binman

I think I heard that in the last six weeks we are top 3 for scores per inside 50.

Two weeks ia a long time in football.

True story. One of the very first game I went to was dees v pies at Victoria park with an adult cousin. I was 9 or 10 , so perhaps it 1976 or 1977. I was sitting, so not in the outer I can't remember much about the game, including whether we won or lost. But i vividly remember an older lady sitting in front of me turning around and telling me to tone down my language. Haven't sworn at the footy since.

As ive said, I'm happy for AJ to get a block of games in the ones, and like everyone i love his energy and competitiveness. But let's not carried away - it's a big stretch, even with his energy, to say he is playing better than JVR has this season. Take the game just gone. Let's accept AJ played his role, but it's hard to argue he had anywhere near a good game. These were his numbers: Six pressure acts and 13 pressure points (against his average of 30) - only Sharp (who was sub) and May applied less pressure on a day our pressure was through the roof He had 15 ruck contests and had the grand total of 1 hit out (not to advantage) 6 disposals - 5 handballs and 1 kick I tackle 0 marks 5 contested possessions (Fritter had more!) 2 score involvements 2 goal assists (his best comparative number as 2 assists was an equal game high) The lowest player rating of any player on the ground with -2.7 (i know that doesn't tell the whole story)

I actually agree with you SB - ultimately JVR comes back in. Kid is a total gun whose numbers in his first two seasons stack up to the very best tall forwards in the modern era, and better than his peers in the AFL (eg JUH, Amiss, Amartey, Logan McDonald, Cadman). I have zero doubt he will make it. But like you I'm happy for JVR to cool his jets at Casey for say 2 to 3 weeks and allow AJ to play a block of games so he can settle and play with some freedom (so perhaps I'm catching the Picket train for one stop). A benefit of taking that approach is it helps fast track AJ's development, which in addition to improving his game will help ensure he's better prepared if he gets a call up at future point and will give the coaching staff a better sense of where his ceiling is.

I really think a challenge for JVR had been adapting to this shift for our key forwards towards being more focused, as a starting point, on ensuring their direct opponent does not intercept mark. I wonder if that helps explain why he kept on getting in wrestling matches with his opponent, something that must be a real challenge for a 22 year old key forward battling with bigger, stronger opponents. And for a bloke that has played all his footy as a pure key forward (I think that's right) it's probably counter intuitive and unatural to be defence first, not to mention frustrating. If I'm correct and goody is implementing a method that involves denying oppo intercept marks combined with manic inside 50 pressure (as evidenced by our off the charts inside 50 tackle differentials in the last six weeks - with an increased average pressure rating arguably the most dramatic statistical change since our first 5 losses) the key metrics for tall forwards are not goals and contested marks they are things like one percenters, spoils, pressure, tackles and above all denying intercept marks and bringing the ball to ground. All of which points to one of things I most love about footy - the speed at which the game evolves tactically. Having gone out ans targeted Lever to play the intercept role, we won a flag in large part because of ability to pressure the ball carrier to dump kick and then take intercept marks (a strategy we adapted from Hardwick's tigers and to a lesser eectent the crows) All teams subsequently implemented variationa of that method to maximise intercept marks in the back half and use them to launch attacks. Alir, Sicily, McGovern x 2, Vlaustin, Mcartin, Andrews etc etc etc all teams now have the equivalent of a Lever. So now all teams are going to work on limiting such player's influence - which would in part explain why so few contested marks are being taken by forwards inside 50 atm. It feels like goody might be going next level with denying intercept marks.

In another thread @DEE fence noted Chandler's use of low flat passes. I responded with this post, which i reckon fits in this thread given it's about tactics: Its interesting you should note that. It's clearly something they have been working on, ie low, flat passes inside 50 -often from near the boundary and kicked into the corridor on the 45. Langdon does several each game, ditto melk. And its more than just kicking back into the corridor - the kicks are being kept deliberately low, are often scrappy (particularly langdons) and often bounce before getting to the target. I'm guessing the idea is four fold: Get it to the hotspot quickly, ie not floaters to reduce the time for the oppo to get numbers to the target and by doing Ideally hit a target dead in front of the goal, 20-25 metres out. But if not marked, either because it's spoiled or because it bounces, it becomes a predictable ground ball which we fight to win or tackle the oppo if they win it. Reducing intercept marks In regard to the last point, all teams look to reduce oppo intercept marks inside D50, but we look hyper focused on doing so. Watching petty on Sunday from ground level in the pocket you could see his sole focus was blunting mcartin. Barely left his side or looked to get separation. AJ was similarly defensive. Even Friiter was pretty defensive- am I right in thinking he waxed with melksham to defend Blakley? Ironically, of our medium and tall forwards, Melksham who has been playing the defensive forward role, was probably our most offensive forward (McCartin too big for melk I reckon).

Its interesting you should note that. It's clearly something they have been working on, ie low, flat passes inside 50 -often from near the boundary and kicked into the corridor on the 45. Langdon does several each game, ditto melk. And its more than just kicking back into the corridor - the kicks are being kept deliberately low, are often scrappy (particularly langdons) and often bounce before getting to the target. I'm guessing the idea is four fold: Get it to the hotspot quickly, ie not floaters to reduce the time for the oppo to get numbers to the target and by doing Ideally hit a target dead in front of the goal, 20-25 metres out. But if not marked, either because it's spoiled or because it bounces, it becomes a predictable ground ball which we fight to win or tackle the oppo if they win it. Reducing intercept marks In regard to the last point, all teams look to reduce oppo intercept marks inside D50, but we look hyper focused on doing so. Watching petty on Sunday from ground level in the pocket you could see his sole focus was blunting mcartin. Barely left his side or looked to get separation. AJ was similarly defensive. Even Friiter was pretty defensive- am I right in thinking he waxed with melksham to defend Blakley? Ironically, of our medium and tall forwards, Melksham who has been playing the defensive forward role, was probably our most offensive forward (McCartin too big fir melk I reckon).

