Demonland

INS – K.Brown (AFL debut), Tomlinson, Tholstrup OUTS – Petracca (inj.), Billings, Laurie (omitted)

Something struck me as I sat on the couch watching the tragedy of North Melbourne’s attempt to beat Collingwood unfold on Sunday afternoon at the MCG. It was three quarter time, the scoreboard had the Pies on 12.7.79, a respectable 63.16% in terms of goal kicking ratio. Meanwhile, the Roos’ 18.2.110 was off the charts at 90.00% shooting accuracy. I was thinking at the same time of Melbourne’s final score only six days before, a woeful 6.15.51 or 28.57% against Collingwood’s 14.5.89 (73.68%). At that very moment I realised that there’s a law at play that will play a very significant role in the outcome of the Melbourne vs North Melbourne game this coming night — the law of averages. North Melbourne had been the hunter for a long time and against an injury-weakened Collingwood it was primed for a kill thanks to its amazing accuracy in kick for goal. This is what gave it an opportunity to record a famous victory against a premiership contender. But as it transpired, this wasn’t enough and when push came to shove, it lacked the resilience (and the luck) to withstand the final lunge to victory of the reigning premier. The problem for the Roos is that the law of averages says that it’s not likely that they will reproduce the high level of accuracy two weeks in a row, nor will the Demons repeat five posters and a shooting accuracy of under 30% in two games running. On that basis, my theory and I’m sticking to it, is that the Kangaroos will suffer a letdown this week. Melbourne has had a bad month or so since it overcame Geelong and went to a 6 - 2 win, loss ratio. Two of the defeats in the intervening period have seen key players go down with long lasting injuries that most teams can’t afford. Missing Jake Lever from defence and Christian Petracca from the midfield (on top of losing Angus Brayshaw before the season started) has imposed a heavy burden on the Demons. Absent the drive that these divisions generate, it’s not surprising that the forwards have suffered in recent times. The coaching panel faces its most difficult task in the era of success that generated a premiership only three years ago and, even against the bottom side, they can’t rely on the law of averages alone to get the job done to rise above the below average form of the last five rounds. I’m less worried about the defence than I am about the midfield in this week’s contest. Even before the Petracca rib/spleen injury fiasco there has been a major drop off in effectiveness of the Melbourne engine room in terms of clearance figures from stoppages and more importantly, in taking control with that vital first possession after the clearance. The bread and butter of the champion midfield had gone missing. The critics have been pointing to the lower output of the likes of the team’s hard workers like Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver and while that might be the case statistically, it’s now up to them and the new midfield structure to stand up. North has an emerging young midfield brigade that is on an upward tangent at the same time as Melbourne’s seemingly heads downhill. They meet at a critical time for the Demons and it will be on this hill that the game will be decided. The selection of who goes into the midfield mix of Pickett, Neal-Bullen, Rivers, Salem, Langdon, McVee or one of the youngsters like Tholstrup who according to the club’s website “comes into the club with an AFL-ready body”. Melbourne certainly needs AFL readiness to prove that it rise above recent disappointments and prove that it’s still a contender. A number of commentators have pointed to where Carlton, GWS and Sydney were at this time last year and where they finished. In each instance, those clubs adopted the mindset of the hunter and turned their seasons around in midstream. The Demons have been the hunted for three years when they occupied a place at the top of the table. Perhaps they’ve become too content with that role and it’s now time to start hunting. The week’s break has come at the right time to rest, take a deep breath and take on the challenge of the hunter. I’m tipping Melbourne to win by 20 points. THE GAME Melbourne v North Melbourne on Saturday 22 June 2024 at the MCG at 7.30pm HEAD TO HEAD Overall Melbourne 89 wins North Melbourne 82 wins 1 draw At the MCG Melbourne 56 wins North Melbourne 37 wins Last five times Melbourne 5 wins North Melbourne 0 wins The coaches Clarkson 0 wins Goodwin 2 wins THE LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated North Melbourne 10.11.71 at Blundstone Arena, Round 21, 2023 The Kangaroos responded to the shellacking handed out by the Demons who blitzed them earlier in the season. Early in the second term at Blundstone Arena North held a 33 point lead before Melbourne reined them in to turn the deficit around. It was the brilliance of their small men, notably Kozzie Pickett and Kade Chandler that inspired the comeback. THE TEAMS MELBOURNE B B. Howes, S. May, T. Rivers HB C. Salem, A. Tomlinson, J. McVee C A. Neal-Bullen, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF K. Chandler, H. Petty, J. Van Rooyen F K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, E. Langdon FOLL M. Gawn J. Viney, T. Sparrow I/C J. Bowey, T. McDonald, K. Tholstrup, D. Turner SUB K. Brown EMG B. Laurie, T. Fullarton, T. Woewodin IN K. Brown, K. Tholstrup, A. Tomlinson OUT J. Billings (omitted), B. Laurie (omitted), C. Petracca (ribs/spleen) NORTH MELBOURNE B A. Corr, C. Comben, T. Pink HB J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald C Z. Fisher, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF T. Powell, B. Teakle, E. Ford F P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J. Simpkin I/C W. Fisher, L. Shiels, C. Taylor, D. Tucker SUB D. Stephens EMG Z. Duursma, R. Hardeman, C. Harvey IN J. Simpkin, D. Stephens OUT K. Dawson (suspension), J. Stephenson (omitted) INJURY LIST: ROUND 15 Josh Schache — calf / available Marty Hore — calf / 1 - 2 weeks Jake Lever — knee / 1 - 2 weeks Jake Melksham — knee / 2 - 3 weeks Charlie Spargo — Achilles / TBC Christian Petracca — spleen / indefinite

