Matsuo Basho

For posters obsessed with draft picks here is a list of pick 10’s selected at the AFL draft since 2010. Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Troy Menzel, Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo, Harry McKay, Jack Bowes, Lochie O’Brien. Wow what a veritable cavalcade of superstars!!

Me too. The pointy end of drafts (pick 1 - 7) you are usually guaranteed a top line player but after that it is not a sure thing, even in a hyped up so-called “superdraft”. You might get a quality 200 gamer at pick 10 or you might get a guy like Nathan Freeman who amounts to bugga all and you’ve waited five years for the courtesy. May is a known quantity and FFS can people please recognise that we are now entering a premiership window? Any club he goes to is going to get 80-120 games of quality lock down defending from a big bodied brute with good skills, pace and more than a touch of mongrel about him. It’s a no-brainer. Hand over pick 10 in a heartbeat.

He is their Captain. He has not yet formally requested a trade and there is still a possibility he may remain at the Suns. In fact if anything the Suns are in a stronger position with May than we are with Hogan. Like Hogan he is contracted for 2019 and if a suitor doesn’t come up with a decent pick for him they can hold him to contract and collect top level compensation for him from the AFL at the end of next season. The Suns are a monty for bottom four again so Band1 compo will guarantee them a top 5 pick for May. Sure they’re probably going to prefer to offload him now, but if Melbourne or Collingwood or Essendon lowball them with a sh.itty pick in trade watch them say thanks but no thanks, play hardball and keep him on their list. Anyone who thinks he’s going to come cheap are kidding themselves.

Of course May’s arrival and Hogan’s departure is not a net gain to us in isolation. That’s why we will be demanding two first round picks for him. But there’s a significant difference in value between draft picks 5-10 and picks 14-18. The Suns are not giving up their captain, a sought after fullback with at least three Vic clubs chasing his signature, for anything less than pick 10.

Frost’s Achilles Heel is his wonky, heart-in-mouth disposal by foot. It just kills momentum to turn the ball over like he is prone to do in the back half and cough up goals. Oscar may not have the foot speed of Frost but he is more accomplished and cool headed with the ball in hand. That fact pushes Frost out of the side for mine if/when May and Lever slot into the back six. Frost is a Casey depth player or trade bait if we recruit May.

Right. The Suns will hand over their contracted Captain, a sought after fullback being chased by at least three Victorian clubs, for pick 30. There’s “unlikely” then there’s “don’t drink and post”.

Two reasons: - Pick 14 to 18 will not be enough secure May. - The Suns don’t want more future draft picks. They want to improve their side now.

I’m with you Adonski. Opportunity is knocking on the door with May now when we have the post-Hogan trade currency to nab him from under the noses of Collingwood and others. Who’s to say what the landscape will be in 12 months when he becomes an RFA? Maybe a host of other clubs get involved and one trumps our offer. Maybe our hands are tied because of another impending trade. Circumstances change. You strike while the iron’s hot in this situation.

I would hate to play the Eagles in the GF next year and see our hopes slip away as Kennedy gets a hold of Oscar. We need Steven May.

A closer statistical look at Jesse Hogan’s 2018 is revealing. 20 games, 47 goals @ 2.4 goals per game. Okay, pretty good but let’s break that down into performances against the top 10 clubs on the ladder versus his returns against the bottom 8 clubs. Hogan v Top 10 Clubs: 8 games, 9 goals @ 1.1 per game Hogan v Bottom 8 Clubs: 12 games, 38 goals @ 3.2 per game Conclusion: Pretty self explanatory. A talented young key forward who currently beats up on lesser defenders but goes consistently missing in the bigger games against quality opposition. “Generational player” ... No. Potential to develop into top five in comp quality AFL key forward ... Yes. Pick 9 & 10 ... About right. But we should hold out for 5 & 10 and see if Freo blink.

I want picks 6 & 10 but would not be surprised if we accept 9 & 10 at the end of the day. Most non-MFC supporters and the AFL industry intelligentsia will reckon that’s about right or even a bit over the odds. Then ... 10 & Frost to Suns for May & Kolodjashnij 9 & 2019 first rounder for Shiel & 2019 second rounder In: May, Shiel, Kolodjashnij, future GWS 2nd rounder Out: Hogan, Frost, future MFC first rounder * Before anyone bleats about the 2019 first round for second round pick swap element, Melbourne’s first round pick next year is likely to be in the 15-18 range. Pick 9 & 18 for Shiel is about his currency. He is a jet. This or something like this seems around the mark on what type of outcome we will see here. Fans need to shelve the pie-in-the-sky stuff and be realistic. It’d still be a good result for the club. We are not going to take 18yo kids in the first round at this draft given our age profile and entry into a premiership window. We are going to add quality players in the 23 - 27yo age bracket. Just watch.

Why? He’s in the best 5 key backmen in the league and the Sun’s captain. St.Kilda paid out pick 5 for Jake Carlisle for Chrissakes. You’d pay pick 10 for May and not look back. How many pick 10’s have amounted to nothing? Probably 50% of them.

