Macca

Bob Peters not happy! Apparently the horse has a different gait to the last time it was inspected (a year ago) Stewards can be over officious but what they say goes. You'd be filthy if you had a share in the horse If it pours down then Sir Dragonet comes right into it ... supposed to rain from 10.00am until 2.00pm. Paying $15 right now for the speculators!

Ha ha! I've got a 10-12 hour work day ahead of me so will be doing audio only But I'm a huge fan of sport on the radio ... especially the horses, footy, test cricket & the NFL. Replays of the racing of course ... I watch a lot of replays!! haha As for the ASM, Probabeel is the horse in top form and will be hard to beat but there's plenty of value runners for the exotics

Out to 4.60 now is AQ but Bob Peters was quoted as not being too concerned about the mares fitness Bob is probably pulling a few strings as we speak ... fairly influential figure is Bob! Trainer (Grant Williams) reckons the horse could have passed the Vet check this morning but the vets wanted to be absolutely sure All the same, I'll be putting my trifecta on as late as possible!

I'm taking out an exotic in the race (probably a trifecta) ... can't help but think that Behemoth will get into the finish but can he beat home the Queen, Russian or Probabeel Shout the Bar has drawn a good barrier considering it will assume the front position (Gai's horses usually follow that pattern) And the on pace runners can kick away in that short straight There's a few other chances too but the top 3 in the betting will be hard to displace

Best Bet (Saturday) Moonee Valley R4 No.7 Pandemic $4.00 (Win)

There's plenty more Group racing at the Valley & at Rosehill this Saturday with the All Star Mile & the Coolmore Classic dominating proceedings. Good luck punters! Moonee Valley - Fields, Form & Odds Rosehill - Fields, Form & Odds

Replays of the Group 1 racing from Saturday

That's if he can get on the park in a productive way. Brown has to get over his knee issue as well as returning to his best form. 2 areas I would rather rely on our proven best players to produce the goods Trouble is none of those best players are forwards ... we'll be good enough to win at least 9 or 10 games but without a productive forward line wins will be scarce after that. In 2018 when we bobbed up and played finals we had 4 productive forwards (Hogan, T-Mac, Weideman and Spargo) We'll need something similar to happen this season in order to contend

If Fritsch starts kicking straight on a consistent basis he can be called a good player. He needs to practice overtime to get better Mind you, he's our best forward but that's not saying much. Our forward line is a shambles and has been for over a decade I'm hoping there is dramatic improvement in our forward line and that needs to happen if we're to win 14+ games

None of our good players are forwards but we may have 10-12 good players on the list Gawn, Petracca, Viney, Oliver, May, Lever, Salem & Langdon make it Harmes, Jackson, Brayshaw & Rivers are on the cusp Not one forward unless we are counting a questionable Ben Brown You're probably right on Fritsch but his kicking for goal is unreliable. If we had a good forward line he'd be under the microscope though I totally agree that May & Lever are a terrific combo but I'm playing coach and trying to find a combo that can win 14+ games May forward periodically though ... within games and not every game. A good coach picks his moments and we need more versatility within games in order to win games We are far too predictable and it wouldn't be difficult to coach against our team

Yes we need all our good players available rjay and they all need to play well every week if we're going to be any sort of finals threat But Goodwin is going to have to throw some talent forward. I'm reasonably confident that he will too. What have we got to lose? And what has Goodwin got to lose? (apart from his position) Gawn looks dangerous playing deep forward and Petracca was easily our best forward in 2019. Viney is a likely candidate forward but for whatever reason he only ever seems to play on the ball. Steven May forward would really worry opposition defenders (and the opposition coaching staff) Goodwin's biggest fault is not knowing where his best players are ideally suited (in terms of the best chance of winning games) Yes we might be robbing Peter to pay Paul but what if we don't win anyway? What will it matter? Swing the onfield positional changes I say but those positional changes need to make sense For instance, Goodwin playing Harmes on a half back flank and Brayshaw on a wing (for any number of games) didn't make sense when it was happening and still doesn't make sense A forward line consisting of any 2 NQR talls (who don't get near it) combined with any 3 NQR little blokes (who don't get near it) hardly inspires. Fritsch floats in but can't kick for goal whilst Melksham doesn't hit the scoreboard either (and doesn't get to enough contests) None of them would get a game in a good team

