Nairobi_Demon

In B. Brown Out Sparrow Viney replaced Weideman, which is not like-for-like, and thus this change would rebalance the team.

Fascinating, thanks for sharing. I watched a bit of the dogs-cats match last night and noticed the dogs seemed to slip over a lot more than the Geelong players. I also remember us slipping over a lot in Adelaide. I wonder if this is related to transitioning from higher to lower quality turfs, or just different style turfs?

This is my best estimate also, but when I put this in the AFL predictor it gives us 4th place with Geelong, Lions and the Dogs just above us by either one game or percentage. Suggests with those results we could finish anywhere from 1-4 depending on other team results and %. To get our percentage up higher we need to sort out our forward line, could be the difference between a home or away (in Geelong or Brisbane) final in round 1 of the finals.

He kicked 5 goals in his first three games back from a long injury break and it’s now come out that his body wasn’t ready. If he can bag 5 when his body isn’t right and he’s still get used to the team, I’d love to see what he can do when his body is right and he’s settled with the team.

This really is the crux of it for me: the lack of leadership and blame shifting. The federal government has avoided taking decisions and actions to get ahead of this pandemic, including investing in quarantine, advance purchasing of vaccines, proactive vaccination communication campaigns, investing in mRNA manufacturing capacity, etc. because it found itself in a political sweet spot where it could blame any outbreaks (downside risks) on states and avoid the optics of failing to achieve actions that would keep us ahead of this thing (the way vaccine targets are now being fudged is the exception that proves the point). Yes, there’s uncertainty with all those actions, but as Binman has clearly outlined the costs of lockdowns greatly outweigh the costs of action. But clearly the federal government weighed up the political cost and benefits differently, and decided it was politically expedient to do little. It’s not how I’d want my football club run and I bet the Dees are where they are today because previous and current leaders took risks, set targets and were prepared to be held accountable for moving this club forward.

I’ve asked this question myself too, 5 goals in his first three matches after returning from a long injury hiatus is very decent. Btw, Weideman has kicked 3.4 from 4 outings, not 4.3, which further strengthens your argument.

The bottom-line is that Weideman has kicked 3 goals from 4 outings, an average of 0.75 per game, and there’s a player on the team that kicked 5 goals from 3 outings or 1.66 per game, 120% more. That’s the difference between a 17 goal full season and 38 goal full season. We should absolutely keep Weideman on the list if he wants to stay, but mid way through the season we genuinely don’t know for sure whether BBB or Weideman are better for the side (I personally lean BBB based on those 5 goals but concede there’s uncertainty). Weideman has been given a good run. BBB needs another run while there’s still time, including time for Weideman to come back in if indeed BBB doesn’t deliver.

True, but if I recall correctly the Phase I/II Pfizer/BioNTech results were published in August last year indicating that this was likely to be an effective technology. That’s 10 months ago. But for me it’s really about risk, what was the risk of dropping $100m on mRNA vs what was the potential upside? Given the huge economic costs of the pandemic, 100m seems a small price to pay for a bet on a new technology. The benefits of which have now been clear for at least six months and probably more.

This still baffles me. Respected scientists were advocating for government investment in mRNA manufacturing capacity since June last year. Apparently it is not that expensive - maybe $100m to get going - and the technology is thought to have significant other benefits, including cancer treatment. What’s the downside of making this investment? Correct me if I’m wrong, but the only commitment to invest in mRNA that I’ve seen was the $50m the Vic Govt announced about two months ago. We’re likely to need COVID variant vaccines/boosters in the next few years, mRNA is the most adaptable technology, why aren’t we jumping on this? Edit: this article dated just this past Monday indicates the government has just now invited proposals for establishing mRNA manufacturing capacity. Surely this could have been done at least six months ago even not longer and surely three years to establish production is not sufficiently ambitious in the context and given others have argued it could be done in 12 months. https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/government-makes-no-promises-as-it-looks-for-mrna-producers-20210524-p57uix.html

Does this seem very high to others? And any idea where to find this stat for previous games? I found turnovers, which doesn’t seem that different to previous matches, but not “scores from turnovers”.

Brown had 5 goals in three games. Weidemen has 1 in two games. He needs to kick 4 this week to break even. Only if they’re breaking even or thereabouts would I consider the pressure act stats you mention. I just want goals from those two! Agree that Jetta should be dropped regardless of Salem’s fitness. Indeed, it’s not at all clear to me that Jetta is Salem’s replacement.

Did you see the post game interview, he was unhappy.

Hi LN, re-watched the last quarter. He was definitely on the field. Gee it was frustrating, so many fumbles, slip ups, poor decisions. They were rattled.

Ah, that makes sense. I’d always thought the heat map tracked movement and the blue dots possessions, but now that I look carefully at someone with possessions it’s clear the map radiates out from the dots. Thanks for clarifying that, LN.

Did he even get on the field in the final quarter? The AFL app player tracker has no heat map for him in the final quarter and suggests he was 100% in defensive half. Seems odd. See screenshots:

I also can’t understand the calls for dropping Fritsch. He’s our top goal kicker in 2019, 2020 and is our leading goal kicker this year. Sure, he didn’t have a great game but he has a clear record. Given today’s Casey game, it’s hard to see any changes to the forward line. Perhaps there was some arrangement that BB and Weidemen would each get a three game run. BB managed 2, 3 and 0 goals, the last in a very crowded forward line. Weidemen is 0 and 1 thus far. That means Weidemen would need 4 goals next week to equal BB’s contribution.

The final one was on Hibberd IMO, he got in Oliver’s way

Agree. Weidemen has one KPI and one KPI only, kicking goals. I couldn’t care less about the odd tackle.

I agree. I wish people would stop making excuses for Weidemen. He and Clarry are both high 2015 draft picks, six years to hone their craft, and look at the difference in their performances today.

Not going to blame the umpires, it should never have been so close. We’re too reliant on our defence

I think I may be only person to have have selected other ? I don’t really see Jackson as a real forward. Don’t get me wrong, he’s done a fantastic job with Brown and Weid out. He kicks the odd goal and has brought the ball to ground but his real damage is functioning as a mid around stoppages (and freeing Gawn in the early rounds). And am still not convinced we can play Brown, TMac, Fritsch and Weidemen in the forward line with or without Jackson in the side. Could we replace his mid role with Sparrow, let TMac ruck in the forward half, and let Gawn handle the Center Bounces and back half stoppages? Given Jackson’s incredible versatility, I guess it depends on which of his roles we really need to replace to match up with the blues. I don’t think we need his forward role. The Sparrow option wouldn’t free up Gawn, but it would give us more options to rectify the centre clearance deficit. Majak would be my second vote. Frees Gawn and avoids too many changes to our forward line.

Bravo A F. I read every word of this and learnt a lot. Thanks!

Perhaps Binman is having a Sparrow-Swallow moment ?

For me, I click on stats in the top bar and then click AFL StatsPro. I think that’s what Binman is referring too. I’ve also not been able to find ProVision - perhaps that was an earlier name for this tool?

Harsh DS, but I agree that our midfield is just not working. It has regressed in the past two weeks. We’ve mostly corrected the bees at honey tendency this season, but it seems that with Viney out everyone is a little unsure who goes for the ball. Perhaps that was Harmes’s role today but he just doesn’t make good, fast decisions when he gets it (I’d like to watch every centre bounce of the game - perhaps that’s possible on the AFL StatsPro site). With Viney out another week, we need to try something a little different next week. Unbelievably it’s the weakest part of our game.