Macca

10 days to go! That came up quick ... tipping comp again? I'll post up some more details later but same format .. 3 road winners gains points

Best Bet Strike Rate 5: 2-1-0 Australian Group Races 2020/21 And the Group 1 replays from the weekend

Long term I'm reasonably confident that Kozzie & LJ will provide some answers but we still need a KPF and a good defensive forward if we're going to challenge. Weideman is developing ok and I haven't given up on T-Mac just yet. Brown is back up. Fritsch & Melksham can both be much better but it is up to both of them to get the best out of themselves. Playing forward these days means playing in crowded situations a lot of the time. So it isn't easy but we need to find the right mix. Meanwhile, the make up of the midfield and backline are more than adequate. Not perfect but both areas aren't of great concern.

Robbie Flower would carry the team regularly. Same deal for Hardeman, Wells & Alves. Back in the day. But we still couldn't beat the good teams even with those 4 performing as well as they did. And all 4 did so most weeks (perform) But up to 5 or 6 other teams often had up to 12-15 bona-fide top players back then. These days it's very difficult to build a list containing 15 top players. But that still has to remain the aim even though it's hard to attain. I reckon we're sitting at about 7 or 8 top players right now. Need more.

Kozzie isn't really the issue either although he is part of the forward line group. Same goes for LJ. They are both very young with a lot to learn. But the others have been around for long enough. Can they learn? Maybe. Could be that they are what they are RN. The off-season might provide the answers if our recruiting team are 100% switched on. We have got to be aiming at having an A grade or B+ forward line. Right now it's barely a C. But that can change quickly up to B or even B+ with some astute recruiting. A gun key forward along with a proper defensive forward who can kick goals (Viney?) as well as 2 decent high half forwards are needed. Fritsch & Melksham can provide the latter 2 spots if they both play to their best. It would be hoped that Kozzie fills the role of the dangerous small forward with LJ as the genuine X factor. So all hope isn't lost ... we just need to get a lot better up forward. The team is a work in progress but so is the team within the team (the forward line)

I'm not advocating that every one of our forwards pushes up so that as a consequence there is no one to kick to. Petracca in 2019 played that high half forward position very well but ... the players further afield were ineffectual. So we wasted him. If players like Spargo or Hannan were to work their butts off to gather 20+ possessions (like Petracca often did in 2019) then we'd be better off. But they don't and it's probably because they are incapable of doing so. Check out the way Richmond go about it ... their forwards often roam far and wide (when they are on song) and they work really hard for each other. And their defensive pressure is immense. That's the template AF.

The players in the forward line can win the ball outside the 50 metre arc. That was my point. It's not all about inside 50 entries. Again, our forwards don't work hard enough. 'Chasing kicks' is a prerequisite of a forward these days. Previously that term was sometimes frowned upon or looked upon as a selfish pursuit.

Congrats RF My maths tells me that dividend was quite decent. I do a few one-out doubles with the odd success. Got a couple of collects yesterday with Mugatoo as the conduit. Added 125% to the dividend. But the shorties can get done as we know. Rubisaki being a good example. For the first time in its career, it didn't get into the finish yesterday. But that's the beauty of our best bets ... some you might use one-out and others could be used in a small or large multi.

Fine line between winning & losing sometimes. Especially the reaction and consequences. So we got over the line but we had a number of non contributors. As a collective our forwards are lazy and they don't adhere to the fundamentals. Without the magic of Petracca we would have lost. But he's a midfielder who pushes forward. Against the best sides it can be a lot more difficult for a player like Petracca to kick 4 goals So we need our forwards to stand up. Hannan, Pickett & Spargo just didn't do enough. Brown & Weideman weren't physical enough and Melksham doesn't get to enough contests. Jones had some time forward as well but was often inneffective. Overall the defensive pressure from our forwards (as a collective) was sub par. The ball exits our forward line too easily. It would help if our forwards played in front but again, quite often they are caught playing from behind. They can all push up and gather possessions further afield and then work together as a team within a team and fight hard to retain possession but they don't. As for our opponents last night, they have regressed. I'd expect GWS & Essendon to provide tougher opposition. In fact, none of our remaining 4 games are gimme's Of course, it's always nice to win but we need to play better from an overall perspective. We are definitely a team that can play finals but because of our weaknesses we are not a top 4 team.

If you want your team to win a flag or 2 it's better to have a dynasty type list. Improves the odds immeasurably. Or a team can bob up and win one out of the blue but what are the odds? From what I've read Smith had a great list of players for more than a decade. And I've seen clubs have a great list of players for a 5 year period (or more) and still not win a flag .... Pies from '64 to '73. Cats from '88 to '95. Pies from '77 to '81. Even the Saints from '08 to '11. Under Northey we were very good but not great and under Daniher we were quite good but certainly not great. Our list is far from great right now and we are not a true contender yet. Need another 6 top players to have a real chance. Our forward line is still quite suspect and our disposal levels and decision making is far from first rate. Our list is decent but not great. Nice to win last night but the Saints aren't a top side. They may not even make the finals. Yes Richmond stayed the course with Hardwick but they improved the areas around Hardwick (notably Balme & Caracella) And they were a finals type side before becoming a team that can win big. On the other hand we've played 1 finals series in 13 seasons. And we can stay the course with Goodwin and take a similar route. But Goodwin won't win a flag with us unless the list is top quality. We are a work in progress

Good work Gorg I had a bit on for the win as well as in a multi or 2 ?

