Altona-demon

It's hardly bizarre - the instincts of all these three players was to crash and get the ball (no problems there) the deficiencies in all their games is disposing of the footy (the arguably more important part of the equation). If you think about it, getting the ball, and then disposing of it poorly is almost more painful then not getting the ball given your teammates once they see you get the ball start to move forward on that trigger. It's an interesting debate on "what sort of ball you want to get from stoppages". I think the clear answer is clean post-clearance ball, chaining out of stoppage. Inside -> outside. Unfortunately, our team more often than not, goes inside to bomb forward, and it's just not damaging at all. I've said elsewhere on DL that i'd prefer Jack to just not kick the back, and get caught trying to find the outside runner.

In some ways its quite a remarkable achievement of coaching. To have been able coach out natural instincts in this way. Watch the JVR draft footage: Welcome to Melbourne: Jacob Van Rooyen highlights | 2021 NAB AFL Draft | AFL. Some interesting things you can see: Playing on back shoulder there even at a younger age. Look at the mobility off fullback, halfback, around the stoppage, use of handball, field kicking. All things we don't see enough of from JVR. You can see the thinking from the coaching team by playing him as a ruck, but you watch the tape and you can see a high CHF / Curnow style player in Jacob. Assuming our strategy is as we perceive it to be, based largely on contest, repeat entries, forward half-turn over etc would have two difficulties in my mind. First, it would have an inherent use-by-date, which is to say it would become v. dry for the players / difficult to repeat it over time with aging bodies (perhaps what we are seeing now from our famed midfield brigade. Second, it must be super de-motivating to hear that this is going to be your forward half strategy when you are watching other forward groups playing objectively better (on the eyes, and in the output) forward half footy.

Agree - one thing that occurred to me the other day while watching us just smash the ball forward at all costs, was why the hell did we hire Nathan Jones? I mean I love the guy. But why is this guy coaching our midfield unit? There are a number of reasons why this guy was a bad idea: Lack of experience - did he only just get his tickets, and then he is handed the keys to our engine room? He's not independent - we need a bloke who is nowhere mates with these guys. He's not good enough (yet) - he just can't be by reason of his lack of experience. So then it starts to feel like, why the heck did we do this? Here's an interesting trend in the good teams at clearance, look how often they try to ride tackles compared to the Dees. Look how they defend the Dees. Two things might occur to you: Everyone sits outside the ball and just sharks the contested ball win from Viney, Oliver, Gawn. You don't even need to tackle, you just get free ball. We over invest into contest and they sit outside and wait for the poor disposal. On the flipside, they absorb our weak defensive tackling at contest and then create outnumbers on the outside. I would ABSOLUTELY love to see our boys caught holding the ball more, if it meant they were taking an extra split second to hit an outside option and win a good POST clearance. Any one of our outside mids would be a better bet to connect into F50 then our inside mid brigade bombing it forward.

Yeah perhaps - i'd see that as a tactical fix. It's the complete absence of "easy patterns for goals" that's just frustrating I suppose. I don't want to say we don't have a pattern (we clearly do) it's just that our pattern is so grindingly boring and ineffective. That we keep deploying it is just incredible. These players would have grown up year after year, leading out to the ball, ticking back, moving, hitting up targets, yet none of these skills are being deployed.

Agreed - an astute observation. The question for the club is what side of the ledger (Yin or Yang) do we want to be? My gut feel is that you are right, and that if we can find the way to address this I think we win in the medium to long-term. Some observations along the lines of what you are suggesting with the higher press (is that similar to Richmond 2018-2020 btw?): 1. The umpiring of HTB is allowing players to ride tackles longer, which means forward half pressure and tackling as a tactic has become less effective. Players are getting better at spreading at the right time, decision making, meaning defending the open expanses of a football ground is becoming much harder. This is equally hard for the zone to adjust as "triggers" for spreading are becoming harder for defenders to follow, this is becoming apparent with Melbourne as teams "run through" our zone. Would be interested to analyse the scoring patterns of the good teams, when they match up against good defending teams.

There's an overriding assumption in this thread that "copying" the modern template will be the answer to the woes we are currently experiencing as a team. With this assumption comes the rationalisation of draft picks potential / alignment to that assumption. The first order question is whether we should copy (i don't think so), or whether we should pick the gameplan that will in 2-3 years be the new dominant style. I believe it was Sam Mitchell that noted that his challenge when coming to the Hawks was not to copy the then current dominant style, contested defence zone that Melbourne had mastered, but to define what would be copied next. I think we can all agree he's been sucessful in this. My question, does Goody have that sort of innovation in his kit bag?