We've relied on any number of NQR's in our forward line for far too long. It isn't working and if we want to play finals a change up is required Players like Gawn, Petracca, Viney and even May could play forward (not all 4 at once but maybe 2 of the 4) Jackson can ruck for a time, we've got enough midfielders to cover for Viney (again, for a time) Ditto for Petracca and against certain teams May could go forward with T-Mac, Petty, Smith and 1 or 2 others covering in the backline May & Gawn are the only 2 players on the list who can take contested marks. Lever as well but not as a forward A forward line that constantly rotates (with an injection of genuine talent) would have to work better than what we've got now If Fritsch could kick straight he'd be our only relied-upon forward. After that who is there? Ben Brown if he can recapture his form and not much else It takes 14 wins to guarantee a finals spot and to achieve 14 wins requires a functioning forward line The better opposition teams flood our forward line knowing we can't take contested marks (amongst numerous other faults) whilst pressuring our midfielders into kicking towards the boundary line in our forward line And we've got no answers because our forward line lacks class & ability If we just leave things as they are we'll get about 10 wins

Viney would be a terrific small forward (defensive & opportunistic) But we need his attack on the ball & aggression in the midfield ... his decision making is questionable though In an ideal world we'd have another fierce midfielder type which would allow the Viney to play forward. His kicking for goal is quite good compared to most of our other forwards. But more importantly, he knows how to get the ball

He does and I would have vanders in the side mainly because he can put in the hard yards consistently as a forward (playing as a tall option) Ben Brown when fit is another. The rest ... doesn't happen The rest of them are in a general sense not playing as forwards should do ... fundamentals ignored and that's why we don't win enough games It's fair to say the AVB is not blessed with a lot of talent but he is best suited as a forward as he often gets the ball in the hot spot (our other forwards won't venture to that area often enough - getting crunched in the hot spot probably doesn't appeal) People here should watch where our forwards are positioned today when the ball goes into our forward line. Do we utilise the hot spot? Playing in front of our opponents? 2nd & 3rd efforts? Do we make multiple leads and present to the midfielders? Are we capable of retaining possession of the ball in our forward line? Every game I watch with great intent as to how our forward line functions. I urge others to do the same especially when premiership points are at stake And if we don't do enough of the above it won't matter how many touches our midfielders get.

That's right We haven't has a functioning forward line since '06 (apart from one aberration season - 2018) Yet somehow the midfielders keep getting blamed for the 'perceived' poor delivery. These people keep pointing at the DE stats for our midfielders (those stats become largely irrelevant when considering they have no one to kick it to) As a midfielder about to deliver to our forward line you'd see stagnant forwards who won't make position, won't lead, wont put their bodies on the line. When they do lead they head towards the safety of the boundary line. Not enough 2nd efforts, poor kicking for goal and our forwards often don't even make a contest But somehow, that's the fault of the midfielders? I often wonder how many people watch our games intently I suspect they've got their heads stuck in the stats sheet specifically looking at the DE numbers In the 70's we had a premier midfielder ... Wells, Alves, Flower & Fowler were stars. But we couldn't win games because we had a poor forward line. History repeating

The Black Opal Stakes is on at Canberra today - as well as a couple of other listed feature sprint races (race 5 & race 6) A number of the horses today are still to qualify for the Slipper so horses like 'Construct' would need to win the Black Opal you'd reckon. J-Mac & Bowman are riding a couple of likely candidates as well (Kalashnikov & Bourban Flyer) And tomorrow the Adelaide Cup will be held at Morphettville (Along with the CS Hayes Cup & Morphettville Guineas) Canberra races again on Monday with the $250k Canberra Cup being held (The listed Canberra Guineas is race 6) And when in Rome do as the Romans do ... just a few 'quinellas' only at Sha Tin today (and there's some value about as well) Here's a few links that can help if you're playing (the first link which provides the video preview of each race is very good) Expert Video Preview (Each Race) Odds & Fluctuations (Available 2 or 3 days Prior to Raceday) Comprehensive Form Guide (HKJC Website) Form Guide (Racenet.Com) All The Tips - Available 9pm The Day Before Raceday (Tom Biddington & RacingPost - 2 of the Best)

