binman

I 100% agree the round 19 game is of limited value as a form reference. But King is just as likely to laud the genius of the Bont next week and change his tune and make it a 'genuine 50 50 game". For what it's worth i reckon the current odds (dees $1.64 to win) are about right. And i reckon our 7 point line is excellent value.

Ta. Grammatically, it a funny turn of phrase to say the Demons 'insist they have a plan to be mentally and physically ready' (a line Tim Watson repeats word for word in the clip) Insist? Is someone challenging them on their plan to be mentally and physically ready, or suggesting they don't have one? I wonder if the dogs will also 'insist' they have a plan to be ready.

I'm not disagreeing with the point he is making about the round 19 game, but fair dinkum, David King is all over the shop. He swings more than marriages in the1970's. He gets a direct mainline of champion data stats and whatever he bangs on about is directly related to what he has read before he comes on air. In that same slot last week, or perhaps on First crack (he just repeats his talking points on that show the following day on SEN) he said the Cats v Dees PF was 'a genuine 50 50 game'. A 50 - 50 game? Please. What load of nonsense. And this is not hindsight. The bookies had us at $1.50 to win that game, not even money. And before anyone says the dogs win show that punting odds are meaningless $1.50 still gives the other team at 30 odd percent chance of winning. Of course the odds not absolute. But they are very good measure of probability (i think the most reliable measure), particularly when pools are as big as they were for the PF, because there is real investment, most of which by professional punters who back their expertise with real money, not glib opinions. Part of his rationale for the PF being a flip of the coin game was how close the round 23 game was and the fact thta the cats jumped out to a big lead. Which is just ridiculous. Why? Because in that game I'm pretty sure the Champion data 'expected score' had us wining by 4-5 goals. From memory Goody even referenced it in his post match presser. So this week the 'expected score' is relevant for his assessment of the outcome of the GF, but wasn't for the PF? And as goody also noted the stats at half time all looked how we like them to look, with the exception of the scores from centre clearances (an outlier as goody noted - which by the by is an interesting parallel to the Round 19 inside 50 stoppage goals as Goody noted that stat was an outlier too in his post match presser) and the goals we gave up in the second quarter. King, and many others, completely misread that game from a form perspective. Way too much weight was put on their 44 point lead and nowhere enough on the fact they could only manage 2 goals (and only 5 scoring shots?) in the second half of a must win game. Or the fact that their leaders - Hawkins, Selwood and Dangerfield went missing in that last quarter. Or for that matter the utter toweling Max gave Stanley, another leader, in the last quarter. All of those factors pointed to the probability of what would happen in the PF - and ultimately did happen. And those factors are why the weight of money had us at $1.50 to win that game. And King, a fella employed by Fox to do expert analysis, missed EVERY SINGLE one of them.

Let's just say we are never in the same room together.

You might like this spotify playlist then Mel: Binman presents - ambient therapy, part four Two hours of ambient therapy to soothe the soul and support positive mental health in these taxing times. Part four of a six part series. Lovingly sequenced and designed to be played in order.

I'm confused. Do you love it? Or there is no way you will ever love it?

Not the ones I read!

I suspect very little will be taken out of the last game. It was wet. Which helped their case given their edge in kicking skills. And did brown and Tmac no favours There was no crowd, just a big empty G. Which made for a pretty low energy vibe. We were at the end of our loading phase. And as a result our pressure was nowhere near it has bene for the last six games. Which meant they were under les pressure when kicking and handballing than they will be in the GF. We didn't employ any tags., letting Daniels run free and not putting nay defensive work into Libba, Bont or Mcrae. They brought an extra extra to the stoppages (so two extra) - and we didn't bother even bringing one more to the stoppages. Goody didn't show employ any new tricks or tactics. Gave then nothing. We we were very inaccurate. They took their chances. And we have not lost a game since. The first time we played them is the one to look at in terms of lessons for the GF. Short story was that we took their game away from them completely.

Is someone getting murdered in that photo?

I have a warm pepsi max x 2, stale O'briens gluten free beer stubby x 3 and a 2011 Golden Plains stubby holder x 1. Must be be fan of music festivals, a coeliac and unconcerned phenylalanine might be bad for you. If keen please do not DM me - faultydet is handling all enquires

Read the room CR

The Westies can count their money and capital gains too if they bought their property more than a decade ago. Property prices have more than doubled in that time.

The very best kind of Perth people. Unlike those stubby short wearing eagle flogs who made my visit to optus oval for the 2018 prelim some kind of Kathy and Kim hell.

One man's over confidence is another's being realistic!

Thank you

And simply not handling any pressure. So much fumbling

How good was that 40 metre drilling pass under pressure down the wing? A thing of beauty

Would normally agree. But given there is no VFL.....

Bit annoyed. Got the third quarter wrong.

Go redlegs. See you on the other side Demonlanders

Just doing my bit .

binman's prediction (sounds more authoritative in the third person): Game: I think we will have the better of a physical first quarter, get well on top in the second, come into half time with a 5 goal plus lead, resist a final effort from the cats in the 3rd q, and play tempo footy in the last to win by our half time margin Betting strategy: I'm very keen on us making our 12 point line. Load up on the line (even money). Half time margin might be worth having a small go at too. Back two ranges - Dees 25 - 36 @ $7 and Dees 37+ @ $11

Looking at the BOM radar there is s small band of showers' drifting across Perth ATM. But basically no rain or cloud behind the current band.

Sorry Dazzler, but you've made a spelling error i can't let pass It's youse

Finding it hard to be productive at work. But still want to contribute to the. economy. So I think I'll go online and spend $1000 on dees merch.