binman

Mmm, Gawn and may will be hard to cover, as i'm not convinced we have cover for tmem in term sof young players. But we both may and maxy are on big coin, so we will have some capital to to say target Darcy at Freo down the track (i cant see the Jackson Darcy combo working out long term). And perhaps go after a Taylor or another other quality key defender.

Exactly. And IMHO, McVee, Rivers, Howes and Bowey area all future A graders. For me this is another key thing thing the media is completely missing about the dees - how much scope for improvement we have because we have so many quality young players in our starting 23 that will develop into serious AFL footballers. On Saturday we had four players under the age of 21 - JVR, Windsor, McVee and Howes. And Koz and Rivers are both still only 22. Bowey will come back in when fit and he is only 21. All seven players are in our best 23, meaning almost a third of our best team are 22 or under. That's crazy given we won a flag in 2021 and were top 4 in 2022 and 2023. And Sparrow is only 23 and Chandler turned 24 in January (meaning nine of our best 23 are under 24 or under). So much upside. Upside that not other serious top 4 contender, with the possible exception of the Giants, can match. Compare and contrast to the Pies for instance.

Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

Assuming lever is right that's how I see it too. With hore as sub 3again. If BBB needs a spell, petty could move forward and hore takes his role. Hore is also athletic enough to play a half back flanker role giving them some flexibility if a mid has to come off. For instance, rivers moves into the middle and hore takes his role.

I punt with a mate. Horses and footy (but haven't had a bet on the footy thus far, too variable, though i regret not making some money from the pies losses). We have a very good record for footy bets, with one exception. My record on suggested bets on the dees is woeful (though we had such a good run on us in 2021, including the flag, norm smith and multiple wins in the 24-30 point range that we're still probably somewhere near break even on our dees bets). So, we've made the difficult decision to not back the dees anymore (difficult for me, not him - let's say my mate is little less naturally optimistic, read more realistic, about our chances. To be fair to him, we have been mates for 34 years and I'm probably 8-26 in terms of my preseason optimism being warranted). I note all that by way of putting a warning on the following advice: You can currently get 2.76 for a dees win against Port (who are 1.46 favorites), with the line at +14.5 They are simply crazy odds. Particularly if Lever ends up playing. Defensively, they will struggle to cover our ball movement from the back half on what will be a perfect night for footy (dry, warm, but cloudy so little dew but no humidity). And our defence is perfectly suited to nullify their two key forwards, both in terms of our zone off, help out system and our personnel. The big slow lug, Dixon is perfectly suited as match up for Tomo. Dixon won't exploit Tomos lack of pace of the mark and Tomo is strong enough to compete. Hore and Lever can cover Marshall. Offensively, they will certainly trouble us with what i assume will be their normal super fast ball movement from the back half. And they will certainly get some good looks, particularly with the brilliant Rozee and Butters, and the reliable Houston, driving their transition. But our defensive system is the best in the AFL and we are the team best placed to stand up defensively against fast ball movement (as we have shown against the Pies last year, and even against the Swans in round one). They deserve to be favorites on their home deck, but 1.46 is way unders. As is the 14 point line. I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three seasons? Suggested bet: your super on the dees to make their +14.5 line, and whatever you handy have in your bank account on the dees to win @ 2.76

Maybe 20 years ago. But in our post truth, post knowledge, post covid world, Webber would be one of the first eaten. Sure he studied for years and has continued to develop his expertise through his career, but does he do his own research?

6 votes Steve May 5 votes Jake Lever 4 votes Ed Langdon 3 votes Ben Brown 2 votes Lachie Hunter 1 vote Jack Billings

Yep, forgot cox was a defender. And as you say a really good one too. I'm obviously in the not appreciating how strong their defence is. I'll reassess.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but the back six that played the Roos is, IMHO, not a top 4 defensive unit (i think I'm right in saying that Omac is the only best 22 defender missing, unless you include Corey Wagner). James Aish Alex Pearce Jordan Clark Ethan Hughes Joshua Draper Luke Ryan Alex Pearce is a pretty good player, but not AA quality. And he's their best defender.

Really? That was seriously his theory? Man oh man, some people. Imagine one thinking that, and two going to the effort to call a radio station and broadcast your stupidity.

Agree with all of the above But what i meant waa goody went with hore as the sub. And he was therefore available to replace may down back. Tomo will come in for may, no problems. Excellent cover for may for couple of weeks.

Agree with all. With the possible exception of the assessment of fritter's defensive work. I thought he was average defensively last week, but he got the melksham role on Sicily, a gough job, and limited his intercept marking He also got up the ground to help out defensively and laid a couple of big tackles. I'm about to watch the replay, having watched it live, so I'll keep an eye on fritter.

Freo's list does not have near enough quality or depth. They used a lot capital on Jackson. Jackson will be a good investment long-term, he's a gun - and should really be pushing for AA this year given his age and development. But they had a gun ruck and in the now, needed some class mids and quality key defenders more than a ruck forward who isn't a natural forward, or a one grabber for that matter.

Yep. And in what world is a 9 goal win not a smashing?

