old55

Nine posts from you on this. Dig in!

I love Brodie Grundy as player and man (he came across very impressively in the recent ABC doco on the 2018 Collingwood season). I'm on record rating him a superior player and more valuable than Max, which is saying something. But he won't look back on his PF performance fondly. Despite dominating Mumford all game he failed to get connection with his talented midfield. I think Max would have mixed up his tap zones much more. Brodie just seemed to drop it in close every time and it wasn't working. His last 2 minutes were particularly poor. He had an uncharacteristic ground ball fumble and lost the ruck contests 3-4 to Mummy in a concentrated stoppage battle. https://www.afl.com.au/video/featured-programs/last-two-minutes

How do you know this?

Contested possessions this finals series: WC 138 d Ess 116 Coll 136 d Geel 157 GWS 167 d Dogs 125 Rich 144 d Bris 157 Geel 151 d WC 128 GWS 131 d Bris 155 Rich 125 d Geel 145 GWS 164 d Coll 148 Average across all finals so far = 143 Average contested possessions for the year: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?advv=Y Range Port 155.6 - WC 135.8 Contrary to popular belief, including mine, it doesn't look like contested possessions go up in finals or that the team that wins the contest wins the final.

And the people at the club and who support the club are real Australian Rules people.

I could equally argue that the Gold Coast path is the norm - there's a million ways to fail and very few to succeed. The truth is somewhere in the middle and Gold Coast have done poorly while GWS have excelled. People bleat about the draft concessions that the start-ups had and how they've disadvantaged other clubs. The bottom 4 teams in 2010 - the year GC had their draft concessions were Brisbane, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast (16th) The bottom 5 teams in 2011 - the year GWS had their draft concessions were Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, Port, Gold Coast (17th) All these teams have subsequently played finals and 2 of them have won flags. The are great football people at GWS who have given blood for the cause like Alan McConnell the last coach of Fitzroy. He has been at GWS since day dot, try telling him he doesn't deserve some success.

GWS in the GF and Gold Coast on the bottom - yeah it's foolproof. I admire what they've created at GWS and I am firmly on them this week. It's the battle of the two best club songs.

Will he play though? He came in this week and 3 will have to go out if Greene, Whitfield and Coniglio play.

Caro in The Age wrote that Essendon talked to Richo about mentoring Rutten in 2020.

Whitfield is a beautiful player but I'm unsure how he likes it when it's finals hot. He was superb vs the Dogs but the Giants toasted them. He was invisible against the Lions when it was super hot. It will be fascinating to see how he goes vs the Pies.

Luke Dahlhaus went to Geelong on a reported 4 year x $500k contract and the Dogs received 2nd round compensation for him. https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/exclusive-premiership-bulldog-luke-dahlhaus-set-to-join-geelong-on-a-longterm-deal/news-story/5228f9820e74213fb9206fd4073f2fa8 https://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/2018-10-05/bulldogs-received-second-round-compensation In your quoted article it does say: "According to a Herald Sun report, the 26-year-old [Patton] is likely to sign a cut-price two-year deal in the ballpark of $360,000 per season if he is acquired by the Hawks during the AFL Trade Period." https://wwos.nine.com.au/afl/gws-giants-star-jonathan-patton-set-to-join-hawthorn/e7669d45-75c2-424c-a903-d873683467b1 There's no way that will net a 2nd round compo pick, might net a 3rd round, maybe even nothing.

Setting aside Kelly, Whitfield and Cameron, Zach Williams is probably the player I think best suits our needs. He's RFA in 2020 when the Giants have all sorts of other list issues. I'd do 3 for 12 and Williams.

Talk about contradicting yourself! In one post you're saying a club is defined by its past and now you're saying "one is only as good as your last performance"! Neither are true. Have a think about it ...

In your mind maybe, but the executive individuals at the club - the staff and players are only defined by their own careers. What happened at MFC in 1965 has NOTHING to do with what will happen in there in 2020. I know from your posting over the years that this is something you cannot understand.

55 years of no success defines you and your attitude. The current group at the club is defined by the time they've been there and what they've done in that time.

I think it's more like: Green, one of those players and 3 x 36ish picks (Green bid change plus Tomlinson pick and Patton pick assuming they're 2nd both rounders) vs Green and pick 3. If it's really Rowell, Anderson, Green then daylight - it would be line ball IMO. If I was GWS it would depend which player - e.g. Caldwell no, Cumming yes.

Good post, but Patton doesn't get them pick 18. GWS need to find picks/points for Green to capitilise on the split, which will cost them more. So Caldwell, Patton pick, Tomlinson pick and probably someone else all get swallowed up so they can get pick 3. They'd have to want it badly. I don't think I'd do it.

Assuming GC get priority pick 2 and our first pick is pick 3. GWS really have to deal with us if they want to do get ahead of any bid for Green because we can bid for him at 3, but they would need to really want the player they can get with pick 3 to do a split deal. Assuming GWS get a 2nd round compo for Tomlinson at around say pick 35 that gives them (to be confirmed): 12 (1268), 16 (1067), 35 (522), 52 (259), 76 (0) If GWS do nothing MFC bid on Green at 3 (2234), GWS have to pay 80% of that with the discount = 1787 That means they'll need to give 12 and 16 and get a pick back in change: 12 + 16 = 1268 + 1067 = 2335 And get change: 2335 - 1787 = 548 which is pick 34 If they do nothing they get: Green, 34, 36, 53, 76 So to get Green they give up 12 and 16 but get 34 back. If GWS do the pick split They get their man at 3 and then Green is bid on at 4 (2034) they still need to find 1627 points to pay for him. 35 + 52 only give them 522 + 259 = 781 They need to find 1627 - 781 = 846 more points which is equivalent to pick 22 So in reality to make the pick split pay they need both pick 3 AND pick 21 off us. They are going to have to give big time to get both those picks of us. That's why I've been suggested about 12 + 16 + Caldwell for 3 + 21. This pick split deal would give GWS: 3, Green, 76 because they need to use 21 + 35 + 52 on Green So to get pick 3 and Green they would give up 12, 16, Caldwell, 35 and 52 - like I said - they'd need to really want pick 3

You've already conceded you don't know the structure of contracts so even if he is on $2M over 4 years, he might be heavily front loaded and getting $200k in the 4th year when we need the cap space. Do those maths.

Yes now you're talking Moonie! Wait, what if Goodwin WON Tattslotto and didn't need to work any more and just quit as coach! Maybe you all should get the numbers off Moonie and buy a ticket and google it in to Goodwin so this can happen! wowee - job done, problems solved!

Frost is 309th in the league for average metres gained. He's even well behind Stretch! Salem is our best at 47th. A lot of talk here about Frost's alleged attacking abilities. I think where he showed great improvement is his defensive abilities - uses his closing speed well and can stop tall (Ben Brown) or small (Elliott). I'm dubious we'll get enough value for him in a pick trade - probably a pick in the late 20s. If we trade him I hope it's for a player we need.

As some wag said: ANB defined the new description "2 touch player"

Ironic

Trumpets go ... diddlelit, diddlelit, diddlelit, dah ... I see Cossacks dancing!

Because they get pick 3 and Green who will go at pick 4 for 11 (2018), 12 and 14.