titan_uranus

2 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Smith has played just 19 AFL games and only ever 8 games in a season. IQ and inexperience are different.

The main issues with Smith are skill related. He is so elite with athleticism that he has the ability to recover from being out of position.

Your love child Oliver could cost us a final with his poor goal kicking.

Hyperbole all round.

"So elite with athleticism". He's athletic, sure, but you're making him sound like some super-human. He's not, and no amount of athleticism fixes his repeated instances of being in the wrong spot at the wrong time. Our backline works because we have reliability between May, Petty and Lever. Smith still doesn't look to have curtailed his desire to leap and run, and whilst it didn't hurt us too badly against Adelaide, from here on out we're only playing seriously good sides and it's a risk I'd rather we don't take.

Ridiculous, too, is the argument that Oliver is as likely to "cost us a final" as Smith. There is no reasonable basis to equate the two. 

In saying that, I don't agree with @A F going that strongly on Smith. I don't think he's best 22, but it's not all that bad. 

10 hours ago, Nelo said:

Rest Petracca, Oliver and lever. We won’t be playing at the mcg for finals anyway. 

Whilst that may be so, a loss potentially consigns us to a trip to Adelaide to play Port, or to Geelong to play Geelong. There will be a crowd in Adelaide and possibly one in Geelong.

Depends a lot on what happens on Friday night, though. If the Dogs win, we can't drop below 2nd and therefore none of this becomes an issue any more. 

1 hour ago, BillyBeane said:

Was interested to see the H&A w-l formlines for each of the premiership teams of the last 10 years.  

Premiership Team Form lines last 6 rounds of H&A Season:
 
Richmond 2020 - 6-0
Richmond 2019 - 6-0
West Coast 2018 - 4-2
Richmond 2017 - 5-1
Western Bulldogs 2016 - 3-3
Hawthorn 2015 - 4-2
Hawthorn 2014 - 5-1
Hawthorn 2013 - 5-1
Sydney 2012 - 3-3
Geelong 2011 - 5-1

Formline Last 5 Games 2021 (not including final round)
Melbourne - 3-1-1
Geelong - 4-1
Western Bulldogs - 3-2
Port Adelaide - 5-0

They are just stats but Port, despite their shaky record against top teams are a genuine threat based on the numbers.  

Yep, there is increasingly little doubt that you have to be in some sort of form at the end of the season to be relevant in the finals. It's not essential, given that Richmond aside every premier has lost at least once late in the season, and some lost multiple times, but it's relevant.

If we win this weekend our 4-1-1 formline will be completely fine, but obviously Port is peaking at the right time.

48 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

And under 40s?

Totally misread the post I quoted and thought the discussion was in relation to over 40s access to the vaccine, not under 40s.

Well deserved.

I reckon we've found one here.

3 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

yes serious. But they have just announced that the bye round has been scrapped, so not going to happen. But given that they want to play finals in front of crowds (well 17 clubs anyway!), it is now extremely unlikely there will be finals in Victoria in 2 weeks. And I do think the 8 is set, it would be a brave punter to bet that Brisbane and Essendon will lose this week

I couldn't care less if you think the 8 is set, reality is it isn't, and coupled with there being two match ups that haven't yet happened, and the obvious ridiculousness of coming this far and then stopping, your idea is insane.

2 hours ago, Jaded said:

We lost to Collingwood. Technically the Hawks game was not a loss.

As @Demonstone said, I meant Fremantle missed out on Hawthorn in 2015.

We beat Hawthorn before the draw so that counts. The only side we didn't beat this year was Collingwood.

A far cry from the long losing droughts we used to have.

3 hours ago, Deefiant said:

Don't think you can say under 40's have had plenty opportunity to get it. ScoMo only announced that under 40's could get it on June 28, night https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-01/atagi-co-chair-pours-cold-water-on-morrison-az-comments/100257392. Give another week for GP's to get processes in place so it could go ahead. So realistically it was only available from July 5. Considering the 12 week gap between injections, that realistically only gives under 40's a 3 week gap to get it before the grand final. 

This also meant that people are going ATAGI's advice of waiting to get Pfizer. 

Pfizer was made available to Victorians 40 and over in late May https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/vaccine-roll-out-expand-all-victorians-40-and-over

Edit: my mistake, thought the discussion was about over 40s, not under.

