Pickett2Jackson

1 hour ago, Better days ahead said:

Hoping the Suns can ambush the doggies today. And i wouldn't mind seeing Port come unstuck either although the downside will be a week of the media pumping Carlton's tyres.

GWS can knock off the Swans

Imagine we were the only undefeated team left after this round  ?

Hope Jeremy Howe enjoys our march up the ladder while Collingwood are on the verge of complete collapse.

11 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

No.1 draft picks haven't exactly had the best run of late have they?

Watts

Scully

Boyd

McCartin

Patton

 

Just the ones that come to mind. Different reasons and nothing personal as a whole.

 Doggies fans would love Boyd.

Reckon they will play Sparrow and Rivers will be the sub. Just a guess.

1 hour ago, Tim said:

No Nev.

Hibbo in for Jetta then.

The right move. We need Hibbo in the team,  its possible that Nev needs a freshen up, his form hasn't been bad.

5 goals to Allen and Darling.  Been while since a Demon kicked 5 in a game.. maybe not since McDonald kicked 6 in 2019.

Oscar Allen, Ben King, Max King, Harry McKay, Aaron naughton, Mitch Georgiades...

The way the game is changing to suit key forwards all the kids above are in for some huge goal hauls and will kick a lot of goals in their careers. 

Hoping Luke Jackson can start sticking his marks and kicking goals soon like the above mentioned.

1 hour ago, BoBo said:

This isn’t strictly about Melbourne, just more of a general question, if not allowed, mods please delete and apologies.

I can think of quite a few forwards who were Ok or average at best, then get sent down back and turn into absolute guns (Howe and Dunn are prime examples)... BUT... I’m wondering are there any dedicated defenders that went forward and turned into gun forwards?

 

Go dees!

Getting in ahead of Harrison Pettys 5 goal haul this Sunday.  Very wise man!

10 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

Loving watching the power forwards with the new rule changes. Darling tonight is a joy to watch. Physical, clunking marks, and that pure straight run up. 

Big Bad Benny Brown is coming.

6 minutes ago, Darkhorse72 said:

Pie pushing the weagles early in the game.  Looking much bette tonight and the weagles don't look up at the moment. interesting 2nd coming up. 

Eagles dropping games at home will make it hard for them to make finals.  They seem a bit rattled from last weeks big choke.

On 3/24/2021 at 6:42 PM, Altona-demon said:

What do we reckon 13 wins for finals?

Good to have one knocked off and 12 to go if that is the case. 

Looking at our draw - and the performance of Adelaide last weekend doesn't fill with me a high amount of confidence about banking those two wins. 

So that leaves me with the following split at this very early stage:

Probables

North in Tas - Round 7

Essendon - MCG - Round 15

GC - Metricon - Round 19

Possibles

St Kilda Round 2

Hawks Round 5

GWS - ACT - Round 3

Swans MCG - Round 8

Adelaide - SA - Round 10

Collingwood - Round 13

Giants - Round 16

Hawks - Round 18

Adelaide - Round 22

Unlikely

Richmond Round 6

Geelong - Round 4

Carlton - MCG - Round 9

Doggies - Round 11

Brisbane - Round 12

Port Adelaide - Round 17

Doggies - Round 20

West Coast - Round 21

Geelong - Round 23

Based on the above, i've applied a 50% win rate to the Possibles, and a 25% win rate for the Unlikely section.

This leaves our potential win count at: 3 probables, 4 possibles (rounding down), and 2 unlikely wins (again round down). That leaves us with 9 wins - or typically around 10th in a 23 round season. 

I've highlighted in ORANGE the possibles I think are most likely to be the 4 wins, and then in RED the possibles which shape as big swing games (ie getting our win rate above the 50% and potentially into the 8). Notably this week's St Kilda game shapes as one of those in my opinion. 

I've also highlighted in PURPLE in the probables the game I think is the biggest banana skin for the club thats the North Melbourne game in Tasmania.

