titan_uranus
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Posts posted by titan_uranus
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27 minutes ago, Nascent said:
My main concern about this game is Brisbanes dangerous small forwards in Cameron, McCarthy and Bailey.
Rivers, Bowey and Smith are a lot of youth and inexperience that could be exposed here. Do we bring in Hibberd to play a hard lockdown role?
When we played them in Round 12, their first half dominance came not through the smalls but the talls.
Daniher and Hipwood were marking everything and that gave them their scoring opportunities.
In the second half our tall defenders improved and when we started spoiling their marks, they struggled to score.
Interestingly we may well have five changes from the side that beat them - Hunt, Hibberd, Jordon, Weideman and Melksham all played. Would be replaced, on yesterday's 22, by Bowey, Brown, Smith, Langdon and Viney.
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Most years people see upsets happening but most years the top 4 make the prelims.
Indeed, since 2000 I think only 7 sides have gone out in straight sets. That's 7 out of 80. Less than 10%.
So whilst Sydney and GWS and Essendon are all in good degrees of form, the odds suggest that the losers of Melb-Brisbane and Port-Geelong will make the prelims.
Whilst Sydney is in good form, they don't match up well against Port or Geelong, who they'll have to beat in the SF. I'll back the loser of Port-Geelong to make the prelim, therefore (and FWIW I smell a Geelong win this week).
On our side of the draw, I think we'll beat Brisbane, which means I think we'll play Port in the prelim.
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53 minutes ago, rpfc said:
It’s be funny to see what Gil would do if we played a home final against Essendon… what clash strip will they put them in? Maybe just skins…
They'll have to wear their red clash jumper, as they did in 2019 (our only home game against Essendon since 2010 and only our second since 2005:
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4 hours ago, Demonland said:
Do we lose our rank to Brisbane in the event that they beat us next week and then we end up playing them again in the Grand Final?
3 hours ago, Pink Freud said:Yep. In that case we do.
For this week though, I’m happy that we’re in our original gear and the Lions west their anemic light colored strip.
Depends on which season is the precedent.
I believe 2015 is the only time this has happened - West Coast finished 2nd, Hawthorn finished 3rd. They played each other in the first final (WC won) and then again in the Grand Final. In the Grand Final, Hawthorn wore its home jumper but white shorts. West Coast wore its then-away jumper (royal blue).
It's unknown territory I think. This tweet shows you that the AFL makes it up as they go along:
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33 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:
It was a bit weird.
Montagna was saying that we had the better of general play, aside from about 5 minutes of chaos where everything Geelong touched turned to gold. This was exactly what most people would say. King then was trying to say that Chris Scott is a tactical mastermind because they play keepings off and that their golden run was a result of that because Dangerfield and Selwood exist. It was hard to follow his point but he seemed to argue that Geelong was better tactically because they chipped the ball around. The fact that they kicked 4 goals in 3 quarters of footy wasn't important.
Montagna pushed back on that and King was flustered. Montagna eventually just moved on for the sake of the segment. It was weird and pretty hard to follow, but King certainly wasn't particularly full of praise.
Great summary.
King was trying to argue that Geelong walk away from that game pleased because our score from turnover was around their season average.
It was a really flimsy argument which made little sense in the context of the game.
I much preferred Montagna pulling up the footage suggesting we'd rolled our spare defender up into stoppages in the first half but reverted back in the second half. Hard to know if that was true given we only saw footage of two stoppages but if so, a really interesting insight into what we were thinking.
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3 hours ago, Skuit said:
One point. My memory fails - that first missed Max shot against Geelong in 2018, I vaguely recall that it wasn't technically after the siren? And can anyone recall how much time was left on the clock for the Tomlinson miss last year?
40 seconds left on the clock when Tomlinson took his shot last year.
Also you've missed Round 4 this year in your summary. We were pretty good that day.
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1443 points against is also, by a very long way, the fewest points we've conceded in a 22-game season.