16 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

Should the AFL cancel round 23, and get the current top 8 to WA to commence finals weekend of 3/4 Sept?

Not sure if serious?

The top 8 isn't currently set. It's not fair, in the extreme, to shut West Coast and Fremantle out of their shots at the 8.

The more so given St Kilda v Fremantle and Brisbane v West Coast are match ups that haven't yet happened this year.

2 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Ben Brown should have had 3 goals next to his name. The ball wasn't touched at all. They showed vision where it was blurry AF then next minute when they gave the decision they showed a much clearer version that showed that the ball wasn't even touched.

Disgraceful really.

2 hours ago, loges said:

The thing was you could even see it wasn't touched in the blurry vision.

Part of the problem was the field umpire calling it touched - it's impossible for the umpire to have seen the touch off the boot, so he's gone off the Adelaide player calling it touched.

That shouldn't happen. There also shouldn't be an "umpire's call" option for these sorts of kicks, because the umpire's call is just a guess. It's very different to the goal umpire standing on the goal line and seeing a touch.

The ARC was never going to definitively say that wasn't touched because of how blurry it was - unless they were forced to by removing the umpire's call.

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

After beating Adelaide we have now beaten 16 of 17 other AFL teams this H&A season. I swear that must be close to some record since the inception of 18 teams. 
 

A win agains the Pies on QB would have been a clean sweep.

We've tied the record with Fremantle in 2015, who beat 16 of the 17 other sides, missing out on Hawthorn only.

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Hawkins dumped in the tackle but did the umpire even pay a free kick? It was hardly dirty play worthy of missing a final.

Selwood running past the ball and bumping the head last week was a much worse action even though there was no concussion.

You hit the nail on the head with the biggest issue with the MRO being inconsistency. Stars get preferential treatment and the system is completely relaxed in the finals.

Agree.

The MRO box-ticking exercise is as big of a problem as anything. The box-ticking for what Selwood did should result in a suspension (i.e. even with little-to-no injury, if you run past the ball, bump, and hit the head, that should be a week).

1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

He did not have to lay a tackle.

Protecting the player with the ball is the number one priority.

He did not do that.

Let me repeat, he did not have to lay a tackle.

That's not a good argument.

No one ever "has to" lay a tackle. 

Take the anti-Geelong bias out of the equation, and imagine it was TMac who was chasing down Joyce in our forward line with the game and top 4 arguably on the line. I maintain there's very little chance you'd be arguing for a suspension.

10 hours ago, A F said:

This could have gone in a few of the threads, but I notice David King has finally relented and pegged us as his flag favourite on FIRST CRACK, jumping off the Dogs.

He talked about us in the last 6 weeks being #1 in a list of categories vis a vis defending without the ball and a mile better than any other team (ridiculously so), so defending ball movement, forward half intercepts etc.

He basically said, if it continues, you can't not back us.

I think the real x factor that I've completely underestimated this season going into finals is Luke Jackson. He's not as damaging or as involved for as long as Jake Stringer (who I'd say is the best player in the comp over the last 3 or 4 weeks), but given where the rest of our game sits, I thought for the first time today, this kid could actually tear the 2021 finals series up.

The fact he's started marking the ball and adding goals to his game from the contest, to add to his ability to get it on the outside, is a massive, massive development for our forward half. I worry slightly that McDonald coming back will disrupt this, but we'll have to wait and see. It worked okay against the Suns.

The other tantalising aspect to LJ's game was again on display today from stoppage. He's a freak in that not only can he rove his own tapwork ala NikNat, he's an elite user by foot at 200cm. Wowee.

So can we win it? We just need a bit more luck and I think barring a horror out of the box performance, it's ours to lose now.

We're still vulnerable when Oliver or Petracca are slightly off, but fortunately they're rarely off and then we have Viney as a finals wild card as well.

 

Whilst I agree with the sentiment and how the stats show we're as well-placed to win it this year as anyone, it's not a simple as the bolded line.

We don't need a "horror out of the box performance" to miss. There are four other very good sides in it: Geelong, Port, Brisbane and the Bulldogs (albeit the Dogs appear to be trending the wrong way at the wrong time). We know we can beat them but it won't take a "horror" match for us to lose, particularly if we lose to Geelong this week and end up playing Port in Adelaide in the first final (or, almost worse, we avoid them in the first final but lose to, say, Geelong, and then end up in Adelaide in the prelim...).

