Jump to content

Featured Replies

On 5/7/2023 at 10:17 AM, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Good work.  Here on DL we hold ourselfs the highest of editorial and typesetting standards you know.

Since when??

 

 
On 5/6/2023 at 9:09 PM, leave it to deever said:

I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

I think it's a pretty tight season.

Keen to hear other opinions.

I have zero interest in top eight must be top four.    We can prob lose another 5 games and be top four    (one loss will be at gelong with their stuffed ground)..  

  • Author
3 hours ago, gregdemon said:

I have zero interest in top eight must be top four.    We can prob lose another 5 games and be top four    (one loss will be at gelong with their stuffed ground)..  

It's a tough gig going to Adelaide and playing Power which is coming up. Jvr will be out, Tmac is injured, Bbb is struggling for form after an injury and Petty just isn't really a forward. He may take a good defender but he doesn't kick goals. Even if Jvr gets off, he too is struggling lately which is understandable given its his first season. We have a problem with our forward line. We have some great crumbers but their success hinges a lot upon the pill coming to ground. Is Tomlinson or Joel Smith an option there? It looked really ineffective against the Suns. I really think Max needs to spend as much time up fwd as possible this year.

 

 
23 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

For what they're worth, my simulations show the following, based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the AFL season.

Probability of Top 8

12 wins: 23%
12.5 wins: 44%
13 wins: 70%
13.5 wins: 88%
14 wins: 97%

Probability of Top 4

15 wins: 27%
15.5 wins: 50%
16 wins: 73%
16.5 wins: 90%
17 wins: 97%

 

Brilliant work Wheelo. Just a point of clarification. Are the simulation results showing the probabilities for Top 8/4 of any team with those number of wins or just the top team? e.g. is the probability of any team with 16 wins 73% to make Top 4 or is it a case of the 4th team having 16 wins and other teams with 16 wins and a lower percentage finishing out of the Top 4?

17 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

It's a tough gig going to Adelaide and playing Power which is coming up. Jvr will be out, Tmac is injured, Bbb is struggling for form after an injury and Petty just isn't really a forward. He may take a good defender but he doesn't kick goals. Even if Jvr gets off, he too is struggling lately which is understandable given its his first season. We have a problem with our forward line. We have some great crumbers but their success hinges a lot upon the pill coming to ground. Is Tomlinson or Joel Smith an option there? It looked really ineffective against the Suns. I really think Max needs to spend as much time up fwd as possible this year.

 

This game is 2 weeks away but I agree that it will be a challenge. I guess we'll know some time after 5 tonight about JVR. TMac isn't injured but unfortunately none of he, BBB, Tomlinson, Joel Smith will have a chance to push their claims for inclusion as Casey have a bye this weekend. In any case, from Goody's presser it sounds like Melbourne are committed to JVR & Petty up forward in the short term at least. One thing I will say is that imo Tomlinson is not an option. He plays in defence for Casey and has never shown he has anything to offer up forward.


  • Author
15 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

This game is 2 weeks away but I agree that it will be a challenge. I guess we'll know some time after 5 tonight about JVR. TMac isn't injured but unfortunately none of he, BBB, Tomlinson, Joel Smith will have a chance to push their claims for inclusion as Casey have a bye this weekend. In any case, from Goody's presser it sounds like Melbourne are committed to JVR & Petty up forward in the short term at least. One thing I will say is that imo Tomlinson is not an option. He plays in defence for Casey and has never shown he has anything to offer up forward.

Your not alone in saying that about Tommo but I wonder if he's played forward b4? Also he was in good form earlier this year. 

26 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Brilliant work Wheelo. Just a point of clarification. Are the simulation results showing the probabilities for Top 8/4 of any team with those number of wins or just the top team? e.g. is the probability of any team with 16 wins 73% to make Top 4 or is it a case of the 4th team having 16 wins and other teams with 16 wins and a lower percentage finishing out of the Top 4?

