Macca

So it's Cleveland & the Cubs in the World Series ... obviously one team has to win but whichever team wins will break a long drought. In the case of the Cubs, the curse as well (although apparently Cleveland have their own curse also) Cleveland haven't won a world series since 1948 and the Cubs since 1908. Starts Wed 11am AEST Curse of the Billy Goat .

Take the win and move on ... the Bears not having a QB of note from early in the game made the winning of the game by the Packers imperative. Without a running back of note the Packers decided to use Rodgers for an abundance of short cut-out passes - worked well but I'm not surprised, the Pats have used Brady in this way for an age. Next up is @ the Falcons in week 8 - a shoot-out is on the cards. Tips ... Oakland Patriots Ravens

Good to see we've got some Film-Noir fans on this thread ... at various times it's my favourite genre. The classics like 'The Maltese Falcon' & 'Sunset Boulevard' are too copyright protected to be up on youtube but there are numerous other quality movies in the Film-Noir genre that are available. Here's an excellent one starring Humphrey Bogart, Ethel Barrymore & Kim Hunter - 'Deadline U.S.A' ... the movie can be viewed in HD (press settings) and can be converted to full-screen *Movie was unable to be played on the link provided - I'll re-post the movie up at a later date.

2 points up for grabs this week in the comp - same goes for all the odd numbered weeks for the rest of the season (except week 17 which carries 3 points) Good luck all! Points tally in the comp 1 - JV7, Gorgoroth, cowboy_from_hell, DeeSpencer 0 - The best of the rest

I've watched most of the snaps in our games and we're playing like an 8 & 8 team ... it's not just Rodgers, it's every facet and the coaching and play calling as well. Of course, things can swing very quickly in this league so I'm not writing the team off ... at times last season we played great but I haven't seen it at all this season apart from our first half against Detroit. Standards are high so one decent half doesn't cut it by any means. Schedule starts getting tough soon with a number of road games so we'll soon find out how good the team is.

Packers were very very average as well but Dallas are more than decent, all the same. Prescott out-dueled Rodgers quite easily too - the bloke can play. Green Bay lack purpose and vitality - we need a spark from somewhere. Some good finishes today ... important wins to Detroit, Seattle, Washington, KC, Buffalo, & the Giants. Texans win in O/T and the Jags got up for Clintosaurus but alas, no movement in the tipping comp. Incredibly (or not so incredibly), 1 point still leads the way. Next week looks like a good round for road winners but who would know cfh? Schedule week 7

One of Kent, Stretch, Salem, Hibberd, Garlett or Melksham. But obviously not permanently. Injuries always happen so instead of bringing in C or D grade depth players when injuries occur, the team would be bolstered with a decent player on occasions. A simple reshuffle of positions in your side accommodates Lewis easily. Lewis would automatically be in our top 3 players if he brought his current form (and that's what we would be buying) Bringing in an A grade player like Lewis who doesn't know the meaning of quit can only help the club. If we don't get him, c'est la vie.

But that thinking can and might change ... I don't ever believe anything is ever locked-in with trades until it is actually locked in. Faced with the prospect of losing Lewis for a negligible pick, they could easily up the ante and offer him a more palatable deal. Technically, he is their property and they've had the whole weekend to possibly talk him around (if they want to talk him around) There's probably a lot that we don't know about dc. What we're 'hearing' sounds terrific for us but a lot of it might be hearsay.

Ok 9 months Anyway, Lewis is a much better player than Jones in terms of match-winning capabilities, game-breaking style and many many other areas (including Lewis' immeasurable nasty side and leadership qualities) That's not to say that Jones isn't a good footballer or a decent leader - of course he is. It's just that Lewis is better. We've overpaid in the past and that influences the thinking here ... this time around, we'd be getting a bargain if we got Lewis for pick 48. And we won't be getting ripped off if we have to part with a 2nd rounder. Or a late 2nd round pick. It wouldn't surprise me if it ends up as a pick in the mid to late 30's.

Oh come on LH, you can't start using pick 48 in that sense. Pick 48 is not good compensation for a gun footballer with 3 elite years left. It just isn't. If you don't value him that highly then that largely explains our point of difference. If we do get him for pick 48 great ... I'm just not sure its a 'fait accompli.' If the deal falls through we'll be hearing the spin. The comparison is 8 months. By the way, some of the reports are that we've offered Lewis a 3 year deal on good coin without any conditions. My reading of that is that the club may feel we'll get more than 3 years out of him. You want quality, you have to pay for it.

LH ... you might accept pick 70 for Jones if the circumstances were the same but I would definitely want the club to play hard-ball and I reckon most of our supporters would too. The club is always bigger than any individual even if it was a loyal servant such as Nate Jones. In fact, if we couldn't get fair compensation for Jones I'd make him stay & play. When push comes to shove I want what is best for the club. I want Lewis cheap but it may not happen because the Hawks have to agree to selling him cheaply. The circumstances for that trade were vastly different ... it was a salary cap issue as far as I'm concerned. That's 3-4 times I've mentioned that now (in the last 3-4 pages of this thread) I see the Mitchell trade as a different and separate trade. It's actually 20 months so the difference would be 8 months if Jones wanted out at the end of next year. Champion elite A grade players tend to go a bit longer than B+ players so the 8 months difference would be cancelled out. I hope you're not going to start calling Jones an A grader because previously, you haven't.

