Fat Tony

6 hours ago, Random Task said:

My understanding is that he's one of the top endurance runners in the pool and he's probably one of the best marks for a medium sized player. Has flexibility to play forward and through the midfield. Might not be extra flashy but I think he'll be a solid pick.

My critique was not complete dismissing him as an option. There are many examples of good players who didn't look elite at u18. But the point stands - he isnt quick or strong or tall.

I don't see a high level AFL athlete in the highlights.

I think it makes the season more interesting. There are a lot of dead rubber games at the end of the year.

I like all these rule changes. The last touch rule has been almost in effect anyway.

The main challenge will be the ruck nomination and blocking the ruck.

4 hours ago, Roost it far said:

What like Petracca going to the GC?

Gold Coast has beaches and warm weather. Hardly the same as being sent to Tassie.

3 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

unfair advantage with their extra fingers

Sure but they will struggle to get through the banners.

2 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

Richard Flanagan off the long run; such a great writer

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/a-footy-club-meant-to-unite-tasmanians-is-bitterly-dividing-them-20251024-p5n50t.html

Even with the proposed stadium, the Devils are doomed for failure. 18-year old kids flee Tassie for the mainland in droves every year. Imagine being a gune AFL player and it is cold and you get 20k to each game and there are no nightclubs. Then Collingwood comes knocking and says you can come home to Melbourne, play in front of 80k and earn almost as much and go to nightclubs. It is a dumb idea for romantics.

On 22/10/2025 at 12:34, Axis of Bob said:

Dare I say, and this is certainly not a direct comparison nor even any acknowledgement of similarity with Josh Lindsay, the Toumpas trap.

Toumpas was a great kick, clever, high character, classy and had a whole lot of very good AFL traits. The problem is that they were stuck behind ordinary athleticism from a low-contest player. That meant that we barely got to see his clever ball use because we didn’t get much of it and was smashed as soon as he did.

If I were to pick up that type of player I’d prefer to do it later in the draft where I’m hoping to get role players rather than core pieces of the team.

As for Lindsay, I’d like to see more before having a strong opinion about him.

Your analysis is great.

But Toumpas was not a 'great' kick. He would have been able to play a half back role at AFL level if he was - even though he was only average pace and soft.

Looking at Lindsay's highlights, you see a player who reads the play well and finds loose ball but no contested ability. I think he looks a decent kick but his kicking does not have the speed of the elite kickers at AFL level. Grjl looks to have more of this.

I would advocate trading out of this year's draft into the future if we could pick up a decent interest rate. There will be good players to come out of the draft but there are not many slam dunks.

3 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

He kicked a total of five against Footscray and meth coke - neither of who have a backline.

I don't really see Petty working as a defender. He can still play as a forward if he takes big marks and kicks straight, which he did in the last month. All of May, Lever and Petty are getting caught out for speed in the modern game.

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

MELBOURNE

B: D.Turner, S.May, C.Salem

HB: T.Rivers, J.Lever, J.Bowey

C: E.Langdon, J.Viney, X.Lindsay

HF: B.Fritsch, B.Mihocek, K.Chandler

F: J.Melksham, H.Petty, J.van Rooyen

FOLL: M.Gawn (c), J.Steele, K.Pickett

I/C: C.Windsor, H.Langford, T.Sparrow, K.Tholstrup, C.Jiath

EMG: B.Howes, J.Culley, M.Jefferson

Key ins: Jack Steele, Brody Mihocek, Changkuoth Jiath, Max Heath

Key outs: Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Judd McVee Jack Billings, Charlie Spargo

WE SAY: A world of list change at the Demons during trade and free agency to kickstart a new era under Steven King. The addition of Jack Steele helps fill the midfield void left by premiership pair Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver. Plenty of others options to roll through there including Trent Rivers, Caleb Windsor and Harvey Langford all set for more on-ball time. Brody Mihocek brings his own flag-winning pedigree in the forward half and Changkuoth Jiath provides handy dash off half-back. The loss of Judd McVee leaves a void in defence. Steven May returns after he wasn’t able to find a new home during the trade window. But it wouldn’t be a shock if King begins to look past the veteran defender, with the potential for Harrison Petty to return to the backline. Max Heath also joined the club as ruck cover for Max Gawn and we expect Heath to be just that. Two top 10 draft picks to come in as well.

This looks a decent side on paper. But the forward line is top heavy and the backline depends on May getting speed back.

It will be interesting how the extra man on the bench changes things. I don't see it being used as a ruckman because it is actually the best part of JVR's game.

