Matsuo Basho

Right. The Suns will hand over their contracted Captain, a sought after fullback being chased by at least three Victorian clubs, for pick 30. There’s “unlikely” then there’s “don’t drink and post”.

Two reasons: - Pick 14 to 18 will not be enough secure May. - The Suns don’t want more future draft picks. They want to improve their side now.

I’m with you Adonski. Opportunity is knocking on the door with May now when we have the post-Hogan trade currency to nab him from under the noses of Collingwood and others. Who’s to say what the landscape will be in 12 months when he becomes an RFA? Maybe a host of other clubs get involved and one trumps our offer. Maybe our hands are tied because of another impending trade. Circumstances change. You strike while the iron’s hot in this situation.

I would hate to play the Eagles in the GF next year and see our hopes slip away as Kennedy gets a hold of Oscar. We need Steven May.

A closer statistical look at Jesse Hogan’s 2018 is revealing. 20 games, 47 goals @ 2.4 goals per game. Okay, pretty good but let’s break that down into performances against the top 10 clubs on the ladder versus his returns against the bottom 8 clubs. Hogan v Top 10 Clubs: 8 games, 9 goals @ 1.1 per game Hogan v Bottom 8 Clubs: 12 games, 38 goals @ 3.2 per game Conclusion: Pretty self explanatory. A talented young key forward who currently beats up on lesser defenders but goes consistently missing in the bigger games against quality opposition. “Generational player” ... No. Potential to develop into top five in comp quality AFL key forward ... Yes. Pick 9 & 10 ... About right. But we should hold out for 5 & 10 and see if Freo blink.

I want picks 6 & 10 but would not be surprised if we accept 9 & 10 at the end of the day. Most non-MFC supporters and the AFL industry intelligentsia will reckon that’s about right or even a bit over the odds. Then ... 10 & Frost to Suns for May & Kolodjashnij 9 & 2019 first rounder for Shiel & 2019 second rounder In: May, Shiel, Kolodjashnij, future GWS 2nd rounder Out: Hogan, Frost, future MFC first rounder * Before anyone bleats about the 2019 first round for second round pick swap element, Melbourne’s first round pick next year is likely to be in the 15-18 range. Pick 9 & 18 for Shiel is about his currency. He is a jet. This or something like this seems around the mark on what type of outcome we will see here. Fans need to shelve the pie-in-the-sky stuff and be realistic. It’d still be a good result for the club. We are not going to take 18yo kids in the first round at this draft given our age profile and entry into a premiership window. We are going to add quality players in the 23 - 27yo age bracket. Just watch.

Why? He’s in the best 5 key backmen in the league and the Sun’s captain. St.Kilda paid out pick 5 for Jake Carlisle for Chrissakes. You’d pay pick 10 for May and not look back. How many pick 10’s have amounted to nothing? Probably 50% of them.

I understand your perspective but I honestly feel it’s an overreaction. Not only because I rate Hogan a slightly inferior player to the way you view him, but also because this isn’t the NFL or the NBA where a single franchise player can come in and mean the difference between winning a premiership or not. Did the Blues win one with Judd? How are Sydney going with Buddy. Close but no cigar. No, AFL footy is more nuanced and team orientated than that. Key forwards are great but they don’t hold all the aces the way the perhaps once did. Freo will add a fantastic player to their list but the Demons have an opportunity here to make a great fist of this situation and fix up several areas of the 22 which may have otherwise hindered us from winning a premiership/s. Key defence and outside midfield class. If we can bolster these areas and look to Weideman, Petracca and others to step up in class and support TMac in the forward 50, it is very arguable we’ll have a stronger TEAM overall than we would have had Hogan remained. Very arguable. We beat some top teams without Hogan in 2017 and 2018, including some big victories interstate. He’s a very good player but his loss is not the catastrophe you’re making it out to be ... IF (and that’s a big “if”) we play our cards right here and make those p.ricks out West pay through the nose for him. That’s my take anyway.

$$$$$$$$$$ “KACHING” !! Might not be the only reason but I’d suggest it’d be the main one. At the end of the day you’re a professional footballer at the elite level for ten years, with the ever present possibility of going down with a buckled knee every time you run out onto the park. Make hay while the sun shines. Who can blame him? Few would say they’d knock it back and keep a straight face. Plus his Mum is there. His only remaining parent. The lad is only 23 and been away from his Mum since he was a teenager. Let’s cut the lad some slack. Good luck to him. We move on.

We shall see. They’ve also balls’d up a fair few. We have every reason to lean hard on Freo here. That’s not being faux tough it’s just the way the cards are stacked. In our favour.