6 minutes ago, Cyclops said:

You have to hand it to Hawkins he always checks the condition of his victim to make sure he has done a good job. Such remorse. Steven May's eye socket was a work of art and h e admired it from close up.

Such remorse has probably saved him 6 weeks this season. The AFL should wake up to this serial offender.

4 minutes ago, CYB said:

He sure has a lot of accidents then doesn’t he. It’s a reckless and negligent act that he didn’t need to do. In every definition of the dangerous tackling rules - which you may remember we paid a 5 week penalty for. 

Hate Hawkins all you want, but I'm extremely confident if it were a Melbourne player who had laid that tackle you'd have been livid for a suspension.

The bigger question to come out of this week's MRO is why did Hawkins get nothing but Zaine Cordy, who did the precise same thing, got a fine. They're either both fines or they're both nothing. Again, the MRO is a broken failure.

Just now, DeeSpencer said:

We played an Adelaide team without Walker, O’Brien, Milera, B Smith, Brown, Crouch, Talia and down a tall early and we started awfully then didn’t finish them off until very late.

I know these type of games are tricky with everyone in self preservation mode but it was still far from the perfect rehearsal. There were large patches of the first 3/4’s were we couldn’t stop their transition game and we couldn’t hold on to the ball either.

We haven’t played a proper side for 3 weeks now and only done a real number on 1 of 3. I think we need a true rehearsal against the Cats to sharpen us back up.

Sure, but we were without May, Viney, TMac and Hunt, with top 4 locked up, a near dead rubber game, and playing in front of an empty stadium.

We didn't play well for 4 quarters but in those circumstances I essentially don't care.

Also what does "we haven't played a proper side for 3 weeks now" mean? West Coast in Perth might not be the force they've been in previous years but they're all of a sudden not a "proper side"?

10 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Exactly the feeling I got.

We rested a heap of our senior players more then we have in a game. I don't care how we won today, the bigger win is that we had no injuries. 

Can someone also tell me where we rated in terms of age and game experience for the round? Reckon this could have been the youngest side we have put on paper for the year also.

Average age 24 years 6 months, average experience 86.2 games.

Adelaide was younger and less experienced (24 years 4 months and 66.3 games - they had 14 players with less than 50 games yesterday, compared to our 8, and only 6 players over 100 games compared to our 12).

The entire comp from Round 22 in order of age:

1. Essendon: 24 years 0 months, 79 games
2. Gold Coast: 24 years 1 month, 68.2 games
3. Fremantle: 24 years 2 months, 64.3 games
4. Adelaide: 24 years 4 months, 66.3 games
5. Collingwood: 24 years 5 months, 95.3 games
6. St Kilda: 24 years 5 months, 88.3 games
7. Melbourne: 24 years 6 months, 86.2 games
8. GWS: 24 years 7 months, 90.1 games
9. North: 24 years 9 months, 85.9 games
10. Hawthorn: 24 years 10 months, 100.7 games
11. Sydney: 25 years 0 months, 92.3 games
12. Carlton: 25 years 3 months, 97.8 games
13. Bulldogs: 25 years 6 months, 101 games
14. Port Adelaide: 25 years 7 months, 104 games
15. Richmond: 25 years 9 months, 111.4 games
16. Brisbane: 26 years 1 month, 115.4 games
17. West Coast: 27 years 0 months, 131.2 games
18. Geelong: 27 years 6 months, 143.8 games

14 minutes ago, Docs Demons said:

Been a great year watching from Qld however we play like we did today and the coming weeks will be tough. I reckon today was nearly our worst performance for the year and we won by 7 goals. Go figure that out!.  Need to polish up on our skills and again kicking into the forwards but happy we are in this position and let's give those protected Cats a horrible thrashing to start off with and take on who ever we play there after.

Wasn't even close to our worst performance. Can't believe you'd think that.

Each of the North, first Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS and Hawthorn games was significantly worse than today.

We did precisely what we needed to do in what was in almost every respect a dead rubber of a match.

Meanwhile have just noticed that Brisbane have only played one current top 8 side since the bye: Geelong in Round 15.

Their games post-bye have been against 2nd, 10th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th, and they have 9th to come.

If we win next week we'll finish 17-1-4.

That will be the second-best H&A season put together by any club since 2013 (Richmond in 2018 finished 18-4).

