titan_uranus

From what I've seen of Carey in the media, he's pretty quick to distance himself from "new school" football and training methods, so I'm actually a bit surprised that he puts as much stock in the pre-season as he does.

I think it's probably a bit of all of those things. I think teams looked at us in 2018 and when planning for us in 2019, they've focused on how they set up at stoppages. I think the way we approach stoppages also means that if we're off (in that we don't convert our first touch into a clean chain away and a decent inside 50) we're set up to be exploited by our opponent. And I think that the mistakes we were making, leading to repeat wasted inside 50s, sapped us of confidence and that affects our mids' ongoing work rate. I reckon we've been trying to change this in the back half of 2019 but it's nowhere near fixed yet.

Because if we stand to gain anything from these last few games, it's trying to get some cohesion as a unit between Lever, May and Frost. And because the player who went forward needed to ruck as well (and OMac was easier to sacrifice into the ruck than May). And because OMac's career is floundering so why not see if he could do something different as a forward. I wanted Hore to play but they made a call with the height of our backline, including Hibberd. Just because we lost and Hibberd struggled doesn't mean we're tanking. Not great analysis, Rusty. Brayshaw didn't show "eagnerness" to leave Pendlebury. That's one example, highlighted in slow motion, and not even that bad of a decision from Brayshaw. Jones wasn't just leaving Sidebottom for the sake of it. Goodwin was trying to bring run off the back of the square. This has been done to death now. Varcoe did kick two goals but had no real influence on the game otherwise. At any rate, which speedy player should we have played on him anyway, if you're that concerned by his pace? We're slow whether we're "tanking" or not. The Oscar v Hore thing is explicable. I'd have played Hore anyway, but they weren't going to ruck Hore, or May, so someone had to play that second ruck role (and I do not agree that May is a good option for that role).

Now that's an interesting debate. Champion Data defines a clearance as "Credited to the player who has the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or an ineffective kick or clanger kick that clears the stoppage area". So I don't think either of your examples would be a clearance as neither of them "clear the stoppage area". Having said that, an ineffective kick or a clanger kick that clears the stoppage area counts. I suspect there are quite a number of these in any given game from our mids. I would agree with you that the quality of our clearances is not as high as other sides. I think we still get our hands on the ball a lot in the middle, and Gawn helps with that, but I think we then struggle to convert that first touch into a clearance which translates into retaining the ball. A lot of the time it feels like a rushed/hacked kick forward and/or a turnover. But the strength of our mids in getting the ball and being the ones to at least control it out of the stoppage is still there, as it was in 2018.

I don't usually like cherry picking an individual play because there's often a loss of context, and it's so easy to freeze the frame and make comments when the reality of a footy game is that things happen in split seconds. In saying this, the general problem of us having too many players commit to a contest is a genuine issue we've had for years. It happens at stoppages and it happens in marking contests. Too many of our players go to the ball. Some of that is, I think, because we drafted players with that ball-hunting instinct and trying to coach instinct out of players can be very difficult. With the stoppages, some of it will also be because of how we have developed the list and game plan to start with contested ball. I'm not sure I agree with all of the criticism of Brayshaw - one of our problems is a lack of spread and I'm confident he's listening to the coaches and trying to get some outside run from contests so that, when we win a contested ball, we have someone to be on the end of the next kick. We had plenty of players at that contest and should have at least nullified it, if not won it.

Not really. We're 4th in clearance differential this year (i.e. more clearances than our opponents).

I'll take that as a no.

Just out of interest, have you ever posted anything that's even neutral, let alone positive, on here?

Anything can be "considered suspicious" if that's how you want to think. Read @DeeSpencer's post in thread about Gawn and whether we cost him an AA spot to understand why Sidebottom was "left alone" (which isn't accurate). OMac in the forward line at least makes sense given our injuries and lack of others to play that role (Preuss last week being so bad as to be dropped). I don't agree with Hore playing VFL but with May, Lever and Frost all in the side was there a spot for him alongside those three? Our fitness has been terrible all season, so unless you think we've been tanking since Round 1, I'm not sure that's a great argument either.

Great post. I don't necessarily agree with all of it (the runner off half-back was clearly not working by HT but we persisted), but at least here is a post from someone who has taken some time to think about the tactics, to consider them in context, and to discuss the pros and cons of them. The Sidebottom thing is a complete non-issue. He's been nowhere near as good as he could be and I have no problem with us focusing on Treloar and Adam (much more damaging in 2019) instead. The "look" of him being alone on the wing was just that, an appearance. Commenting on it without the context of why we had Jones/Salem dropping back indicates superficial analysis (which is too often what we get from David King).

As posted above, that's not what he said. Agree re: your comments on Fogarty. Not sure I agree re: Jenkins, who I don't rate. I do understand the logic though, in getting someone established who might be able to take the first defender, or if not then the second which takes pressure of Weideman. My concern is that I don't think Jenkins will do much for us and so won't hold a spot in the 22, or the first defender.

Can't believe there have been six posts in this thread and none of them have mentioned 186. @Sir Why You Little would be disappointed.