They did things differently one hundred years ago. When long serving trainer Jim Mitchell retired after working at Melbourne since at least 1893, it was reported that: “Members and supporters in recognition of his long and valuable service presented him with a cheque for £50, and his fellow Trainers marked the occasion with the presentation of a Smokers' Outfit and a Cake-stand for Mrs. Mitchell”. Mitchell announced his retirement before the season started so he missed the club’s opening win for 1924, a shock 33 point victory over the Blues at Princes Park. Round 4 Carlton vs Melbourne Saturday 17 May 1924 Venue: Princes Park Attendance: 23,000 CARLTON 1.2.8 6.5.41 8.8.56 11.10.76 MELBOURNE 3.7.25 5.14.44 11.21.87 14.25.109 Goals Harry Harker 4 Derek Mollison 3 Harry Coy Stan Wittman 2 Wally Carter Bill Shelton Percy Tulloh The Redlegs dominated in the ruck and in the air with Stan Wittman, in his second game, putting in a dominating performance. But for their inaccuracy, it would have been a much bigger victory. They led by three points at half time off the back of five goals from 19 scoring chances and trailed early in the third term by nine points. A five goal burst broke the back of the Carlton side and the Blues were left lamenting as Melbourne finished with a score of over a hundred points for the first time in two years. Wittman, Dick Taylor and George Haines were best and Harry Harker kicked four goals. The following week, the football world really sat up and took notice of the 1923 wooden spooner when it moved into the top four after its 7 point win over South Melbourne. Round 5 Melbourne vs South Melbourne Saturday 24 May Venue: MCG Attendance: 22,072 MELBOURNE 3.5.23 5.9.39 8.12.60 10.16.76 SOUTH MELBOURNE 3.2.20 3.5.23 7.9.51 10.9.69 Goals Percy Tulloh 4 Harry Coy Edgar Dunbar Hugh Dunbar Harry Harker Derek Mollison Stan Wittman It was touch and go in the dying moments of the tight match with the Swans left to rue the fact that their star full forward missed all seven of his place kicks from scoring range. Melbourne’s best player on the day, Percy Tulloh, kicked the winning goal with eight minutes to go. He was well supported by Bert Chadwick who had been moved into the ruck to help defend the lead. Charles Lilley was also among the best. Round 6 Geelong vs Melbourne Saturday 31 May Venue: Corio Oval Attendance: 12,000 GEELONG 3.1.19 6.11.47 6.14.50 9.19.73 MELBOURNE 6.5.41 6.5.41 9.9.63 9.9.63 Goals Harry Harker 4 George Haines Derek Mollison 2 Hugh Dunbar 1 The Redlegs travelled down the highway to Geelong with some confidence about continuing their winning streak. After all, they had emerged victorious when they last visited Corio Oval. They won the toss and kicked six goals with the benefit of a strong north-westerly but gave away three to the home side, a factor that came back to haunt them when they failed to score both times they went against the wind. As a consequence, they were overhauled and lost by nine points. Best players were Dick Taylor, Derek Mollison and Harry Harker who booted four goals in his fiftieth game milestone. Harry Harker is a good example of the differences in the game through the vast gulf of time over the past century. When we talk of mature age recruits these days, we speak of 23 year olds or occasionally, those in the mid 20s. Players recruited beyond that age are as rare as hen’s teeth but when Harker made his debut in round 2 of the 1920 season against Essendon, he became the oldest player to ever debut for the Melbourne Football Club at the age of 32. That record stands today. The recruitment was worthwhile because in his first three seasons, in 1920, 1921 and 1922, Harker was Melbourne's leading goal kicker, with 23, 47 and 47 goals respectively. In his second season at the club, 1921, Harker put in his best performance for the club when he kicked ten goals out of 16 against Geelong. He was restricted to just six games (and 13 goals) in 1923. The Redlegs lost every one of those games. Season 1924 was to be the aging veteran’s last for Melbourne and it produced another 16 goals. A month and a half after his fiftieth game, Harry Harker played his last, against Collingwood at Victoria Park. He left the game at 36 years of age, "regret[ting] that he had not gone to the VFL in the first place". Seconds (Played at MCG) Geelong 8.19.67 d. Melbourne 8.9.57 Round 7 Melbourne vs Richmond Monday 9 June 1924 Venue: MCG Attendance: 27,533 MELBOURNE 4.6.30 6.10.46 9.11.65 11.17.83 RICHMOND 2.1.13 6.2.38 11.7.73 13.9.87 Goals George Haines Vern Moore 3 Bob CorbettHarry Harker Charlie Streeter Percy Tulloh Stan Wittman Melbourne suffered its third loss for the season by under a goal in a game that swung from end to end throughout. It dominated the first quarter, with captain Bert Chadwick defending strongly. Stan Wittman kicked the first goal of the game and the Reds dominated the opening half in every facet bar kicking straight for the goals. Inevitably, the club paid dearly for this failure to convert and lost by four points. The coaches made changes and Melbourne got within a point early in the quarter. It took the lead momentarily after scoring five behinds in a row, with a snap from Corbett went forward and snapped a goal but with the Tigers responded to scrape a narrow victory. Bert Chadwick, George Haines and Derek Mollison were best in what was the fifth consecutive match between the two sides decided by under a goal. Haines entered the game with a cold and suffered bruising to his legs early in the game but still managed to score three goals. The Demons were drifting aimlessly after seven rounds and worse was to come. Seconds Richmond 17.18.120 d. Melbourne 9.3.57 To be continued …