I’m nervous that Mahoney and Co are not going to drive a hard bargain. If we lose Hogan for May and chump change that will be a seriously disappointing outcome. It must be May and either a very good pick or a very good starting 22 player. I want May but no way is he of equal value to Hogan, not to mention the fact that we have the whip hand over Fremantle in this exchange. They need the player more than we need to give him. Like many Demon supporters I will be watching on with keen critical interest as to how shrewdly we negotiate this. We traditionally have not been renowned for coming out on the winning side of trade table deals. A few yes but more often than not we’ve been the ones picking up the dropped soap in the prison shower. I hope those days are over.

I get that and it’s probably a long shot. However there were stories coming out of Perth during the year that he was/is unhappy playing under Ross Lyon. Lyon himself even came out publically to try and quash the rumours. It never hurts to discretely ask the question. Never say never. Things change.

Care to elaborate? Triple premiership wingman and Doig Medallist (2017). Still only 25yo. Hogan not averse to staying out ‘til the wee hours himself on occasion. Does that make him “damaged goods”?

If the deal on the table for Hogan was pick 5 & Brad Hill ... would you take it? Send pick 5 and Frost to the Suns for May and Kolodjashnij. 2019 R1 Side: Jetta May OMac Salem Lever Hibberd Hill Oliver Kolodjashnij Petracca Weideman Jones Spargo TMac Melksham Gawn Brayshaw Viney Harmes Lewis ANB Hannan To me this is would be a significant improvement on the 2018 version of Melbourne. Shore up the defence with May while adding some class run, carry and delivery on the outside of midfield. We’ve got the grunt covered. Now’s the time to add a bit of polish. Be very happy if we emerged from trade week with an outcome like this. Pretty much all depends on what Hogan does of course.

If a Fremantle player comes into the equation (other than Cerra or Andy Brayshaw) I wouldn’t be interested in Ed Langin, I’d be asking after Brad Hill. He’d be very handy on a wing for the Dees, won their B&F in 2017, triple premiership player and still only 25yo. There were rumours during the year too that Hill isn’t entirely happy playing ‘Ross Lyon footy’. https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2018-ross-lyon-shuts-down-rumours-about-brad-hill-departing-fremantle/news-story/15a6cf9f731b0fec4d26c1e59415f18d

https://youtu.be/LGS4RG-mnIM

My understanding is we left the Gaff poker table some weeks ago. Buy in price way too high. He won’t be at the Dees next year.

I say yes. What’s a quality fullback worth to a side that hasn’t won daytime silverware since 1964? $800k sounds about right to me.

That’s not what you said. You said Collingwood has no relevance if May nominates Melbourne. I then explained why you’re wrong. The Suns will have a say in where May goes. Just to reiterate.

Not correct in this case. May is under contract until end of 2019. If the Suns don’t like what Melbourne (or Collingwood) offer in trade they have the option of holding the player for another year then getting in all likelihood Band1 FA compo for him at the end of 2019. They will be telling May “look after us or we will hold you to your contract.” No way they are letting him go for anything less than a first round pick.

Very unlikely scenario. To get May we need to trump what Collingwood have to offer the Suns. Without the booty of a Hogan trade we don’t have much.

32 might just do it. Or straight swap for Tyson. I doubt they would accept a third rounder for him. That’s a pick in the 45-55 range. Can’t see that happening.

Yes! Worth a second round pick (20 - 30) Was pick 5 and showed great early promise. We have to plan for life after Nev and Hibbo. Both 29yo going into next season.

Agreed. And in reality we’re not that far off each other. With Freo under the pump two early-ish first rounders is a very achievable price to demand. What are they going to do? Go in again with McCarthy, Sheridan and Taberner? Say hello to the bottom four Ross. Lock it in. We’ve got our foot on their throat on this one and they know it.

I thought someone might take exception to the “generational player” and fawning epithets comment. Fair enough, you are entitled to that view and make a reasonable argument. However I would dispute your assertion that “the larger football world would have have him as the best KPF under 25.” I think if you put Hogan up against Charlie Curnow and Joe Daniher many would have him third picked in that group. Many wouldn’t sure, but no way is it a clear cut thing. The knock on Jesse at this stage (and I think it’s a fair one) is that he’s shown a propensity so far to beat up on weaker teams and go missing a bit in the bigger games. This is something a casual look at his goals to games ratio doesn’t show up unless you take a closer look at the statistics. Im not saying he isn’t a very good player. He is. But a certainty to be a Carey-esque superstar? A “generational player”? Sorry but that’s a big stretch based on the body of work I’ve seen. Plenty of potential absolutely but more than a few rough edges remain that need ironing out.