How many wins will see us play finals?

[pineapple dee 2,892]

On 5/7/2023 at 10:17 AM, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Good work.  Here on DL we hold ourselfs the highest of editorial and typesetting standards you know.

Since when??

 

[gregdemon 624]

On 5/6/2023 at 9:09 PM, leave it to deever said:

I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

I think it's a pretty tight season.

Keen to hear other opinions.

I have zero interest in top eight must be top four.    We can prob lose another 5 games and be top four    (one loss will be at gelong with their stuffed ground)..  

[leave it to deever 17,527]

3 hours ago, gregdemon said:

I have zero interest in top eight must be top four.    We can prob lose another 5 games and be top four    (one loss will be at gelong with their stuffed ground)..  

It's a tough gig going to Adelaide and playing Power which is coming up. Jvr will be out, Tmac is injured, Bbb is struggling for form after an injury and Petty just isn't really a forward. He may take a good defender but he doesn't kick goals. Even if Jvr gets off, he too is struggling lately which is understandable given its his first season. We have a problem with our forward line. We have some great crumbers but their success hinges a lot upon the pill coming to ground. Is Tomlinson or Joel Smith an option there? It looked really ineffective against the Suns. I really think Max needs to spend as much time up fwd as possible this year.

 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

23 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

For what they're worth, my simulations show the following, based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the AFL season.

Probability of Top 8

12 wins: 23%
12.5 wins: 44%
13 wins: 70%
13.5 wins: 88%
14 wins: 97%

Probability of Top 4

15 wins: 27%
15.5 wins: 50%
16 wins: 73%
16.5 wins: 90%
17 wins: 97%

 

Brilliant work Wheelo. Just a point of clarification. Are the simulation results showing the probabilities for Top 8/4 of any team with those number of wins or just the top team? e.g. is the probability of any team with 16 wins 73% to make Top 4 or is it a case of the 4th team having 16 wins and other teams with 16 wins and a lower percentage finishing out of the Top 4?

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

17 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

It's a tough gig going to Adelaide and playing Power which is coming up. Jvr will be out, Tmac is injured, Bbb is struggling for form after an injury and Petty just isn't really a forward. He may take a good defender but he doesn't kick goals. Even if Jvr gets off, he too is struggling lately which is understandable given its his first season. We have a problem with our forward line. We have some great crumbers but their success hinges a lot upon the pill coming to ground. Is Tomlinson or Joel Smith an option there? It looked really ineffective against the Suns. I really think Max needs to spend as much time up fwd as possible this year.

 

This game is 2 weeks away but I agree that it will be a challenge. I guess we'll know some time after 5 tonight about JVR. TMac isn't injured but unfortunately none of he, BBB, Tomlinson, Joel Smith will have a chance to push their claims for inclusion as Casey have a bye this weekend. In any case, from Goody's presser it sounds like Melbourne are committed to JVR & Petty up forward in the short term at least. One thing I will say is that imo Tomlinson is not an option. He plays in defence for Casey and has never shown he has anything to offer up forward.

[leave it to deever 17,527]

15 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

This game is 2 weeks away but I agree that it will be a challenge. I guess we'll know some time after 5 tonight about JVR. TMac isn't injured but unfortunately none of he, BBB, Tomlinson, Joel Smith will have a chance to push their claims for inclusion as Casey have a bye this weekend. In any case, from Goody's presser it sounds like Melbourne are committed to JVR & Petty up forward in the short term at least. One thing I will say is that imo Tomlinson is not an option. He plays in defence for Casey and has never shown he has anything to offer up forward.

Your not alone in saying that about Tommo but I wonder if he's played forward b4? Also he was in good form earlier this year. 

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

26 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Brilliant work Wheelo. Just a point of clarification. Are the simulation results showing the probabilities for Top 8/4 of any team with those number of wins or just the top team? e.g. is the probability of any team with 16 wins 73% to make Top 4 or is it a case of the 4th team having 16 wins and other teams with 16 wins and a lower percentage finishing out of the Top 4?

The probabilities are for any team with that number of wins making the Top 8/4. However, percentage definitely comes into that. Some of the 27% of teams missing the top 4 with 16 wins in the simulations would miss out on percentage only.

Teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 105 are about a 56% chance of top 4, whereas teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 140 are about an 86% chance of top 4.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

10 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

The probabilities are for any team with that number of wins making the Top 8/4. However, percentage definitely comes into that. Some of the 27% of teams missing the top 4 with 16 wins in the simulations would miss out on percentage only.

Teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 105 are about a 56% chance of top 4, whereas teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 140 are about an 86% chance of top 4.

Brilliant. Thanks for that clarification. I'd like to think given Melbourne's current percentage that even though 140% is unlikely we'll finish significantly above 105% regardless of how many wins we have. 

I see from your website you have Melbourne finishing 2nd with 16.4 wins, a percentage of 130.2, a 69.5% percentage of Top 4 and a 94.7% chance of Top 8. I can live with that after Round 8!

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

25 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Your not alone in saying that about Tommo but I wonder if he's played forward b4? Also he was in good form earlier this year. 

I'm not sure what you mean by being in good form? For Casey? I don't know how often he 's been tried up forward but he hasn't kicked a goal for Melbourne in 31 games. He was brought in as a wingman (that didn't work) and was a utility at GSW including playing 2nd ruck at some stage. Prior to joining Melbourne he kicked 35 goals in 140 games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Tomlinson

Maybe he's being proposed as a KPF because he's tall & solidly built (194cm, 95kg) and can take a mark. He turns 30 this year and surely we have better options than trying to turn him into a forward.

I know Harrison Petty has been written off as a forward already by some Demonlanders but there's scope and time for him (he's only 23). Whether Petty is better down back than up forward I guess will be revealed in the fullness of time.

I'd prefer Joel Smith to Tomlinson as a forward option personally.

[leave it to deever 17,527]

36 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I'm not sure what you mean by being in good form? For Casey? I don't know how often he 's been tried up forward but he hasn't kicked a goal for Melbourne in 31 games. He was brought in as a wingman (that didn't work) and was a utility at GSW including playing 2nd ruck at some stage. Prior to joining Melbourne he kicked 35 goals in 140 games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Tomlinson

Maybe he's being proposed as a KPF because he's tall & solidly built (194cm, 95kg) and can take a mark. He turns 30 this year and surely we have better options than trying to turn him into a forward.

I know Harrison Petty has been written off as a forward already by some Demonlanders but there's scope and time for him (he's only 23). Whether Petty is better down back than up forward I guess will be revealed in the fullness of time.

I'd prefer Joel Smith to Tomlinson as a forward option personally.

I meant he played well in the 2 Seniors games this year. But your big  assessment of him doesn't seem too flattering. As for options. It appears that we don't really have too many. We are putting it all on a 6 gamer's shoulders. So I think it's a worry. 

I was really happy to See HP play forward and probably one ofvthe few dlanders calling for it earlier. But I dont think it comes naturally to him. I dont think hes strong enough in the legs to take contested marks. His athleticism and speed may serve him well on a lead but we need a strong body in the congestion.  Yes its fair to give him time but I think that means we can agree its not really working at the moment and we are missing him down back as well.

I'm still hoping either Bbb or Tmac will return but I think the club has been short sighted with Tmac injuries and Bbbs dip in form last year and not recruiting another forward.  Maybe there were not too many around. We have a plethora of incredible goalsneaks in Chandler, Anb, Spargo and Kozzie and I want to see that ball if not marked, come to ground inside our 50 as much as possible.

Edited May 11, 2023 by leave it to deever