The previous best was 2018, which was 1749.
Also, not including last year's shortened games, this is the first time we've gone through an entire H&A season without conceding 100 points since 1962.
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20 minutes ago, Mickey said:
God I hope it's not us. Terrible conditions, even with BBB in the team
It's not, it's the two Elimination Finals.
We're in Adelaide.
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We'd be required to wear the clash strip if we become the "away" side vs Port, Brisbane, GWS or Essendon.
But that can only happen vs Port in the prelim, if we lose to Brisbane and they beat Geelong.
We'll obviously be the "home" side in the QF, and the SF if we lose, and the PF if we win the QF.
If we make the GF, even if we lose the first final, I believe the rule is that we get to wear our home jumper because we were the higher ranked side.
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2 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:
As a pure defender, I'd rather Smith on Charlie Cameron than Hibberd.
It's not a terrible match-up. Smith did a number on Papley last year too.
I'm not convinced he's a better option than Hibberd but equally it's not like Hibberd's been setting the world on fire.
My principal concern with Smith is he still makes mistakes he shouldn't be making, largely through loose positioning, and which we've worked so hard to eradicate from our back-half. I just can't stomach the thought of him spoiling Lever or May in a final.
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8 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:
As cruel as it might seem Tmac has lost form at the wrong time of year. 7 goals in his last 8 games and his mobility is not what it was in the first half of the year. I would not be surprised to see us revert to the Brown and Jackson set up and bring in another runner in Jordon or Melksham for a defensive job (preferably on Rich). I love Sparrows effort but his kicking is a worry and would prefer Jordon regardless, if he is right to go. Smith stays in in my opinion.
Don't agree with this for a few reasons.
Firstly, I don't think we're good enough to win finals with just the Brown-Jackson combo. We tried the TMac-Jackson combo post-bye and it didn't work for us. We used it again vs West Coast (wet) and Adelaide (bottom.4 side). IMO we need two tall marking options alongside Jackson and Fritsch, not including them.
Secondly, I don't think your analysis of TMac's form is reasonable. We've seen plenty of players this year struggle in their first game back from injury. Prior to his injury he hit the scoreboard in each of his four most recent games but whilst he didn't kick bags of goals, the games we played included Hawthorn (entire side was off) and the Dogs (it was wet).
His best games have been big games against good opponents: 3 goals vs Port, 3 goals vs Brisbane, 3 goals vs the Dogs (the first time), 4 goals vs Sydney, 3 goals on ANZAC Eve.
I don't think there's much merit to the argument he should, or even might, be dropped. Not after one game.
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Smith had 6 disposals, 4 of which came from marks, along with 0 rebound 50s and 6 metres gained.
If he was in the side to play any sort of rebounding/offensive role, he failed to do it.
If, though, he was in the side to be a defender, that's fine, but my concern is balance-wise we don't need four mid/tall defenders playing a defensive role. We already have May, Lever and Petty. I don't think we also need Smith to be that sort of player. Leaves too much to too few. Either he is freed up to be more aggressive (in the Hunt/Hibberd mould), or we play Hibberd in his place.
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10 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:
Just to reiterate how insane this round has been for the Bulldogs, the difference between them finishing 1st and 5th in the last round:
1) 2 point loss after leading all game
2) McCarthy scraping through a behind against West Coast (ignore Cameron’s after siren goal for a moment)
3) Max Gawn kicking an after the siren goal (something he has missed before against same opposition) after his team was 44 points down
I cannot remember a better round for football ever.
An incredible round of football. Would have been the GOAT if Fremantle had won today and forced Essendon into a win-and-in situation, but not to be.
Although for the Dogs it was 3rd they were hoping for, not 1st. Had we lost and they won, Geelong would have finished 1st, we would have finished 2nd, and they would have finished 3rd.
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[Censored] Fremantle.
Ruining all the fun for the rest of us.
