speed demon

Agree with your post. Two exceptions are Andy's interviews on this site (e.g., May, Grundy, Selwyn) and Peter Donegan's "This is your sporting life" segment that made everyone seem fascinating.

Can’t see Grundy or the MFC requesting a trade when he’s just won a premiership. He’ll stay for the next one.

More certain is that Nathan Buckley is not a premiership player or coach and he never will be.

Oh, you mean like this? Still, I agree with you. The context makes the difference. Absolutely sublime by Melksham though.

After the Saints game... Rowan Marshall: "I'm as good as Gawn & Grundy combined!" Max Gawn: "Hey Brody, hold my beer."

I see what your saying. Certainly agree the result was not solely due to the Lions choking. Dees deserve plenty of credit for their fitness, determination and composure in the last 15 minutes. Lions deserve credit for unpicking our defence for two quarters.

Seems they have. We showed great run in the last quarter, especially coming off consecutive 6 days breaks and hard games. Not sure such talk is nonsense. I think the Lions have to ask themselves how well they coped with the pressure of being chased down. Fagan for one looked like he was having a panic attack in the coaches box. Our fitness and Lion's choking need not be mutually exclusive factors in influencing the outcome.

Agree and that's why, as amazing as tonight was, we should not expect Gawn to play in beast mode every week. When we evaluate the Gawn/Grundy combo, we need to remember that Grundy's quality ruck work during the season has helped preserve Gawn for the end of season.

I'm in such a great mood I'm watching 'roaming Brian' and actually enjoying it...

I don't think we win this game in the midfield. I think we'll struggle to break even there. Our path to victory is via our greatest asset, our defence. They will need to repel numerous attacks and initiate rapid fire counterattacks utilising the full width of the ground to exploit the Lions lack of speed. With decent ball movement into an open forward line, our forwards are good enough to kick a winning score.

OK OK OK...but suppose a poster had done a first aid course AND once had a tight hamstring after squash, surely then they are appropriately positioned to ascertain with absolute certainty that the medical team's management of Oliver was grossly incompetent?!

Big call to leave Max to ruck solo against McInerney, especially off two 6-day breaks. Max should know his capabilities - and would have been consulted about this - so I assume he's up for it. 😬 On Grundy, coming off two major injuries and 12 months out, playing for a new club and in a different role, I think he's had a reasonable year. Credit to him and the medical/fitness staff to get him this far unscathed. I expect he'll be better next year.

Yep. It's an illusion. We might be happy temporarily but it fades as we adapt to the new normal. We acquire new desires and we are back to where we started. We have evolved this way to keep us pursuing things that promote survival (food, sex, wealth, power, status). Sadly, we have not evolved to be permanently happy. (Slightly) back on topic, the desire for premiership success is insatiable and an evolutionary by-product!

Well said. Agree with all. With BBB in, I'd have Gawn/Grundy out of the F50. Only 1 is required to bring the ball to ground and more than 1 becomes a liability once it has been. Would like to see Chandler (early season version) and JVR back but don't think it will be this week.

I hadn't been too concerned about Pickett's offensive form while his defensive form remained solid. Part of the usual fluctuations in scoring output for a small forward. Same happened in '21 and '22 when there were also calls for him to be dropped. However, what was striking about Saturday night was the uncharacteristic skills errors (fumbles, over running the ball). Something is going on and perhaps confidence and fatigue may be factors. In Picket's first 8 games this season, his average TOG% was 77.6%. In the past 6 weeks this has increased to 87.5%. In this time, his CBA% has dropped from an average of 17.8% CB to 0%. That might all seem reasonable; he plays more TOG when solely playing as a small forward. However, in 2022 Pickett played almost exclusively as a small forward and his average TOG% was 79%. Additionally, I thought Pickett's form was reasonable against the Giants. He had 19 disposals, 7 contested possessions, three scoring shots and 378m gained. He also played 93% TOG, his highest ever. Given his performance, TOG%, the wet conditions and the 6 day break, perhaps his performance against the Saints was dulled by fatigue. He will play this week and his offensive output will return soon.

