A STEPPING STONE

[Demonland 70,238]

A STEPPING STONE by JVM

It wasn't all that long ago in terms of football time that these teams met at the MCG and played out a forgettable game in Round 17 last year. The Kangaroos were riding high and looking like top four material while the Demons were dreaming of Jack Watts and the first selection in the national draft. The Roos opened the betting at $1.16, the game was ever so ho hum and the result was never in doubt.

On Sunday North Melbourne will still open as favourite but at $1.33 they won't be as firm as they were last winter because there are some question marks about where this much admired combination is heading. They say that you're only as good as your last game and if that's the case then there is cause for some concern in the Kangaroo camp. They were thrashed in their last two home and away games (in round 22 they missed a chance to take a top four spot when lowly Port Adelaide demolished them at the G) and were bundled out of the finals by an undermanned Sydney. They showed none of that good old Shinboner spirit that has made them famous over the years. In fact, they were dreadful.

Melbourne finished the season in much the same way last year but then again, that was how they started it and it was also how they played out most of the year, as they remained anchored to the bottom of the ladder for all 22 rounds.

The Demons are heading in the right direction with their youth policy and I would have given them half a chance to win this game but for the fact that they have a few a decent lit of key players on the sidelines, starting with experienced trio Russell Robertson, Paul Wheatley and Matthew Whelan, ruckman Mark Jamar, hard nut Daniel Bell and up and comers in Jack Grimes, Addam Maric and Austin Wonaeamirri. Their problems don't end there because they have left Colin Sylvia and Michael Newton out of the side in an apparent show of strength by the selectors who, in doing so, have indicated they are demanding discipline and consistent football from their charges.

The Kangaroos have virtually a full squad to select from and it's this that has swayed me to select them to win the game by a narrow margin in a game that is unlikely to attract any more attention than the last time these teams met. I doubt that it will attract the 86,972 that went to the MCG for the Carlton v Richmond game last night or that it will capture the public's imagination like tonight's grand final rematch but a better performance from the Demons could be a stepping stone for better things to come in the future.

North Melbourne by 8 points

THE GAME

Melbourne v North Melbourne at MCG – Sunday 29 March 2009 at 1:10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 83 wins North Melbourne 63 wins 1 draw

At the MCG Melbourne 54 wins North Melbourne 31 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 7 wins North Melbourne 7 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 wins Laidley 2 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 at 1pm

RADIO 774ABC SEN

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $3.15 North Melbourne to win $1.33

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Jared Rivers Matthew Warnock Clint Bartram

Half backs Colin Garland James Frawley Brad Green

Centreline Aaron Davey Brock McLean Brent Moloney

Half forwards Cameron Bruce Paul Johnson Cale Morton

Forwards Brad Miller Matthew Bate Ricky Petterd

Followers Jake Spencer James McDonald Simon Buckley

Interchange Jamie Bennell Kyle Cheney Neville Jetta Nathan Jones

Emergencies Lynden Dunn Stefan Martin John Meesen

New Jamie Bennell (Swan Districts) Kyle Cheney (Nth Ballarat, Warrack Eagles) Neville Jetta (Swan Districts) Jake Spencer (Redlands)

NORTH MELBOURNE

Backs Daniel Pratt Michael Firrito Scott McMahon

Half backs Leigh Harding Lachlan Hansen Josh Gibson

Centreline Brady Rawlings Adam Simpson Andrew Swallow

Half forwards Ed Lower Drew Petrie Lindsay Thomas

Forwards Matt Campbell David Hale Brent Harvey

Followers Hamish McIntosh Daniel Wells Jack Ziebell

Interchange Sam Power Josh Smith Scott Thompson Gavin Urquhart

Emergencies Liam Anthony Nathan Grima Daniel Harris

LAST TIME THEY MET

The Kangaroos opened on a high and took an early six goal lead before the Demons were even awakened from their slumber. Melbourne tried its darndest to blunt the speed and skills of Brent Harvey who cut a swathe through the packs despite close attention from Lynden Dunn who was reported for his troubles. Melbourne's defence had no answer for Lindsay Thomas and Corey Jones. Hale was the dominant big man and the final margin probably flattered the Dees whose forward line failed to function. In other words, it was typical 2008 but they somehow managed to keep the losing margin down to below 5 goals.

Round 17, 2008 at the MCG

Melbourne 1.3.9 3.4.22 6.8.44 10.10.70

North Melbourne 7.3.45 9.6.60 11.9.75 14.14.98

Goals

Melbourne Miller 3 Newton 2 Davey P Johnson Morton Sylvia Valenti

North Melbourne Thomas 5 Jones 4 Harvey 2 Campbell Hale Petrie

Best

Melbourne Buckley Jones Valenti Davey McDonald P. Johnson

North Melbourne Harvey Hale Jones Thomas Gibson Simpson Rawlings

FAN'S EYE VIEW

YZE_MAGIC: Well the season is almost here which means its time for Yze_Magic's first prediction of 2009. And the question is, can I keep up my 100% strike rate on game predictions, which I have been giving for years.

