Matsuo Basho

A closer statistical look at Jesse Hogan’s 2018 is revealing. 20 games, 47 goals @ 2.4 goals per game. Okay, pretty good but let’s break that down into performances against the top 10 clubs on the ladder versus his returns against the bottom 8 clubs. Hogan v Top 10 Clubs: 8 games, 9 goals @ 1.1 per game Hogan v Bottom 8 Clubs: 12 games, 38 goals @ 3.2 per game Conclusion: Pretty self explanatory. A talented young key forward who currently beats up on lesser defenders but goes consistently missing in the bigger games against quality opposition. “Generational player” ... No. Potential to develop into top five in comp quality AFL key forward ... Yes. Pick 9 & 10 ... About right. But we should hold out for 5 & 10 and see if Freo blink.

I want picks 6 & 10 but would not be surprised if we accept 9 & 10 at the end of the day. Most non-MFC supporters and the AFL industry intelligentsia will reckon that’s about right or even a bit over the odds. Then ... 10 & Frost to Suns for May & Kolodjashnij 9 & 2019 first rounder for Shiel & 2019 second rounder In: May, Shiel, Kolodjashnij, future GWS 2nd rounder Out: Hogan, Frost, future MFC first rounder * Before anyone bleats about the 2019 first round for second round pick swap element, Melbourne’s first round pick next year is likely to be in the 15-18 range. Pick 9 & 18 for Shiel is about his currency. He is a jet. This or something like this seems around the mark on what type of outcome we will see here. Fans need to shelve the pie-in-the-sky stuff and be realistic. It’d still be a good result for the club. We are not going to take 18yo kids in the first round at this draft given our age profile and entry into a premiership window. We are going to add quality players in the 23 - 27yo age bracket. Just watch.

Why? He’s in the best 5 key backmen in the league and the Sun’s captain. St.Kilda paid out pick 5 for Jake Carlisle for Chrissakes. You’d pay pick 10 for May and not look back. How many pick 10’s have amounted to nothing? Probably 50% of them.

I understand your perspective but I honestly feel it’s an overreaction. Not only because I rate Hogan a slightly inferior player to the way you view him, but also because this isn’t the NFL or the NBA where a single franchise player can come in and mean the difference between winning a premiership or not. Did the Blues win one with Judd? How are Sydney going with Buddy. Close but no cigar. No, AFL footy is more nuanced and team orientated than that. Key forwards are great but they don’t hold all the aces the way the perhaps once did. Freo will add a fantastic player to their list but the Demons have an opportunity here to make a great fist of this situation and fix up several areas of the 22 which may have otherwise hindered us from winning a premiership/s. Key defence and outside midfield class. If we can bolster these areas and look to Weideman, Petracca and others to step up in class and support TMac in the forward 50, it is very arguable we’ll have a stronger TEAM overall than we would have had Hogan remained. Very arguable. We beat some top teams without Hogan in 2017 and 2018, including some big victories interstate. He’s a very good player but his loss is not the catastrophe you’re making it out to be ... IF (and that’s a big “if”) we play our cards right here and make those p.ricks out West pay through the nose for him. That’s my take anyway.

$$$$$$$$$$ “KACHING” !! Might not be the only reason but I’d suggest it’d be the main one. At the end of the day you’re a professional footballer at the elite level for ten years, with the ever present possibility of going down with a buckled knee every time you run out onto the park. Make hay while the sun shines. Who can blame him? Few would say they’d knock it back and keep a straight face. Plus his Mum is there. His only remaining parent. The lad is only 23 and been away from his Mum since he was a teenager. Let’s cut the lad some slack. Good luck to him. We move on.

We shall see. They’ve also balls’d up a fair few. We have every reason to lean hard on Freo here. That’s not being faux tough it’s just the way the cards are stacked. In our favour.

I’m nervous that Mahoney and Co are not going to drive a hard bargain. If we lose Hogan for May and chump change that will be a seriously disappointing outcome. It must be May and either a very good pick or a very good starting 22 player. I want May but no way is he of equal value to Hogan, not to mention the fact that we have the whip hand over Fremantle in this exchange. They need the player more than we need to give him. Like many Demon supporters I will be watching on with keen critical interest as to how shrewdly we negotiate this. We traditionally have not been renowned for coming out on the winning side of trade table deals. A few yes but more often than not we’ve been the ones picking up the dropped soap in the prison shower. I hope those days are over.