Agree. I wonder whether we go for the same line up and have a tall (JVR/Schache/Smith) as tactical sub in case Petracca is needed in the midfield.

Good call. Similarly, match selections caused a lot of surprise...and some hysteria. In the end, the sections worked out well. Melksham's forward craft was very good and much needed in Fritsch's absence. JJ and Spargo showed their form against Collingwood and Geelong was an aberration and were back to their usual standard. Woewodin's debut was promising. Most significantly, selecting an extra midfielder allowed Petracca to play forward, which was the match winning move. Sure, it's unlikely a premiership winning configuration but it achieved the objective of getting the 4 points in a critical game.

Playing on a dry ground against a defence-orientated low-scoring team and having selected an extra runner, I’m wondering if we are planning to take the game on more this week (like pre-season, rounds 1-2). Saints will struggle to score 60 points. I think we’ll win.

Nice post @kev martin. I take the view that if a decision doesn’t make sense, it’s most likely because there is information I’m unaware of (rather than the decision-maker is a fool). If we assume selections are purely based on form, recent selections don’t make sense. Thus, I assume other factors are influencing selection. I think Goodwin has a clear view of most of the 22 he wants to take to finals. Thus, Salem and Petty are picked as soon as they’re available. I was surprised Brown played last week (interstate game with forecast rain) but perhaps Goodwin views him similarly - if he’s finally fit then get him back in. @binman’s argument that Spargo’s form dipped due to increase training loads and been managed makes more sense than any alternative argument explaining his form and selection. Agree with @kev martin that Smith and JVR are likely going back to VFL to work on something. I’ve liked what Smith has brought to the forward line but not his opponents intercepting and influencing the outcome. I’ve loved what JVR’s done but think he gets caught behind too often. I’m sure JVR will be back. Short-term risk for longer-term gain - at least that’s what I perceive to be the attitude of the SC. Off topic, really pleased Woewodin is been given a chance. I hope he surprises like Bowey (2021) & McVee (2023).

Agree with all your points @Ungarieboy. Especially like the term “gorward” as an abbreviation of “gorilla forward” (which of course Smith is not)!

I hear what you’re saying. Perhaps we’re not getting value for money right now but it’s too early to judge Grundy’s recruitment. Given his year out, new club and playing ~66% TOG, I think his form has been solid. There’s still a lot of potential to be realised from their combination if they’re both fit.

Once over the shock of a player being dropped after a best-for-the-club performance, I’ve come to like the selections. Always going to be hard to play Tomo, Petty and Smith and in wet conditions it’s unnecessary. If match fit, Petty has to play AFL. He’s the better defender and can play forward. From a small sample size, Smith has shown as much promise as a forward as Petty. Moreover, he has a transformative effect on the forward line with his ability to play tall and small. He must be given more opportunity. This leaves us with the option of swinging Petty forward or back depending on matchups, conditions and how the game is unfolding. I like this flexibility for September.

Agree. I know of elite distance runners who use a 10 day training cycle (rather than the typical but convenience-based 7 days) for similar reasons. Things you can do when you're a full-time athlete.

