Accepting Mediocrity

So basically, he's more or less copied the 2019 ladder and then listed the forward line of each club. No doubt he would have had us in the top 4 at the start of the year. Things change quickly. But ranked about right, god our forwardline was awful...

True, but the ridiculous skills on display in that vision are all under virtually non-existent pressure. I'd like to see more evidence that he can be clean around congestion, win his own ball and bury someone in a tackle. Yes, I'm still feeling burned by every outside mid we've drafted this decade that looks similarly Burgoyne-eske in 3 minute videos. And yes, I am basing my highly uninformed opinion on a couple of meaningless highlight videos. Wouldn't be disappointed if we drafted him, I'd just prefer others at this stage.

Agreed he definitely needs to be more consistent - but there aren't too many mid-sized forwards around that don't have a tendency to fade in and out of games. Partly the nature of the position he plays I reckon. 1-2 goals, a dozen clean disposals and a few I50 tackles each week and he's doing his job.

Not worth the $. Then again, I thought Richmond overpaid for Prestia at the time.

Agree - think this is the most likely scenario. Might depend on whether Kemp is still available at 8 - you'd think Carlton would surely take him at 9.

You'd think Sydney would be fairly likely to bid on Green at 5 anyway

Not sure if this has been floated, but would we consider trading pick 3 for GWS's pick 6 and their 2020 first rounder? Might appeal to the Giants as they get a 'bonus' top 3 pick before a bid comes for Green. Might appeal to us if we don't see much difference between Young and pick 6. It's also not completely unreasonable to take the punt on GWS sliding next year - historically, not many teams bounce back from a grand final hammering (see Dees 2001; Port 2008; Adelaide 2017). Noting that GWS are obviously more talented than any of those teams. Recent comparisons: 2017: Dow (3) vs Stephenson (6) 2016: McLuggage (3) vs Petrevski-Seton (6) 2015: Mills (3) vs Francis (6) 2014: A Brayshaw (3) vs Marchbank (6) 2013: Billings (3) vs Scharenberg (6) 2012: Plowman (3) vs Macrae (6)

I rate him. One of the few forwards we have capable of regularly pulling off 'something out of nothing' goals - emblematic of what we lacked this year. Not in our best 10 players, but instantly makes our forward line look more dangerous. Definitely in our best 22 when fit IMO, hoping for a big year from him.

Not really a valid comparison - completely different players. My point is, there are a lot of calls for us to split a top ten pick - in part, to give us a shot at a small forward expected to be taken mid-draft (much like Spargo was).

Always worth looking at those deals from the other side: would you trade 7 & 10 for pick 3? Ambitious to say the least.

Observation: if an 18 YO Charlie Spargo was available in this draft, how many posters would be calling for us to split 8 so we could have a shot at drafting him? Much better off taking 3 and 8 to the draft IMO, unless a ridiculous deal presents itself. Nail them both, and fingers crossed we won't be discussing top 10 picks for a while (and hopefully not just because we traded next year's pick).

I find Stevens' highlights difficult to rate. Certainly breaks lines and has skills, but he won't get anywhere near as much time and space at AFL level, and he doesn't appear to be super clean in the contest. Good players his size have serious tricks - he strikes me as a flashier ANB type. Unless we draft him of course, in which case I'll believe he's Robbie Flower reincarnated. At this stage I'd prefer others.

Never understood the 'overrated' calls - you'd never find a hawks supporter who thinks so. One of my absolute favourite non-demons to watch, even though he tore us to shreds a few times. That said, I reckon the chances of an AFL return next year are about on par with Jurrah.

True RE Grundy - he obviously slid, but as you say, at this stage it doesn't look like there's an equivalent forward in this draft. FWIW, I'm on the Young and Kemp bandwagon. I'd just be concerned if 'wanting a small forward' was given any weight when considering whether to split our current picks, or bidding on Henry.

I guess that's my point - from all reports, there are safer bets available at pick 8. No doubt that kid would be great right now - but there's a real danger in following the latest trend IMO - football changes quickly, and most kids take a long time to develop - this goes without saying. History shows that plenty of clubs have been burned badly by prioritizing perceived needs over talent. At this point, the Jack Higgins type is just as likely to be the next Addam Maric. Not so much treating playing positions differently as draft picks. Take the surest thing at 3 and 8. If 2 kids are equally rated but only one fills a need, flip a coin - and then take the more highly rated one. By all means get creative and cover immediate needs from the state leagues later in the draft. I agree that AA selection is generally a poor criterion, and many good players (especially non-midfielders) miss out - but it's useful to highlight that there are potentially a few 18 YO future gun small forwards running around that are currently unknown by us youtube experts.

There has been lots of discussion about either taking a small forward with one of our early picks, or splitting picks to gain extra picks in the range where the best small forwards in the draft are expected to fall. It's widely accepted that drafting ruckmen in the first round is a risky strategy, especially when you consider that many of the best rucks of recent times (eg., Cox, Sandi, Gawn, Mumford, Jolly, Jamar, Jacobs) were taken as late or rookie draft picks. Small forwards fall in the same category in my view. The following crumbing forwards have been selected as All Australians in the last decade (a somewhat subjective metric of success, but nonetheless a who's who of gun small forwards): Charlie Cameron (R) , Michael Walters (53), Eddie Betts (PSD), Cyril Rioli (12), Chad Wingard (6), Hayden Ballantyne (21), Stephen Milne (R), Mark Lecras (37) and Leon Davis (34). Our best recent small forwards, Davey and Garlett, were also taken in the rookie draft. Of the above players, only Rioli and Wingard were taken in the first round, and both were widely regarded as high picks prior to the draft. History suggests that there will almost certainly be at least a couple of superstars lurking somewhere in the top ten of this draft. We don't need another inside mid, but the next Dangerfield would improve our team a hell of a lot more than a speculative forward with a lower chance of making the grade. Draft for talent - especially in the first couple of rounds - then rookie or trade for needs. Anything else reeks of desperation IMO. Thoughts?