Was flat-chat at work again today ... how did you go? I was on Anamoe so started really well ... got a few decent quinellas (including R6 Randwick) throughout the day so ended up in front Could have been a bumper day ... was on Bivouac & Personal with bonus bets and just missed the quinellas in the Newmarket & Australian Cup (I had Zoutori & Holmsman included) ... excellent dividends though And as is often the case a number of the short priced favourites at Flemington & Randwick failed to salute. I often wonder why they attract so much money

Good get Gorg! I made a few bucks from your selection North Pacific ran last ... probably got an issue I reckon

Great report PF ... descriptive, comprehensive & enlightening But we need to know who this mysterious man in grey is? One of the Pinkertons?

I've had a quinella in the race including Samadoubt Gator's tips are up on Racing.com (and Sportsbet) ... he got 3 winners last week and they all shortened quite a bit in the lead up I like quite a few tomorrow but they are all very short ... so have taken a few doubles & trebles with some bonus bets I need to use up

Trialled brilliantly and has good first up form ... hasn't raced for nearly 18 months but its a real chance

But the team has yet to show that more aggressive & physical approach so we need individuals to do that. Just keeping it real May does it in the backline and Viney does it out of the middle (a physical approach) but our forward line is mostly insipid. And unless we fix things we won't be playing finals AVB adds that physicality to our forward line but if he can't get his fitness right we'll need other options

There's room for one stay at home big forward ... but not 2 unless you're a team like Richmond who are clearly superior with regards to their rapid ball movement Reiwoldt gets up the ground a bit anyway Players like T-Mac & LJ are best suited to using their athleticism anyway so at least we don't have to train them up to playing elsewhere up the ground

The team is a bit soft both physically & mentally so I'd be playing AVB if he can get himself fit and healthy We need 2 or 3 players of his ilk ... they don't have to dominate the stats sheet either. 3 physical types in the 3 main areas of the ground (as long as they can play of course) Melksham can play a lot better and needs to get to more contests but if he can return to his best form he plays as well ANB is wasteful and I put him in that small forward type bracket (and you can't have too many of those types in the same team)

I wouldn't necessarily be playing too many of our listed small forward types unless they can be relied upon to play well Jones will take up a spot at half forward and if Goodwin thought a bit more creatively he'd use Viney as a defensive forward or as a straight small forward That would allow Oliver, Brayshaw, Harmes & Petracca to play where they are best suited ... on the ball and at the stoppages. And Petracca may well have stints forward as well So with 2 KPF's (pick any 2 out of T-Mac, Ben Brown, Mitch Brown, Weideman, Petty or Smith) Fritsch, Melksham, Jones and maybe even Viney and LJ forward periodically, 1 other small forward is all that we might need. Bench players are often midfield players as part of our rotations We've played 2 or sometimes even 3 small forwards previously where none had an impact. Liabilities as it turned out If Jones doesn't play then maybe you'd play 2 other smalls but I'm inclined to believe that Viney will spend time in the forward line which then probably means that only one of Pickett, Spargo or Chandler plays. None of the 3 are bona-fide AFL standard players just yet anyway ... the future holds the answer to whether they make it or not And if ANB plays then we could easily end up with too many smalls in the forward line who aren't impact players Not sure we can play Jones, ANB, Kozzie along with Spargo (or Chandler) in the one team. And if Viney was playing forward I'd be only playing 2 of the 5 aforementioned in the same team If Hunt can't hold down a spot across half back he'd be out the team as well ... another one who doesn't impact games often enough