Earl Hood
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Posts posted by Earl Hood
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Still waiting for you to illustrate where I said that junior form is not taken into account or is dismissed - I NEVER DID
Just saying it shouldn't be the only thing that is considered. Of course junior form plays a large part but it is so different to what is required at AFL level you have to be able to try and identify if they can make the transition
Look at the players we drafted who were highly rated junior but haven't reached the levels expected. Hindsight is easy but at the time did they consider:
Cale Morton
Not big enough for Key Position, can he develop body to be inside mid? Does he have enough pace to play on the outside? Is he a competitor? Does he have appetite for contest? What is his role? – Suitable for bruise-free football played under Bailey but not much else
Addam Maric
Short, can he build endurance to play in the midfield, does he have the pace to play as a pressure forward? Is his attitude AFL standard?
Jack Watts
Key position height, can he build the body strength to play key position? Does he have the competitiveness to be the number one target and be niggled by defenders week in week out? is he a competitor?
and you mention Scully regardless of the fact that he left us, he does not play to the level of a number one draft pick, I wouldn't have him in the top 10 players from that draft. For a player who doesn't have the body to be a brute inside mid, I'd say a lack of kicking skills is a pretty big knock on him.
The trouble seems to be the recruiters don't seem to want to take a risk with the top picks by selecting anyone other than who is rated the best junior by general consensus as this would seem controversial. This is why I am in favour of trading early picks for more of a known quantity plus a slightly later first rounder, like the Tyson deal. Takes the pressure and attention of the top selection and allows you to make a more calculated selection.
Interesting to me is the three examples you picked all had issues above the shoulders. Watts has everything, height, skills, all except as someone said recently, the passion and will to reach his potential. Morton had ample ability but he had fragile confidence and there is evidence I believe that we didn't do him any favours as a club. He needed nurturing to build his confidence but didnt get it. In his first season he was great but it was downhill from there. Maric said himself that he wasn't mature enough for AFL demands. So much rides on temperament, confidence, aggression and a burning ambition to succeed. Can recruiters test for this? I would have thought so myself but you would have to do your homework.
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Good to hear Roosey's thoughts on the draft lottery and although we already knew talls are a bigger risk than mids in the first round I hadn't heard those reasons put up by PR about the TAC rules. Hopefully we keep pick 2 to get the best mid available and use the other Chip pick to trade
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He also said that was 1 of several ideas they have for the fixture, Doesn't mean its going to happen.
I liked the idea of a mid season trade period which could happen as soon as 2016.
It's what we needed this season with Mitch Clark retiring.
Didn't Gil say that the bottom six would be playing for draft positions or somthing similar and then realised his faux par? Not tanking surely? And as for the mid season draft, how will that work? One of the top six clubs decides they need to fill a gap down back so they draft Chip to fill a gap. So MFC is left one player short for the final games? How is it all going to work fairly I mean.
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Interesting article, no talk of player development in there, just the luck of the draft lottery. I dont agree with bringing in Shifter Sheehan, the top 20 draftees are generally sorted by all the "experts" before the draft and the the clubs tend to choose pretty closely to the agreed pre-draft order. That is largely what we have done with our first rounders, picked the kids on offer at the time with a few disastrous exceptions. It is still a lottery no matter how many kids you watch play
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What the uneducated majority don't seem to gather is that while we need to get quality young players in, we can't just throw out anyone over the age of 22. Eg what Bailey did, setting us back 6 years.
You need harden senior bodies around the young to help the mature at the right speed, hence why all our young players struggle to develop.
Also, many people are forgetting the fact Terlich came 3rd in the B&F last year
Not sure it was Bailey wanting to clean out the older players back then. Wasn't it the Connelly and Schwab blue print for success to draft as many young kids in as possible and sit back and wait for success to just happen, with the odd sponsor paid, free [censored] up in Shanghai to boot? Anyway it looks like a few of the young draftees from that period might be gonski at the end of the season.
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Who is this professor by the way. Mark Evans dressed up as Professor Ratbaggy?Mike Sheahan on the couch said he believed deal is done with Cats for 5 years at $500k per year or $2.5m total.
Garry hinted at same on FC a couple of weeks ago.
Looking like Cats.
That figure and duration and his age ensure a first round compo pick.
Evans will say 2 and 3 will take away need for a PP with Hogan back and young players improving, completely ignoring the AFL's own criteria and University Professor who was to assess need.
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I remember Port offered Melbourne two picks (possibly 7 and 9) for pick two (Trengove). Would be interesting to see if they worked out better.
Had a look at the 2009 draft, short answer is nup! A Shyte draft I am afraid. At least in the early picks. There was some talent later on.
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Games that could have been won? Isn't that 22 every season for every team? I give up, can't these over paid gits just read the words of their own rules and work to them?Gil said pp will be on Oct Commission mtg agenda (no mtg in Sept).
