old55

Most likely Petty for Brown and Harmes for Sparrow though. They might select Hibberd and rest McVee, there might be some concern about McVee getting beaten in successive weeks by Rankine then Dusty. It will be interesting to see. I'd like to see Smith for Woewodin to add more forward defensive pressure and aerial threat but I doubt we'll see it. I think Grundy comes in for a small when Clarrie comes back.

Potential for an enormous amount of egg on face if we win this year's flag with Brodie.

Yes and North are seeking a double whammy here. First to add Sanders to their Next Gen Academy late - I think there is a case for this because AFAIK he has been involved with them for a number of years and has only recently officially established his Aboriginality. Second, to bypass the updated rule that (apart from NSW and Qld teams) you can only bid on Academy players selected after pick 40 - I actually think that rule is too restrictive if you have invested long term in the player, maybe fairer would be no points discount up to pick 40. But nevertheless it's the rule and North are trying to bypass it. FWIW, I think they'll get their way. Sanders genuinely said on Gettable he was happy to go to North, he's very god friends with Harry Sheezel and there's talk that North will select McKercher, also from Tasmania like Sanders. North need KPs, even more so if McKay leaves. Maybe they're hoping that delivers pick 3 and they can take Curtain there. That would pose a risk and problems for any trade of our Freo pick to WC for pick 1 because they wouldn't get Curtain. A fair bit to play out ...

Don't win the flag = Disaster OK

I think a big part of the reason for less turnovers in our front half is, as you intimate, because we are trying to be more attacking. Kossie is playing higher up the field so we have lost our best pressure forward deep, and Brown and Melksham coming into the team hurt us in this area because they don't add any forward pressure. Even Petracca forward hurts a bit I think. In @WheeloRatings stats post he was our highest pressure acts and points player but IMO he a surprisingly poor tackler who seems easy to wrong foot. As I posted elsewhere, it's a bit of a left-field idea, but I'd like to see Joel Smith come in for Woey and Grundy for Brown, both of whom would give more forward pressure and we'd also get more aerial threat.

I've got some very good friends who are Richmond and Collingwood supporters. Every club has annoying supporters, I think it's because Richmond and Collingwood have a lot of supporters overall, that they seem to have a greater number of annoying supporters.

If Grundy doesn't come "back into the team in coming weeks", he'll seek a trade. No [censored] Sherlock! But that's not going to happen because he will be back in the team.

That is incorrect. It's based on finishing order at the completion of finals

err ... Brayshaw and Melksham?

Good interview with Ryley Sanders on Gettable - he seems very level headed and switched on. I got the impression that he's enthusiastic about going to North via their Academy play, and he also said it would be great if he and fellow Tasmanian Colby McKercher can end up at the same AFL club - maybe an indicator that North might draft him? Would be a big investment to go for both Tasmanians with the new club starting in 2028.

All true. Both posts.

They weren't soft losses, we should have won both but for inaccurate kicking, vs Freo 10.12 to 12.7, contested 157 to 141; and vs GWS 5.15 to 7.5, contested 187 to 143.

Our Sheman Demons are reigning Premiers.

channeling @Demonstone - that's the Dogs you're thinking of.

Look I'm the "beaten up" culprit and I'm guilty of generalising Jack Viney to the entire team. Jack has been monumental across the period Clarrie has been missing and he just looked justifiably spent at the end of the Adelaide game. I think we need to persist with the attacking move of Petracca forward and that places more load on Jack, although happily this has been mitigated by Angus really stepping up in the midfield - some pretty good depth there, and Kossie playing higher. I do fear that Richmond's midfield might get a hold of us this week and will be glad to see Clarrie back and Jack get a break when it's possible. Other better judges think I'm jumping at shadows, let's hope so. "Happy to be wrong" 😀

Wrist / Hand, there's a lot of small bones in the junction between them, I suspect it's something in there.

Yes very impressed with what JVR has done but I just feel that a tall forward set of JVR, Smith and Gawndy is a stretch for the flag, even with Fritsch there. TMac just gives some experience and forward craft, but I acknowledge it's going to be hard for him to get back and get firing by finals' time, he does start slow after injury. Maybe it's impossible. I don't think BBB can deliver for us. If not TMac then like I said, JVR. I had him in my line-up until I made a final edit for the reasons above.