I think the biggest issues with our best 22 is the lack of another small forward and elite midfielders. Hopefully Windsor, Langford, Lindsay and Tholstrup can become high quality AFL mids.

I hope Rivers plays back rather than midfield because he is an average midfielder and one of the best half backs in the game.

3 minutes ago, SthSea22 said:

Problem is we can't play Petty, Mihocek, van Rooyen and Fritsch together

And Melksham!

29 minutes ago, 640MD said:

If the new forward structure does not include Harrison Petty. Then the competition between him and May will be interesting and might make him a player. Then again he might be let go next year for a round one pick and May retires, and we start again

as per Saturday night live

Very interesting

I am not convinced either of May or Petty are fast enough to play as AFL defenders anymore. That said, May might have been injured at the back end of the year.

We could play Turner, Lever, Howes and Rivers.

Petty played well as a forward in the last month of the year. He was marking well and kicking straight.

I think Petty is a forward and is too slow in defence. The game has changed since 2021 and he will get found out for pace in defence.

I like Steele as a player. He’s super tough and can sneak forward and kick a goal. That said, he isn’t that well suited to the way the game is headed and I would have gone younger and looked for someone in the draft. I don’t think we can roll with two of Steele, Langford and Cullen in the same centre midfield.

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It worked for us in the Trac trade though. If he was out of contract we likely get far less and if a FA only one compensation pick.

Perhaps. But we would have been able to match the offer and force a trade.

Collectively, the Oliver and Petracca trades have cost us $3.5 million in cap space for an extra pick. It is false economy.

These long deals are bad for us.

32 minutes ago, bing181 said:

It was 13, 15, 20 with two second rounders coming back. If we'd got similar we would have been worse off.

Also, Cameron was 27 at the time, with his best footy still to come. The reverse of Trac.

I calculated the points (not sure if i was using the current system or the old one) as Petracca being worth around pick 2. I don't think it would have been THAT much different as long as we weren't dealing with the Eagles.

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Thankfully he was under contract then!

Long term contracts aren’t always a bad thing.

As @Lucifers Hero says, Clarry netted us such an awful return for other reasons (off field stuff, and our mishandling which led to us having no negotiating leverage).

The benefit is having them contracted for next year. There is only liability thereafter.

28 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

I'd hope for another gun midfielder and a small forward.

Gun midfielders dictate games and win flags.

Small forwards influence finals games more than key position forwards. With the modern game being about speed, gun small forward are game changers. Brisbane are the perfect example of that. Their two key forwards were basically worthless come finals, but Cameron, Bailey, Rayner, Lowman etc. just won them two flags in a row.

With that in mind, Robey and Dovaston sound perfect, but not sure Robey will be available at our pick. That would be like drafting another Petracca and Kozzie essentially.

Ideally we get two players like Butters or Kossie who start as a small forwards but build endurance and strength to move into the midfield.

39 minutes ago, RedBlueandTrue said:

Yeah I just don't really agree - I think it was the right decision to offer the contracts and if you get a different roll we win a flag and everything's a whole lot better now. I think we were always going to struggle with our contract situation after having a crack at the flag and this would've been considered at the time when the contracts were offered but deemed worth it for a crack at multiple flags. You don't win flags without gun players. Would've been hard to get guys like Lever and May without offering overs in terms of length, doubt we win one without them. Are 5 year deals ok? Were pretty long at the time. Claz and Trac are not far off standard for players of their levels these days.

Clearly it hasn't worked for Clarry but I really don't see how we could've ever competed without offering longer contracts than the opposition. I'd love to see how many premierships we win on average from 22-24 if you could simulate it a million times.
I sure as hell agree with you that we need to draft well to be any chance of competing ever!

I think Petracca was already signed to the end of 2022 and Oliver to the end of 2023. And if Petracca or Oliver had have left we might have kept Jackson. (You need to put that into the simulation.)

My point is that we had all the stars aligning for long-term deals to work and it still backfired massively. We should learn from this, because we won't be in a position where we have three of the best players in the competition in the same side for a long time.

I also think you can win a flag without absolute top line stars. The Lions this year had McLuggage ranked #12 in the competition on AFL player ratings, Neale #27 and Ashcroft #40. They are excellent players but none of them would be considered superstars IMO. (Melbourne had the same number in the top 40 and the Dogs had 5!)

2 minutes ago, RedBlueandTrue said:

Tbh i think bigger chance in a world where we don't offer long contracts Trac is gone at the end of 22 and we're a bit further away while he wins a premiership with the pies lol. We'll never know.

