DeeSpencer

The premiership package: we know all about that one. The jumbo package: May plays the lockdown pocket, Petty full back, Tomlinson CHB/oversize flanker, Lever intercepts. We lose speed and run but can own the air The versatile zone package: 3 talls as last year, Rivers, Salem and 2 of Hunt, Hibberd, J Smith. By playing a lot of 187-190 flankers we can switch opponents at will. The speed package: 3 talls, Salem, Rivers, Bowey, Hunt/ D Smith. Plenty of run and pressure at ground level We’ll see how he adapts to year 2 but Bowey’s certainly a lock if he plays the same way. He’s good enough defensively to take a man but of course it’s the balance of his game that’s most impressive. Rivers probably played better when Bowey came in, he had more of a defensive responsibility and did the job. Long term I think he’ll want to come up the ground. I doubt he’ll want to be known as the lockdown guy. That leaves the one lockdown spot. It’s Hibbo from J Smith from D Smith currently. But Hunt could target this spot. It’s not his natural role. But it wasn’t Hibbo’s natural role until he adapted to it either.

Some combination of Coleman/Brownlows/hall of fame/captaincy and 250 games without winning a flag. Can’t quite get the exact thread.

If his demons career works out Taj will never be that tanned again in his life.

Hotel Quarantine was the state governments biggest stuff up. But it should be noted that quarantine was a federal responsibility until Scotty agreed to let the states take over because he had no plan and no interest in a plan. No plan for economic stimulus until Labor gave him one. No plan for stimulus in 2021. No plan for the vaccines. No plan for rapid tests. Every state also had leaks from hotel quarantine. It was a highly flawed system tackling a once in 100 year pandemic. And as bad as the leaks from quarantine were the states test and trace was awful too. Our leaks became an out break. And the deaths. They came because it got in to aged care and spread from nurses going from home to home. Why - because aged care nurses are causal employees with multiple jobs, because the feds like cheap foreign labour rather than paying professional full time jobs. The health minister got the lemonade and more ownership should’ve been taken from Andrew’s and other senior members. I don’t like Andrew’s. I have a moderate respect for him. I think most of his cabinet stink. Stink nearly as bad as the awful liberal state mps. I’ll still take the guy who’s actually made seriously difficult decisions and fought for Victorian lives and Victorian jobs/businesses with extra support packages rather than Scomo who forgot we existed until he needed a hair cut a few months ago.

Without Victoria bringing in harsh restrictions to contain the spread and drive numbers down it inevitably would’ve escaped at least to neighbouring states if not more. It did escape to a Sydney hotel, but in small enough numbers to be held up. NSW stuffed around with their lockdown and suddenly covid was in Victoria (multiple times), QLD, NT, SA and New Zealand. (Side note; It’s why other states were pleading with NSW to enforce a ring of steel around Sydney. Of course they refused but then sent an army of cops in to West Sydney, because they care about some people’s liberties more than others.) Until Delta covid zero was absolutely achievable because we achieved it. The smaller states achieved it the whole way through. And as a nation from October 2020 until June 2021 there was all but zero covid with no extended lockdowns. For 8 months the country was overwhelmingly covid free and prospering. If the Dees finish 17th in 2022 will you suddenly say the 2021 flag didn’t exist because we were bad either year before and after? I’m not saying the state government hasn’t made some howlers and the feds been even worse. But you have to evaluate each strategy in regards to the aims, the variants and the vaccine status. Bemoaning lockdowns for 5 cases and not 17k is very simplistic and ignores all the other changing factors.

Apart from the fact Australia held back the tide for over a year. With Victoria crushing an outbreak that allowed every other state to go about their lives as normal whilst the majority of the world suffered huge loss of life and far bigger economic impact. And that QLD, SA, NT and Tassie (and maybe one day WA) got all the way through to 80-90% vaccinated thus saving thousands of lives before opening up. Small minds will conveniently edit history in their favour. Covid zero was a fantastic policy for the original strain pre vaccination. Might've even worked for Delta too but NSW decided they'd mess around and enforce half measures.

We lost Vanders and Jones from our midfield depth and he's not better than anyone in the premiership 22. He's been recruited to fit somewhere between the 18-30 on the list and time will tell where that is. I remain somewhat skeptical of him as a pick up but with the covid situation as it is it looks very sensible.

Omicron might be our ticket out but it's going to be a very bumpy ride the next few months. We'll know in the next week or so whether 10,000+ cases a day in Sydney is going to mean our hospitals are ok or in big trouble. Todays announcement on close contacts and testing rules pretty much means they can no longer restrict Omicron on test/trace/isolate so they aren't going to try to do that nearly as much given the impact on the community is too great. The end result might be needing to bring in measures at various times to reduce the stress on the hospital system. Fair to say that won't go down very well.

