binman

I've gone from obsessively checking infection numbers and related info to refreshing twitter feeds and checking demomnland for any information on where our game in 3 DAYS is going to be played. Please let it be Metricon

Symptom not cause goffy. Everyone of those players have poor technique. Fatigue exacerbates poor technique. High training loads cause fatigue.

True. But the same goes for ignoring positive past events and trends. By that i mean clubs are looking at history to see what are the trends for teams that win flags. if you fail to remember the past you are doomed not to repeat it. For example, one clear trend, is teams that peak during the home and away almost never win the flag. Look at last year Port and Lions had barnstorming seasons and finished first and second. Neither team even made it to the big dance. Another is that every flag winning side of the 13 years, bar the hawks in 2013 have hit a flat spot like the one we have. And remarkably the Hawks were only minor premier in that period to win a flag was that 2013 hawks team. Surely those examples are statistical anomalies. They are more likely evidence of trends that should be followed. As we seem to be. At least the flat spots part. You don't worry when your Melbourne Cup horse finishes mid field second up over 1600 metres.

All demons fans who have written us off should not be able to celebrate the success thst will come this year. Joking. Not joking.

I didn't blame the umpires. I said they were terrible.

You. Have. To. Be. Kidding I can barely remember a game umpired so poorly and so inconsistently. And i remember a lot of games where the umpiring has been woeful. It was 11-4 at half time. Our fourth free kick happened on our half back line with 5 seconds to go. So it was essentially 11-3. And as always, it was the frees missed that were significant than the ones given. Sure we lost the game, and that's on us, but there is absolutely no question a big factor in their 21 point lead at half time was the rubbish umpiring. Simply not good enough.

Yep. Its funny spot up there on the bluff, but beautiful Am i going crazy? Am i right that Frankston are no longer in the VFL? What a powerhouse they were.

They do. Which is exactly why all teams are struggling at the moment. Happens every year around the half way to 3/4 mark of the season. Which is why scoring has completely dropped off a cliff. Again happens every year. And explains why there are some many rubbish games, littered with errors, turnovers and brain fades. Again happens every year. Also explains all the crazy results in this phase of the season. Sure we have dropped some games as favorites but there has been any number of upsets in the last few weeks. Of the top teams only Geelong have avoided an upset. Again happens every year. What is weird is this is not a new phenomenon. But every year it is like footy commentators and fans have collective amnesia. And so are shocked when around the around the half way to 3/4 mark of the season scoring completely drops of, there are so many rubbish games.....

Agree. The most beautiful ground and location in Melbourne? I would love to play cricket there. But when windy makes Casey winds feel like a zephyr!

We dont get extra point from a specific kick. But WE DO get extra shots at goal in total (and the opposition less), so the effect is the same.

True. To an extent. At the elite down to semi pro level in basketball every team takes a really high number of 3 points shots. And there is pretty much no poor three point teams at NBA, just some much better than others and osme who shoot really high volume. In teams that don't have a range of good three point shooters they always have at least one or two guns and engineer it to get it in their hands. Like Ingles at the Jazz. Our equivalent should be Fritter who i'm guessing takes a really big percentage of our shots near the boundary line. If he could increase his percentages even a bit over the course of the season he might kick say 10 more goals. And we might win say one more game as a result. In the scheme of things that would be huge. And poor three point shooting teams can mitigate that impact by having great rebounders and winning the ball back from the missed shot. And getting another crack at scoring Similarly the other part of the puzzle for us, which super alluded to is that our model of going to the boundary line actually creates more scoring opportunities (ie we mark it, hits the ground and we rove it, we get a stoppage or force a dump kick out - win that and get a reentry) and is less likely to result in the opposition going coast to coast. So it is a winning tactic. But would be better still if we we more accurate.

Yeah, nah. Some good points super, but goal kicking accuracy is an important stat. For one thing it is measure of kicking skill and technique. You could apply all the same arguments by in large to basketball. In fact in basket ball individual shots are less significant given a team might have 100 per game. But in basketball, at all levels shooting percentages are part of the DNA of the sport. Percentages win over the long run And it drives an approach to skill development and coaching that is all about building strong technique and stress testing it. Shooting is the building block. Footy needs to take that same approach. Our kicking is woeful. And our inaccuracy is a measure of that. One furphy is kicking from the pockets skews our percentages. Sure it is harder to score from closer to the boundary. But our poor technique makes it even harder. Similar to three point shots in basketball. Ignoring the issue means it is not properly addressed.

