Stu

Spot on @binman! For the doubters...from Round 10 to 13 we had four games in Melbourne with mostly seven day breaks, and that's after a game against an historically poor Eagles team (round 9). After a game of Aussie Rules football, players have run 10 to 15 km's (or more) so there's a lot of recovery needed to get players back to square one. To load during seasons involves using the training sessions right in the middle of games so there's enough time to recover after the preceding game and before the next fixture. A series of seven day breaks in your home state offers the best environment to do that. From here we play in Adelaide, Geelong, and Alice Springs. So what would you choose round 9-13 or rounds 15 to 18? The FD took a risk. If Lever holds back from the marking contest against Freo and May ISN'T concussed it's at least 50/50 that we win that game from 30 points up. From there we likely win the Swans game and maybe the Pies too. Either way, we've been leading by at least 22 points against each of those teams in the last three weeks, and perhaps haven't quite done enough to put the result beyond doubt and suffered the consequence. We may have lost three in a row, but I firmly believe that tonight's game shows that Goodwin and the FD has been playing the long game. From here we go 6-2 and finish 17-5 😎.

If you want to know why that looked like a Melbourne game, it's because the players had the endurance and capacity to play that way. If you want to know why Melbourne looked so much better than any other team in September it's in part because of our fitness and conditioning. Our ability to score is tied intrinsically to our pressure and ability to run both ways. We may lose next week against Adelaide and win against Geelong (because of the vagaries of the fixture and nothing more) but it's with the bigger picture in mind.

They’ll be announced around 6:30 tomorrow (Wednesday) might.

About 15 years ago I worked with someone who was a fairly accomplish amateur / semi-pro road (motor) bike rider (e.g. Superbikes). At the time when I worked with him, he mentored young up and coming riders. He said a big focus was on the concept of having $1 dollar of mental energy to spend. They'd assign a cost to things like gear changes (5 cents), cornering (10 cents), transitioning between turns (20 cents). He'd get them to rate it after 5 laps and than again after 25. The cost would always be higher the more fatigued they were. The learning for them was to get better and better at those skills to reduce the cost to properly execute them. This meant that fatigue had less impact resulting in a more consistent performance from start to finish. By way of comparison, this Dees team has had issues with delivery into the F50. With coaching and a lot of practise they've improved, but at their core they remain somewhat unskilled or inconsistent in this area. During a period of heavy loading players have less mental energy and focus due to fatigue, so unless they're naturally very gifted at F50 entries the quality of decision making is likely to be impacted. Unless it's second nature (from skill formed at a young age), fatigue will impact the execution and decision making with any aspect of the game. We saw very poor F50 entries happen during the Collingwood and GWS game last year, and we've seen it in the second half against Freo and Sydney, and most of the game last week.

You've mentioned it in the pod many times the last few weeks but I similarly look to the fitness during the first 8 rounds to remind myself that we're clearly loading. In Round 4, Sparrow getting the ball at half back and ending with him beating multiple GWS players inside 50 to slap the ball to Fritsch for a goal. In the same play a GWS player falls down to his knees from exhaustion at the goal line and he was closer to goal then Sparrow was when the play started. In Round 8, late in the fourth quarter with the game won, Spargo makes two tackles in about 5 seconds and another Dees player (can't remember) makes similar repeat efforts that thwarts an attempted forward entry. You don't lose that level of fitness in a few weeks.

I was a bit ham-fisted with my explanation. In Olympic sports that are of an endurance nature, I've heard commentators call out why a particular athlete has gone out extremely hard and/or faded heavily in races (even predicting it on occasions). They'll mention that they're trying to peak for a particular event (maybe the World Championships or Olympics) and they'll sacrifice their performance in that event to use it as a way to get in some load training whilst in a competitive environment. The aim may be to improve a particular section within the race, like starting or finishing more aggressively. With team sports, this becomes more complex but offers the opportunity to spread loading across different players and in different ways to try to maintain competitiveness. Given the 5 day breaks in between the Lions and Cats games, any heavier loading in the lead up to those games would increase the chances of soft tissue injuries occurring. However, if the time on ground (TOG) and the intensity during the game is modified players could essentially receive a loading session within the game. This could be a player playing with really high intensity in Q2 and Q3 and then spending less TOG or in a more passive role at other times. Players could also tag team where one of them is at high intensity, while the other is resting. There may be evidence of this last year where the TOG for players was quite variable through the second block of loading. The 9 and 10 day breaks after those two games then allows for heavier loading between those games so players are getting consistent high intensity aerobic sessions around 4 or 5 days apart. Speaking of Olympic sport commentators, it's so nice to hear the insider knowledge of former athletes about loading and preparation. About 95% of footy commentators are ex-players but none of them offer that sort of insight.