The Tour de France starts tomorrow night with limited attendance at the event being somehow enforced ... it will be interesting to see it all unfolds nonetheless. Just catching up with the news but we won't see Chris Froome as he will be contesting the Vuelta (Oct 20 - Nov 8 ) Geraint Thomas will be contesting the Giro (Oct 3 - Oct 25) and will also not contest le tour. 8 mountain stages including one on day 2 (Sunday) ... Egan Bernal & Primoz Roglic are joint favourites to take out the event although Thibaut Pinot & Tom Dumoulin could easily be big players. Quintana will be thereabouts whilst Richie Porte is listed at 100-1 to take out the prize. Anyway, the best late night TV is back with us and I'm eagerly looking forward to it.

I follow a few tipsters as lets face it, they are going to know a lot more than I will ever know! Notably Gator (David Gately) in Melbourne and James Jordan in Adelaide but Paul Joice up in Sydney is also quite good. More so at plucking out a real roughie. So here's his roughie for Saturday. Rosehill Race 4 No.9 Merlinite $41 (Win) $6 (Place) Glen Boss is on board. Make of that what you will.

Yep, it's not just the Colts that are retired early these days but as always, the new breed take centre stage to replace those retirements. Another star we'll never see again is Yes Yes Yes. That performance in the Everest last year was breathtaking (I only wish I'd backed it!) The cups will be different with way more local representation. A reminder of how things once were Wadda. We might even see a lightweight Aussie horse get into the Melbourne Cup field a la the way Bart used to get his runners in. I do miss those days when that scenario would happen regularly.

Best Bet (Saturday) Rosehill Race 8 No.3 Mugatoo (Win) $2.30

Biffen & JV7 grace us with their presence from time to time as well, Wadda. When I saw Rubisaki listed in the last race I just knew it would be your best bet! An ADATR favourite along with Osborne Bulls and a few others. Gator likes Arcadia Queen in the Memsie Stakes and I'm on at $8.50 ... but it's not my best bet. Need some more think time but I've got a couple in mind.

8 Stakes races out of Melbourne & Sydney on Saturday but the main interest will focus on the Memsie Stakes at Group 1 level (Caulfield) An excellent field has been assembled and as a result, it's a good betting race. Rosehill Form, Tips & Odds (Stakes events are races 5, 7 & 8 ) Caulfield Form, Tips & Odds (Stakes events are races 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10 ) Memsie Stakes Race 9 1400m Group 1 WFA $750k

Group 1's from the weekend (Part 2)

Some Group 1 replays from the weekend and late last week (Part 1)

Yep Our best is shown when we get the game played on our terms. So we need to do most things right and hope the Saints are not at their absolute best. Ratten is a good coach though so they will be well prepared. The win can happen of course but when we've been up against the testing material this season we've fallen short. But you never know, losing the way we did yesterday will sting so the group (coaches included) will at least know what we need to do. As LH mentioned, we need to be ready and totally switched on.

I'm not sure we can match St Kida if they bring their best unless ... we win the tap outs, win possession from the taps to advantage, win the clearances in 50/50 situations and then use the ball well when we have possession. Across half back and the back half of the midfield we also need to win the ball back as often as possible ... and again, use the ball well when we get hold of it. And the forward line needs to fire ... 2 marking targets would help enormously but Weideman can't be totally relied on as a prominent key whilst T-Mac is out of form. We'll need a number of things to go our way to win the game.

Too true RF ... welcome to the thread by the way. The more the merrier I say. I bet all around Oz on a Saturday arvo so the Valley being called off wasn't that annoying. How good was Verry Elleegant yesterday? A crack field and she did a lot of work and then fought back and won after being headed. Gutsy win. I was on Master of Wine (with a bit of an interest bet) but the horse needed the run.

Nice pick DZ Only audio today but the 4yo lightly raced mare looked quite impressive by the sounds of it. Won with a leg in the air! Bit better than Highway class you'd reckon. And the ADATR crew were heading for a near certain double if Jungle Edge had have had a chance to run. But I got the win & exacta from your choice so can't complain.

And if the rain arrives as expected the 10yo mudlark's odds may get quite skinny. Drawn wide and there is plenty of early pace but even 2 or 3 wide on the pace over 1000m will suit the horse if we reach a Soft7 or worse. Got one for us Gorg?

Best Bet (Saturday) Moonee Valley R8 No.1 Jungle Edge (Win) $4.60