Without further ado..

It's hard to seeing the reborn Demons losing to a boring, uninspiring team in the Kangaroos. They have no decent players, no match winners, and their best player is that little squib Harvey who collects cheap possessions and falls to ground to milk free kicks even with the slightest contact. I would love to see him knocked out cold, and miss the season with a severe injury. Hate the little prick.

Melbourne by 14 goals

DEMON HEAD: Melbourne has an even squad of players going into Sunday' game against North Melbourne and that's exactly my problem. We don't have any players who stand out as star footballers in the team. The team and the players are still finding their way.

On the other hand North Melbourne have Brent Harvey(who is loved by the umpires), Drew Petrie, Daniel Wells and some handy tall timber in Hamish McIntosh and David Hale. The Dees can only win if they can hold that lot and, while we are improving defensively, I doubt we can do it.

North Melbourne by 14 points

BLISTERING: I like the strong stand Melbourne has taken with Colin Sylvia and to a lesser extent Michael Newton. The message given to the rest of the team is that from now on you have to shape up or ship out and that will surely serve to revitalise the Demon culture as the club brings its new breed of young stars of the future into the fold.

I've just been reading The Red Fox about Norm Smith's life and what his legacy means to the Melbourne Football Club. It's no co-incidence that this week the club introduces another redhead in defendar Kyle Cheney to its ranks or that Julia Gillard, the highest ranking redhead in this great nation of ours is the only Herald Sun tipster to select Melbourne to win this week. Not even the infamous Kiss of Death went for Melbourne so I reckon they're a good thing.

Melbourne by 7 points

ANOTHER VIEW FROM MELBFC BLOG

HOW THE COACH DEAN BAILEY SEES THE TEAM (from LIST ASSESSMENT: MELBOURNE)

BACKS

JARED RIVERS - Jared is more advanced and fitter than he was at the same time last year. Hopefully he’ll have had a bit of useful playing time in the NAB Cup games to get him up and running. He’s prepared well, and he really needs to play to get some confidence back.

MATTHEW WARNOCK- Matty’s a guy who just trains and trains and trains. His work ethic at training and pre-season has always been very good. He had a bit of a breakout season last year. He’s got stronger and quicker, and he’s raring to go. He’s got a great work ethic.

CLINT BARTRAM - Clint’s put on around three kilos in muscle, he’s maintained a very low skinfold, and his speed and endurance has really improved. We have a much stronger Clint Bartram this year, and we’re sure that this will translate into better on-field performances.

COLIN GARLAND - The challenge for Col is can he build on the pretty good year that he had last year? He can play on the talls and smalls, and we’re going to try and encourage him to attack and take the game on. He’s a good decision maker, and he’ll again be given the chance to play on some of the big stars, which he thrives on.

JAMES FRAWLEY - Chippa’ has put on at least three kilos of muscle, and he’s gained some confidence from that. He’s a kid who, after two or three pre-seasons, has developed really well. He’s quick, he’s agile, he’s a great bloke and really well liked around the club. Now, we’ve just got to get some game time into him.

BRAD GREEN - Brad’s a guy who just doesn’t miss pre-season. He’s always training. He had a thumb operation, but was still able to run, and do most of pre-season. He’s got an amazing capacity to train and play in discomfort or pain. His leadership and his mentoring of players has been fantastic.

MIDFIELD

JAKE SPENCER - Jake’s a young, developing ruckman. His work ethic and attitude are just fantastic. With some experience, can be really exciting for us.

JAMES MCDONALD - James is a guy who just continually looks at improvement in all areas of his game. He’s put on between two and three kilos, and his body shape’s changed remarkably, He brings a very, very good level of intelligence to the discussion, and he’s got a great football mind. He’ll make every post a winner.

SIMON BUCKLEY - I think Simon’s great strengths are his kicking and his speed, and I would like to see him exploit those this year. He’s an attacking player, so we expect Simon to be carrying the ball more and still taking players on. Physically, he’s much further advanced after a solid pre-season.

AARON DAVEY - Aaron’s been outstanding in the pre-season. I’d like to think he’s quicker, stronger, faster than he was last year, and that’s due to the fact that he’s been able to train more. His attitude has been first class. I would expect Aaron to have a great year.

BROCK MCLEAN - Brock gives you one hundred per cent one hundred per cent of the time, and that will be no different this year. He’s a terrific leader and has prepared himself incredibly well over this pre-season. He is a tough inside midfielder, and we expect him to be working really hard around the stoppages this year.

BRENT MOLONEY - Brent hasn’t missed a minute of the pre-season training. Brent will need to use his great strength around the stoppage and he will be called on to tackle, and chase, and put the defensive pressure on. He’s a very long kick, so we need him to be active for as long as he can.

