Go Ds

These things are so boring: Same GF 3 of 4 PF sides the same Hawthorn, Carlton, Freo jump up slightly the second last premier back into the 8 ( another team improving slightly) A good GWS dropping a little after a horror end of year period. WB with injuries dropping down And slight readjustments among the bottom 7 *Yawn* I don't expect them to a North vs Sun GF and Sydney coming 11th. But this is boring and plenty will be wrong.

Not really. Finals are pressure cookers and plenty are dour, low-scoring affairs. If certain players keep failing in them or each time the opposition coach outsmarts the other then there's cause for concern. But you have presented 2 samples of 2! In three of the lost finals the margin was small. A couple of behinds instead being goals would make all the difference. There's plenty of chance in every game, especially in just one or two games. There's no guarantee for a much superior side to win a game ... or final ...or grand final. (Oh and your stats suggest one better kick in both those 2023 finals and we win both games anyway AND it's not rare for a side to win a final clocking 74 points. And of course how the team performs across the whole ground will influence whether the against is 61.5 or 91.5) Also in losing games teams tend to score less (and probably have less possessions or marks or their midfield is beaten etc etc ). I'd almost be surprised if a team's average losing score weren't well below their average winning score. Your stats don't surprise me. We'll probably be in the middle pack for scoring this year. Then if we win finals we'll probably be close-ish to our average winning score of the H&A season or possibly lower if a final is high-pressure. We don't have the best forward line and the forward line coach and the forwards will want to get 100% out of themselves this year (especially in finals). But missing shots or dumping the ball 40m out will be only one indicator of our performance this year.

I'm a little confused about this ..... In 2018 our average H&A scores were (for and against) 105, 80 (percentage 131.4) In 2019 our average H&A scores were (for and against) 71, 91 (percentage 78.6) In 2020 our average H&A scores were (for and against) 63, 58 (shortened quarters) (percentage 107.8) In 2021 our average H&A scores were (for and against) 86, 66 (percentage 130.8) In 2022 our average H&A scores were (for and against) 88, 67 (percentage 130.5) In 2023 our average H&A scores were (for and against) 90, 72 (percentage 125.2) In 2024 our average H&A scores were (for and against) 78, 79 (percentage 98.5) When we averaged better than 80 plus we made finals but our flag year was the lowest score among those. Are our forward line worries really that much? Last year was disastrous and even then we weren't too far off managing the same average 'for' as in the premiership year. Now we get Tracc back, a fit Oliver, possibly JVR averages a goal, goal and a half better per game and suddenly our 78 becomes high 80s. We've looked vulnerable forward since 2019 and I hope every player, every tactic, everything about the club improves this year. But we usually manage good enough years to finish high up the ladder .... and score enough. Where am I wrong? What score should they be averaging each week? Or is it something else? Maybe we shouldn't be as worried as so many in Demonland would say we should be.

Maybe. But our least accurate H&A season recently WAS in 2021!

Some of the answers are amusing. I know they're not meant to be but so often AFL players and ex-players are clueless with predictions. Sure they'd realise from experience how unusual it would be for a first-gamer to get 30 possessions or anyone to kick a 50m goal against a three-goal wind. But a lot of fans know this stuff anyway and many experts have insight that would not be gained merely just watching for 4 quarters.

And John Farnham was just about to start his farewell tour?

What changed so much from 2021? Were Ben Brown and TMac getting injured/losing form/going to defence such a huge wound to our forward set-up? Or was it more that we had so many more/better inside 50s?

Brayden Maynard? I wouldn't want to kill the guy. But does anyone know how to use a voodoo doll to give him gastro? (Just till late September.) :(

I don't know enough about Qld weather but March 6th is TOO early for the AFL season! If opening round was a week or three later AND the participating teams ONLY played other teams from that round in the second week I'm fine with it.

I still get the feeling that McAdam would have been a useful otherwise-insignificant cog helping gel the forward line. *sigh* what might have been.