Now watch Essendon lose to Collingwood. A 10-12 finalist. I mean, 11-11 is bad enough.
Meanwhile Richmond finished 12th!
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5 hours ago, BDA said:
Geelong won't recover from that lose. absolute confidence crusher. I predict a straight sets exit
Doggies form has deserted them. I reckon they'll lose their elim final
GWS or Sydney to win through to a prelim with the Lions
No bye a huge advantage for us and Port. And Port with home advantage a great chance to make the GF. We'll win through as well
Port and Dees GF i reckon
I actually reckon Geelong will beat Port next week.
The Dogs are cooked and that's Port's most meaningful win for two months. I'm just not convinced that Port will bring it against top 4 quality in the heat of a final.
5 hours ago, Jaded said:Sydney worry me the most. They will challenge us the most with their contested footy. They have a lot of talent across the board. Very good ruckman. Excellent mids. Buddy. The coach I rate the most in the AFL (except Clarko).
They are the one side I really don’t want to meet in finals.There are only two ways we can face Sydney in the finals:
- We win our prelim and they win their EF vs GWS and then their SF vs Port/Geelong
- We lose our prelim, and meet them in the Grand Final
I'm relatively relieved that we can't cop them in the SF if we lose to Brisbane.
Having said that, we'll most likely cop Essendon if we lose to Brisbane. As I said, I think the Dogs are cooked and I reckon Essendon will beat them. I can't stand the fact that Essendon are even in the finals, let alone that by finishing 8th with a record no better than 11-11, they get the luck of playing the most out-of-form top 8 side.
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It's so incredibly petty, but I love watching the Geelong players' reaction to Gawn's mark.
Stanley tries to blame everyone else when he blatantly couldn't be arsed covering Gawn (or anyone else).
Hawkins pulls his "oh crap" face.
O'Connor asks his teammates the question. Rohan gets angry.
Someone (might have been Rohan) yells "f*cking man up!" at his own teammates.
So petty but so, so enjoyable.
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13 hours ago, A F said:
Agree with most of this but felt Trac struggled most of the night, as did May.
Gus played a great defensive game though IMO. I hope he gets internal accolades, which I'm sure he will.
I still think Smith has completely thrown out our defensive synergy. Geelong's first goal was caused because he clattered into a team mate. He does it too often. I worry that we've left it too late to be bringing in a guy that hasn't played enough footy next to our current back 6. Let's hope it doesn't cost us.
Trac and May had poor first halves but I thought both of them lifted in the second half, May in particular, who had looked at sea a number of times under high balls.
I agree re: Smith. He's much loved on here but I can't stand players going up when they shouldn't and whilst most of our list has fixed this part of their game over the last 3 years, Smith's first act last night was to spoil Petty and give Geelong a goal.
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Randomly just getting all the feels for Steven May.
He currently is third on the list of most games by current players who are yet to play in a final, with 168.
Next week he gets to come off that list.
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12 minutes ago, Wells 11 said:
Pretty level headed summary under the circumstances.
Tmac clearly hamperedRubbish. @Graeme Yeats' Mullet has helped but a number of his summaries are just unbelievably negative after arguably this club's greatest ever win.
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Had 10 pressure acts tonight, same as Hawkins, more than TMac (8) and Cameron (5) so stacked up reasonably well in the tall forward stakes.
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We had the top 3 players for pressure acts and 5 of the top 7:
- Viney 35
- Oliver 34
- Harmes 28
- Dangerfield 24
- Parfitt 24
- Petracca 24
- ANB 24
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Jake Lever Take A Bow
in Melbourne Demons
Jake Lever was too expensive ("two first rounders" etc.).
Steven May was too expensive ("we gave up Hogan/pick 6/Ben KIng for May" etc.).
Whatever happens from here, I hope (but do not expect at all) that Demonlanders learn from this the next time we trade out a high draft pick for an established player.