Let's not forget that Lewis is contracted and is worth more to the Hawks if he is forced to see out his contract (disgruntled or not) Lewis playing for them vs pick 48 in exchange? Lewis is a pro's pro and he'd probably do the 'professional' thing and have another great year for them (if he stayed) ... the Hawks would then almost certainly spend all year trying to get the bloke to re-sign for a year or 2 (he's a free agent at the end of next year) I'm not sure we're going to be able to acquire him cheaply.

Given their relative abilities and the age of both players, the Hawks accepting pick 48 for Lewis would be like the MFC accepting pick 70 for Nathan Jones at the end of next season (if somehow the same sort of circumstances surrounded Jones) Would we be happy to sign up for that deal? I suspect we'd want our club to play hard-ball. I'm prepared to concede that the deal for Lewis (if it happens) will possibly be for a 3rd rounder but there's no way the HFC or it's supporters are going to be "happy" with pick 48 for such a good player.

Thanks ... you're too kind.

I will stick my neck out for a known A grade elite player to a point where I believe we can get 3 elite years out of him. I probably should have stated that from the get-go and believe me when I say he is one of my favourite players outside of any player at our club. My Hawk mates do not want to lose him. They love the bloke. He'll be an enormous boost to our club if we can get him and my hope is that we do get him. If we have to pay a bit overs, that's perfectly fine with me. We need more good/top players - we've got about 6-8 and our youngsters can advance of course. 12-14 top players delivers us a top 4 spot. Lewis becomes one more as part of that equation. I follow all the big 4 American sports and the history of drafting over there somewhat mirrors how it is here. Busts everywhere and super-elite players like Tom Brady get drafted at pick 199. NBA is the same - busts everywhere in the first round ... baseball and Ice Hockey draft players at a young age but the expectations are nowhere near the levels as it is in footy here.

I wish I could give you examples but even if I did, it wouldn't change my view on what I believe a draft pick is worth. A draft pick does not have a definite outcome especially in comparison to what an established A grade elite player can offer. If you don't believe that Lewis can give us 3 elite years then we're going to have to disagree on that. I believe he can. I brought up the Treloar/Mitchell trades as an aside to highlight how those trades seemed to be lopsided in comparison to each other. The biggest issue here is the value of draft picks ... and that is a huge factor in this discussion. Many have an unfailing belief in drafting so they see a 2nd round draft pick as a far more valuable commodity than I do. So my pick 25 is their pick 47. Pick 47 is a pick that may not return much in my eyes even though a pick at that number can turn up trumps. But not often enough so I don't like the percentage play. If I viewed pick 47 as being valuable then I wouldn't be arguing the point. I was comparing Treloar to Mitchell as a way of highlighting how similar players can get outcomes with regards to draft picks that are poles apart. Is Treloar that much better than Mitchell? 2 x pick 7 vs pick 14 alone. I don't regard the Sam Mitchell trade as having anything to do with this Lewis trade and I stated that earlier. I believe the Hawks offloaded Sam for salary cap reasons and Lewis has become collateral damage as a consequence. My value for Lewis would be at about pick 22 - 28 (which is a 2nd round pick) - whether the Hawks can get that remains to be seen. You disagree so lets agree to disagree. I rate Lewis as an elite player and if he stays injury free, I believe we can get 3 elite years out of him. That's my 'blue-sky' bit. By the way, you're more likely to be right because I believe the clubs overrate draft picks too. This is a very subjective discussion point where many people haven't been challenged before about their belief systems in drafting.

GWS drove a hard bargain with the Pies over Treloar ... in my opinion, they drove that hard bargain because they of all clubs, know about the vagaries of drafting. They've had numerous first round picks and many of those picks have not or are not bearing fruit. Not enough has been said about how a fledgling club like the Giants managed to eke out 2 pick 7's from an established club like Collingwood. That transaction is an outlier but did the Pies get dudded? In terms of what should happen, no, but in terms of what normally happens, yes, they did get dudded. In comparison, a similar player to Treloar in Tom Mitchell goes for pick 14 alone. Are there other factors that we don't know about?

It would be better for their culture if they managed to hold onto Lewis or at least played hard-ball on the trade. Most Hawk fans do not want to lose Lewis. Unless you think they do? Besides all that, another club might jump in with a better offer for the Hawks and that other club might offer Lewis an even better deal. Or it could be multiple clubs with the same idea. Readily available A grade footballers are in short supply. He is contracted for another year at Hawthorn and the Hawks might stand on principle - they're entitled to do that. The deal hasn't been done yet Abe.

Well that's not likely for any of us Why would you jump to the conclusion that my views are what they are as if I was the trade manager? You're jumping at shadows and you assume too much. If I was the trade manager, I'd have my demon hat on and drive a hard bargain. Rightly, I'm looking at the transaction as a neutral would. When it comes to all sport, I'm a pragmatist. So, therefore, I'm always going to look at things from both sides. Is that too difficult for you to understand?

