titan_uranus

I don't get the hysteria. May is out. We want a KPD to replace him, hence OMac. Lockahrt is out. We want a runner to replace him, hence Baker. Preuss is out. We want a KPF to replace him, hence T Smith. The article says Weideman and Hore are named as emergencies but returning via the VFL for match fitness. I suppose the only point to that is to have them available as genuine "emergencies" if needed, but otherwise the message on both of them is they need a game through the VFL. I'm not really a fan of OMac or of T Smith and would rather not have either of them in the side but in the context of the above, I completely understand why they've been picked.

Problem is they got the first one (ladder position last year) wrong. It says we finished 3rd last year but we finished 4th overall (losing prelim but Richmond were higher on the ladder so finish 3rd), or 5th on H&A ladder position (which is the position the articles gives Fremantle for 2015, when it finished top of the ladder).

Far out praha. In your previous post you said that it's not arguable that 2019 is an aberration. You absolutely are manipulating stats and history to suit your argument. I'm not just talking W-L, either. You're the one who started the embarrassing records thread in (IIRC) 2015. Over the 2015-2018 period we struck almost every single one of those records off the book (except, yes, the big one). We grew our membership, we gained stability and at least a degree of professionalism off-field, we continue to sign up our young A-grade (or possible A-grade) players and we've attracted at least some good talent from other clubs. This year has been shocking in almost all respects, but until we see what 2020 brings I do not agree with your assessment that it's not possible this year was an aberration, and I do not agree with your argument that 2018 being the only season of finals since 2006 indicates it was an aberration given the above context. I can tell you that it's certainly not the latter. I enjoy reading your contributions when you talk about football. The two posts you went on to quote were from last year. Forgive me if I either can't recall them or didn't see them at the time. Unfortunately the overwhelming attitude that comes from you is swipes at people, like the below post, and adoption of a "holier than thou" attitude. It's annoying mainly because your thoughts on the club are interesting, engaging and well-reasoned. But it feels like 95% of your posts are sassy one-liners. I think the phrase "happy-go-luckies" is as objectionable as the phrase "wrist-slashers". Just because I'm less pessimistic than some people doesn't mean I'm "happy" with 2019, nor that I think we're all good to go for 2020. My view on our forward half inefficiency is that it's strongly dependent on two key things: lack of marking forwards (meaning our kicks inside 50 aren't getting retained through a mark) and lack of defensive pressure when the ball too often hits the ground (meaning those dropped marks then slingshot straight back out of our forward line). As to the former, I think we've been badly hurt by TMac's lack of form and I think Goodwin waited too long hoping he'd come good. A similar issue with Weideman. We've then put faith in Hannan to get back to 2018 levels of output and he hasn't either, whether that's a fitness issue or not. We've also been hurt, I suspect, with J Smith's injury - it looked over the pre-season like we were planning on him playing a third tall role and then that couldn't eventuate. Getting Fritsch into the forward line was done too late but really should be a standard selection from Goodwin (i.e. it's either forward or the VFL for Fritsch). As to pressure, we've been badly let down by Spargo and Garlett when each have been in the side and I'm not sure we've done enough to fix that problem. In terms of preparing for 2020 I want to see us focus on these two things. I want to see a forward line that gets better at marking the ball, with players on proper leads at the ball carrier providing options to our mids (who need to subsequently hit those targets). And I want to see small forwards willing and able to create more opportunities when the ball hits the deck. IMO, even a relatively small improvement in that area will improve our overall form significantly. It will increase shots on goal, increase the percentage of the game spent in our forward half, and decrease the number of pressure-free rebound 50s that our opponents get, which in turn decreases the pressure on our defence (although the acquisition of May, the reintegration of Lever, the improvement of Frost and the removal of OMac from the backline are helping there anyway).