I get that and it’s probably a long shot. However there were stories coming out of Perth during the year that he was/is unhappy playing under Ross Lyon. Lyon himself even came out publically to try and quash the rumours. It never hurts to discretely ask the question. Never say never. Things change.

Care to elaborate? Triple premiership wingman and Doig Medallist (2017). Still only 25yo. Hogan not averse to staying out ‘til the wee hours himself on occasion. Does that make him “damaged goods”?

If the deal on the table for Hogan was pick 5 & Brad Hill ... would you take it? Send pick 5 and Frost to the Suns for May and Kolodjashnij. 2019 R1 Side: Jetta May OMac Salem Lever Hibberd Hill Oliver Kolodjashnij Petracca Weideman Jones Spargo TMac Melksham Gawn Brayshaw Viney Harmes Lewis ANB Hannan To me this is would be a significant improvement on the 2018 version of Melbourne. Shore up the defence with May while adding some class run, carry and delivery on the outside of midfield. We’ve got the grunt covered. Now’s the time to add a bit of polish. Be very happy if we emerged from trade week with an outcome like this. Pretty much all depends on what Hogan does of course.

If a Fremantle player comes into the equation (other than Cerra or Andy Brayshaw) I wouldn’t be interested in Ed Langin, I’d be asking after Brad Hill. He’d be very handy on a wing for the Dees, won their B&F in 2017, triple premiership player and still only 25yo. There were rumours during the year too that Hill isn’t entirely happy playing ‘Ross Lyon footy’. https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2018-ross-lyon-shuts-down-rumours-about-brad-hill-departing-fremantle/news-story/15a6cf9f731b0fec4d26c1e59415f18d

https://youtu.be/LGS4RG-mnIM

My understanding is we left the Gaff poker table some weeks ago. Buy in price way too high. He won’t be at the Dees next year.

I say yes. What’s a quality fullback worth to a side that hasn’t won daytime silverware since 1964? $800k sounds about right to me.

That’s not what you said. You said Collingwood has no relevance if May nominates Melbourne. I then explained why you’re wrong. The Suns will have a say in where May goes. Just to reiterate.

Not correct in this case. May is under contract until end of 2019. If the Suns don’t like what Melbourne (or Collingwood) offer in trade they have the option of holding the player for another year then getting in all likelihood Band1 FA compo for him at the end of 2019. They will be telling May “look after us or we will hold you to your contract.” No way they are letting him go for anything less than a first round pick.

Very unlikely scenario. To get May we need to trump what Collingwood have to offer the Suns. Without the booty of a Hogan trade we don’t have much.

32 might just do it. Or straight swap for Tyson. I doubt they would accept a third rounder for him. That’s a pick in the 45-55 range. Can’t see that happening.

Yes! Worth a second round pick (20 - 30) Was pick 5 and showed great early promise. We have to plan for life after Nev and Hibbo. Both 29yo going into next season.

Agreed. And in reality we’re not that far off each other. With Freo under the pump two early-ish first rounders is a very achievable price to demand. What are they going to do? Go in again with McCarthy, Sheridan and Taberner? Say hello to the bottom four Ross. Lock it in. We’ve got our foot on their throat on this one and they know it.

I thought someone might take exception to the “generational player” and fawning epithets comment. Fair enough, you are entitled to that view and make a reasonable argument. However I would dispute your assertion that “the larger football world would have have him as the best KPF under 25.” I think if you put Hogan up against Charlie Curnow and Joe Daniher many would have him third picked in that group. Many wouldn’t sure, but no way is it a clear cut thing. The knock on Jesse at this stage (and I think it’s a fair one) is that he’s shown a propensity so far to beat up on weaker teams and go missing a bit in the bigger games. This is something a casual look at his goals to games ratio doesn’t show up unless you take a closer look at the statistics. Im not saying he isn’t a very good player. He is. But a certainty to be a Carey-esque superstar? A “generational player”? Sorry but that’s a big stretch based on the body of work I’ve seen. Plenty of potential absolutely but more than a few rough edges remain that need ironing out.