He said Evans will look at: a subjective view of the list; # games won; # games that could have been won. (No mention was made of past performance)
My immediate reaction was that there will be no PP. That could be Dee supporter pessimism but he didn't offer the hope that he did this time last year..
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The thing that I find strange is that it feels as though Melbourne have drafted better with their late picks. Therefore, I would have thought that a lack of funding would impact on these picks more as they are more speculative and require more research.
It would be interesting to compare prominent phantom drafts with real draft results and assess which have been more successful.
Yes I mentioned on another thread that it was extraordinary that for the GWS or Weagles game we had one post 2006 first round draftee playing in the starting 21 i.e. Watts. WE had only Jones, Chip and Dunn playing from pre 2006 first round draftees. The rest of the side was made up of recycled players from other clubs or late picks from 30 onward, Garland, McDonald, Jetta, Howe, etc,etc,
We make a good case for Roos "moneyball" syle drafting preference. Trade for expereinced players so you know what you are getting, use latter picks on project players etc.
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I get really angry at games where the club plays obviously bad.
vs Brisbane, I was livid. I had an older woman in front of me having a go at me because I was being "negative".
At the Hawthorn game, I was grounded: they gave a crack.
At the GWS game, I was infuriated: why was I there when the players didn't want to be?
I think some of our fans are just used to seeing this, and go to games casually as "fans".
But a majority of us are downright sick of it.
I used to get animated at the footy and angry but not these days. I am more like a stunned mullett, shaking my head at the skill errors and turnovers hoping for a sign of some talent and teamwork. Come to think of it I have been this way since sitting through 186 to the bitter end! It is probably some form of post traumatic stress disorder. For some reason I still go whenever I can; shock therapy perhaps?
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Saint supporter mate today told me that we didnt deserve a pp and that the saints did.
Lost my [censored]
It is just amazing how it is impossible to have a logical discussion on this issue. The Saints coach said oh how could the Dees get one while we are one below them. The other teams above us are reduced to talks about do we deserve it, its our fault we are shyte etc. The PP rule talks about poor performance over an extended period but let's not get to hung up on the wording or intent of the rule. It is really about whatever the top 10 or so AFL club presidents think is fir for them.
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15-20 have got to go....[/quot
And the mark and hold game plan as well?
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All our wins, and a couple of brave losses( eg Port in NT) all had the following key ingredients -
Ferocity at the ball
Great tackling and pressure
Intensity
We still butchered the pill and leaked goals from poor turnovers in each winning game, but those 3 things won us every game.
All 3 have gone missing in the past 5 or 6 weeks, maybe more! These are non negotiables for the great teams, not something you can switch on or off when you feel like it! Until we learn to bring this to every match we will never be a good team!
HB I think you have hit the nail on the head! Ferocity and intensity equals the old adage "Don't think, Just do!" If we could bring that to every game we would be so much more competitive. No we would not win a premiership, given our low level of talent but gee I reckon we would knock a lot of middling teams over. And there is no reason why we can't bring that ferocity to every game. Every time I have to watch the Hawks, that is all I see and somehow those guys don't get injured much, certainly less than our list.
So how do you bring intensity to every game? I have no idea with our list. We need another clean out on top of the seven years of previous clean outs.
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Very good point
Junior, let's also add that the Swans pick 18 is equivalent to a top 5 pick as they have first dibs on Heeney through their academy, I believe. The system is compromised all over the place but a PP to us would be unfair to other clubs?? Where is the AFL Commission in all this? it is their job to stay above all the lobbying by clubs and self interest and endorse decisions that are fair and follow their own rules.
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I find it highly hypocritical and very farting annoying that GWS even comment on getting a PP.
Its what they have built their side on. U r a bunch of farting dogs.
When you've been in the competition for more than 1 minute then start to voice your opinions.
GGF.
I found this article unbelievable. My Hypocrisy meter makes a lot of noise when it goes off and it is usually only set off by politicians like Joe Hockey but when it went into melt down this afternoon I was surprised to find the GWS CEO complaining about our early draft picks and that we did not deserve any compensation. Backed up by the Pies CEO Gary Pert. Both clubs have manipulated the draft at various times but are now concerned about draft purity while the various academies will be sending top picks to the Swans and Free Agency will deliver the proven players to fill gaps to the op teams. What else can we do for un equalisation?
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Steph always suffered from getting injured at the wrong time. When Nic Nat was first compiling his highlights reel with some unbelievable cameos in 2011 was it? Anyway I can remember saying Steph to some friends could match him in height, agility and ability given a chance. That was when He strung together six or so great games while Jamar was injured. Played well but Jamar came back and then he got injured. He is a number one ruck and that is all,like Jimmy was and that reflects their early history, that is didnt play early.Watched the replay of the Brisbane Collingwood game. Martin was running everywhere. Getting
into space back and forward and a constant presence around the action. No opponent could keep up with him. If his teamates looked for him more he may have ended up with well over 40 possessions aside from the numerous hit outs and spoils. Looked like superman.
