Matsuo Basho

This footage of Jesse at Freo’s training facility basically cements them into handing over the two top ten picks. Very bad PR for them to be tapping up a contracted player, getting their fans all excited then trying to stiff the selling club and walking away from the table with egg on their face. Freo have no choice now. They’re all in on Jesse Hogan and will be paying us his due price.

That has been crossing my mind, too. Especially with Jones in his twilight, uniting the Brayshaw brothers as midfield linchpins for the next 8-10 years might have great appeal. If that doesn’t happen I’ve switched my thinking now away from the 5 & 9 scenario (Old55 is right - Port not guaranteed of landing Lukosius of Rankine in that scenario by trading up for pick 4) ... to pick 5 and Freo’s 2019 first rounder. That seems a very fair and reasonable trade to me. Without Hogan Freo’s first round pick would surely be a top 6 pick with their list, but with Hogan in their forward line the onus is on them to back themselves in and finish higher on the ladder, say just outside the eight. That would translate to roughly pick 9 or 10 in next year’s draft. Leave Port out of it. Demand picks 4 & 5 now and then soften to picks 4 and their first round pick in 2019. That’s the deal we should be looking at if an enquiry into Andy Brayshaw falls flat. You should always plan with an eye towards the future and the possibility of having two solid first round picks in the 2019 draft, say picks 7 and 16 opens up some nice options for us next year. Either to draft in more young talent or trade some quality in for specific needs. That sort of draft caché could put us in the frame for a Josh Kelly as well.

Sorry, Dad. Can I borrow the car?

Please. 9 goals from 8 games is poor no matter how you want to dress it up or justify it. Hogan is not 19, he’s s 23yo big bodied forward at peak physical fitness. He failed in big games this season. If supporters want to rightly give him his due and pump him up, then we also need to accept that dose of cold water. There are some flaws in his game. He is not Wayne Carey or Buddy Franklin and frankly never will be that good. Will he be as good as Josh Kennedy? Who knows. Might, might not. But that wasn’t the crux of the “West Coast got a showbag if goodies for Judd. So should we for Hogan” ... was it. Be optimistic but realistic on Hogan. That’s all I’m saying.

I’ve heard that Hogan becomes a restricted free agent nextt season? This could greatly affect things should he stay at Melbourne.

Interesting left-field scenario OlderDemon. I reckon there is still a 25% chance he stays. Not cut and dried at all yet that Dees and The Purple Haze will reach an agreement satisfactory to both parties. I still think it’ll happen but the alternative course you chart has some merit. A year extension until 2020 gives Hogan two cracks at playing in a premiership with the club he started with and who he has been through the hard times with. Then off home for the monster contract. Might have appeal to him ... and us. Job security the major sticking point in that scenario. Go down with a buckled knee, huge disaster for him.

Not saying Hogan didn’t have a good year and isn’t a good player but it needs mentioning again that he consistently did not play well in games against quality opposition in 2018. 9 goals in his 8 games against the top 10 clubs on the ladder. It’s not “fall over yourself spectacular” is it? Hogan is a good footballer and a great prospect but he should not be mentioned in the same breath as the Chris Judd trade to Carlton, as Olisik did. That is my point. If we can land picks 5 & 10 for him you take it, pat yourself on the back and move on with life. That’s the best we’re going to do here. Freo will knock back an ask of Picks 4 & 5 and go to the draft if we refuse to budge. You can drive a hard bargain but be realistic. They could take BOTH of the King Bros or a King brother and an elite midfielder with those picks. Something is going to have to come back their way at the table.

Agree. Don’t mind Colyer at all.

No, it’s Reality. Yoh might want to become acquainted with it one day.

Are you sure it’s not our supporters overrating Hogan? Did not finish top ten in B&F. Played 20 games.

No, need to correct you there. Judd had ALL of those decorations on his CV before the trade to Carlton. Give up on this one mate.

Chris Judd was a three time All-Australian, Brownlow and Norm Smith medal winning, Premiership captaining superstar. In. His. Prime. Not even in the same conversation as Hogan. Now you’re just being silly Olisik.

Treloar is a player of commensurate talent and influence at AFL level to Hogan. 7 & 7 is pretty much on a par with 5 & 10. Of course Mahoney said that. It’s his job to set the bar high in advance of negotiations. Spot on. 4 & 5 is too high for Hogan. Freo will strongly consider taking those picks to the super draft if we refuse to budge on that opening gambit.