Given the bye this weekend, I thought I would give this thread a bump and submit a longer post for discussion. @binman previously theorised the three most significant determinants of premiership success – fitness, quality of the list and relative ages, and luck with injury. He also cited coaching as the next most important determinant. I have adapted Binman’s formulation to be: personnel, fitness (incorporating injuries) and method (incorporating coaching). I neologise this three-pronged conceptual framework as ‘the trident’. I use ‘the trident’ as a lens to evaluate our recent past (i.e. 2018-22), present (i.e. mid-2023) and future (July-September 2023). I hope my thoughts are received as contributing to the passionate discussion about the team we love and I promise not to make a habit of such lengthy posts. Many thanks to the great insights of numerous Demonlanders who have shaped my views. TLDR? Just skip to the last two paragraphs. The past In the first half of September 2018 the Dees charged through Geelong and Hawthorn, announcing our re-emergence from our decennium horribilis. We had a core of high-quality mid-fielders (Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw), an attacking method and excellent fitness. In third week of September, our charge ended in an embarrassing collision with a blue and yellow wall precipitating a reality check; our list lacked a spread of premiership-quality players and a method that prevailed deep in September. Steven May was an astute addition to the team ahead of the 2019 season. May would partner with Jack Lever - recruited the season before – and control the opposition’s biggest key forward allowing Lever freedom to play interceptor. Unfortunately, May’s early experience mirrored the club’s more generally for 2019. With half the list afflicted with pre-season injuries - precluding players from optimising their fitness before the season – the year was essentially over before it begun. Ed Langdon’s recruitment prior to 2020 continued the trend of recruiting players to perform specific roles. Goodwin’s use of Langdon in 2020 rejuvenated the role of wingers in the modern game. Darren Burgess, high performance manager, was perhaps the most significant recruitment coming into 2020. That the Dees went from an unfit and injury-afflicted 17th in 2019 to a fit and injury-free premiership in 2021 is perhaps attributable to the application of Burgess’ approach to fitness more than any other factor (link to short article with salient Burgess quotes below). https://www.afl.com.au/news/686425/fitness-guru-reveals-secret-to-dees-incredible-injury-free-run In 2021, our core of high-quality to elite players had expanded to include May, Lever, Salem, Langdon, Fritsch, and were now supported by a stronger cast of role players. Key to this was the emergence of young talent in 2021 (e.g. Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Harrison Petty and Trent Rivers). Ben Brown was yet another excellent recruitment, playing a vital role in improving the structure of the forward line. With a list of quality players an in great fitness, Goodwin was able to implement a highly demanding game plan involving two-way running. The attacking flare of 2018 was matched with a whole-of-team defensive press that suffocated the opposition. A footballing syzygy had been achieved; the alignment of quality players, excellent fitness and a unique and comprehensive method yielded a convincing premiership. The focus of 2022 seemed to be to repeat 2021 in fitness, personnel and method. While the record books show we won our first ten games, issues were simmering under the surface. Numerous key players (especially defenders) sustained injuries in the pre- and early season. Many continued to play injured, perhaps as part of the Burgess philosophy of building physical resilience. Frequently we read reports of players who did very little training during the week in order to get up for gameday. As Selwyn Griffith noted in his Demonland interview, during the season players typically only get about 70% of the training load needed to maintain base fitness. Across the course of the season, those players carrying injuries likely had even less training loads and this would have accelerated the erosion of their base fitness. This consequence may not have been realised until the second half of the season. Additionally, we now know many players carried injuries into the finals, injuries that directly impacted on their ability to perform. Issues with our method became particularly evident in the back half of 2022: slow and predictable ball movement from D50, long and high kicks to the pocket in F50. Relatedly, personnel deficits were identified: elite decision-makers and ball users in defence and the mid-field and reliable key forwards (ideally with defensive skills). However, these personnel deficits and method issues were not the primary issue. The most proximal cause of our finals failings was lack of fitness. This is most compellingly evidenced by our team’s repeated deterioration in performance in the third and fourth quarters. In all but one game that we lost, we had led by at least twenty points after half-time. We went from the best fourth quarter team in 2021 to one of the worst in 2022. This pattern of performance degradation is unlikely to be explained by method or personnel alone - whereby we would expect a more evenly distributed level of performance across four quarters. More likely, as a consequence of fatigue, the ability to execute the ideal method was impaired, leading