I understand the thinking, but if the season ended today I don't think there would be too many who would disagree with the club delisting Stretch. So what do we stand to do to our list if we give him the last two finals-irrelevant games in a dead season? If he plays well, then what? I don't like the phrase "list clogging" but I fear that is the sort of position we'd be putting ourselves in if we give another contract to a player who has struggled all year but who impresses in the last two dead rubbers of the year. I'd rather put the last two games into younger players who are certainties to be on the list and either in, or fighting for, a spot in the Round 1 side - e.g. Baker or Lockhart.

Just to clarify, that's not what he said. He said if he was playing now he thinks it would be hardest to get a kick on Frost than the other two. It's probably accurate when compared to Lever, but not May. May's copping it for being repeatedly injured but his actual performances when he's been on the park have been everything we should have expected from May, and more. Pretty crap from Riewoldt IMO. In saying all that, Frost is one of only a handful players who have improved in 2019 compared to 2018. My preference is to sign Frost up and build our defence around him, May and Lever as the third tall. He should be a starting 22 key defender, and as such there shouldn't be too many better offers from rival clubs than the one we put forward, assuming we put forward a reasonable number of years and money. The only alternative, IMO, is to use his currency as one of the few uncontracted players on our list with any currency at all, to trade him out to bring in something we need more than a key defender (with the argument being that we have cover in that part of the ground in the form of OMac, or Hore, or something like that - I don't agree, but it's arguable). But if we do that, we'd be looking to either cash in on a solid draft pick(s) or bring in something we need more than Frost (e.g. a key forward, a skilful/pacy winger).

You can react however you want. But you've chosen a pessimistic reaction, which is par for the course for you. An alternative would be to consider 2019 in the context of 2014-2018. Given the changes the club implemented and the progress we made over those five years, alongside the capabilities this list showed in 2018, I don't believe the only reasonable reaction is to say we're back to 2007 (or back to 2014, or back to anything really). I'm more than happy to say I believe we can turn it around in time for 2020. And before anyone misinterprets, this doesn't mean I think we will turn it around. It means I think we can turn it around.

Given our percentage we're not moving up with one win anyway. If Carlton and Sydney can both beat St Kilda (doubtful, but possible) then we could win both games and still not move up from 17th.

So we're not even in the bottom four worst performers of the round! (GWS, GC, Essendon, North)

So I've gone and taken a look. All four of Mihocek's goals are in the highlights video on the AFL website. The first one, which it seems is the one you're referencing, Lever had the front position covered but the kick, cleverly, went behind them allowing Mihocek to run back with the flight. The second one was a panic-hold from Lever. So that's definitely one against him. The third one Lever slipped and Adams' kick was perfectly placed. The fourth one Lever wasn't in the contest. And how do you say the tackle stat is relevant? For context, Scharenberg, Mayne and Howe (all playing in key defensive posts for Collingwood) had 0 tackles. Hibberd, JKH and May also registered donuts. So it's not like Lever was on his lonesome on that front. One - watching the replay I don't think that's a fair summation of it at all. Two - agree Three - doesn't look lost to me, looks like he slipped and Mihocek got off him. Granted, I think one of Lever's problems is he's not particularly quick, so he's going to get caught on leads a bit I think. Anyway, certainly one he gave up, maybe two, but not all four, and if these are the sorts of goals he's giving up then I'm not as fussed as it seems others are.

Sure, Mihocek kicked 4, but at the game I never felt like that was because he was beating Lever (e.g. I didn't see him beating Lever in one-on-one contests, or leading him to the ball). Again, I might be wrong about that. Do you recall (or can you find video of) Mihocek's goals being a direct result of poor play by Lever?

I genuinely don't understand the Lever criticism, which I suppose might mean I'm on my own in thinking he was OK. He could be better, and we all want him to be an AA-defender week in and week out, but I thought he was pretty good today. There are so many other parts of our game today that stood out to me as problematic rather than Lever. As I said, maybe I'm on my own on this, but I really think too many have stupidly high expectations of him, the more so when the commentary around someone like Preuss is generally far more positive.

Not by Clint Bizkit's standards. Like praha and BBP, it's glass half empty, always. IMO saying our list isn't good enough and that we need to start again, aside from being pure pessimism, just isn't a reasonable position to take based on this year in the context of the last five years. If we struggle again in 2020 then that will change things, but given what we did with our list and culture from 2014-2018, I don't accept that 2019 is enough evidence to say we're cooked and we need to rebuild.

I've read somewhere that May barely had a soft tissue injury at the GC. He's now had four (three hamstrings and a groin) in 6 months here. I've also read that the GC wanted him to carry more weight than we did, so when he arrived we wanted his skinfolds lower. I'm not an expert (@Webber might be able to comment?) but I can't help but query whether the way we've managed May's body since he arrived has impacted on him in a way that has exposed him to soft tissue injuries.

6 - Petracca 5 - Fritsch 4 - May 3 - JKH 2 - Lewis 1 - Salem

I'd be most keen to see one of Viney, Jones or Brayshaw out of the side, to see what that does to our midfield mix. But I doubt that will happen. We'll probably just see Hore replace May and maybe Wagner or Baker get dropped for another fringe player.

Yep I agree with you. They need the percentage and they need to build form for their final two 8-point games. I reckon people saying they put the cue in the rack are just looking for things to be negative about.