I actually don't mind callum twomey mind either. He knows his stuff about draftees and the draft. But nev, that article is hopeless. As you say he is a journalist. His job is to apply some rigour and analysis. I agree, I much prefer articles that analyse stats than opinions. But regurgitating stats isn't journalism. He might have well just copy and pasted the stats and not bothered with any linking paragraphs. Not sure if you are having a crack with the I reckon, I thought comments, but what I want in an article written by a journalist is some I reckon. As in an attempt to try and provide some answers to the questions posed. Some critical thought. To be fair, probably the critism should be for the editor.

Spot on. The gps data would be brilliant and take a hell of a lot of guess work out of things. The eyes say we are fatigued and not covering ground. The gps numbers would conform or contradict that impression

Which will be ironic because it will be another wet game where the poor fella can't mark the slippery pill

Yep, some of the stats are of interest. I thought it fascinating we are being more direct for instance (ie using the boudary line less). Seems counter intuitive. But surely his job is to provide some context and analysis for the stats. For example why are using the boundary less and the corridor more? As i have posted in any number of my very long posts, i suspect fatigue is the key factor in our slump. And old mate cam doesn't even mention it! And i reckon fatigue might be a factor in us using the corridor more. When we are up and about and transition it along the boundary line, it usually involves us running in waves and multiple players providing overlap options. As i noted in this (long) post , at our best that we generate a lot of our scoring from overlap run from half back, where we run in waves and swarm it forward, with lost of quick handballs. But atm only hunt and nibbler seems to be able to run and carry and offer overlap options. With no overlap running we are more static and more likely to kick from contest to contest more centrally. But yeah, some nice stats from cam. Perhaps he is doing a student placement.

What a bizarre article. Is it missing half of it? All symptoms and no cause.

Makes living in a democratic, western developed country a bit tricky! I wonder what the North Korean equivalent post is on their one state sanctioned football fan forum is. Perhaps: I hate dictators and unelected health officials. And i'm not thrilled about not having a functioning health system. Anyway back to the footy.......

All depends on your perspective i guess. Stubborn? Or confident?

From the dees website. Nibbler was one of our best and is much more than juts a running machine. He aint going to be dropped BEST Melbourne: Oliver, Petracca, Neal-Bullen, Lever, Gawn, Hunt Western Bulldogs: Bontempelli, Daniel, Macrae, Smith, Hunter, Liberatore, Schache

He is probably pretty gassed. Come finals i reckon Kozzie will be used as shock trooper again

Yep. I argued long and hard last season for Viney to play as pressure forward, for all the reasons you have highlighted. Viney might do some time up forward 9as he did on saturday night) - for example rotating with a Melksham. But i can't see goody changing tack, and going forward, pardon the pun, jack will remain a 80-20 mid forward.

Short answer is i don't think we should change our set up much. Some tweaks perhaps. And one i would consider is Meksham in an and playing some mid time. Perhaps at the expense of Harmes. I have always liked the idea of Viney as defensive forward, but i think it is easy to under rate his importance to our set up as a defensive mid. His tackle numbers and pressure is going up each week and come finals his heat around the ball will be critical. I was calling for them to rotate resting the young guns (and anyone else who needed a chop out) through the bye phase, but they have clearly made the decision to not rest players. The only time they have 'managed' anyone this season is Salem. And then only for a week. They haven't even taken the opportunity to give injured players extra recovery time eg bringing may, fritter and Viney back in ASAP. They seem to be using game time as tool to manage loads given the fluctuation in game time for our young players (many of who are only in the 50s and low 60s TOG percentage range) Continuity and consistency is obviously an important concept for goody and his team of coaches. Makes sense in such system, role focused team. Particularly one with 5 young players who have played less than 40 odd games and are in our best 22. They have lot to learn in a short time. Agree JJ is looking very tired but i'm sure he'll come good. And when he does he can play the same role he did early in the season - an outside players, who can can also win contest, who helps with our transition. And given he spent a good block of games replacing Viney, can be thrown into he midfield mix when required and with confidence. Not resting players is a calculated gamble. The price we've paid is the loses against Pies and GWs and the draw against the hawks i reckon. And possibly the loss against the dogs. If we don't make top four it will be gamble we have lost. If we do make top four, the reward should be a team that is fit, fresh and better able to run out games than the teams we play.