6 minutes ago, gs77 said:

Interesting the vagaries of the draw there. We've played top 8 teams 9 times. Other top 4 candidates Cats, Dogs, Lions only 8 times, and Port only 7!

Assuming the top 8 doesn't change, it will be 10 for us in total, 9 for Geelong and the Dogs, and 8 for Port (given we all play top 8 sides again this weekend).

Port's repeat games this season are Adelaide, Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda and the Dogs. That's two bottom 4 sides, a bottom 6 side if Hawthorn passes Carlton this weekend and another bottom 10 side. Just one repeat game against a top 8 side.

5 hours ago, DeeZee said:

John Ralph just reports his own opinion.

Nothing official about what he said.

Everyone please read this post.

Repeatedly.

Jon Ralph isn't worth listening to. He doesn't have any inside information and repeatedly his "breaking news" is just the latest thought that's popped into his head that he wants to turn into another click bait article on Fox Footy.

With Essendon replacing West Coast, here is the top 8's record the current top 8:

• Melbourne: 7-2
• Sydney: 6-3
• GWS: 5-5
• Geelong: 4-4
• Bulldogs: 4-4
• Brisbane: 4-4
• Port: 3-4
• Essendon: 1-8

1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

The bottom half of the top eight look just as dangerous as the top half.

1 hour ago, Chook said:

Most of the form teams are in the bottom half. I would hate to come across the Swans or GWS in finals. We'd win cos I think we're the best, but damn. What a year to win a flag if you can do it.

Essendon has won 5 games since the bye.

Those wins have been over 4th, 14th, 15th, 17th and 18th.

If they win next week, they'll add 16th.

So that's the bottom five, plus the Dogs in a form slump.

I maintain their form is a mirage.

1 hour ago, Jaded said:

You need to remember tho that a lot of these sides have put so much effort just to make finals it’s going to be a big ask to have them continue at this pace. 
Sydney is the only side in the bottom part of the 8 that really scares me.
GWS are also very good but again their form is very up and down and they barely made the 8. Losing to them earlier this year will also be a good thing for us as we won’t take them lightly. 

If Brisbane are getting their game to click, they're better than Sydney IMO. Would not want to draw them in the semi final if we lose the first final.

56 minutes ago, Cheesy D. Pun said:

I didn't have to draw a conclusion, it's an historical fact.

Now, it doesn't mean I'm saying he's a gun player, but I think it's pretty fair to assume that the selection committee like him if he's being picked for round one games when available.

He has had a horrid run with injury and I'm open to the argument that these ongoing injury issues are enough to warrant him being let go.

That said, he's played no more than four consecutive games in his AFL career, almost exclusively due to injury. I can't see how that's enough footy to make a judgement.

His footy at VFL level has been exceptional.

I read your post as a statement about the future, not a reflection on the past.

You've concluded that, because he played Round 1 in 2017, which apparently (I'll take your word for it, it certainly sounds believable) is the only time he's been available for selection in Round 1, the FD likes him.

I'll take his non-selection for the many weeks he's been fit in 2021 as better evidence of the FD's current views on him.

6 minutes ago, brendan said:

Geez so much will be riding on that Friday night game if dogs win I can see both swans and lions resting players as they can’t move into top 4 and can’t move down, it also allows us to rest players as we can’t drop below 2nd same with Geelong, if port win then that opens up everything as lions can jump into 4th and we need to win to avoid trip to Adelaide 

5th gets you Essendon/Fremantle, but 6th gets you GWS.

For all the media-fapping over Essendon, I still don't rate them. I reckon 5th is preferable to 6th and drawing GWS in the first final. So I reckon Brisbane and Sydney will both be pushing to win their final games to avoid dropping to 6th.

47 minutes ago, bingers said:

Best result is WB beating Port on Friday night .... Demons would finish 1st (if we beat Jee-long) or 2nd (if we don't).

If Port win, and Geelong win, Demons play Port in Adelaide. Not a great outcome.

So, I'll be hoping for WB win, or if Port win, hoping for a Demons win.

If WB win, then I'm not too fussed about Demons v Geelong other than not wanting injuries, or if Geelong win, not by too much.

I had previously posted this too but it's not entirely correct.

if Port and Geelong both win, Port could pass Geelong on percentage (i.e. if Port wins by a lot and Geelong only wins by a little bit -  the gap between them is only 1.3%).

So it's possible if we lose and the Dogs lose that we could finish 3rd and play Geelong again the following week.