I agree that against the Pies he was invisible. He performed better against the Swans (4 marks and a goal assist) and was better than the other Brown. But the main reason I think he'll be included (as we now have confirmation that Daw is injured) is that the FD don't like to change the structure (2 talls, Fritsch, and 3 small pressure forwards). They could include JVR and I'd personally be excited to see that, but I just doubt they'll do that at this stage of the year. They have often spoke about trying to be calm across the entire FD and we haven't seen reactive team changes for a long time. Goodwin constantly talks about belief in the 'system' - for this reason I can't see him changing the forward structure and/or bringing in a first year player with less than 10 VFL games under his belt.

If Daw is injured or unavailable for selection, I imagine we will go with May in for Turner, Weed in for Gawn, and Tomlinson in as sub. This will keep our structure consistent with how it has been all year. Weed will play Jackson’s usual role of second ruck/resting forward like he did against the Hawks. If Daw is selected I believe Weed will come in to replace Mitch Brown. Further, if Daw is suffering from mental health concerns right now, I’m really happy for the club to give him all the time and support he needs. The guy has literally stood at the precipice and stared down his own existence. The result of a game of sport pales into insignificance.

I imagine the FD saw us at 8-0 coming up against an historically terrible Eagles, followed by 4 straight games in Melbourne to lead into the bye and determined it was best to try to make use of those fixtures to begin their loading regime. There was a lot of 7 day breaks and then the 9 day break into the QB game. Enough time to have the heavy training sessions right in the middle between games and hope that the fatigue levels were manageable. Like you, @binman, I think it's a certainty to continue after the bye. However given our two non-consecutive Thursday night games I imagine we'll see something like: Players returning tomorrow from the break, makes it tough to load up and not be fatigued for Thursday night. I imagine a more moderate training into the game vs the Lions The 9 day break into Round 16 vs Crows offers more time to have a heavier training load The 5 day break into Round 17 vs Cats will likely see an easier week on the training track, as the game itself will act as a heavy training session being so close to the previous game. The 10 day break into Round 18 vs Port again offers enough time to load up once again Their is then a 6 day break into the Round 19 game vs the Doggies - this one could go either way. The coincidence of playing the Dogs for a second time in Round 19 exactly like last year is an amazing coincidence! I think we will see energised performances against the Lions and Cats, and sluggish performances against the Crows and Port, and possible the Dogs. We could win or lose any of them but that's just my guess as to how the team will look during those games.

That's what I keep reasoning on... we're 10-3 (and 10-0) despite dropping down the ratings of pressure and defence. It means that if / when we improve those areas of our game we will be humming. I'm of the belief that our lack of pressure is by design due to the shorter pre-season and the quirks of the fixture, and that the style from last year will be reintroduced in the last third of the year.

In the VFL game on Sunday he was flat footed at contests (like he can often be) but instead of just letting his opponent mark it, he lunged desperately into 3 contests (that I saw) and effected the spoil. Two of those occasions led directly to goals. I imagine that’s the “big man” game type stuff Goody has instructed him to work on. Hopefully he can replicate that at AFL level.

Matt Taberner is an interesting comparison. Is 28 and is averaging 2.3 goals this season, much better than any of his previous years. He also showed glimpses of quality at times and similarly frustrated Freo supports by his lack of consistency.

Great analogy! Burgess left Liverpool FC because he felt there wasn’t much for him to do as they were playing a game every 3-4 days most weeks keeping them match sharp with minimal training. The recovery was also more gentle than compared to AFL (game length and ground size being shorter, and less physicality). Basically once the season started things took care of themselves more or less. With AFL, the break between games is tougher to manage the balance between recovery and keeping players fitness at the required level. Hence the impact of loading to get players back to peak fitness at the right time of year.

Exactly. Not all teams will load (heavily or at all) because their position on the ladder doesn’t allow it. If you’re 7-5 after round 12 you can’t afford to risk dropping another 3-4 games post bye. Being 9-0 last year and 10-0 this year has given the FD the luxury of planning for the last third of the season now. I wonder if the team will have a lighter load this week to help get a win and not enter the bye on three straight losses. I doubt it, but it will be interesting to keep an eye as the game unfolds.

It's been interesting to see how we've changed from a forward pressure defensive team, to a more passive defence that relies on structure and absorbing momentum. Do you think it's to do with playing a style that will get wins while (firstly) building fitness in the early part of the year after a shorter and interrupted pre-season (COVID), and then (secondly) while the training loads ramp up in the mid-part of the year (where we are now)? Is this by design (not losing, just the game strategy) and that fatigue is to blame for the lack of polish? Or is it bad habits creeping in that haven't been arrested? In almost every game this year we've played that dynamic and aggressive style for small parts of the game that has gotten us out to a 4-6 goal lead, and then we've tried to control the tempo and absorb pressure. Even against Freo and the Swans we got out to a decent lead off the back of that style in Q2 and Q1 respectively, but we're unable to maintain that lead (without May).

Well that game has me not worried about either of these sides.