We’re not getting picks 4 & 5 for Hogan. That may be our starting position but we will give a bit back to Freo in negotiations. 5 & 10 is much more fair and realistic, with Freo retaining pick 9 in the draft. Also, no club is trading speculative third round picks and a fringe 22 player for pick 13. Take the red & blue goggles off.

Right on brother. The real trade victory will come if we can somehow convince GCS to let May go for pick 10 and hold on to pick 5. We might have to sweeten that deal for them by including a couple of mature players like Frost and Tyson. The aim of the game for us should be to get May in the door for pick 10 and manage to hold on to pick 5 in the so-called superdraft.

Relax folks. Here’s how it will go down. 1. Dees will ask for picks 4 & 5. Straight up. 2. Freo will pizz and moan, say the deal is off and then eventually offer us the 9 & 10 that they receive from Port for pick 4. This process may take some time. We just need to sit tight. 3. We will ask for picks 5 & 9 and give Freo a deadline of say 24 hours before trade week closes or Hogan remains in red and blue. 4. Freo will pizz and moan and journos like Slobbo and McClure will continue to proclaim how unrealistic we are, only for the Dockers to relent and shell out picks 5 & 10 just as Mahoney gets out his mobile to call Hoges’ manager to tell him “deal’s off”. Don’t be fooled what any hack journo is reporting - the driving force in this negotiation is the Dockers’ desperation to get this player they’ve been chasing for half a decade, on its books. Dees just need to be firm, patient and ready to get up from the table if need be. They will cave at 5 & 10. Mark it down.

Hibberd, too. Scary unit bearing down on you at full tilt.

Mahoney said on trade radio today that KK has already undergone a full medical at the Dees. Sounds like this signing is a definite goer. Great get by our FD.

Most media pundits don’t want Melbourne to receive two high first rounders for Hogan. They still see is as a minnow club who should do as we’re told and accept what we’re given in the manner of the third born in a poor family. Mark Robinson was on FoxFooty the other night adamant the Dees should not receive two first round picks for Hogan. I wonder why? Could it be that an even stronger Melbourne outfit makes it that much harder for his beloved Bombers to lift another Cup? Vested interests left right and centre in all this reporting on potential trades. All we need to be concerned about is laying it out very clearly to Freo what we expect in trade and then stick to it. Any media noise that suggests we are being unreasonable or that we are overvaluing Hogan is exactly that ... noise.

Close isn’t it. I lean towards Shiel because of the burst acceleration factor out of congestion. Perfect compliment to Clarry, Gus and Vines. Race is hotting up for both though. Saints have now upped their ante for Shiel to $8m over 6 years. Reckon he’s the type of guy though to settle for a bit less coin to play for a Vic club with genuine flag aspirations. Reckon it’s out of Hawks, Bombers and hopefully ... us!

It’s about finding that better overall team balance. If Weid can kick 30 (very achievable) and Petracca can increase his goal output (also very achievable) the loss of Hogan can be ameliorated or close to. At the same time the trade should allow us to strengthen our back six (May) and add some class elsewhere on the park, preferably outside midfield. On the balance of it, this trade can and should strengthen our best 22, particularly it should make us harder to score against.

The Channel 7 news update about Melbourne digging their heels in was based on a 10 second soundbite Nathan Jones gave Mark Stevens at the B&F last night. Jones said “Hoges is a contracted player who we rate highly and expect to be at the club next season.” Jones also added “plenty of water to go under the bridge before anything plays out there” or words to that effect. So I take from that nothing really except that perhaps Jones has been told by club power brokers to trot out a defensive line and pushback on the narrative that the club is simply happy to walk our key forward to Freo on quick, friendly terms. Ie. The club is prepared to talk tough on Hogan, readying itself for a stoush at the trade table. Posters like Bing181 who can’t grasp this concept take note.

Nothing’s a sure thing but it’s highly likely. The AFL have pumped tens of millions of dollars into that joint and it is teetering on the edge of being a failure. If they have to make a choice to give them Band1 or Band2 compo for May which way do you think they’ll lean? Despite being 28 heading into 2019 a number of clubs would still offer him 3+ years and good coin if he hangs around GC for another season. 28 is not old by the way for a fullback in his prime.

Damned autocorrect!