The probabilities are for any team with that number of wins making the Top 8/4. However, percentage definitely comes into that. Some of the 27% of teams missing the top 4 with 16 wins in the simulations would miss out on percentage only.

Teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 105 are about a 56% chance of top 4, whereas teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 140 are about an 86% chance of top 4.

10 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

The probabilities are for any team with that number of wins making the Top 8/4. However, percentage definitely comes into that. Some of the 27% of teams missing the top 4 with 16 wins in the simulations would miss out on percentage only.

Teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 105 are about a 56% chance of top 4, whereas teams with 16 wins and a percentage of 140 are about an 86% chance of top 4.

Brilliant. Thanks for that clarification. I'd like to think given Melbourne's current percentage that even though 140% is unlikely we'll finish significantly above 105% regardless of how many wins we have. 

I see from your website you have Melbourne finishing 2nd with 16.4 wins, a percentage of 130.2, a 69.5% percentage of Top 4 and a 94.7% chance of Top 8. I can live with that after Round 8!

 
25 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Your not alone in saying that about Tommo but I wonder if he's played forward b4? Also he was in good form earlier this year. 

I'm not sure what you mean by being in good form? For Casey? I don't know how often he 's been tried up forward but he hasn't kicked a goal for Melbourne in 31 games. He was brought in as a wingman (that didn't work) and was a utility at GSW including playing 2nd ruck at some stage. Prior to joining Melbourne he kicked 35 goals in 140 games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Tomlinson

Maybe he's being proposed as a KPF because he's tall & solidly built (194cm, 95kg) and can take a mark. He turns 30 this year and surely we have better options than trying to turn him into a forward.

I know Harrison Petty has been written off as a forward already by some Demonlanders but there's scope and time for him (he's only 23). Whether Petty is better down back than up forward I guess will be revealed in the fullness of time.

I'd prefer Joel Smith to Tomlinson as a forward option personally.

  • Author
36 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I'm not sure what you mean by being in good form? For Casey? I don't know how often he 's been tried up forward but he hasn't kicked a goal for Melbourne in 31 games. He was brought in as a wingman (that didn't work) and was a utility at GSW including playing 2nd ruck at some stage. Prior to joining Melbourne he kicked 35 goals in 140 games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Tomlinson

Maybe he's being proposed as a KPF because he's tall & solidly built (194cm, 95kg) and can take a mark. He turns 30 this year and surely we have better options than trying to turn him into a forward.

I know Harrison Petty has been written off as a forward already by some Demonlanders but there's scope and time for him (he's only 23). Whether Petty is better down back than up forward I guess will be revealed in the fullness of time.

I'd prefer Joel Smith to Tomlinson as a forward option personally.

I meant he played well in the 2 Seniors games this year. But your big  assessment of him doesn't seem too flattering. As for options. It appears that we don't really have too many. We are putting it all on a 6 gamer's shoulders. So I think it's a worry. 

I was really happy to See HP play forward and probably one ofvthe few dlanders calling for it earlier. But I dont think it comes naturally to him. I dont think hes strong enough in the legs to take contested marks. His athleticism and speed may serve him well on a lead but we need a strong body in the congestion.  Yes its fair to give him time but I think that means we can agree its not really working at the moment and we are missing him down back as well.

I'm still hoping either Bbb or Tmac will return but I think the club has been short sighted with Tmac injuries and Bbbs dip in form last year and not recruiting another forward.  Maybe there were not too many around. We have a plethora of incredible goalsneaks in Chandler, Anb, Spargo and Kozzie and I want to see that ball if not marked, come to ground inside our 50 as much as possible.

Edited by leave it to deever


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • PREVIEW: Collingwood

    Having convincingly defeated last year’s premier and decisively outplayed the runner-up with 8.2 in the final quarter, nothing epitomized the Melbourne Football Club’s performance more than its 1.12 final half, particularly the eight consecutive behinds in the last term, against a struggling St Kilda team in the midst of a dismal losing streak. Just when stability and consistency were anticipated within the Demon ranks, they delivered a quintessential performance marked by instability and ill-conceived decisions, with the most striking aspect being their inaccuracy in kicking for goal, which suggested a lack of preparation (instead of sleeping in their hotel in Alice, were they having a night on the turps) rather than a well-rested team. Let’s face it - this kicking disease that makes them look like raw amateurs is becoming a millstone around the team’s neck.