Our challenges in the forward line, in my humble view, are not personnel based. We need to move on from considering the personnel inside a system, to considering a system level analysis of what is going inside that forward line. And what inevitably goes on inside the forward 50, is a direct product of what goes on between the halfway line and the half-forward line. JVR, Turner, Fullarton, Johnson, all should just be capable of being rotated in and out of clear roles. What is hurting Melbourne at the moment, is that our system of entering the forward half is now behind the cutting edge systems that were put in place 2-3 years ago by Hawthorn, Collingwood, GWS etc. The question for us as a club, is whether we copy, or innovate. We are playing catch up at a system level, which is why we all must suffer the rhetoric every pre-season of "we are changing the way we play, you will see more changes" etc. We've been left behind. As a humble observer of this football club for the last 6-7 years, it's so clear that our "method" is to try and enter the forward 50, deep and into the pockets, with a focus on contest and quantity over quality. You wonder whether someone in the stats department has got a grip on gameday strategy on the basis of some silly "forward 50's -> scores ratio" or something similar. What is deeply troubling for us as a team, is we do not generate any easy f50 goals. It's always so laboured for us. No tick leads, no kicks across half-forward to generate leading patterns (ala Geelong), no observable blocking patterns from any of our forwards for any either jumping forwards (like JVR), no identifiable leading lanes (either creating negative space, or leading into space positively and with intent). It's this last one that I can't get my head around, this is just movement. Sitting deep in the forward 50 with boots like concrete doesn't help the midfield. Demanding this (!) midfield to draw fowards into space is simply not going to happen. The forwards must be more dynamic, more demanding, and must be grilling midfielders when they aren't honouring leads. Put simply, there's an absolute dearth of leadership in that forward half.

As someone mentioned somewhere else on this site, and I thought it was an erudite observation, its one thing to have good kicks in your team. It's another to make sure you have them in the right places. Having Bowey making a good kick over a half-forward's head to a winger in your own d50 doesn't impact the scoreboard, as exactly the same kick would have entering the forward 50. For reasons I cannot fathom, we have not done the following: played Christian Salem off the back off offensive forward half stoppage enough. We have not overlapped off halfback enough either by bringing in Bailey Laurie as a running contesting offensive halfback, or using Jake Bowey more prominently in that role. We have instead kicked across halfback. The muscle memory in the team is telling. Every single player in the team is unable to play on quickly - i forgive them it would take concerted coaching to change this - and you can tell it hasn't been done. We simply have not done enough work to make a new plan work at the highest level. When placed under pressure our micro-moments, our structure, reverts to a brand that has been worked out thoroughly by our opposition. And the thing that frustrates me is that this reticence to play the new style is clearly not widespread in the squad, its becoming far to regular to watch Trent Rivers get ignored by Jake Lever or Tom McDonald on the overlap. Give the ball and get some speed on it.

Yeah I think there are numerous channels that are screwing us over at this point, I think we probably need to work back from the outcome we are trying to achieve with this wee militia, and then probably strategise - and probably ideally off these channels where media lackeys are most definitely lurking.

Count me in - let's do this.

It wouldn't be the worst thing to invest in some change at the top to refresh the list, while we still have 2-3 years of the list's peak years. The challenge will be the adjustment cost we will need to pay in performance to manage that change. One possible side-effect of Goody's "great" relationship with all the players is unfortunately this adjustment cost premium will be higher for the club to pay. Similarly, given the boys club network of the AFL/elite football in Australia it's hard to identify a suitable candidate that is capable of taking a list with our shape (experienced and aging top-end with existing beliefs) to the next level. Taking these things together, it's probably time to start planning for life after Goody - although i'd argue it would be hasty to make any more changes in season. On reflection, I believe the changes they've tried to make in-season have backfired immensely. Again, our heavy (3 years +) focus on the defensive phase and so-called "Melbourne Zone" has just meant that the adjustment cost to play a new game-style have been too high, and in fact in a sign of desperation the captain of the ship through them overboard to get back to results. It's not hard to see why version 1 of this list (contested inside heavy) to version 2 (contested inside heavy + strong team based defence) worked well. We have a limited list in terms of speed, skill, and most importantly vision. Trying to evolve the game-plan to play a vision based, skill-based game was a hell of a bet given who we have in our team. Further, such a change in a competition that is SO close, was also a hell of a bet. The far safer (and simpler thing to do) would have been to back the stats in and go with the same gameplan one more time.

Got a mate coming from interstate - is it completely impossible to get two tickets now? I am a club member, not AFL or MCC, they are the same.

Agree with all of this - Carlton seem to be playing the same style that we have employed for a long time, just with better forwards. For the record I think they will be very very competitive this year. Good onball contest bombing forward to those three (TDK, McK, Curnow - with some good crumbers in Fantasia and Motlop) will stand up in the pointy end. Agree Weitering accounts for maybe even spoiling of JVR's contested marks - but hopefully let's see if he can continue this form. I think a byproduct of the way we are playing (Ie to the corner, and then looking inboard for the handball to the overlapping runner) is that the original contest (ie from the 45 degree kick to the corner of the centre square) has the positive effect of drawing in a half back or two creating a space inside 30 and at a good angle to goal. I've watched the tape a couple of times - and you can see this effect, especially where JvR and Schache lead to the pocket (usual pattern) which stretches the space a bit more. Would love to see the HFs mark a lot here - granted it does take a good kicker on the run to be able to hit that up - good thing Salem is playing in the midfield lol.