I agree. Time will tell to see if Freo are living in denial or not. If they want Hogan they’re going to have to cough up or risk a West Coast raid for him next year. To my reckoning we’ve got them right up against the wall here. Pay up or shut up.

Priority No.1 signing this guy. Forget that he is not 200cm. May is a hard-as-nails, quick, nicely skilled fullback with more than a touch of the ‘unsociable’ about him. The Suns didn’t make him captain for no reason. If we’re going to seriously threaten for the pennant supporters need to let go of the idea that a combo of Frost and Oscar in the key defensive posts is going to get us there. It isn’t. I suspect Frost may be off to his third club if we succeed in bringing May in. The Suns could definitely use him if they lose their best defender to us.

Greetings Demonlanders. Long time reader first time poster. This has been an interesting thread to follow. Opinions have ranged from the extremes of “shut the discussion down Jessie won’t leave, the club will never trade him and you’re not a real supporter for even bringing it up” to “we should [censored] him off to Freo now and cash in for three early first rounders and Adam Cerra.” As usual the reality is going to be somewhere in between. Where there’s smoke there’s usually fire and this round of rumours is stronger than anything we’ve seen previously. I suspect Paul Roos was right the other night when he said this thing is being largely driven by Freo, in which case the Dees have to seriously consider cashing in on a player who realistically might not want to stay at the club beyond 2019. He has so far given no commitment to doing so. We have shown on a number of occasions over several seasons that we can win and win well without Hogan, against quality opposition no less. So, if he is open to going and Freo are prepared to pay the freight, let’s put this situation to our advantage and use it to actually strengthen the 22 overall. A year from now he comes out of contract and we may not be blessed with such an opportunity. The multi-million dollar question is ... what’s he worth? Well, a number of factors come into play here, not least of which is how desperate and in need are Fremantle of a KPF of genuine quality? Answer: EXTREMELY. Fremantle supporters are getting restless with Ross Lyon facing the very real possibility of losing his job if he can’t manufacture something for them to get excited about next year. They haven’t had a reliable marking goalkicker since Pav hung them up. Make no mistake the Freo hierarchy will be sitting around a board table very nervous about entering yet another season with a shizen forward line and the more pressure we place on them on this trade the more likely they are to blink and cough up a handsome price in return. This is why the trading Hogan now should be quite attractive to us. For bloody once we have the whip hand and the other club over a barrel. Ain’t that nice! That said I do think we have to be careful here not to chronically overrate Hogan and bandy around terms like “generational player”, “superstar” and all the other fawning epithets us one-eyed fans are want to put on our favourite players at times. A cold, clear analysis of Hogan’s output and abilities do not put him in the Wayne Carey/Jonathan Brown/Buddy Franklin class but do suggest he’s in the next tier down from these guys. He’s a fine player but there are enough minor flaws there to suggest Freo will walk away if our claims are too ambit and ridiculous. Pick 4 & 5 and a quality player? It’s not going to happen folks. On the balance of it I’d say we will push for something like picks 5 & 9 in a strong draft with Freo holding out until the final day of trade week for something like pick 5 & either a second rounder or player of that quality (ie. Ed Langdon). We should not do that deal. We had to prize Jake Lever out of Adelaide with what many thought was ‘overs’ at the time. Freo can damn well do the same now if they are serious about slotting Jessie Hogan at full forward for round 1, 2019. I hope Josh Mahoney and Co are smart enough and tough enough to do what needs to be done here at the trade table. Recognise that Freo and Ross Lyon are in a bit of a desperate situation and make them ante up a bit more than they’d like to. Then we can look at on trading Pick 9 to the Suns for Steve May, with Pick 5 going to GWS for Dylan Shiel (who I hear we are seriously into as well). An outcome of that nature would strengthen our 22 on the balance of it and go close to having the bookies installing us as premiership favourites next year. At the end of the day that’s what it’s all about isn’t it? Be bold and get it done Dees!