See I see pick 47 as a highway to a probable bust. And that's how the Hawks may see it (and their fans) If I was doing the transaction I'd want him for pick 89 but I'm not doing the transaction. GNF is jumping at shadows in that regard. I'm looking at the transaction as a neutral might with zero emotion. We all view things differently ... most of all I like the nasty side of Lewis. His value to our club would be enormous. Pick 47 for Lewis would be an absolute steal. And if we got him for that pick and he played great footy for us for say, 3 years, many would look back and believe we got an absolute bargain. Would we not? Their fans won't want to give him away for chump change either - they've already copped that with Sam Mitchell. Do you know any Hawk fans? I know plenty and for them to lose him for pick 47 would be abhorrent in their eyes.

And you know this for sure? How? No riddles either - I'm not interested. Lewis is an elite footballer and many people view him that way. A 4th round draft pick is a freebee in my eyes so if we got Lewis for a 4th rounder, then we'd be getting him for nothing as far as I'm concerned. This argument is about the value of draft picks - you obviously rate draft picks higher than I ever would. Many only want to know about the good results from drafting and conveniently put aside all the bad results as if it's just the recruiters getting it wrong on a constant basis. Which is a nonsense. Hey, if it ends up as a 3rd round draft pick then I'll be wrong ... but the transaction may still be wrong.

From Hawthorn's point of view they will want more than a 3rd round draft pick regardless of whether we want to believe that they don't want him. They haven't actually said that they don't want Lewis. I'm of the belief that their plan might have been to offload one of Sam Mitchell or Lewis and keep the other - Lewis & Mitchell probably knew all that and now Lewis has got his nose out of joint. He's received a good offer and now he wants out. It's nearly always about the money with these sort of things. I suppose we could agree that it's either a 2nd rounder or a 3rd rounder. It might be a 2nd rounder and a swap of other picks. Don't get me wrong - if we get Lewis for a pick at around about pick 45 I'll be stoked. We all should be if that happens. Full disclosure - I really do rate Lewis very highly and always have.

If we get Lewis for a 3rd round pick or better I'll be very surprised ... but you never know. People are reading too much into the Sam Mitchell trade which is the outlier (or an aberration) Look at it another way ... if the Sam Mitchell trade had never happened, would we honestly believe that we could secure Lewis with anything less than at least a 2nd round pick? I understand that people are looking for a bargain but I'd rather keep things real. The Collingwood trade for Treloar (2 x pick 7's) was a fair one but for some reason that is an aberration too. The draft is massively overrated and the facts, data, truths and outcomes back up my assertion that the draft is overrated. It shouldn't even be a discussion point. I don't and won't value draft picks like many others often do ... doesn't make me wrong either. I'm also not interested in ditching the draft either - I just see it for what it is. Half of all first round draft picks are virtual busts and the stars are scattered throughout every draft ... the "numbering system" that most want to believe in is majorly flawed. Vince was an excellent result for us at pick 23. For proof, take a sample size of all the picks 21 through to 25 over a 10 year period. The results are not great and at best are "mixed" ... Go to this thread if you want to do the exercise. You're going to find a number of decent players in that pick range but you're also going to find any number of players who failed to make the grade. And the bad news cannot be ignored. I hate to spoil people's fun with the truth but the dreams that many have with draft choices often turn into nightmares. We, as Melbourne supporters should all be well aware of that ... McLean, Sylvia, Morton, Toumpas, Trengove, Cook, Gysberts, Grimes, Blease, Maric, Strauss, Tapscott, Molan. How much proof do people need? I would have thought by now that most people would have come to terms with drafting. And that includes the clubs. So a 2nd round draft pick for a player of Lewis' calibre is a good deal for us (in my opinion) It might even turn out to be a great deal.

A lot of the paying customers could be tourists initially but they'd probably get good support anyway ... I reckon it could work based on all sorts of factors. The City has a population of just over 600,000 but there were over 42 million people who visited the City just last year. That's a lot of cashed-up people. The road team fans could be a big factor too ... especially from Denver, KC & San Diego. The NFL would possibly schedule in a Steelers game there as well to kick things off. Mark Davis pledging 500 million says to me that the move is going to happen save for the red tape.

A 2nd round draft pick could probably get it done for Lewis ... in my opinion, that's a good/very good result for us considering the drafts are generally grossly overrated. A 3rd round draft pick (only) would be a gift. Forget the Sam Mitchell deal, there are completely different factors at play with that trade. That 2nd round draft pick that might be required for Lewis might also explain why the Hibberd deal hasn't happened yet. Lewis is a genuine A grade player who may not end up being as consistently good but will still play a number of stellar games (if he remains fit) We paid pick 23 for Vince and Lewis is a better player if we were to look at both their career's side by side. A 2nd round draft pick can offer all sorts of outcomes - often average or worse if the data, facts and truths about draft picks in that area are looked at properly (by the way, pick 14 for Tom Mitchell is an absolute steal for Hawthorn) In terms of bargaining power, it helps enormously that Lewis wants to come to our club and it also helps that we can offer him more security (a 3 year deal on good coin)