Pot kettle? When was the last time you went into depth about anything? Huh? If we've got one thing going for us it's our effort. Collingwood's injuries have made them play worse than they could, which is sort of what's happened to us. Collingwood's done a better job of it though, but I don't subscribe to the argument that because one club is capable of adjusting to injuries then all clubs should be able to. However, I also don't subscribe to the argument that we can put our 2019 down to injuries and nothing else. Based on the football we're playing. There isn't that much between us and the sides above us. Ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous. It's been argued by a number of posters in this thread, convincingly, fairly and with reason and statistics. You just don't like it. It's possible that 2018 was the peak of our growth. It's also possible that 2019 is an aberration. Both are arguable. Based on the four previous years of linear growth, I'm more than happy to back in the latter argument against yours. But of course, we won't know for sure until we see 2020.

We've been over this in one of the many other threads in which you post your grandiose statement about how bad things actually are. We got better every year from 2014 to 2018. Averaging out our ladder position over that time is unrealistic, unfair and hides that truth.

As @La Dee-vina Comedia said, it's really only meaningless if you don't want to put any stock in it. Of course, you're right about context, but that sort of makes my point. At the moment we have four years of improvement I'm more than happy to see what 2020 brings. If we're playing like this in the opening month or two next year, that will provide sufficient "context" to see that this season was more than just an aberration. But without that context, I'm happy to back us on the available evidence, which at this stage is four years of improvement.

Following on from @Lucifer's Hero's earlier post looking at what we're doing and where we've changed our game, from watching us post-bye it certainly feels to me like we are trying to play differently, with less playing on at all costs, more kick-mark and trying to be less reliant on winning CPs and stoppages. These are things I've been wanting to see us do and I feel we've been doing them since the Fremantle game, so I think it's fair to say they're deliberate changes at coaching and playing level to try to change our game plan. We still have forward half issues but those are to an extent understandable with a few key forward players missing. Massive work still needs to be done in that area though.

We were the highest scoring side last year and that was the case even in the games Hogan didn't play (i.e. with the same forward line as we have this year). Four previous seasons of W-L improvement is a more relevant "trend".

Opening the season 1-5 with four beltings, unfitness, further injuries, and our gameplan being repeatedly unpacked and taken to pieces is where this season went to water. 4-7 since then but if you ranked our 12 losses, my view is that the worst five were the first five. We've made mid-season changes to the coaches, to the players (e.g. Jones, Lewis, Brayshaw, Fritsch), and to the game plan (more kick-mark, less play on, less reliance on stoppages). We're getting our first choice back six playing together. It's not there yet, but I think we can get it there and with a good off-season, some key list changes, and a focus on this modified game plan, 2020 can be significantly different to 2019.

That's (at least?) the third time this year we've lost despite leading at three quarter time (WC twice, Adelaide). The disappointment is that taking just one or two of those chances and going on to win would give us some of the confidence we are clearly lacking. Would obviously also have us out of the bottom 2. We're not as far off the top 8 as a 5-12 record and 17th place on the ladder would suggest. The problem is, neither are most other sides. It's an even comp, and we've made so many mistakes that 16 other sides have been able to muster a better record. Still too many turnovers, still too many players taking the wrong option in the forward half, still too many easy shots on goal being missed, still too many defenders who haven't played with each another enough. Preuss and ANB should be in the VFL (Preuss seems to be the opposite of a whipping boy - getting plaudits for doing absolutely zero on the back of the fact that, what, he's got a big body?). Fritsch is a forward, I hope we keep it that way. I remain confident that we're not as far off turning this around as many others think, but I'm increasingly frustrated at the same mistakes being shown each week.

I hope the people who got stuck into May at various times this year (particularly the pub beer moment), or whinged about the Hogan-May trade, read this article and reflect on their positions.

IMO, the severity of our crash (i.e. our ladder position) doesn't align with our overall form/performances. Since ANZAC Eve we're 4-6 and those 6 losses included Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane and the Dogs (i.e. games that we had the lead for significant periods of time). Our season was shot early (and I'm not trying to pin that all to injuries/the pre-season), but over the last 10 weeks my view is that our form has been mid-table average, not bottom-2 rubbish. Just my opinion, others will disagree.

What a thread.

Just out of interest, what were you expecting?