Picket, I think your train left long ago - and there's no one else on board but you.

Sure, but they have to drop someone. Tmac has arguably been our best tall defender tgus year, certainly the most consistent and he got dropped.

Good question. Probably sharp or spargo.

Still a chance apparently.

You should of arrested him for crimes against coiffure.

Brilliant wheelo - just in time for the pod (and now I feel complete)

So your evidence supporting your assertion 'our pressure had not even come close to that what Collingwood brings' is your personal observations. Seriously, that's it? To be honest I'm really struggling to avoid responding with sarcasm or irony. I'll resist that urge and simply say that your argument is, on many levels, unpersuasive- not least because of the high likelihood of confirmation bias given your well documented opinion of where we are at as a team. Why don't you at least do some research to check if the data begween roundv6 and 11 supports your vibe? If you are right the data will support your assertion, not contradict it. By the by, stats aren't 'my thing'. My thing is trying to understand the game, and I find a combination of observation, looking at the data, curiosity and taking on board the many smart, well considered opinions of many posters on Demonland is really helpful.

Not sure what you mean OD. The comparison to nibbla is spargs preparedness to play a distinct role, one that is wholly team first and completey underappreciated by most fans - but 100% appreciated by teamates because they understand what the role is and how hard it is. You might remember that for several seasons nibbla was the demonland whipping boy for much the same reason spargs is now- because his value to the team is difficult to identify in 1995 stats like disposals and goals. It still amuses me how when announcing he was leaving it was as if we were losing Nick Daicos.

True - needs to bulk up a bit.still though hecwants to be a gorilla hunter.

No t sure about the end of 2025, but agree May's pace is a worry. That said every team needs a gorilla defender to take the oppo gorilla forward, which most teams have at least one of. And May is our gorilla down back, with no obvious replacement, which i think means his best 22 spot is safe this year.

I suspect from round 6 on that is categorically not true - our pressure has been off the charts in that period. I suspect that from round 6-11 we would be top 3 or 4 in the AFL for pressure rating and pressure rating differential. And i think we are number one in that period for contested possession differential. But feel free to post data that supports your assertion that 'our pressure had not even come close to that what Collingwood brings'.

2025 says hi

It's worth watching the analysis vid by Jeff White that has been referenced quite bit in the last week or so. A big part of it is highlighting the importance of structures and players carrying out their assigned role. As i noted in another thread, Spargo is the new Nibbla - surely, we've all learned from the Nibbla experience the importance of looking past old school stats like disposals and goals to assess the performance of players with distinct roles. The KPIs for his role would prioritize defensive running, pressure and tackles inside 50, assists and score involvements. Yes, he's a forward but goals are a bonus. I'm not saying he's been brilliant (though he's been way better than many have suggested) but he has played his role, is presumably meeting his KPIs and is clearly an important part of our forward line structure and system. That's why he is selected each week.

On selection, as a starting point i think it is reasonable to assume that assuming there is no fitness issues (eg returning after rehabbing) May, Lever and Viney will always be selected in the staring 22.

It's funny you say that SONS. I just posted this in another thread: You can't underestimate the importance of the key forwards bringing the ball to ground (well, ot would appear some can). Its really their most important metric - which by the by points to a weakness in the Champion Data player ratings system, ie it doesn't factor in things such as adherence to role and importance to structure. Petty and AJ were both much more influential than their ratings suggests.

I think that's right - you can't underestimate the importance of the key forwards bringing the ball to ground (well, ot would appear some can). Its really their most important metric - which by the by poimts to a weakness in the Champion Data player ratings system, ie it doesn't factor in things such as adherence to role, importance to structure. Petty and AJ were both much more influential than their ratings suggests. AJ also brings great energy to the team, an energy that has to be infectious. That said he can't rely on that alone. He reminds me of kolt in that regard, great energy but not enough direct impact. He needs to start clunking some marks up forward and kicking some goals as he's actually not being used much in the ruck so he had to earn his keep as a forward. it would appear maxy doesn't need much of a chop out. As evidence, in a big, must win game (not to mention long and high scorin, meaning lots of centre bounces) yesterday there were 122 ruck contests - Maxy took 108 (85%) of them. And AJ only went to 6 of 35 centre bounce ruck contests. Contrast that to the swans, who also have a gun number one ruck. Grundy had 95 ruck contests and Peter Ladhams 27. If our second ruck isn't needed foe more than 15-20% if ruck contests then AJ is competing with JVR. So he Ned's to kick sme goals. Ultimately JVR will 100% come back in, probably at AJ's expense. But personally as much as i love JVR his development is not going to be hurt playing some more games at Casey and I'd be giving AJ a chance to get his forward craft in shape (it's worth noting he was a forward at Werribee) and build his confidence at senior level. Can only help the team. On JVR, I wonder whether he's struggled this season with the bollocking andcerestlint work our key forwards have given do - which would be no shock given he is only 22 and not particularly tall.

I think this is really Important- ie the system becoming more instinctive and players carrying out their role in terms of method and structure. You can see with the pies how critical a rock solid system that all players know instinctively is. They have been using their system, with tweaks of course, since the start of the 2022 season. It takes time to embed a new system, particularly when senior players have spent years embedding a different one. On that point, kudos must go to our core senior players for adapting so effectively in the last few weeks. Take claz. It's so evident that he is really trying to be be more judicious with his kicks, only bombing it long when that's the right and/or only option. Ditto for tracc.