    • 0 replies
  • CASEY: Sydney

    The Casey Demons were always expected to emerge victorious in their matchup against the lowly-ranked Sydney Swans at picturesque Tramway Oval, situated in the shadows of the SCG in Moore Park. They dominated the proceedings in the opening two and a half quarters of the game but had little to show for it. This was primarily due to their own sloppy errors in a low-standard game that produced a number of crowded mauls reminiscent of the rugby game popular in old Sydney Town. However, when the Swans tired, as teams often do when they turn games into ugly defensive contests, Casey lifted the standard of its own play and … it was off to the races. Not to nearby Randwick but to a different race with an objective of piling on goal after goal on the way to a mammoth victory. At the 25-minute mark of the third quarter, the Demons held a slender 14-point lead over the Swans, who are ahead on the ladder of only the previous week's opposition, the ailing Bullants. Forty minutes later, they had more than fully compensated for the sloppiness of their earlier play with a decisive 94-point victory, that culminated in a rousing finish which yielded thirteen unanswered goals. Kicks hit their targets, the ball found itself going through the middle and every player made a contribution.

    • 1 reply
  • REPORT: St. Kilda

    Hands up if you thought, like me, at half-time in yesterday’s game at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs that Melbourne’s disposal around the ground and, in particular, its kicking inaccuracy in front of the goals couldn’t get any worse. Well, it did. And what’s even more damning for the Melbourne Football Club is that the game against St Kilda and its resurgence from the bottomless pit of its miserable start to the season wasn’t just lost through poor conversion for goal but rather in the 15 minutes when the entire team went into a slumber and was mugged by the out-of-form Saints. Their six goals two behinds (one goal less than the Demons managed for the whole game) weaved a path of destruction from which they were unable to recover. Ross Lyon’s astute use of pressure to contain the situation once they had asserted their grip on the game, and Melbourne’s self-destructive wastefulness, assured that outcome. The old adage about the insanity of repeatedly doing something and expecting a different result, was out there. Two years ago, the score line in Melbourne’s loss to the Giants at this same ground was 5 goals 15 behinds - a ratio of one goal per four scoring shots - was perfectly replicated with yesterday’s 7 goals 21 behinds. 
    This has been going on for a while and opens up a number of questions. I’ll put forward a few that come to mind from this performance. The obvious first question is whether the club can find a suitable coach to instruct players on proper kicking techniques or is this a skill that can no longer be developed at this stage of the development of our playing group? Another concern is the team's ability to counter an opponent's dominance during a run on as exemplified by the Saints in the first quarter. Did the Demons underestimate their opponents, considering St Kilda's goals during this period were scored by relatively unknown forwards? Furthermore, given the modest attendance of 6,721 at TIO Traeger Park and the team's poor past performances at this venue, is it prudent to prioritize financial gain over potentially sacrificing valuable premiership points by relinquishing home ground advantage, notwithstanding the cultural significance of the team's connection to the Red Centre? 

    • 4 replies
  • PREGAME: Collingwood

    After a disappointing loss in Alice Springs the Demons return to the MCG to take on the Magpies in the annual King's Birthday Big Freeze for MND game. Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Like
    • 210 replies
  • PODCAST: St. Kilda

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 2nd June @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we have a chat with former Demon ruckman Jeff White about his YouTube channel First Use where he dissects ruck setups and contests. We'll then discuss the Dees disappointing loss to the Saints in Alice Springs.
    Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
    Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • Like
    • 47 replies
  • POSTGAME: St. Kilda

    After kicking the first goal of the match the Demons were always playing catch up against the Saints in Alice Spring and could never make the most of their inside 50 entries to wrestle back the lead.

      • Clap
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 330 replies