I was at the Richmond game today. A few things I noticed that stand out when watching sides other than us: Their forwards held marks so much more often than ours do. Whether it was across half-back when trying to clear their defensive 50, or in the forward 50 when it was congested, they had Lynch and Riewoldt (amongst others) actually clunking marks They also generally kept one or two forwards deep, generally having someone forward of the play all the time and allowing them to have someone leading up at the ball carrier With those leads and marking forwards, even when the ball wasn't marked when it hit the ground there was immediate pressure through the middle Their mids, when getting their hands on the ball, took a couple of steps from the contest before kicking

The same people get [censored] off when posters say it's all 186 or the 87 prelim, without even for a second explaining how those events are causing the current problem. Even your sentence of "history repeats. Culture lingers" doesn't explain how what the club did in 1987 or 2011 is impacting on what's going on right now. Until this year we had five consecutive years of improvement in a W-L sense. You started a thread about the embarrassing records we were setting in the 2007-2013 period and we knocked almost all of them off. We made finals, we won two of them, we cracked 50,000 members. Then 2019 happened, and it has been a disaster on almost every front. But 2019 on its own is not enough evidence for me to think we've "regressed" to a point that connects the 2019 MFC to the 2011 MFC, for example. There are well documented and recent examples of clubs building, hitting their straps, but then taking a step or two back (Geelong 2006, Richmond 2016. Even Hawthorn 2009 and the Dogs 2017-18, although it mattered a lot less for them given their early flag wins). I don't agree with anyone who says we're a lock to be good again in 2020. But for the same reason (it's impossible to say until we hit 2020 and see what happens), I don't agree with people who say we're back to square one or that this year has seen us regress back to the "old MFC".

As I said in another thread, have a look at who our forward line was on the weekend: Petty, Lockhart, Dunkley, Fritsch, Hunt, ANB, Petracca. Of those, only two would have been in our first choice forward line over the pre-season, and of those two one (ANB) has always had a problem of struggling when the rest of the side is down. Of the rest, two weren't even on the list for the pre-season, one has been mis-managed in terms of being asked to play too many positions in his first two seasons, and one was groomed as a defender. In form and available forwards have been non-existent for us this year. That's a combination of injuries, but also shifting responsibility (e.g. TMac and Weideman) and increased expectation (e.g. Spargo and ANB). But I've said a couple of times now that I don't think we're that far off turning it around, and this statistic (inside 50 retention/scoring) is the one thing that is holding us back more than anything else. We developed our list and gameplan around dominating in the middle and creating significant amount of ball in our forward half. That sort of gameplan just does not work unless we hold marks inside 50, and unleash pressure through our forward half. We've done neither of those this year. TMac and Weideman have struggled to hold marks and we haven't had a proper third tall (J Smith could have played that role, T Smith is just a VFL battler, vandenBerg hasn't played, Petracca is being asked to do too much and isn't always succeeding, Melksham is injured, Fritsch has been in the backline). And with stacks of ball hitting the ground, we haven't been able to lock it in. Spargo and ANB have gone backwards from last year (in Spargo's case significantly), Hunt is just OK but exhausts himself too often, Hannan's struggled when fit, again no vandenBerg hurts, and our midfielders aren't two-way running and putting in enough defensive effort. Without marking and forward pressure, the ball rebounds out of our forward half with ease and our backline gets put under inordinate pressure. Then strip that backline of May, Lever and Jetta, take Hibberd and Salem out for periods, put an out-of-form OMac in there and a first year player in Hore, and here we are at 5-11. My view remains that if we improve our forward pressure and hold some more marks inside 50, our overall performance will lift significantly.

If that's your standard then we have one of those wins this year - Fremantle. And as to your second line, what about Collingwood last year, who finished the H&A season with one win over last year's finalists (us)?

Nup, not any more. I reckon he's worked much harder this year to develop consistency in his game. If I have concerns over our young mids, it's over Oliver, Harmes and Brayshaw. I don't see enough defensive running from any of them (Oliver in particular). I don't see enough buckling down when the going gets tough. I don't see enough leadership. I see too much sulking, too much poor body language and too much selfishness from each of them. All fixable things, and if we're going to go anywhere as a club then these three need to learn from their flaws.

