Matsuo Basho

You really going to double down on that silly comment? Glad you’re not representing us at the trade table binger! Freo: “Sorry boys the best we can do is pick 5 and Ed Langdon or maybe swing a second rounder your way next year. Best offer. Cheers.” Bing: “Gee shucks lads we were hoping for a couple of high first rounders now but we can see you’re in a bit of a bind and Jesse is a bit homesick .... look alright we’ll take that. But look after us next time golly gee!” Again, there is a time to cut a quick deal and there’s a time to recognise you have the whip hand in negotiations and make your opponent (yes that’s what Freo are - an opponent) rightly pay up. I’ll also say Jesse Hogan has uttered not one public word about being homesick, being depressed or wanting to go home. Not a word. Carlton played hardball with Gibbs when they felt they were being lowballed by Adelaide in 2016. Gibbs stayed on another year and finished top three in the Blues B&F. Don’t get sucked into an emotional pull at the heartstrings. Jesse Hogan is a professional footballer and he will accept a business decision the MFC makes concerning his and the club’s future. We owe Freo nothing. And the player in question is contracted. So I repeat, they can pay the freight or go away and roll with their rubbish forward line again in 2019.

Collingwood paid out two pick 7’s for Treloar. 5 & 9 seems entirely appropriate for Hogan given the circumstances.

The MFC’s first duty is to look after its own interests first, then consider the rights and needs of an individual player. Jesse has managed to play six seasons in Melbourne and only recently declared he was happy here. He gets along well with his teammates. If Fremantle won’t satisfy us in trade then I see no problem holding the player to the final year of his contract with a promise to field offers from both Fremantle AND West Coast next season. Freo came to us to poach our gun key forward while still on contract. That fact can not be stressed enough. They’ll need to come to OUR PARTY picks wise, not the other way around. Why should we? Because we’re Melbourne and we play nice at the card table? Sorry but the MFC’s interests trump those of an individual player on this one. I would be shocked if our FD did not see it that way.

Gut feel says Freo are going to try and throw 9 & 10 at us for Hogan while keeping pick 5 for themselves at the pointy end of this draft. Our position should be “nah sorry we will be having picks 5 & 9 if you want your gun key forward. Take it or leave it. Happy to keep him for another year and then deal with West Coast at the end of 2018 for Jesse’s services.” It may only be a five pick difference we’ll hold out for, but in this draft that could well be the difference between adding a good player and a genuine star to our list. Picks 5 & 9. You initiated this Freo. You have close to the worst forward line in the league and a coach and board under pressure. You want Hogan that desperately there’s a price to pay. Or no dice!

Brian Lake joined Hawthorn at the age of 30 to go on and play three seasons of top line footy at fullback for them, including three premierships. May’s age of 27yo should not concern us in the slightest. He’s in his prime and should be good for 4 - 6 years if managed well. If anything he’s a fitter specimen than Lake was!

North are said to be offering $1.2m/year for minimum 5 years for Gaff. Even in today’s climate that is serious huge coin. If we matched it it would make him the highest paid player at the club by some margin. He’s a very good player but that is stupid money in my opinion. A figure that could really destabilise the payment balance to the rest of the list. Let North empty their wallet on him and let’s look at a guy like Dylan Shiel who would come about $300k/season cheaper, leaving us other options in the market. Like others Gaff’s mental state also worries me. Those types of incidences - humiliating suspension for king hitting, missing out on a premiership medal after nine years of service - can do funny things to a man’s mind. Not worth the risk at that price.

We have been active in enquiring about May is my understanding. I doubt we would have initiated face-to-face meetings with the player if it was merely May’s management who approached us. Its not ‘lukewarm’ interest, put it that way. We’re keen.

I liken this move for May to Hawthorn’s shrewd recruiting of Brian Lake at the end of the 2012 season. The Hawks lost the 2012 GF to Sydney and Clarkson quickly identified the main weak link in that side - Ryan Schoenmakers did not quite cut the mustard in a key back role. So he quickly targets his man in Lake with the promise of joining the Hawks on a sustained premiership run. Lake needs little convincing, goes on to play in a premiership three-peat including winning the Norm Smith in 2013 against Freo. May has a great opportunity here to be that player for us.

Clearly they don’t as we’ve initiated meetings with the player and have shown strong interest in him most of the season. As have Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn at the very minimum.

Langdon is an Eagles man and just doesn’t want his cross town rivals to have any success or steal any of the Eagles’ current limelight. And he’s a bit of a [censored] to boot. Wouldn’t put stock in anything he says.

You forgot to add the prelim final where we were torched by Kennedy and Darling. If you haven’t got the defensive artillery to halt guys like that it doesn’t matter if it’s only three or four key forwards in the league who worry you, the point is you’re NOT going to win the premiership. At some point in the finals, without a top line back six, you’re going to come a cropper.