In the Unlikely Section - i've highlighted in ORANGE the two games I think we could get unlikely wins in - and in RED again a game we might be able to win to get us into the 8. You'll see I quite like the look of the NT fixture with Brisbane - and we have had Carlton's measure last few years - but gee they looked better than us against a much better opposition. I think we could steal one of the Geelong fixtures - probably not the GMHBA fixture in round 23, because, well we know how this team performs under finals pressure at the end of the season. Round 4 with Danger still out looms as a big game for the MFC. 

So, long story short, I don't think we've got the wins to get there this year.  But, if we can beat Geelong in Rd 4, and St Kilda next round, we may give ourselves a fighting chance.

 

 

 

Good news AD,  since you posted after the Round 1 win we have knocked off 2 from the possibles column (GWS, Saints)  and 1 from the unlikely column  (Cats).

A bit of a prediction..... Angus Brayshaw who is finding form and fitness after an interrupted preseason to be BOG in a sterling performance that reminds everyone why he went at pick 3 in the draft.

47 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

lets not talk like we've done something. we've made the finals once in 15 years. good grief.

Didn't know there was a new rule where we cant discuss other teams on this forum.

Thanks for the heads up!

7 minutes ago, Demons1858 said:

I had the same thought P2J, hopefully our players aren't thinking the same thing as we are ... should be a smashing really!

Yes.   This game is the scariest so far.   We have head full of steam and playing a bottom 4 side.

8 minutes ago, Demons1858 said:

B: Sam Frost, Kyle Hartigan, Changkuoth Jiath
HB: Jarman Impey, Blake Hardwick, Michael Hartley
C: Dylan Moore, Jaeger O'Meara, Harry Morrison
HF: Luke Breust, Chad Wingard, Tim O'Brien
F: Tyler Brockman, Mitch Lewis, Dan Howe
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Tom Mitchell, James Worpel
Interchange: Jack Scrimshaw, Tom Phillips, Jonathon Ceglar, Liam Shiels

 

Is that their VFL side?    We cant lose to this mob surely.....  

53 minutes ago, Dannyz said:

I love and almost always agree with the posts of @Jaded - Would love to hear her in podcast form 

Id rather hear any of the Demonland sisters on the airwaves than BT, Brayshaw, Jobe Watson, Luke Darcy, Cameron Ling, Basil, Hamish ....  I will stop there the list is just too long.

1 hour ago, Vagg said:

BBB is a dead spit of my niece -- except BBB has longer hair!  LOL

PM me her number please

4 hours ago, Pollyanna said:

Is Brett Ratten the right guy?

Ratten is a great assistant coach.  I think he will regret taking the Saints job.

14 hours ago, Cards13 said:

Good to see it will be live so I can settle in to watch it while the youngest naps, then I can head over to a hawks mates house and smash his Holgate Brewery beers for the big game.

 Fantastic stuff.   All eyes on Big Benny Brown (and a few others).

33 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

25 and unders are okay - billings, marshall, steele, howard, butler, gresham, clark, coffield, bytel, king all should be good long-term afl players

but they're all a bit...vanilla, maybe?

They are like watching paint dry.   Hopefully they dont get near finals.

13 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

why would Jordon only be given 56% game time. 

Maybe he was sore.  We couldn't sub him out as we already used our sub.

3 minutes ago, Better days ahead said:

St Kilda are not very good. Will finish in the bottom 6 i reckon and have traded all their picks away. 

Forget the Saints we have to play this Richmond mob in 10 days minus May and Fritta.  ?

No point even caring if this game is tough and brutal as Richmond have somehow scammed an extra 3 day break than us anyway.

56 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

TWO OPTIONS

T Mac and LJ/Gawn as the key forwards.   This robs us of using Gawn across half back in Mays absence.

or

Bring in Mitch Brown or Majak Daw to play forward.

Option C (which I cant take credit for)

Bring in Hibberd for May as the Hawks will likely have a small forward line,   play Petty forward

TWO OPTIONS

T Mac and LJ/Gawn as the key forwards.   This robs us of using Gawn across half back in Mays absence.

or

Bring in Mitch Brown or Majak Daw to play forward.