The disappointment I feel with the game comes from seeing the same mistakes being made. We were dominant in the second quarter but didn't put it on the scoreboard. We generated plenty of time inside our forward half/50 but didn't score. But we played with a makeshift forward line (none of Petty, Hunt, Preuss, Lockhart or Dunkley were in our plans for our 2019 forward line during the pre-season, I doubt Fritsch was either, but here we are. I mean, Lockhart and Dunkley weren't even on our list!) and we played with two underdone defenders (Lever, Jetta). My view has been that if anyone is borderline on fitness we shouldn't be playing them in this long-dead season, but I want to see us keep Lever and Jetta in the side to get our best backline working together and using these last 6 games to gel. Our big problem is our forward line though. Not enough pressure, too many out of form/low on confidence players, it's all just not working. Petty was promising and Fritsch is a better forward than he is a defender/wing, but my view is that if we don't markedly lift our defensive pressure in our forward half, we aren't going to improve. Conversely, upgrading out defensive pressure in our forward half will make significant difference given the rest of our gameplan.

Watched from just after Lloyd's two goals. We're doing better than this thread suggests but still not great. Massive amount of ball in our forward half but continued poor kicking inside, dropped marks, poor positioning, mistakes (e.g. Brayshaw's lack of awareness) are killing us. Dominating through the middle though and their last goal was just an appalling free kick against Gawn. I reckon many on here are over-rating Preuss. Maybe his shoulder is sore but his tapwork is nothing special, and when it hits the ground he's a liability at the moment.

He's certainly talented and capable of tearing us apart, but consistency is not his thing. He's kicked 22 goals but 9 of those have been in two games (5 when he ripped Richmond to shreds, 4 last week vs Geelong) meaning 13 in the other 12 games. He'd only kicked 4 goals in the previous 6 games before last week. We have to back May in to be able to stop him.

Enjoying the debate in here about the issues between our mids and forwards. IMO it's a combination of weaknesses in both areas. I think our mids are doing a lot right, and certainly a lot right in terms of the way Goodwin has trained us to play, but we still have a number of mids who make bad mistakes by foot when trying to kick inside 50 - Viney is too up-and-under with his kicks, under pressure Oliver goes for distance, Brayshaw is unreliable (but to be commended for at least going onto his non-preferred). Early-season we had a team-wide problem of failing to lower our eyes as well, just sending it as deep as possible. However, I think some (but not all) of these issues are caused or exacerbated by the forwards all being down on 2018 levels of output. There's less confidence, less leading up at the ball carrier, too many leads to the pockets, and a lack of marking form (TMac, Weideman and Hannan all worse than last year and obviously no Hogan). And then, possibly the biggest problem, is the lack of pressure when it hits the ground. All year it's been too easy for our opponents to rebound out of our forward 50 - Spargo and ANB nowhere near where they were last year, Garlett not consistently defending when he was in the side, the talls who have been down there (TMac, Weid, Preuss, T Smith, Keilty) all struggling with their defensive pressure in various ways. My view is that some incremental improvements in these areas can lead to drastic improvements in our form - even like 25% more defensive pressure is going to prevent a number of the rebounds out of our forward 50, we'll generate more scores when we go inside, the game will be played more in our forward half, all of that will lead to confidence building from our mids and forwards and it spirals from there (just as it has spiralled the other way this year). But that 25% improvement won't come without hard work, better coaching and targeted list improvements over the off-season.

Petty if we have to. We need to be getting games into May, Frost and Lever (along with Hibberd, Jetta and Salem, and Hore if/when we can) as a defensive unit.

Hoping to see Petracca, ANB, Dunkkley and Lockhart on the bench (with Petty making way and joining OMac and the Wagners as emergencies). Just not sure we need May, Frost, Lever and Petty in the side, let alone against the Dogs (and certainly not OMac on top of that).