A couple of summary notes after watching the game on delay last night: 1. Clear desire to make the 45 degree kick to the top corners of the centre square, win the contest, and then (even blind sometimes) play the lateral handball back into the corridor. On numerous occassions the player at the back of the contest would then run that outside (inside) lane on the corridor and pick up the loose ball. Was a very nice pattern - but was a little alarmed we showed it so many times tbh. 2. Inside50 marks - aside from the obvious darting low kicks which were commented on ad nauseam by King et co, there was a clear ability (and willingness) to find the shallow inside 50 marks - which worked well against Carlton who were very set up for Melbourne offence from 2021, 22, 23 (ie deep and to the pockets). Given the ability of our small HFs to kick over 40m quite easily (sans Spargo) this could be quite an effective tactic. 3. Now some personal perspectives on strong games: - Bailey Laurie - wow, I didn't know he had that sort of game on the inside, but his competitiveness and cleanness in the phonebox particularly his ability to get inside and just provide the short handball to Salem was on show repeatedly. Very impressed. - Pickett looks ready to absolutely explode this year - Neal-Bullen consistent again and so good as a barometer for our overall effort both ways. Very impressed. - Van Rooyen is ridiculously good for his age - we are so lucky to have him. 4. Final one - it was interesting how Christian Petracca looked in that midfield set up (Jack Viney too) - it seemed more cohesive to me - sometimes I feel like Christian is in everything a bit much and the group isn't that damaging, whereas it felt like the midfield GROUP was very very damaging and Spaz and Salem got the chocolates. I think the outside/inside balance might finally be getting there after god knows how many years lol.

Tbh we are contested heavy - and the OIiver injury really showed us that Tom Sparrow can step up and provide cover there. I wouldn't be against balancing our list with one of our midfield bulls coming out for some more finesse/tall forwards.

Chandler two misses hurt (and they were both very close). Most times Kosi kicks his two as well (that first set shot was abysmal). So that's four on my count. Plus Nibbler's goal (and set shot miss) - that's potentially six. Finally Petracca when resting forward managed to get two goal scoring shots. That means eight opportunities from smaller forwards in our line. I think that puts the team in a pretty good position. I think one dynamic we need to explore more once Clayton returns, is the impact of Petracca resting forward and what it does for defensive / stoppage / forward structure. He's really like another athletic mid-forward - and a pretty impossible match-up if we can get him one on one or near a groundball.

I think it's pretty hard to argue that Kosi had a good game against Collingwood. Spargo obvs. got subbed, and Chandler was only a bit better. Nibbler really plays as a hybrid mid-fielder anyway - and all our smalls have room to improve. But suggesting that Smith can play as a small forward ignores the fact that he is 1.91 m tall and clearly a third tall option. Fwiw I quite like the look of Petty, Van Rooyen, Smith - and I hope they give it a crack at some stage.

While the defensive aspect of a forward's game is important, so is their ability to crumb and impact around stoppage. I don't think Smith is going to replace those functions.

Let's not gloss over the fact however that the forwards clearly failed the mental test on numerous shots in this game. Fritsch, Kossie, and Smith - all failed to convert under significant pressure. Great practice for what will come in September.

I think Jordy was more making an insight (which I tend to agree with) that the quality of entries into forward 50 suffers because of the lack of connection. Numerous examples of this last night - Fritsch and JVR on the same ball springs to mind, Kossie flying rather than crumbing. As Goody said on AFL 360, this is a young forward line with some new entrants - connection and managing space and leads is going to take time. I agree with you that the quantity is not an issue.

Way off it i'm afraid. Possessions as a measure for a full back is not a good measure. If he scores high on possession the team is not functioning well upfield. The team is functioning upfield, so he doesn't touch it as much. The thing with Turner when you watch him, as I have all year, is that his class/poise and disposal are already elite at the VFL level - and without doubt stand out. You then add to this his clear mongrel bastard attitude and reading of the game, and it's really no surprise that he is in the AFL frame. Speaking of frame - his is one that can really develop in an AFL environment, and while much is said of JVRs weight gain frame etc, I think that ultimately TURNER will be bigger and stronger than him - the gains Turner has made since he came into the club looking like a McGovern type are extraordinary. I have no doubt we are looking at another country kid ala Jordan Lewis who in a professional environment (winning environment) will really really grow well. He's gone past Tomlinson - who also unfortunately has ZERO upside.

Howes is every bit that player tbh. He looks very special in the way he reads the game. Just has a knack of popping up in the right spot. Good over head, good kick - just need to work on the tank.

I selected n14 - and it gave me M14 - grrrrr. Still got my tickets GO DEES!

How many things can this bloke win - it's getting ridiculous.

You are amazing - thanks mate ! So so helpful! GO DEES!