With Fritsch and a resting ruck - especially given that will increasingly be Gawn as he ages rather than Jackson - I just can't see the 2 big boys working in the same side unless Weid makes huge athletic improvements. Sometimes Tommy gets on the tram tracks and can't turn but he still has the tank to run up the ground and double back like a half forward flanker. For Brown and Weid to work together I think we'd have to move Fritsch around a lot more rather than his goal kicking role and we'd probably be looking at Gawn dropping his forward 50 minutes right down too. It would probably even need Ben Brown to get his tank and agility right up to take his share of the hit up CHF minutes too. Which is entirely possible, Brown can certainly do that. But then you're putting miles on to that dodgy knee of his and dragging him from the goals too.

My question is: What's changed? Physical gifts: He had an interrupted preseason last year and is clearly motivated this year. So there's a chance he's stronger and fitter. The added physical tools then lead to better performance that then builds confidence and away he goes. Role in the side: He's been asked to play as the deeper target and crash packs - the Ben Brown role, but he doesn't have Brown's reach and often finds himself out of position and buffeted by strong key defenders. With more fitness he's a chance to play as a lead up CHF - the Tom McDonald role. But Tom is a freak really, there's very few who can run like he does and no matter how fit Sam gets he might not be able to do that. His best footy has also come as the back up ruck allowing him to get involved around the ground and get touches - the Luke Jackson role. There's a chance his game starts to come together and he takes his opportunity as a key forward, but overall I think if he's only made solid but unspectacular gains over summer I'm not sure it will be enough. So I favour the idea of a new role entirely and move him to the backline for summer and half a year. Worse case scenario it doesn't work at all and he goes back to being handy key forward depth. Best case scenario is he either excels down back or it rounds out his game by getting him more involved with the ball on the deck, more comfortable with marking situations and more confident to impact games. Then he goes back to the forward line with more tricks in his bag and confidence.

I remember in mid year game against Brisbane Tommy Sparrow cleverly put his frame in Daniel Rich's way to create space for a team mate. Rich went down like shot, got the free kick and Sparrow was sighted for a bump. He got a reprimand. According to the press release a 1 week suspension will now 'usually apply' in this scenario. And it's nonsense. Part of being an AFL footballer is knowing how to protect yourself. Now that all the onus will be on the player bumping the knowledge of how to look after yourself becomes less and less important, which has every chance to result in more accidents than before. No one wants to see the violence and thuggery of the 70's, 80's and beyond but preventative measures have to be applied to both sides. The same thing is happening with sling tackles. Players are so keen to draw free kicks they are willing to get slung. They aren't worried about getting a concussion if they can get a free kick.

If he's playing at Berwick and the family is still in the South East why would he be Essendon NGA and not Melbourne NGA? In general I don't care much for the NGA's. Clubs put in a fraction of their total footy budget - a little bit of time for a coach, some gym time, a bit of extra work for the support staff. Clubs really should just be happy they are contributing to growing the game with diversity rather than need a draft advantage. The junior clubs are the ones really responsible for developing players and it should stay that way. Kids should be allowed to grow up being kids and come through the system at their own pace. The way I see it the NGA is really just a safeguard to make sure junior clubs are encouraging spaces for diversity and multicultural kids aren't at a disadvantage.

For the visual learners.

#2 should have a well earned rest. Woey should be offered #22, but up to him if he takes it. Otherwise they should allocate the numbers based on the players preference starting with the earliest pick. JVR gets first choice, then Howes, then Woey, then Dunstan (2 year deal), then the 2 rookies.

This isn’t meant to take away from what he’s going through but I’m not sure being the most followed AFL player on Instagram is actually a good thing. It’s hard enough being a full time professional footballer at 21 without attempting to be an Instagram model too

Petty had 293 votes in 19 games. 15.4 a game. Lever 498 in 25 games. 19.2 a game. May 431 in 23 games (or 22.5 really). 18.7 It's another leap from an average of 3/10 per coach to 4/10 and the role in the team for Petty is easier than the other guys but I thought that was interesting from the leaderboard. Clearly the coaches really liked Petty's year.

If the voting system is exponential and a 3-4 out of 10 is doing your job for the team then that sounds about right. Gus had a huge number of games where he really was ordinary at best, I'm thinking at least 6 or more where he wouldn't have hit the 3 mark. Then a lot of his games were probably around the 3-5. With a small handful of very good games scoring 6+ that counter out the games where he didn't play well.

I feel like half our AFLW players did ACL’s two years ago and came back to play last season. Nic Nat was one week before a year. Lever one week after. Should be noted: Both then got injured and missed more weeks. If it’s not a week by week protocol but a check off the boxes protocol that’s meant to take 52 weeks on an average pace I can see Tommo making up some of the 6 week gap between round 1 and a full year out.

