel Turner 1 1% 4.0% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Tom Sparrow 0.0% 0.0% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 72 24 6 26.9% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 16 4 0 24.4% 31.1% Daniel Turner 1 0 0 50.0% Harrison Petty 2 0 0 26.3% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Kieren Briggs 72 36 11 Jake Riccardi 19 2 1

Here is my expected scores ladder based on expected wins. Rather than distilling the expected scores for a given match down to a win/loss/draw, the xWin % for a given match is the probability of the team winning given the expected scores.

Melbourne v Fremantle (Round 19, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241904 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 73.7 75.7 -2.0 Kicking Efficiency 68.2 64.4 +3.8 Metres Gained 5801 6458 -657 Inside 50s 47 60 -13 Shots At Goal 18 35 -17 Shots Per Inside 50 38.3 58.3 -20.0 Contested Possessions 105 141 -36 Ground Ball Gets 84 88 -4 Intercepts 74 66 +8 Intercept Marks 15 16 -1 Centre Clearances 8 17 -9 Stoppage Clearances 8 30 -22 Contested Marks 8 11 -3 Marks Inside 50 13 21 -8 Hitouts 9 47 -38 Hitouts To Advantage 0 17 -17 Tackles 50 32 +18 Tackles Inside 50 14 4 +10 Def One On One Loss % 28.6 0.0 +28.6 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 5 5 0 Loose Ball Get 18 10 +8 Contested Mark 2 2 0 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 1 -1 Gather From Hitout 0 1 -1 Contested Knock On 2 0 +2 Free For 2 2 0 Total 29 21 +8 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 2 8 -6 Loose Ball Get 6 12 -6 Contested Mark 1 2 -1 Gather From Hitout 0 3 -3 Free For 0 2 -2 Total 9 27 -18 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 11 14 -3 Loose Ball Get 49 46 +3 Contested Mark 8 11 -3 Contested Knock On 2 3 -1 Free For 7 12 -5 Total 77 86 -9 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 7 7 0 Loose Ball Get 17 21 -4 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 5 -5 Gather From Hitout 0 16 -16 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 4 5 -1 Total 28 55 -27 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 60.5 66 1 0% +14.6 Fremantle 125.0 116 2 100% +64.6 +50 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 18 10.5.65 55.6% 59.5 +5.5 3.30 +0.31 Fremantle 35 17.12.114 48.6% 123.0 −9.0 3.51 −0.26 General Play Melbourne 5 2.2.14 40.0% 14.1 −0.1 2.81 −0.01 Fremantle 13 5.5.35 38.5% 44.9 −9.9 3.45 −0.76 Set Position Melbourne 13 8.3.51 61.5% 45.4 +5.6 3.49 +0.43 Fremantle 22 12.7.79 54.5% 78.2 +0.8 3.55 +0.04 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 168 148 +20 2 149 148 +1 3 195 159 +36 4 177 161 +16 Match 173 154 +19 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Kysaiah Pickett 30 65 41.9 Kade Chandler 27 56 45.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 31 55 53.2 Tom Sparrow 27 53 43.9 Clayton Oliver 21 48 44.3 Harrison Petty 19 45 30.0 Jack Viney 20 42 57.6 Trent Rivers 18 36 28.7 Caleb Windsor 16 34 33.0 Ed Langdon 15 30 31.1 Christian Salem 13 28 26.7 Jake Bowey 10 28 17.2 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 11 23 33.5 Jacob van Rooyen 10 22 17.6 Bayley Fritsch 8 17 15.7 Tom McDonald 8 15 20.6 Jake Lever 7 14 14.6 Koltyn Tholstrup 9 13 34.5 Jack Billings 8 12 22.8 Judd McVee 10 12 14.6 Daniel Turner 4 12 14.1 Jake Melksham 6 11 11.0 Steven May 5 11 10.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 33% 67% 2 36% 64% 3 68% 32% 4 44% 56% Match 47% 53% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 2.1.13 0.0.0 +13 Centre Bounce 1.0.6 1.2.8 -2 Stoppage (Other) 1.0.6 3.5.23 -17 Turnover 6.5.41 13.7.85 -44 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 13 3.2 0 2.2 Centre Bounce 6 10.0 8 7.3 Stoppage (Other) 6 22.2 23 19.2 Turnover 41 43.4 85 48.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 6 10.0 8 7.3 Kick-in D50 13 3.2 0 2.2 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 2.3 0 1.4 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 1.9 1 1.8 Stoppage (Other) Wing 6 12.6 7 8.9 Stoppage (Other) F50 0 5.3 15 6.9 Turnover D50 8 8.6 32 8.6 Turnover Centre 18 8.1 13 7.6 Turnover Wing 9 20.3 39 26.6 Turnover F50 6 6.4 1 6.2 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 21 14.1 32 12.3 Centre 24 20.0 22 16.7 Wing 15 32.9 46 35.5 F50 6 11.7 16 13.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 21 14.1 32 12.3 Defensive midfield 6 17.9 32 19.3 Centre bounce 6 10.0 8 7.3 Attacking midfield 27 25.0 28 25.6 Forward 50 6 11.7 16 13.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 27 32.0 64 31.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Clayton Oliver 21 72% 71.5% 81.4% Jack Viney 20 69% 67.5% 72.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 52% 19.4% 7.6% Alex Neal-Bullen 14 48% 17.0% 2.1% Harrison Petty 14 48% 10.0% 0.7% Kysaiah Pickett 10 34% 37.6% 11.2% Tom Sparrow 10 34% 36.3% 44.9% Trent Rivers 8 28% 21.0% 3.0% Christian Salem 4 14% 14.7% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 1.2% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.4% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Max Gawn 84.3% 64.9% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 4.4% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Jacob van Rooyen 30 41% 18.0% 13.1% Harrison Petty 28 38% 9.5% 2.0% Daniel Turner 15 21% 4.3% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 81.4% 57.5% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Harrison Petty 28 6 0 26.3% 25.0% Jacob van Rooyen 30 3 0 25.7% 31.1% Daniel Turner 15 0 0 50.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 26.9% 30.1% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Sean Darcy 56 34 9 Luke Jackson 17 13 8

Pressure act differential isn't a good measure as you're likely to rank low if you have the ball more often than the opposition. Pressure rating differential would be a better measure as it's based on average pressure per disposal. This is what @binman would have been referring to. Unfortunately, I don't have access to pressure rating data, other than Melbourne for the past two seasons.