Matsuo Basho

We have been active in enquiring about May is my understanding. I doubt we would have initiated face-to-face meetings with the player if it was merely May’s management who approached us. Its not ‘lukewarm’ interest, put it that way. We’re keen.

I liken this move for May to Hawthorn’s shrewd recruiting of Brian Lake at the end of the 2012 season. The Hawks lost the 2012 GF to Sydney and Clarkson quickly identified the main weak link in that side - Ryan Schoenmakers did not quite cut the mustard in a key back role. So he quickly targets his man in Lake with the promise of joining the Hawks on a sustained premiership run. Lake needs little convincing, goes on to play in a premiership three-peat including winning the Norm Smith in 2013 against Freo. May has a great opportunity here to be that player for us.

Clearly they don’t as we’ve initiated meetings with the player and have shown strong interest in him most of the season. As have Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn at the very minimum.

Langdon is an Eagles man and just doesn’t want his cross town rivals to have any success or steal any of the Eagles’ current limelight. And he’s a bit of a [censored] to boot. Wouldn’t put stock in anything he says.

You forgot to add the prelim final where we were torched by Kennedy and Darling. If you haven’t got the defensive artillery to halt guys like that it doesn’t matter if it’s only three or four key forwards in the league who worry you, the point is you’re NOT going to win the premiership. At some point in the finals, without a top line back six, you’re going to come a cropper.

That’s fair enough BRFE but if you factor in all the the duds as well it’s still very much a hit or miss situation between picks 10 - 15. Not saying these picks aren’t valuable - that’s why we’d be offering say a pick 10 up for May - just that they fall well short of the guaranteed star people often assume they will bring you. It’s probably more like a 50/50 chance, with the added stress of having to wait three or four years to find out whether they’re any good!

Players do remain at their clubs if suitable trades aren’t agreed upon. They are professional footballers. Case in point. A contracted Bryce Gibbs wanted to go Adelaide end of 2016 but Carlton would not accept the Crows initial offer. Gibbs then stays at Carlton for another season and pretty sure he either won their B&F or at least finished in the top three. Supporters get too emotional about player movements. For them it’s their livelihood and most adopt a professional attitude wherever they ply their trade. I doubt May would be any different.

Posted this in the May thread but also relevant here: For posters obsessed with draft picks here is a list of pick 10’s selected at the AFL draft since 2010. Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Troy Menzel, Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo, Harry McKay, Jack Bowes, Lochie O’Brien.  Wow what a veritable cavalcade of superstars. The first 4 names there I’m pretty sure have all already been delisted!

For posters obsessed with draft picks here is a list of pick 10’s selected at the AFL draft since 2010. Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Troy Menzel, Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo, Harry McKay, Jack Bowes, Lochie O’Brien. Wow what a veritable cavalcade of superstars!!

Me too. The pointy end of drafts (pick 1 - 7) you are usually guaranteed a top line player but after that it is not a sure thing, even in a hyped up so-called “superdraft”. You might get a quality 200 gamer at pick 10 or you might get a guy like Nathan Freeman who amounts to bugga all and you’ve waited five years for the courtesy. May is a known quantity and FFS can people please recognise that we are now entering a premiership window? Any club he goes to is going to get 80-120 games of quality lock down defending from a big bodied brute with good skills, pace and more than a touch of mongrel about him. It’s a no-brainer. Hand over pick 10 in a heartbeat.

He is their Captain. He has not yet formally requested a trade and there is still a possibility he may remain at the Suns. In fact if anything the Suns are in a stronger position with May than we are with Hogan. Like Hogan he is contracted for 2019 and if a suitor doesn’t come up with a decent pick for him they can hold him to contract and collect top level compensation for him from the AFL at the end of next season. The Suns are a monty for bottom four again so Band1 compo will guarantee them a top 5 pick for May. Sure they’re probably going to prefer to offload him now, but if Melbourne or Collingwood or Essendon lowball them with a sh.itty pick in trade watch them say thanks but no thanks, play hardball and keep him on their list. Anyone who thinks he’s going to come cheap are kidding themselves.

Of course May’s arrival and Hogan’s departure is not a net gain to us in isolation. That’s why we will be demanding two first round picks for him. But there’s a significant difference in value between draft picks 5-10 and picks 14-18. The Suns are not giving up their captain, a sought after fullback with at least three Vic clubs chasing his signature, for anything less than pick 10.

Frost’s Achilles Heel is his wonky, heart-in-mouth disposal by foot. It just kills momentum to turn the ball over like he is prone to do in the back half and cough up goals. Oscar may not have the foot speed of Frost but he is more accomplished and cool headed with the ball in hand. That fact pushes Frost out of the side for mine if/when May and Lever slot into the back six. Frost is a Casey depth player or trade bait if we recruit May.

