Everything posted by deanox
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COVID & AFL 2021
I think it does when they haven't been able to identify the source or infection point for some of the cases: if we stay open and the cases go from 4 per day to 20 per day quickly, we could be looking at months not weeks.
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Farewell Sam Weideman
Perfect, we're in agreement then? Premiership window is now, so trading Weid out for draft picks is useless, plus if something happens to one of the other forwards we need a mature 24 year old forward as depth ready to step in, rather than a raw 18 year old who will take 3 years at least to show anything?
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Farewell Sam Weideman
I didn't say they would fall off a cliff. I highlighted their age, which does make it possible they could fall off a cliff, or suffer injuries etc. They could all give us 3 years of dominate performances. OR they could struggle very soon. Hell, based on previous years TMac could fall off a cliff this Tuesday and never come back.
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Tom Sparrow MRP
I know he went passed the ball but I don't think he "bumped". He went passed the ball and sort of turned/propped to block or screen, with the flat of his back. In a contact sport, where physically blocking is allowed, I feel that this was the best option for Sparrow with respect to duty of care. He didn't tuck the shoulder down to bump.
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Farewell Sam Weideman
TMac turns 29 in September. Ben Brown turns 29 in November. Mitch Brown will be 31 in August. Add to that Max is 30 at the end of this year. Other than Sam we don't have any KPFs coming through. At nearly 24, he is about to hit his best years. And even if his best is not super star, we are going to need key forwarded on the list over the next 3 years. I think that unless we get massive offered massive overs for his value, and have a plan for accelerated development of other forward depth, it is pretty critical we keep Sam for the next few years. At worst as depth during what should be a successful period, and best because he will be needed to step up as others drop off.
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POSTGAME: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
My position on Spargo has been that he "adds value" to the ball. When he gets it he regularly leaves us in a better position that before he got it. I think 7 score involvements (only 1 during shot) from 14 disposals is evidence of this. He is creative, and scores flow from his possession of the ball. 2018 he was superb at this, 2019 he had a shocker. But he has been good since.
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VOTES: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
6 Petracca 5 Jordon 4 Oliver 3 May 2 Pickett 1 Harmes Apologies to Brayshaw, Spargo, McDonald, Petty and Rivers who were all in contention for 3 to 1.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
3rd quarter specialist?
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GAMEDAY: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
I actually thought it has been one of the more even commentary efforts I've heard this year.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
This is has been a really technical game, as Brisbane try to pick apart our structures by mixing the tempo (ie control the ball but strike quickly when available). They've also pressured our forward ball movement really well. Great to watch, I wish I could see the structures and zones instead of the zoom camera angle.
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Return Fixture 2021
Well of the top 8 we haven't played Brisbane, PA or WCE. And we haven't played the 9th place Bombers. And We play Cats (4th), Dogs (2nd) and GWS (10th) again. So 7 of 11 (63%) games against top 10 sides, which account for 52% of the teams (excluding us obviously). Slightly harder than average. But I did notice that we also only play sides below us, and no other team can say that.
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What they're saying down at Barkly Street
Lockdown has made us all crazy. I just want to go back to the football so I can scream "Vivalding the ball"!
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Why Oliver is More Dangerous Than You Think
He is our best player because his overall performance isnt reliant on those couple of key moments. He does it every week: he beats his man, and wins the ball and uses it well. However those key moments are what will make him a generational player. Weeks where he has 10 score involvements or 3 goals as well as his usual impact are absolute world beating, and put him close to best player in the comp.
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Gawn's forward postioning
I can't recall whether Fritsch was too, but we definitely had Weid, Brown, TMac lining up in the forward line with Gawn in the ruck. Often Weid went off and played the around the ground ruck role and Gawn played forward half. TOG% Gawn 93% McDonald and Fritsch 79% Brown 77% Weid 72% Those stats equal exactly 400% TOG, indicating that on average exactly 4/5 were on the ground. But there could have been times with 3 and 5 to balance.
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Why Oliver is More Dangerous Than You Think
I think his 1.2, 2 goal assists and 5 other score involvements meant he was super damaging this week. So good to see.
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VOTES: Rd 09 vs Carlton
I was going to say that both Rivers and Jordon have constantly been in my 7-12 bracket, but their best games have also correlated with strong games from others. I'm confident they'll both be recognised in the bnf, which rates each game from each player, so there aren't a finite set of scores.
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VOTES: Rd 09 vs Carlton
I gave my votes first; the stats are supporting this argument though.
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VOTES: Rd 09 vs Carlton
I understand where you're coming from but there is a clear correlation between high disposal players, and high contested possession winning players and high "clanger" players. His average clangers is high but not out of the ordinary. Also remember that while he had 11 clangers, 5 of the clangers were "free kicks against". His extreme value today was the fact he won the ball 16 times in close quarters, and he had 10 score involvements. His career clanger average isn't much different than Cripps, Fyfe, Dusty, Tim Kelly etc. Cleaning this up won't be what makes the difference in his career. It will be when he has the scoreboard impact he had today every week.
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VOTES: Rd 09 vs Carlton
23 touches (2nd most for melb) 16 contested possessions (most on ground) 14 kicks (only 9 handballs, so can't be that many wasted) 10 score involvements (most on ground) 6 clearances (2nd on ground) 10 tackles (2nd most on ground) 348 m gained (9th on ground) 2 goal assists (most on ground) 1 goal, 2 behinds 26 pressure acts (4th most on ground) 4 inside 50s (=6th on ground) He was at the coalface, and was probably the most damaging player on field. That Carlton had more inside 50s than us and we repelled them is why Lever was higher rated in my opinion.
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CHANGES: Rd 10 vs Adelaide
Yeah does LJ come in for Weid or Brown or Chandler?
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CHANGES: Rd 10 vs Adelaide
In a winning side, playing against a lower side, Chandler gets another week to find the pace of the game. Melk was sub, so needs to perform at Casey to push back in.
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VOTES: Rd 09 vs Carlton
6 Lever 5 Oliver 4 Salem 3 May 2 Langdon 1 TMac Apologies to Gawn (workhorse), Fritsch (cameo) and Rivers (saved the day on many occasions), as well as Kozzie (who threatened but broke even on the dangerous Saad).
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Centre Clearances - Considered Analysis Requested.
Wouldn't be because the AFL own 49% of champion data and Andrew Dillon (the AFLs chief legal counsel) and Simon Lethlan (former AFL GM of broadcasting, and Football Ops Manager, now St Kilda GM) were directors of CD would it? https://www.afr.com/technology/how-the-afl-could-crush-an-aussie-tech-success-story-20150904-gjewar
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Centre Clearances - Considered Analysis Requested.
Seriously good analysis. I really wish AFL stats were public!
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CHANGES: Rd 09 vs Carlton
Crazy how much the intention of the rule has changed yeah? That reads like you were not meant to run with the ball. You were allowed to run to find balance before disposing of it, but not run and carry unless you were constantly bouncing. Basically while running you had to be constantly either in the action of bouncing or the action of kicking/handballing.