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Who says he is coming back to footy by the way? Just asking.
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Hey Ascobar are you still hanging out in Addis Abbiba?I'm from Wang originally but based overseas at the moment. If you get something started maybe I can at least join in next time I'm in town!
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if worse comes to worse it is best to relocate to northern Queensland. I would be happy to spend my winters in Port Douglas when I am retired.
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In the National drafts from 2000 - 2009, there were "roughly" 14 'A' graders chosen from the top 5 picks in all of those drafts. 36 players were below that level of 'A' grade to varying degrees. Many of those top 5 picks were complete busts or near busts (especially when considering expectations)
So, in that 10 year sample size, we can ascertain that any given club would need roughly 7 top 5 picks in order to have a chance of landing at least 2 'A' graders - in theory.
However, it's entirely possible to miss out on those "elusive" 2 'A' graders with only 7 top 5 picks. The laws of probability isn't an exact science and you might need 21 picks in the top 5 to get at least 6 'A' graders. In this instance, the sample size needs to be larger than just 7 to get the desired results (in my opinion)
Coincidentally, at Melbourne, we've had 7 picks in the top 5 in the drafts from 2003 until 2012. So far, not one of our picks has turned out to be an 'A' grader and it's not looking good that any of those 7 will ever be an A grader. We traded our pick 2 last year and we also traded our pick 3 in 2012 in the Hogan deal. In essence, Hogan could be counted as the 8th top 5 pick in that 10 year period.
Bad luck or bad recruiting? People may say that it's impossible to get so many picks so wrong but it's not impossible. The odds aren't great that any given club will unearth an 'A' grader with a top 5 pick unless they have at least 3 chances at it.
There's also the "At the time" argument and the hindsight argument to consider. I don't believe I've ever seen a large majority of supporters criticize a top 5 selection - at the time. That criticism only ever seems to happen in hindsight. Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing
For what it's worth, here are my 14 'A' graders (I've been a little generous in some cases)
Roughhead
Hodge
Franklin
Judd
Ball
Cotchin
Boak
Murphy
Pendlebury
Deledio
Griffen
Cooney
Goddard
Riewoldt
n.b ... expectations diminish (somewhat) for an A grader past pick 5 - in my opinion. The top 5 "generally" pick themselves and nearly all the recruiters tend to agree on that.
The point of this thread ... there are certainly no guarantees with a top end draft pick.
Heaps of both I am afraid. When we were down the drafts were Shyte but that said we had shots at other drafts that we may have got right if we had the right blueprint for the type of player we needed. For what it is worth if you go for the best of the top 20 inside mids that have a dose of mongrel and demonstrated leadership skills for your first round picks you might just get lucky. But who knows.
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I've said this before but he could be the absolute star of this draft or just an ordinary footballer. Is he Fyfe or Murdoch (Geelong version) I trust our recruiters will know which one because it's up to us in the end.
Rjay you are trusting our recruiters to know! Big call. I hope you are right and they do for once in the last 7 years, the jury still out on last years trades by the way.
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I listened to "The Hack" last night on triple J and they had Christopher Pyne on. He is jumpy obnoxious fellow.
He ranted about Fairfax and the ABC and gave Tom Tilly a spray - Tom handled it quite well.
It did make me laugh - it was 5:59 and Pyne was about to launch into an answer and Tom said can you make it brief as we coming up to the news. Pyne got agitated and said typical ABC - i get asked a question and you wont let me a....
Before he could finish they went to the news. Tilly apologised after the news and said - we cant stop 6pm happening nor the news coming on. Pyne came off as a petulant DH.
You think he would know that Triple J listeners are not his demographic so he would keep his cool to win people over - not act like a 2 year old.
I don't think Chris Pyne has a demographic these days. The all died with the Empire before WWII
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Has anyone deciphered Caro's article in the Age where she states "worse for Melbourne is the fact that Frawley's past and future contracts could be structured in a manner that would earn the club relatively poor compensation". Frawley's past contract was front ended so that made him an unrestricted FA, again an AFL rule change to our disadvantage that came after we had signed off on his contract. But is Caro saying another club could structure his future contract to ensure our compo is minimised? Anyone know how that could be achieved? Of course in the dog eat dog AFL world if you could kick a club when they are down you would!!
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Only 5 top 20 draftees plus steak knives Barry. Yeah your right not much there. I think I will go and point Percy at the porcelainNot much talent there, no wonder they are struggling to win.....
Did I miss last weeks VFL Scorps player analysis?
A-Grade Jones
in Melbourne Demons
Posted
He needs to hit the scoreboard more often to really hurt opposition teams to be A grade I think, but the game plan makes this very difficult.