Right. The Suns will hand over their contracted Captain, a sought after fullback being chased by at least three Victorian clubs, for pick 30. There’s “unlikely” then there’s “don’t drink and post”.

Two reasons: - Pick 14 to 18 will not be enough secure May. - The Suns don’t want more future draft picks. They want to improve their side now.

I’m with you Adonski. Opportunity is knocking on the door with May now when we have the post-Hogan trade currency to nab him from under the noses of Collingwood and others. Who’s to say what the landscape will be in 12 months when he becomes an RFA? Maybe a host of other clubs get involved and one trumps our offer. Maybe our hands are tied because of another impending trade. Circumstances change. You strike while the iron’s hot in this situation.

I would hate to play the Eagles in the GF next year and see our hopes slip away as Kennedy gets a hold of Oscar. We need Steven May.

Hopefully those who doubt we need a Steven May will have seen Kennedy’s influence in the GF and understand why we need a true gorilla-minder in our back six.

A closer statistical look at Jesse Hogan’s 2018 is revealing. 20 games, 47 goals @ 2.4 goals per game. Okay, pretty good but let’s break that down into performances against the top 10 clubs on the ladder versus his returns against the bottom 8 clubs. Hogan v Top 10 Clubs: 8 games, 9 goals @ 1.1 per game Hogan v Bottom 8 Clubs: 12 games, 38 goals @ 3.2 per game Conclusion: Pretty self explanatory. A talented young key forward who currently beats up on lesser defenders but goes consistently missing in the bigger games against quality opposition. “Generational player” ... No. Potential to develop into top five in comp quality AFL key forward ... Yes. Pick 9 & 10 ... About right. But we should hold out for 5 & 10 and see if Freo blink.

Love it! Great for footy. Bucks just destined never to win one as player or coach.

I want picks 6 & 10 but would not be surprised if we accept 9 & 10 at the end of the day. Most non-MFC supporters and the AFL industry intelligentsia will reckon that’s about right or even a bit over the odds. Then ... 10 & Frost to Suns for May & Kolodjashnij 9 & 2019 first rounder for Shiel & 2019 second rounder In: May, Shiel, Kolodjashnij, future GWS 2nd rounder Out: Hogan, Frost, future MFC first rounder * Before anyone bleats about the 2019 first round for second round pick swap element, Melbourne’s first round pick next year is likely to be in the 15-18 range. Pick 9 & 18 for Shiel is about his currency. He is a jet. This or something like this seems around the mark on what type of outcome we will see here. Fans need to shelve the pie-in-the-sky stuff and be realistic. It’d still be a good result for the club. We are not going to take 18yo kids in the first round at this draft given our age profile and entry into a premiership window. We are going to add quality players in the 23 - 27yo age bracket. Just watch.

All over. West Coast midfield no match for Collingwood. Too vanilla. Pies got the gamebreakers you need at the G. Joffa will be unzipping the gold jacket bag right about now.

Why? He’s in the best 5 key backmen in the league and the Sun’s captain. St.Kilda paid out pick 5 for Jake Carlisle for Chrissakes. You’d pay pick 10 for May and not look back. How many pick 10’s have amounted to nothing? Probably 50% of them.

Enjoy while it lasts Filth and Eagles fans. The Demon 3-peat starts in 2019.

I understand your perspective but I honestly feel it’s an overreaction. Not only because I rate Hogan a slightly inferior player to the way you view him, but also because this isn’t the NFL or the NBA where a single franchise player can come in and mean the difference between winning a premiership or not. Did the Blues win one with Judd? How are Sydney going with Buddy. Close but no cigar. No, AFL footy is more nuanced and team orientated than that. Key forwards are great but they don’t hold all the aces the way the perhaps once did. Freo will add a fantastic player to their list but the Demons have an opportunity here to make a great fist of this situation and fix up several areas of the 22 which may have otherwise hindered us from winning a premiership/s. Key defence and outside midfield class. If we can bolster these areas and look to Weideman, Petracca and others to step up in class and support TMac in the forward 50, it is very arguable we’ll have a stronger TEAM overall than we would have had Hogan remained. Very arguable. We beat some top teams without Hogan in 2017 and 2018, including some big victories interstate. He’s a very good player but his loss is not the catastrophe you’re making it out to be ... IF (and that’s a big “if”) we play our cards right here and make those p.ricks out West pay through the nose for him. That’s my take anyway.