Thanks Dappa, yep, the idea was that I had been wrong; and agree, the first 15 minutes will tell us a lot.

The Pies are a footy machine with the likes of Swan and Thomas in obviously. Question is will the machine be as well oiled without these two key play makers as well as their No. 1 ruckman missing?

Looking across the lines i think we break even through the mid field or possibly a marginal win here.

If so, it then comes down to our forward line applying enough pressure to keep the ball inside our 50 often enough and long enough to counter the offensive dominance/muscle of the Pies and their ability to run through lines and deliver from their half back area. They love to spread and use the whole ground. It'll be interesting to see if we can cover this constant spread strategy tomorrow and apply enough pressure to force the stoppages/turnovers and go back the other way. We did it pretty well against the Dons. Pies are at a different level of course.

My main concern tomorrow, apart from the likes of Shaw, Didak, Dawes, Pendlebury and Cloak (as if that isn't enough of a headache) is what does Bailey and the FD do with Gawn and Watts?

Does Gawn play a role similar to last week as a back up to Martin, or do we play him down forward as a decoy but also to try and stretch the Pies defensively (height/match up wise) and TRY to unsettle them down back as much as possible. Gawn to me is a very big potential X factor here that just might be capable of taking the Pies out of their normal defensive game plan/comfort zone. I'm not saying he can or would be a match winner. Not at all. Just add that X factor....maybe. And yes i realise he played forward last week too. Just i'd like to see him open there if starting or at least start there when/if he comes off the bench rather than straight into the ruck.

I just hope we don't see him down back to start off the game in some kind of negative role to try and shut down one of their talls. Would be sending a very 'defensive' type message to the Pies i feel. I would see this as highly unlikely however given his role last week. If the FD has to do so as the game develops then so be it, he just has to play the role asked of him i guess.

In tomorrows game, i really wouldn't like to see Watts up forward much as i don't see him being able or capable (at this point in his development) of applying enough physical pressure to our opponents when we lose possession in this area. He seems to be growing in confidence week by week off half back at this point and I'd like to see that continue tomorrow, rather than asking for a 'break out' style of performance just for tomorrows game in order to 'show them pies' what he's made of etc.

I think it comes down to the opening 10 - 15 minutes tomorrow in terms of what the Demons bring to the table. It's gotta be a huge statement IMO in order to set the scene. I would use a subtle reminder that they shouldn't take being called a cheat lightly, from anyone. And i'm talking the down and dirty stuff....but with finish on the score board when we get the chance.

If everyone's committed to the same cause tomorrow, lead by Beamer/Jonesy/Sylvia/Martin through the middle (fingers crossed) then anythings possible. If Sylvia is not 100% then i'll be thinking twice about things. I think he's that much of a key for us tomorrow. As i believe he was last year against this mob. He'll need to bring his A game if he is completely fit.

We should be ripe. Time for the boys to make a statement that they've arrived and are no longer the whipping boys of the AFL with some no-nonsense, in your face, but classy finish football.

Subject to injury/luck, maintaining a solid structure down back, and applying/maintaining significant forward pressure, then the Demons for mine. 3 to 4 goals.

B)

Mighty Demons Forever!

  On 12/06/2011 at 11:20, Rusty Nails said:

Massive tactical post

Like a lot of it. The thing about last week is how the sides lined up though. We fare far better playing a standard (to use the soccer parlance) 6-6-6. We played a 7-6-5 against Carlton and it was positively awful.

But the thing is, Collingwood usually play a 7-6-5 with Maxwell as a loose man down back. The thing is whether we maintain our structures (a bad idea, as Maxwell is probably the best loose defender in the AFL) or put a tag on Maxwell down back and let the backline take care of itself.

Now, our backline should line up as...

Talls: JRiv, Frawley

Smalls: Nicholson, Strauss, Bennell

With players rotating through ofc. Where Collingwood kill sides in such a situation is quickly rushing Leigh Brown forward to create a 6v5. Brown being the tall target that he is creates a serious problem in this situation.

Gawn down forward though creates a similar dilemma for the Filth. What the hell do you put on a 208cm man mountain? If they put a 3rd or 4th-choice backman on him it means you simply put balls above him and the defender (who at that pick is usually a smaller player) and let him use his greater leap and reach to take grabs. If they put a bigger, better player on him then they risk having a Watts, a Jurrah etc run around them and do the damage.

  On 12/06/2011 at 12:50, Striker475 said:

Like a lot of it. The thing about last week is how the sides lined up though. We fare far better playing a standard (to use the soccer parlance) 6-6-6. We played a 7-6-5 against Carlton and it was positively awful.

But the thing is, Collingwood usually play a 7-6-5 with Maxwell as a loose man down back. The thing is whether we maintain our structures (a bad idea, as Maxwell is probably the best loose defender in the AFL) or put a tag on Maxwell down back and let the backline take care of itself.

Now, our backline should line up as...

Talls: JRiv, Frawley

Smalls: Nicholson, Strauss, Bennell

With players rotating through ofc. Where Collingwood kill sides in such a situation is quickly rushing Leigh Brown forward to create a 6v5. Brown being the tall target that he is creates a serious problem in this situation.

Gawn down forward though creates a similar dilemma for the Filth. What the hell do you put on a 208cm man mountain? If they put a 3rd or 4th-choice backman on him it means you simply put balls above him and the defender (who at that pick is usually a smaller player) and let him use his greater leap and reach to take grabs. If they put a bigger, better player on him then they risk having a Watts, a Jurrah etc run around them and do the damage.

Good point on Brown/Maxwell. If we're aware of it then the FD and players should be all over it. Hard to counter obviously. Will be interesting how it pans out tomorrow.

I just feel if we try and stretch them up forward with the Gawn factor early. Might mean they have to change up their regular game plan a little. Yes, with lots of wishful thinking, this could mean Maxwell not playing quite as loose and worrying him into playing a little deeper defensively in order to be the 3rd man up against Gawn etc, or maybe forcing Brown to man up on him for a period. Hard enough covering their 2 monsters down forward, let alone the 3rd random like Brown coming in.

If so, this should (one can only hope) mean less opportunity for Brown to make those forward runs/thrusts as often. Or alternatively maybe less opportunity for Maxwell to get as many free possessions, and when he is getting them he's trying to set up play from deeper in his defense (provided Gawn's playing out of the goal square), hopefully nullifying his freelance style of play in his usual 'half back loose man' role. Even if it only works for 30 - 40 minutes of the game. Every little bit helps.

There's so many factors that will need to go right for us tomorrow though. In particular, forward pressure inside our 50.

Really looking forward to it.

Carn the Demons!

  On 11/06/2011 at 12:30, rpfc said:

Here, here.

As for the OP, I really don't know how someone goes from not rating a bloke and then saying he played a good game, and then saying the game against the premiers rests on his shoulders.

Strange brain logic.

+1. It's precisely the kind of way too heavy expectation that says JW needs to rip it up against Collingwood that sees him pilloried for not being a superstar already! He is more than holding his spot now, and continues to improve almost weekly, yet he is expected I suspect by a lot here, to be best on ground against last year's premiers. Give the kid some breathing room FFS. He's good and getting better.

Uncontested marks need to be similar.

turnovers need to be similar

we need a disposal efficiency of around 70%

contested possesion similar

and we will give it a good shake.

hope we can use the ball efficiently and effectively, and move the thing quickly, the one thing i think we have over collingwood today is definitely speed, so we need to use it, break the lines, and tear the zone.