I understand your perspective but I honestly feel it’s an overreaction. Not only because I rate Hogan a slightly inferior player to the way you view him, but also because this isn’t the NFL or the NBA where a single franchise player can come in and mean the difference between winning a premiership or not. Did the Blues win one with Judd? How are Sydney going with Buddy. Close but no cigar. No, AFL footy is more nuanced and team orientated than that. Key forwards are great but they don’t hold all the aces the way the perhaps once did. Freo will add a fantastic player to their list but the Demons have an opportunity here to make a great fist of this situation and fix up several areas of the 22 which may have otherwise hindered us from winning a premiership/s. Key defence and outside midfield class. If we can bolster these areas and look to Weideman, Petracca and others to step up in class and support TMac in the forward 50, it is very arguable we’ll have a stronger TEAM overall than we would have had Hogan remained. Very arguable. We beat some top teams without Hogan in 2017 and 2018, including some big victories interstate. He’s a very good player but his loss is not the catastrophe you’re making it out to be ... IF (and that’s a big “if”) we play our cards right here and make those p.ricks out West pay through the nose for him. That’s my take anyway.

$$$$$$$$$$ “KACHING” !! Might not be the only reason but I’d suggest it’d be the main one. At the end of the day you’re a professional footballer at the elite level for ten years, with the ever present possibility of going down with a buckled knee every time you run out onto the park. Make hay while the sun shines. Who can blame him? Few would say they’d knock it back and keep a straight face. Plus his Mum is there. His only remaining parent. The lad is only 23 and been away from his Mum since he was a teenager. Let’s cut the lad some slack. Good luck to him. We move on.

We shall see. They’ve also balls’d up a fair few. We have every reason to lean hard on Freo here. That’s not being faux tough it’s just the way the cards are stacked. In our favour.

I’m nervous that Mahoney and Co are not going to drive a hard bargain. If we lose Hogan for May and chump change that will be a seriously disappointing outcome. It must be May and either a very good pick or a very good starting 22 player. I want May but no way is he of equal value to Hogan, not to mention the fact that we have the whip hand over Fremantle in this exchange. They need the player more than we need to give him. Like many Demon supporters I will be watching on with keen critical interest as to how shrewdly we negotiate this. We traditionally have not been renowned for coming out on the winning side of trade table deals. A few yes but more often than not we’ve been the ones picking up the dropped soap in the prison shower. I hope those days are over.

I get that and it’s probably a long shot. However there were stories coming out of Perth during the year that he was/is unhappy playing under Ross Lyon. Lyon himself even came out publically to try and quash the rumours. It never hurts to discretely ask the question. Never say never. Things change.

Care to elaborate? Triple premiership wingman and Doig Medallist (2017). Still only 25yo. Hogan not averse to staying out ‘til the wee hours himself on occasion. Does that make him “damaged goods”?

If the deal on the table for Hogan was pick 5 & Brad Hill ... would you take it? Send pick 5 and Frost to the Suns for May and Kolodjashnij. 2019 R1 Side: Jetta May OMac Salem Lever Hibberd Hill Oliver Kolodjashnij Petracca Weideman Jones Spargo TMac Melksham Gawn Brayshaw Viney Harmes Lewis ANB Hannan To me this is would be a significant improvement on the 2018 version of Melbourne. Shore up the defence with May while adding some class run, carry and delivery on the outside of midfield. We’ve got the grunt covered. Now’s the time to add a bit of polish. Be very happy if we emerged from trade week with an outcome like this. Pretty much all depends on what Hogan does of course.

If a Fremantle player comes into the equation (other than Cerra or Andy Brayshaw) I wouldn’t be interested in Ed Langin, I’d be asking after Brad Hill. He’d be very handy on a wing for the Dees, won their B&F in 2017, triple premiership player and still only 25yo. There were rumours during the year too that Hill isn’t entirely happy playing ‘Ross Lyon footy’. https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2018-ross-lyon-shuts-down-rumours-about-brad-hill-departing-fremantle/news-story/15a6cf9f731b0fec4d26c1e59415f18d

https://youtu.be/LGS4RG-mnIM

My understanding is we left the Gaff poker table some weeks ago. Buy in price way too high. He won’t be at the Dees next year.

I say yes. What’s a quality fullback worth to a side that hasn’t won daytime silverware since 1964? $800k sounds about right to me.

That’s not what you said. You said Collingwood has no relevance if May nominates Melbourne. I then explained why you’re wrong. The Suns will have a say in where May goes. Just to reiterate.

Not correct in this case. May is under contract until end of 2019. If the Suns don’t like what Melbourne (or Collingwood) offer in trade they have the option of holding the player for another year then getting in all likelihood Band1 FA compo for him at the end of 2019. They will be telling May “look after us or we will hold you to your contract.” No way they are letting him go for anything less than a first round pick.