Selfishness and immaturity? Were they immature to negotiate deals that could set them up for life? Selfish to ask for so much? They're just people trying to look after themselves. I get that you would've just let them go to other clubs and used the picks to draft some more kids but I don't see how that gets you closer to a flag when those kids are getting offers for longer deals at better clubs down the track.

The comments around character were not about them demanding long-term contracts. More that they thought they could have the long-term security and then cut and run when we are no longer a contender.

I understand our reasoning for giving Petracca and Oliver the contracts - we thought we could win flags in 2022-2024 because we had 3 of the very best players in the competition. But even in those special cirmcumstances, it has proven to be an error in hindsight.

Now our circumstances have changed and we should not be giving any long-term contracts given our current situation. Let players go for draft picks and find cheaper replacements who have been squeezed out by their clubs - even if they are a bit older. If we draft well, we will come out ahead.

The way for us to win is to draft well and organically grow our players to be elite. We are not going to be able to win by paying for free agents.

2 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

What?

I think the deal would have been similar. Cameron got 3 first round picks and we would have got similar.

The return for Petracca was around 2 first round picks (in weak drafts) when you factor in the later picks. It looks better on paper than it really was.

5 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

Spot on mate.

If you don't offer lucrative contracts, good luck keeping players.

You've often got the same people on here saying "It'S a bUsiNeSs!" but then saying "iT's A [censored] cOnTrAcT!"

You can't have it both ways. If it's a business, you've gotta pay up for your best talent.

Sure, it'd be great to have all your best players accept unders, but footy has changed so dramatically, good luck keeping who you need by paying unders. It's precisely why we landed Mihocek.

We are better off losing them and getting draft picks than hamstringing our list with long-term contracts. I am happy to pay people what they are worth, but the length of the deal needs to be reasonable because otherwise we risk becoming a basketcase when things go wrong. We are too small a club to easily get out of the hole.

15 minutes ago, RedBlueandTrue said:

I guess I just don't really see an alternative. Draft stars and hope they're willing to sacrifice better lifestyle options because they've fallen in love with the club? I think those days are gone. Maybe the last couple of years have just left me a little pessimistic. It hasn't worked out for Clarry but I'm glad we had Trac locked in and could extract maximum value! I also believe we were close in 22 and right in it in 23 and you don't get those opportunities if the gun players aren't kept happy. If we can get a home locked in so many of our issues will disappear overnight... can only wait and cross fingers

We would have got similar value for Petracca had he been uncontracted.

Petracca and Oliver were special cases because of selfishness and immaturity.

47 minutes ago, RedBlueandTrue said:

With our lack of a home base and being a smaller club, we are one of the least attractive teams for anyone looking to join. Anyone wanting to be in Melbourne will try and go to almost any other Melbourne-based team before us, with the exception of maybe North. Until this changes we have to offer long contracts to good players to be competitive - just the way it is. No one is driving to Casey if they have a choice unless there's a significant financial incentive.

I am aware of our disadvantages and we can only win an unfair game if we draft well.

But we are not going to win by offering long-term contracts which turn our best players into liabilities.

We need to be more willing than other clubs to turn the list over but making sure we hit on our picks.

22 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

There was nothing wrong with Oliver's contract!!!

Trac's was almost identical!

And, we were not taking either of them back.

But look at the different trade results:

Oliver:

• F3rd pick

• GWS take only about 50% of the $1.3+ pa salary freeing up only about $700k in sal cap for 5 years

Petracca:

• 3 - first round picks (2 top 10 2025, F1st in 2026)

• 2 - second round picks (ND 37 in 2025, 2026 F2nd)

• 1 - third round pick (2027)

• GCS take 100% of his salary freeing up $1.3+m pa in sal cap

Giving GCS

• 3 - second round picks (ND24, ND28 in 2025, 2026 F2nd)

The sal cap benefit of the Trac trade should not be underestimated.

As much as we all love Oliver and feel that the club has 'shot bambi' people need to ask themselves how two champions can have such a different trade value.

It isn't the contract!

AFL clubs have enough leverage to get a good trade with one extra year on the contract. (Even players out of contract usually get nearly full value.) But seven years becomes a liability.

Petracca's contract was also a massive risk. If he had not played again after getting injured last year we would still have suffered a massive cap hit.

Same with Brayshaw.

The long-term contracts are a disaster. Even a player like Kossie, who is a star, is now a libaility from a list perspective.

We need to let players go and gain players from other clubs mistakes. If we do this and recruit well, we will be a top club consistently.