1. 100%. I'd add our overall kicking skills are a big, big problem. And an extremely hard one to fix. I hope that for the next 2-3 years that in their drafting and trading their number one KPI is elite kicking skills. I have confidence they will, given Bowey, Laurie and Rosman are all really good kicks. And Declase looks, dare i say it, de classy kick. 2. Disagree. As i noted above, when we are up and about, we generate a lot of our scoring through running in waves from half back. This often results in shots on goals from 30 odd meters in the corridor and/or where we are running towards, or into an open goal square. Which obviously improves our accuracy. Takes these out of the equation, as has largely been the case for the last 5 weeks and our inaccuracy goes up. But when are not running it down the ground in waves, or we are kicking it from a stoppage or free etc, i reckon we will continue to kick to the pockets. When we are on (ie applying forward half pressure, pushing our defensive wall high, stopping the switch and winning contest is and ground ball inside 50) this tactic increases our volume of shots on goals as trap it inside 50, and if we can't we win reentries and therefore get more shots on goals. Added to that it is the fact (when on) we make it hard for teams to clear their back half from kick outs after points as everyone has time to set up. Funnily enough we did go more central a bit more on Saturday night i thought, perhaps becuase of the rain. But the problem was they often won the ground ball and when they did it was in the corridor. I do wonder if come finals they might tweak the risk reward meter and maybe kick a few more to the hot spots at different times as a surprise tactic. 3. See above 4. Agree the mids are not in sync ATM. But don't agree we are deliberately giving up centre clearances. We're not. We are simply trying to increase the likelihood of scoring from any clearance we do win and so set up in a way that supports this. The key to making this approach viable is having a defensive system (which includes the pressure on the player kicking inside 50) that mitigates the risk of losing clearances . Sure Hawkins etc will halve most contests, but when on we win more of the ensuing contests than the opposition. Just as we did when we played the lions with their potent tall forward line. We don't want to lose clearances, but are prepared to risk doing so. Any goals we score from intercepts and rebounding from half back are a bonus that are factored into the overall risk reward assessment of our strategy. I have little doubt Goody will continue to pursue these strategies, perhaps with some tweaks or tactical surprises (that he is unlikely to reveal tile finals), but it is how we play. One person's stubbornness is another's confidence in their system. This is the way.

Its funny you should say that. A few minutes before reading this post I was thinking about the fact I tipped the dees, but in hindsight made a mistake in terms of the conditions. Before the game, my thinking was they would disadvantaged by wet conditions because it would make it hard for them to flick it around and possess the ball. And make it hard for Naughton and their other tall forwards. But I forgot to factor in how badly the rain would impact our poor kicking and how much the gap between their superior kicking skills and ours would widen. I also thought about the issue you noted about marks from hb. I'm not sure it had a major difference. Sort of. The issue was they were winning so many of the ground balls. And of course inside 50 stoppages. So I guess if we marked more balls coming in that would have stopped them winning those balls. And we we would have more opportunities to rebound. But we have been good at wiining those contests up till the last few weeks. I actually think the main problem we are having with scoring is fatigue related. At our best that we generate a lot of our scoring from overlap run from half back. Those goals where we run in waves and swarm it forward, often leading to us having an outnumber inside 50 with mids etc streaming towards an unguarded goal - like two of tracc's goals against Port. But atm only hunt and nibbler seems to be able to run and carry and offer overlap options. Rivers looks out in his feet. Jackson too. Same goes for Langdon. Kozzie is not getting up and down the ground nearly as much and nor is Spargo. Hibberd looks a plodder again. And Gus, never quick in the best of times is going back and staying there and offering very little in terms of run and carry. This lack of overlap run by multiple players was the reason we couldn't take advantage of periods where were on top. It also makes our forward line look more one dimensional, more crowded and our entries more difficult. The swarm overlap creates faster transitions, opposition teams are less able to get back to defend and it pulls opposition zones out of shape. Whatever the cause of the fatigue, I have little doubt it is the key factor in our performance atm. After 9 rounds most posters were quite rightly lauding the genius of burgess. We were clearly fitter than most teams. And we were running on top of the ground. We have lost that edge. But burgess hasn't become any less a leader in his field. And I have complete faith in his ability to make sure the team is at optimal fitness and freshness come the first final.