Conca training with the WA lads makes a lot more sense all of a sudden. He was doing hill sprints with them the other day. Good character guy who has the ability to provide some on field education at training and possibly at Casey, then seems to be doing the right stuff to do his off field role. Byrnes might’ve been a victim of the footy department cap squeeze and Conca seems a sensible replacement.

I’ll admit I’m harsh on him, he’s a proven competitor at AFL level, it’s just a matter of efficiency and role. Even a positive outlook probably has him covering one of our big 3 mids more than taking a rotation spot. I don’t see any versatility to play forward or wing. Then again If he gets the Choco treatment on his kicking and some increased fitness he could be a fairly different proposition.

Proven at AFL standard: - JJ, Hunt, Tomlinson Can cover a role: - Dunstan, Weid, M. Brown, Daw, Melksham, Bedford, Chandler, Baker, J. Smith Kids: Laurie, Rosman, Turner, D. Smith, JVR, Howes, Woey, McVee, AMW The guys in bold are the ones I think have a real chance to push their case in 2022 as genuine depth. If they break in to the side they might be able to hold a spot for weeks on end rather than just getting a look in on a short term basis. That's the kind of players we need to get to a squad of 30+ to cover a reasonable number of injuries. I'm harsh on Dunstan, he's probably not that far off but I'd like to see him in our system. Weid's 2020 was very close to establishing himself. Chandler has talent if he can find a niche. Just like the footy department I can't give up on Joel Smith. Then from the young guys I expect Laurie to push his case strongly at Casey if he gets a consistent run at it. Deakyn Smith has strong lockdown defensive traits if he can make another big leap over summer improving his ball use and physical traits he might surprise.

I do find it interesting most teams fill their lists rather than bringing a number of options in during summer and having a closer look at them. Deakyn Smith seemed almost a happy accident last year. There was no buzz about him training on, it just seemed like the right thing to do with the academy. And he thrived once he trained with the group. It would’ve been a lot with WA border rules to ask young Juddy to come over without a contract and I sense JT and co rate him rather highly for a rookie. But unless there’s standout rookies and your list is really deep I’d favour trialling multiple players.

Ruck and back up ruck give us a huge advantage in those positions over even some great midfields. And obviously Petracca and Oliver are a fantastic 1-2 punch with Viney at his best on par with many of the great teams 3rd or 4th option. But I think we fall away with the wingers and rotation mids. Probably missing out on the great winger and super classy half forward. That's not to say that Langdon, Gus, Harmes, Sparrow aren't all very good players. Brisbane had Lappin on a wing and Aker mid/forward as well as Black and Voss. Their 3rd/4th on baller might not have been as good as Viney but they had an advantage otherwise. The Cats had Bartel on a wing and Stevie J and Chapman on half forward flanks. They are the absolute benchmark for midfield depth. James Kelly and Corey Enright played as half backs given they were so deep. We're probably 1 or even 2 more really classy players short

Gawn is clearly a great of the club and one of the best rucks of the decade. At the same time he’s certainly an enigma. I don’t always agree with his leadership style. If he mentions private schools or the smoking story one more time I might lose the plot. But I can’t deny the results of a captain who is himself and encourages the playing group to do the same. On field he is a bit of a flopper at times but also gets very little from the umps. He should lead the league in free kicks. His intercept marking is just phenomenal. Only McGovern is in the same league and it’s a bit easier at half back than covering the full ground. His work rate is incredible, both covering space and to pressure, chase and tackle in tighter against mids 30cm shorter than him. Apart from premiership captain and a prelim for the ages it will be his marking and tireless effort that defines his greatness. His centre bounce ruck work suffers because he doesn’t jump. That’s where the Jacko 1-2 punch is most helpful to Max. We completely change our mix when they swap. And yeah - he does have the habit of playing mediocre games against young rucks he hasn’t faced much. I think that shows he’s such a scholar and does so much homework against rivals the trickiest thing for him is when he gets someone with limited exposure. Anyway, he’s a legend who’s done it all his own way with quirks and brilliance. No doubt he gets opposition supporters feeling all kinds of ways watching him.

Last season the Denver Broncos lost all their QB’s and were forced to play a receiver at quarterback. Other teams have lost most of a position group and played. I think the AFL will say as long as you’ve got 22 fit players then you play. But the contact tracing and state rules will be the hurdles there. I doubt every state will be happy with negative tests if the team appears to be in an outbreak. I think there were games in 2019 when we were without all or most of May, Lever, Jetta, Hibbo and Lewis, pretty much the first choice backline of 2019.