Who are tipping this week and what are the best results for the Demons?

Dee-cline: The midfield numbers behind staggering drop-off Melbourne's midfield numbers have gone from one of the best in the AFL last season to one of the worst. What's happened? Melbourne's Midfield Decline - Contest Differentials 2024 2023 Clearances 15th 5th Centre Bounce Clearances 15th 6th Midfield Contested Possessions 10th 1st Midfield Groundballs 14th 8th Midfield Pressure Rating 12th 7th Melbourne's Midfield Decline - Territory 2024 2023 Time in Forward Half Diff 14th 2nd Inside 50 Diff 15th 2nd Forward Half Intercepts 12th 1st Melbourne's Midfield - Player Ratings Rank Max Gawn 6th Christian Petracca 10th Jack Viney 35th Clayton Oliver 83rd Alex Neal-Bullen 87th Tom Sparrow 280th Caleb Windsor 281st Ed Langdon 287th

Before Collingwood’s massive comeback from the dead against North Melbourne, there was Melbourne’s win at Blundstone Arena late last year after trailing by 33 points. The turnaround in actual points was not dissimilar. MELBOURNE 1.3.9 8.4.52 14.7.91 15.13.103 NORTH MELBOURNE 5.5.35 8.8.56 9.9.63 10.11.71 THE TEAMS NORTH MELBOURNE B A. Corr B. McKay J. Archer HB J. Goater T. Thomas L. McDonald C E. Ford L. Davies-Uniacke B. Scott HF C. Taylor D. Tucker J. Stephenson F W. Phillips N. Larkey P. Curtis FOL T. Xerri, H. Sheezel, J. Simpkin I/C T. Goldstein R. Hansen Jr K. Turner J. Ziebell SUB C. Lazzaro EMG B. Cunnington T. Powell L.Young IN C. Lazzaro OUT L. Young (omitted) MELBOURNE B J. Bowey S. May T. Rivers HB C. Salem J. Lever J. McVee C A. Neal-Bullen J. Viney E. Langdon HF A. Brayshaw J. Melksham J. Jordon F K. Pickett J. van Rooyen K. Chandler FOLL M. Gawn C. Petracca L. Hunter I/C J. Harmes H. Petty J. Smith T. Sparrow SUB M. Hibberd EMG B. Grundy C. Spargo A. Tomlinson IN M. Hibberd T. Sparrow OUT A. Tomlinson (omitted) T. Woewodin (omitted)

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Who are you tipping this week and what are the best results for the Demons?

Some positivity for your Thursday