That’s fair enough BRFE but if you factor in all the the duds as well it’s still very much a hit or miss situation between picks 10 - 15. Not saying these picks aren’t valuable - that’s why we’d be offering say a pick 10 up for May - just that they fall well short of the guaranteed star people often assume they will bring you. It’s probably more like a 50/50 chance, with the added stress of having to wait three or four years to find out whether they’re any good!

Players do remain at their clubs if suitable trades aren’t agreed upon. They are professional footballers. Case in point. A contracted Bryce Gibbs wanted to go Adelaide end of 2016 but Carlton would not accept the Crows initial offer. Gibbs then stays at Carlton for another season and pretty sure he either won their B&F or at least finished in the top three. Supporters get too emotional about player movements. For them it’s their livelihood and most adopt a professional attitude wherever they ply their trade. I doubt May would be any different.

Posted this in the May thread but also relevant here: For posters obsessed with draft picks here is a list of pick 10’s selected at the AFL draft since 2010. Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Troy Menzel, Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo, Harry McKay, Jack Bowes, Lochie O’Brien.  Wow what a veritable cavalcade of superstars. The first 4 names there I’m pretty sure have all already been delisted!

For posters obsessed with draft picks here is a list of pick 10’s selected at the AFL draft since 2010. Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Troy Menzel, Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo, Harry McKay, Jack Bowes, Lochie O’Brien. Wow what a veritable cavalcade of superstars!!

Me too. The pointy end of drafts (pick 1 - 7) you are usually guaranteed a top line player but after that it is not a sure thing, even in a hyped up so-called “superdraft”. You might get a quality 200 gamer at pick 10 or you might get a guy like Nathan Freeman who amounts to bugga all and you’ve waited five years for the courtesy. May is a known quantity and FFS can people please recognise that we are now entering a premiership window? Any club he goes to is going to get 80-120 games of quality lock down defending from a big bodied brute with good skills, pace and more than a touch of mongrel about him. It’s a no-brainer. Hand over pick 10 in a heartbeat.

He is their Captain. He has not yet formally requested a trade and there is still a possibility he may remain at the Suns. In fact if anything the Suns are in a stronger position with May than we are with Hogan. Like Hogan he is contracted for 2019 and if a suitor doesn’t come up with a decent pick for him they can hold him to contract and collect top level compensation for him from the AFL at the end of next season. The Suns are a monty for bottom four again so Band1 compo will guarantee them a top 5 pick for May. Sure they’re probably going to prefer to offload him now, but if Melbourne or Collingwood or Essendon lowball them with a sh.itty pick in trade watch them say thanks but no thanks, play hardball and keep him on their list. Anyone who thinks he’s going to come cheap are kidding themselves.

Of course May’s arrival and Hogan’s departure is not a net gain to us in isolation. That’s why we will be demanding two first round picks for him. But there’s a significant difference in value between draft picks 5-10 and picks 14-18. The Suns are not giving up their captain, a sought after fullback with at least three Vic clubs chasing his signature, for anything less than pick 10.

Frost’s Achilles Heel is his wonky, heart-in-mouth disposal by foot. It just kills momentum to turn the ball over like he is prone to do in the back half and cough up goals. Oscar may not have the foot speed of Frost but he is more accomplished and cool headed with the ball in hand. That fact pushes Frost out of the side for mine if/when May and Lever slot into the back six. Frost is a Casey depth player or trade bait if we recruit May.

Right. The Suns will hand over their contracted Captain, a sought after fullback being chased by at least three Victorian clubs, for pick 30. There’s “unlikely” then there’s “don’t drink and post”.

Two reasons: - Pick 14 to 18 will not be enough secure May. - The Suns don’t want more future draft picks. They want to improve their side now.

I’m with you Adonski. Opportunity is knocking on the door with May now when we have the post-Hogan trade currency to nab him from under the noses of Collingwood and others. Who’s to say what the landscape will be in 12 months when he becomes an RFA? Maybe a host of other clubs get involved and one trumps our offer. Maybe our hands are tied because of another impending trade. Circumstances change. You strike while the iron’s hot in this situation.

I would hate to play the Eagles in the GF next year and see our hopes slip away as Kennedy gets a hold of Oscar. We need Steven May.

Hopefully those who doubt we need a Steven May will have seen Kennedy’s influence in the GF and understand why we need a true gorilla-minder in our back six.

A closer statistical look at Jesse Hogan’s 2018 is revealing. 20 games, 47 goals @ 2.4 goals per game. Okay, pretty good but let’s break that down into performances against the top 10 clubs on the ladder versus his returns against the bottom 8 clubs. Hogan v Top 10 Clubs: 8 games, 9 goals @ 1.1 per game Hogan v Bottom 8 Clubs: 12 games, 38 goals @ 3.2 per game Conclusion: Pretty self explanatory. A talented young key forward who currently beats up on lesser defenders but goes consistently missing in the bigger games against quality opposition. “Generational player” ... No. Potential to develop into top five in comp quality AFL key forward ... Yes. Pick 9 & 10 ... About right. But we should hold out for 5 & 10 and see if Freo blink.