OK "He's finally doing what I said all along" 'chute.

Grand Final day: B: McVee May Lever Rivers Petty Salem C: Gawn Oliver Viney Langdon Petracca Hunter F: ANB J.Smith Kossie Chandler TMac Fritsch I: Bowey Brayshaw Sparrow Grundy S: Melksham This means 7 worthy players miss out: Tomlinson Hibberd Jordon Harmes Brown JVR and Spargo I'd really like to fit Hibberd in but I have McVee and Bowey ahead of him. Sub could be Harmes or Hibberd. TMac may not get up, then it's JVR.

Short legs, low centre of gravity - that's not necessarily a bad trait.

If I'm any judge Rob Harding is @Hards who used to post here before he joined the AFL working community.

It's one thing to be eternally negative, but it's another to snipe other posters for being positive like you did with @Jaded No More who has given reasons for her optimism. "Nothing funnier .." eh? Look everyone knows your prediction record is dodgy, with the lowlight being "the rugby player" - how do you reckon he's gone recently? Grow some humility.

it won't be the "end of our season" when it happens, despite the "veil of negativity" that will inevitably descend here

Despite my prediction of a loss this week I think there are changes we have made and can continue to refine to give a better overall outcome this season. We've recognised that we need to be more offensive and are playing Petracca forward and Kossie higher and this has been very effective. We probably lose against St.Kilda, Brisbane and Adelaide without these changes - well done to the FD. There has been a cost to playing Kossie higher and that's we've lost i50 defensive capability, this has been exacerbated by Brown and Melksham in for Smith and Fritsch. My suggested solution is to play Smith forward for Woey. Smith's pace and physicality provides pressure at ground level and in addition he's an aerial threat. Yes Woey has shown a nice cameo and looks a capable Jordon replacement when he leaves at the end of the year, but he's not up to speed for the pointy end of the season. People ask "why didn't we persist with Petty forward?", there's two reasons - he's great in defence with May and Lever and Ben Brown completed his mini-pre-season and was ready to go. BB has tried heroically but I don't think it's working as well as hoped. The FD will want to bring Grundy back to relieve Max who can't ruck out the season solo. We do lose forward craft with Grundy for BBB but this can be alleviated somewhat by including Smith as an aerial threat. Whether they pull the trigger on Grundy this week or wait another week remains to be seen. My forward 7 for the run home is Gawndy (BB currently), JVR, Fritsch (Melksham currently), Smith (Woey currently), ANB, Kossie, Chandler - with some strong minutes from Petracca. I don't really care if Petty comes back this week or next week for Tomlinson. Hibberd could come in for McVee or Bowey - both of whom would be stiff - but maybe McVee needs a spell for a week. It's not out of the question that Hibberd could come in for Tomlinson given Richmond have only Riewoldt and Miller as tall options but I'd prefer the 3 tall backs to prevent Lever having to go 1-on-1. I'd like to see us retain some dynamism this week in the sub and would promote Harmes who can also come on to give some midfield minutes and spare Viney. Changes: Smith for Woey and Harmes to sub Possibilities: Grundy for BBB Hibberd for McVee Petty for Tomlinson I still think we lose anyway but it sets us up better for the run home.

IMO Richmond win this. They've got very close to their best line-up available. Yes they are missing Nankervis, but Soldo is capable replacement, Lynch is a big out - I think if he was available they'd be a real threat in finals this season. They have a strong backline with Balta, Grimes, Vlaustuin, Broad and Rioli. They have their full midfield complement and it's very deep: Taranto, Prestia, Bolton, Martin, Hopper, Baker, McIntosh, Ross, Pickett, Cotchin. As above, their forward line would be much better with Lynch in, but they have sufficient dangerous avenues with Riewoldt, Martin and Bolton. They're playing for their season and we're looking beaten up - Jack Viney, who has been carrying us for weeks, needs a rest and he won't be able to get it this week. Clarrie can't come back quick enough now - we may get some respite vs North the following week. There'll be "season-over" vibes on Demonland following the match, but I don't buy into that, we're still a very decent shot at the flag despite my pessimism about this week.