titan_uranus

Port's best football all year has been against bad sides. Only two wins over the top 8 - 2 points over Richmond and 10 over Sydney. In both they trailed in the fourth quarter and in neither did they dominate. (Edit: with Richmond out of the 8 they actually only have one win vs the top 8). All other games against the top 8 they've been pretty poor and haven't gotten within three goals, including home losses vs the Dogs and Geelong (their defence vs Geelong was embarrassingly bad). They are absolutely beatable if we bring anything near our best. But, if we're lax at stoppages and butcher the ball in our forward half, we'll lose. I'm of the view we lost the game last week more than GWS won it. This game tonight IMO will be dictated by us, not them.

Richmond lost to Fremantle at the MCG in 2017, before they'd achieved anything. They followed that up the next week with a loss to the same "soulless franchise" you're now complaining about.

Sorry, what else were you expecting? Of course he made the decision based off our form vs GWS! That's precisely how it's supposed to work!

Yep I think a Saturday twilight or night game against GC is a near-certainty, they play most of their home games in those slots. Friday night vs the Dogs the week after is a near-certainty I'd say: even if the AFL is still doing Thursday night games by then, the AFLPA has said they only want clubs to have one five-day break and we're having ours this week.

Guess that makes Richmond a bad team?

Round 18 Thursday, July 15 Fremantle v Geelong at Optus Stadium, 6.10pm AWST, Seven Friday, July 16 Richmond v Brisbane at MCG, 7.50pm AEST, Seven Saturday, July 17 GWS Giants v Sydney Swans at TBC, 1.45pm AEST, Fox Melbourne v Hawthorn MCG, 4.35pm AEST, Fox Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs at Metricon Stadium, 4.35pm AEST, Fox St Kilda v Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, 7.25pm AEST, Seven Sunday, July 18 North Melbourne v Essendon at Marvel Stadium, 1.10pm AEST, Fox Collingwood v Carlton at MCG, 3.20pm AEST, Seven Adelaide v West Coast at Adelaide Oval, 4.10pm ACST, Fox Why are there two games starting at 4.35pm?

Melksham, vandenBerg, Sparrow and J Smith the emergencies.

Carb loading?

I'm not sure there has ever been such a thing on Demonland. But, to answer your question, yes, it is possible that we could be back on track but still lose this game.

Yes, Petty is markedly better (and has done nothing wrong since coming into the side to warrant being dropped). No, Smith is not "great with lock down". He is Frost-level unpredictable which is the last thing we want or need in our backline. Unless he's significantly changed how he plays, Smith is the wrong answer to a question that isn't even being asked.

It sounds like someone's mail here is off? FWIW, if Joel Smith is on the plane...I'm not impressed.

The general point you're making is a valid one (i.e. our pressure has fallen back the last few games) but then it gets all hyperbolic. What has our reduced pressure got to do with the valid question to ask anyone right now (i.e. would you have been happy with 12-3 if you'd been offered it before the season)? In relation to whether it's being addressed, as you've pointed out we've already seen two casualties (Melksham and Weideman) but otherwise it's not surprising at all that we haven't seen masses of dropped players - it's only been three games, and one of them was before the bye. It's no surprise to me at all if the FD wanted to give players like Spargo, Pickett, ANB, Jordon and Sparrow at least two games post-bye to lift their intensity, the more so given we won the first one vs Essendon. It's also fair to note that despite the lower pressure rating, our last two opponents have struggled to score against us. Much more of the loss to GWS can be attributed to what we did with the ball, not what we did without the ball.

Prime time games played by Melbourne this year: Saturday night vs St Kilda - win ANZAC Eve vs Richmond - win Saturday night vs Sydney - win Friday night vs Bulldogs - win Friday night vs Brisbane - win Queen's Birthday vs Collingwood - loss Saturday night vs Essendon - win I don't think prime time TV has been a problem for us, with two of our three losses on Fox.

Spargo's 60% from snaps but only 44% from set shots. And the data does go back to 2018. But you're right, last year he kicked 8.1, with the only miss being a set shot.

Some news now coming out about our Round 18 clash vs Hawthorn: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/crowd-caps-set-to-increase-for-afl-games-in-victoria-20210706-p5875x.html This article says that: Fremantle v Geelong is likely to be on a Thursday night (if true, that will be five of their six games post-bye on a Thursday/Friday night and the following week they play Richmond so gear up for another one) Richmond v Brisbane is likely to be Friday night, but apparently our game vs Hawthorn is also being considered for that timeslot All clubs have agreed to one five-day break during the season I suspect they are considering our game for the Friday night because that round has three MCG games (Collingwood v Carlton is the third) and so one has to be on a Friday night, barring any double-headers. And with Richmond on Sunday this week it uses up their only agreeable five-day break, whereas we're on Thursday and Hawthorn's on Saturday. I reckon this means we'll be Saturday afternoon, with Collingwood v Carlton on Sunday afternoon.