Goody said they are 'always happy' to let teams switch and hold onto the ball. Has been a hallmark o his coaching. Paraphrasing, its all about stopping them score. And responding to what the oppo dish up tactically. Another hallmark of goody's coaching. I said to mate leaving the ground that once we got a decent lead they were happy for them to play kick to kick 80 metres from their goals. They are not eating into the margin. And we just wash from side to side which in addition to being bruise free, that sort of half pace running, with occasional sprint is way less taxing that running hard up and down the ground. And if it's about percentage, keeping an oppo to under 40 points and winning by 55 is the way to build it.

Go redlegs. Professional win with some terrific individual efforts and highlights. Goody looks a genius with his selections. Hore replaces may. And Petty goes back to cover Lever. Despite losing our two best key defenders for a half, on a perfect day for footy the oppo can't break 50 points.

Response Peter is Moore: And don't you hate all the socio economic stereotypes you hear from other club's fans. Particularly from demon fans, who really should be renamed the boomers given the demographics of their pitifully small supporter base. I mean, I've never lived in the City of Yarra, but i went hard on property in the late 80s around dights falls and made a fortune. And our greatest ever Prez is my neighbor here in beach road Brighton, so hardly blue collar.

I might call in on SEN - Pies fan Peter from Brighton on the line.

One of the strangest elements of the weird faux culture wars driven by MAGA nuts in the states is the whole liberal tears schtick. That's to say trolling the left and reveling in their supposed outrage. Never got it what people get out of it. Until now. I'm embracing Pies fan's tears. I might even create a fake account on whatever the pies equivalent to Dl is. I'll call myself Peter is Moore, and my first post will be: Long time lurker, first time poster. Frustrating start to the season, but i cant stand all the hate coming our way. Doing my head in. That said, i know this sounds crazy given he won a flag last season, but i'm really starting to wonder if Mcrae is the right coach. I worry he is the classic front runner, who with all his love and cuddles can't give the players a rocket when needed. And i have to say i'm worried about the list, with all our over 30s plodders. its like dad's army. Don't shoot the messenger, but i've heard there is bit of discontent among the younger players that 'stars' are getting games they don't deserve. And then there is the constant drumbeat of whispers about 'cultural' issues. And we know what that is code for (there is one ladder we are always at the top off - i'll let you connect the dots, or lines as the case may be). Is it time for a mini rebuild, play the kids and focus on getting some high draft picks and setting us up for a proper tilt in 2025? Don't jump on me, I'm just asking questions. Good clubs are always open to difficult questions. And thanks for all your insights, Pie land is the perfect antidote to all the rubbish i hear down at the yacht club and the Brighton Beach hotel about how well the dees are travelling and how much more beautiful their jumper is (which of course i push back on, but its hard given the dees jumper is by far the best color and design).

Lloyd might be a flip flopper, but he's got nothing on King. Just on us this season so far King: pumped us up - don't sleep on the dees days later on the season preview of first crack (before a game had been played) he picks us to miss finals he then puts us back in his eight on the next first crack (which was after our round win over the dogs) Don't worry, he's jump off the saints soon enough.

If you plays this backwards you get a one word descriptor of the pies start to the the 2024 season: Unravel

Apologies to Demonstone, but this came to mind:

I just listened to McRae's presser. Rohan Connelly explicitly asked about the shorter preseason and whether they are behind the 8 ball fitness wise. McRae categorically denied that was the case. In fact he went further and said they were the fittest they had been in his time at the club and lauded the high performance team and the work rate of the players. If you take McRae at his word then that points to even bigger issues (their reliance on players over 30 being just one). They simply did not work hard enough last night, you could see it - particularly in terms of all team defensive running and covering the Sant's spread. If that is attitude not fitness they are in big trouble. It was a weird presser. McRae was speaking in metaphors and struggling to maintain his positive vibe schtick. Asked about being the first premier in years to have started 0-3, Mcrae was quick to correctly point out that the cats lost their first 3 games last year. To which the reporter (Connelly?) quickly responded to note the Cats didn't make the finals last year. Nice little drive by from McRae that i'm sure Scott will highlight when the Cats play the Pies. On Connelly, its great he has been gong to the pressers for the last season and a bit, he asks excellent qs and isn't dismissed by the coaches like the less experienced reporters often are.

I can't see hore being sub. Not flexible enough. Was thinking petty, swapping out for bbb, but perhaps you're right and he starts. Thinking about it, petts could play the melksham role and run with Sicily to negate his influence. We have missed such a player. Stretches the hawks defence and means fritter, who had the dogs best defender for company, and/or bbb get the next best key defender. Might free up fritter too to play his own game. Leaving Windsor as sub to come on in the third to inject some run and dash, with petts coming off if need be. Good management of a young player. If petts did come off, the forward line would then be the same group as against the Dogs. Goody said before the season last year they planned to use the sub in two ways - tactically or as part of their load management strategy. That jags with their use of it thus far. Playing the longer game for sure, and there is no doubt it is a calculated risk. But it's all about winning the war not the battles. The game has undergone a massive transformation in the last 10 years. It is so much more aerobically challenging for the whole list its crazy. And every team now needs 10 plus elite runners of the nibbla ilk. It's why Lyon loaded up on athletes and runners (by the by, seems crazy to have let billings walk given he is also a great kick, which Lyon has also targeted). Leaving aside injuries, the fittest of the real contenders (IMV dees, giants, swans, lions, pies) come finals will win the flag.