FORWARDS

CAMERON BRUCE - Cameron prepares himself really well, he’s a professional in his attitude, and his pre-season has been fantastic. He’s a fantastic trainer, and a really good leader amongst the guys. He explains the game well to his teammates and the younger players at the club.

PAUL JOHNSON - Recovered well following the hip operation at the end of last year. He’s another player who’s put on three to four kilos, and his running and agility haven’t been affected. At 191 cm we really need him to be taking the contested marks in the forward line, and kicking more goals.

CALE MORTON - Cale’s come off a really good first year. We had to manage him carefully as a first-year player, but he was able to cope because he’s got such great endurance. I think other teams will certainly be a bit more aware of Cale, and probably place some taggers on him. He’s going to be really important for us in 2009.

BRAD MILLER - Brad’s pre-season has been first-class; he hasn’t missed any training. Last year, he showed he could take a contested mark and his goalkicking improved. I think he also showed some great leadership, grabbing hold of some games and kicking some important goals.

MATTHEW BATE - I’d like to see him kick a few more goals this year. I can see him playing as a lead-up forward, but I think there’s a nice opportunity for him to come out at full forward. He’s quick, and as part of rotating the forward line, he could play a number of positions up forward.

RICKY PETTERD - Last year, Ricky suffered a couple of injuries. He’s worked really hard in the gym and his pre-season has been good. He’s a very good drop off marker, and he reads the play very well. Hopefully we can see Ricky get some continuity in playing and training and I think we’ll have a pretty good player on our hands.

INTERCHANGE

JAMIE BENNELL - Jamie’s a player who can play anywhere on the ground. He can play down back, and be a really good decision maker from behind the ball. He can certainly come through the middle of the ground. There’s no doubt he’s also a very good contested mark for a smaller player. Again, he’s a bloke we need to develop.

KYLE CHENEY - Kyle’s a very good mark, and he likes the physicality of the game. There’s no doubt that he’ll have shown us some things during the NAB Cup. He’s competitive, and he can probably defend on the taller players. He’s a young kid who’s really improved over the pre-season.

NEVILLE JETTA - Neville’s quick and agile, and he’ll stand up for himself. He’s a tough inside midfielder, who I think can also go forward to crumb and kick a goal, and provide forward pressure. Again, like all the first year players, his body has to develop.

NATHAN JONES - Nathan always prepares himself well over pre-season, and he doesn’t miss any of training. This year, he’s physically stronger, and the weight training he’s done has certainly improved his core strength. Nathan’s got a really big tank and will run himself into the ground to try and win games for us.

EMERGENCIES

LYNDEN DUNN - ‘Dunny’ has put on about four or five kilos and has trained the house down. He’s been exceptional in his attitude and his preparation. He can play forward for us, and he had some good run-with roles last year. We also need to give him some more experience around the stoppages.

STEFAN MARTIN - Stef is very, very quick, but we’ve known his great test is going to come when he plays on guys who are the same size as him. At 198 cm, he can certainly play on the smaller players around the mid 180cm, because he has got that great agility.

JOHN MEESEN - John’s had a bit of an interrupted pre-season because of his ankle. One of the things we identified last year with him is that he needs to get a stronger upper body, and we need to develop a bit of power in him, and he’s worked pretty hard to do that.

[rumpole 511]

Great stuff fellas.

Different views - interesting.

[Hulett Packard III 166]

Great stuff fellas.

Different views - interesting.

Actually if you average out those four margins you would have Melbourne winning by a little over 17 points. I'll take that thank you!

[wisedog 350]

Nice write up.

Like the new 'Fan's Eye View' section too. Had to laugh at Yze's comment...

[pantaloons 2,019]

Yep, the Fan's Eye is a good addition. Well done, and very humorous.

I have to say, that North Melbourne's list does little for me. Perhaps its because I haven't watched as many non-Melbourne games in the last couple of years and therefore less AFL, but I don't understand how, if this is pretty much their best 22, they win games. They possess quite a dwarven forward line minus the key positions, and their backline is very average. The centreline is honest without being spectacular. Simpson's had a great career but is on the wrong side of it. Dean Laidley should be awarded Coach of the Year status if they make the finals this year.

That all said, we're fairly rancid ourselves and I'm picking North by a point. I do love our backline, and I'm happy to see the likes of Jetta and Bennell in there for some pace.

[Pinball Wizard 311]

Great to see that the two lads from Bunbury who have played footy together since they were 5 year olds will debut together in the AFL KICK IT TO ME, JAMIE BENNELL.

A great story.

[Freddy Fuschia 729]

Surprised to see the downfall of Daniel Harris at North. Laidley tried to trade him over the pre season and now he's left out of their 22.

He always does a good job against us and I'm happy to see him out of their team.