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/973058/injury-report-jones-brown-and-laurie-to-miss-again Poor Bailey Laurie only just got back and is now out for an extended period with a shoulder injury. M Brown - heel - 2 weeks Laurie - shoulder - 4-5 weeks Jones - calf - TBC Hore - knee - 7-8 weeks Nietschke - knee - season Tomlinson - knee - season

True but look at the progression in those first five games: Round 2 (his first game) - 66% Round 3 - 73% Round 4 - 82% Round 5 - 79% Round 6 - 79% He's come back and started at 74% vs Essendon and now 77% vs Port, so based on prior trends I'd be expecting him to scale up and play around 80%, or hopefully a touch more, of the Port game.

According to the stats I can find on Stats Insider, that's not actually correct. Not even in our top 5. Stats Insider has data on all set shots from Round 1 2018 to Round 6 2021. I've gone through and here are all the players on our list who have a set shot accuracy of at least 50% (minimum 10 shots in the time period): Daw - 71% (14 set shots) TMac - 63% (104 shots) Jones - 63% (19 shots) B Brown - 61% (178 shots) M Brown - 60% (52 shots) ANB - 59% (32 shots) Hunt - 57% (35 shots) Weideman - 56% (55 shots) Petty - 55% (11 shots) Gawn - 52% (42 shots) Fritsch - 51% (92 shots) Melksham - 51% (65 shots) Tomlinson - 50% (18 shots) And then below 50%: Brayshaw - 48% (27 set shots) Spargo - 44% (18 shots) Petracca - 42% (60 shots) Harmes - 41% (29 shots) Langdon - 36% (28 shots) Viney - 36% (11 shots) Pickett - 36% (14 shots) Oliver - 24% (25 shots)

Dr D prior to the Essendon game - we'll lose to Essendon and beat GWS. Dr D after the GWS game - I'm always right.

Brisbane started the year 1-3. The Dogs just finished a 4-3 patch (i.e. one game different to what you're proposing). Geelong also had a 4-3 patch (one of the wins was the Brisbane game where the late missed free kick cost the Lions the win). Port Adelaide had a 3-3 patch, with one of the wins being over Collingwood by 1 point. Also I can't see a single poster on Demonland who has said "the flag is in the bag". Some, though, have said the chance of us winning a flag remains.

That's an odd way of measuring the TOG stat - looks like the total is percentages, so they add up the TOG percentage figure each week, meaning Lever has missed 9 percentage points of game time across 15 games. Anyway, it is an interesting point to note. Each week we have Lever, May, Gawn and Langdon doing big hours on the field, and then we have players like Sparrow and Jordon who regularly are in the 50s and 60s. Do we have a core group of players who are genuinely so fit as to be able to run games out with more TOG, which then lets us rotate the remaining players more? Or, are those other players unfit and unable to run out games and so we feel compelled to not bring the key defenders off, keep Langdon on a quiet wing for five minutes, and rest Gawn at FF, to keep bench spots free? Chicken and egg thing. Petracca, Oliver and Langdon three of only four names on that list who aren't talls (the fourth being Crisp). It's an anomaly, that's for sure.

In response to the OP: no, he isn't. I don't follow Casey as closely as others but hasn't he been playing ruck this year?

On the OP, it's funny - how many posters bemoan a lack of "mongrel", or complain when the players laugh after a game or look relaxed in the warm up, or play with emotion, but then simultaneously take issue with this?

We were 7-0 with the forward line we used on the weekend before the game. The question is whether there is a causal link between the two. Did those 7 previous wins happen because of our small forward line? I'm increasingly of the view that they were not all brought about by reason of us being small up forward: in other words, had we played Brown or Weideman in those games we still would have won some/all of them. Our ball use going inside 50 was poor but it's chicken-egg - how many times did we bomb it to the goalsquare because we had to stop and wait for TMac/Gawn/Fritsch/Jackson to get back, because they had had to run up the ground to make the play and there was no one else left inside 50 to move it more quickly? How many times did we kick it neatly but the target was ANB, Spargo or Pickett, because we were undersized? That isn't to say that Brown in = win, because as you say our stoppage work was terrible, but there is a completely valid argument that we need another marking forward. By the way, I'd argue our "best" wins were vs the Bulldogs and Brisbane - in both those games we went in with Weid alongside TMac. So I'd argue we've been at our best with two tall forwards (plus Fritsch and Jackson).

I'm not arguing that they're not a good side. I'm arguing that we can still beat them when we play them again. I've been saying for weeks that us dropping games to bottom 10 sides doesn't make us a pretender or incapable of making/winning finals, it jeopardises our shot at a flag because of ladder position. But the prediction we're going to finish 5th comes off the back of assumptions that we'll most/all of the Port, Bulldogs, West Coast and Geelong games. Our form this year suggests that is unlikely.