to stagnant offence and porous defence. The present Entering 2023, a key focus needed to be optimising fitness. In this regard, Geelong’s change in approach from 2021 to 2022 serves as an obvious template to emulate. Consequently, we have seen more careful management of players (e.g. Hibberd). Time on ground (TOG) for key players has been reduced. Clearly, this reduces match day fatigue and quicker recovery. I wonder if this also allows for increased training loads on other days in the week. That is, by more evenly distributing training loads across the week, a great total may be achieved, minimising the aerobic fitness losses that occur during the season. At this stage of 2023, our fitness appears back to 2021 levels. We are again the best fourth quarter team. We’ve had a relatively low number of injuries and a near full list available for selection. Salem’s return from injury as his 2021 self – rather than the 2022 shadow – is further indication of a fitness team performing well behind the scenes. There’s been a lot of complaint about the lack of a proper bye and Griffith acknowledged this makes inserting periods of increased training loads into the season harder. I’m sceptical about the magnitude of this problem. Indeed, there may be benefits to our alternative fixture of multiple 9-10 day breaks. Either way, this year we have the benefit of learning from last years’ experience to optimise our mid-season training loads. In sum, the present state of our fitness seems favourable and augurs well. Personnel deficits have partially been addressed. Lachie Hunter adds a second specialist winger to the team and a high-quality ball user. Judd McVee has become the lock-down small defender we’ve needed since Neville Jetta retired and is also superbly skilled. However, the key forward positions are still in flux. Tom McDonald and Ben Brown’s bodies are failing them just as the game is moving past them. JVR is adequately filling one of the key forward positions (and has enormous upside). Petty and/or Smith appear most likely to fill the other post/s. McDonald or Brown would need to re-find their best form to gain selection as the combination of JVR/Petty/Smith is seeming more attractive from the perspective of the forward line as a cohesive unit that is competitive in the air and on the ground. Brody Grundy has been an upgrade on Luke Jackson of 2022. However, we are not yet getting full value for the Gawn and Grundy combination. Grundy’s low TOG (often 68-69%) is interesting. Perhaps after a year out of football with consecutive lower limbs injuries his fitness is below his peak and his gameday load is being carefully managed. We will likely see greater output from Gawn and Grundy in 2024 if both can stay injury free and improve their cohesiveness. I see Gawn as Grundy potential premiership determiners in 2023. Thus far, they’ve been good without being great and so are not attracting a lot of opposition attention. However, if both are fit and Goodwin finds creative ways to exploit their strengths at the business end of the season, they will win games and the opposition will have little time to develop negating strategies. In short, our best 22 in 2023 is superior to our best 22 in 2022. Finally, our method. The past two games have shown we are essentially still working on the same method. The foundation of our game is winning contested ball and whole-of-team defensive press. Recent sightings of the 2023 Demon Press of Death (DPoD – credit @rpfc) has been heart-warming. Adaptations to our offensive play were particularly impressive in the pre-season and early rounds; quicker ball movement, looking to use the corridor and attacking the goals. Expect this to re-emerge as the season unfolds. At times (and particularly against Collingwood) we’ve seen better use of tempo football; go fast and take risks when the options are there, go slow and play the percentages when they are not. Striking the right balance must be incredibly hard to execute and take excellent coaching and much practice. Perfecting this element our game is an area to watch closely. The future A significant limitation of this review is the one-sidedness; clearly there are 17 other teams striving to win a premiership and I lack the knowledge to conduct a similar evaluation of their prospects. Others will offer far greater insight into the opposition and I welcome their comments. Approaching this probabilistically, I estimate a 5% chance of the premiership being one by one of the teams currently outside the top four. Of the top four, Lions have the weakest claim, perhaps a 20% probability. I think we have a stronger claim than Pies and Port (I would say 30% probability) but I’m mindful of my personal biases and conclude the top three each have roughly a 25% chance of premiership success. Our ‘premiership trident’ appears sharp and strong. With the benefit of two extra years of conditioning into much the same personnel, our fitness may be better. With the additions of Hunter and Grundy, natural improvement of Rivers and Sparrow and appearance of McVee our personnel are slightly better than 2021. Our method appears sound…when correctly implemented. Combine our best defence with our best offence and we will finally see the Demons hold the premiership cup held aloft at the MCG in September! (Apologies for the long post – though I did make sure it comes in 100 words less than Binman’s Act 2! Looking forward to Binman’s Act 3 which I will no doubt provide a more nuanced prediction of what will come for the remainder of the H&A season)