Are their techniques wrong? I mean have you actually seen players drop the ball wonkily onto their boot or lean too far back when boot meets ball? I dunno but wouldn't the best AFL clubs in the world already be filming and closely monitoring all this?

Did you mean the 3.5-4.0 metre mark? Thankfully Billings still has time to change.

No one's going to ever like watching players miss goals. The club will have gone home with plenty of talking points, a sigh of relief ONCE JVR's back spasms are under control and officially we got thru injury-free and unlike many Demonlanders probably a 'glass is more than half full' attitude about that game. I won't panic about the forward line, kick efficiency or players such as Billings and Chandler at least with a sample of (technically) 1

Maybe I would have but the people going overboard would just sleepwalk through the stats. We lose some games through poor kicking at goal. But it's so convenient and simplistic to just scream out that we need to improve this skill. EVERY team has this problem at times. Every player, kicking enough times at goal, will miss goals they shouldn't. Unfortunately it doesn't matter how much a player practises, how fit they get, how much they 'perfect' technique or however much they discuss avoiding the "yips" with the sports psychologists sometimes players will miss goals, teams will have a disastrous day in front of goal ....even a disastrous FINAL in front of goals. Off the top of my head there was at least North against Adelaide, and Geelong against Hawthorn arguably winning grand finals IF their goal conversion had been merely average on the day. We all want Melbourne to improve their goalkicking. Hell, even if Melbourne (or whoever someone's baracking for) wins 80 games in a row everyone will still want better accuracy. But at times it may well be bad luck where coincidentally a string of bad misses all happen at once. I hope and doubt the coaches at Melbourne have ignored the H&A games and especially those recent disastrous finals ruined by inaccuracy. But what's the point harping on the Freo game? There were all sorts of reasons why we missed goals. Possibly poor coaching/skills training was well down the list. I wouldn't put money on it but with ZERO home and away games under our belt it may still be that actual kicks at goal, entries inside 50 and the forward set-up have improved. To paraphrase a lousy 90's sitcom WE WERE IN A PRACTICE MATCH! i sure hope the coaches don't overdo goalkicking drills now at the expense of other facets of the game. (BTW you can find the stats at afltables.com for one. We kicked at 53% last year (against our opponents at 51% and better conversion than many teams including 3 in the final 8). And as @Bring-Back-Powell said we surprisingly were worse in 2021 H&A season (50% v 54%). You could even use the AFL Tables website to see that as far back as 1897 there were finals where the team with more scoring shots lost. Anyway I look forward to more quarters/matches (no matter when in a year) where Melbourne kick badly and the feeding frenzy resumes on here. *sigh*)

I've just seen the stats of Melbourne's scoring shots accuracy in recent years. Anyone like to guess what percentage accuracy Melbourne was at last year? How many teams were more than 'zero point something' more accurate than the Dees last year? How about in 2023, 2022 and our premiership year? Have things really dropped off?

I sure hope your sister forgave you for doing that to her pig.

What's Casey in Chinese characters?!

What were the expected scores from yesterday?

We're talking small samples though. Did one player miss 6 easy shots? Maybe Billings missed a few. But even he can turn it around if today was the aberration.

Ouch! Sounds like it needs an ointment.

Surely the official training sessions aren't the only opportunities to practise shots. Some players may have put in hours away from the public over summer.

If we kick a bit straighter we win. Every team has the occasional inaccurate day. We have been notorious for bad kicking in recent years. But if we end up top 5 or 6 most accurate team this year worries about today will look silly.

They had a big game against the Indigenous All Stars. If they were a real team that had time to gel as a team they'd be top 4, at least. I suspect that that game was a better 'blowout' than a match simulation against lowly North. On top of that it was hot, we'd flown across the country and virtually were one player down the whole game. ( Was there a sub? I didn't hear) Freo probably should have been fitter.

Some downside. Even more upside. This wasn't a great spectacle and I'd tip neither side for the flag off today's effort. But the formula is pretty straightforward: get into the final 8 - especially the top 4; be fit; be in form and play like demons (pun intended) for three or four games. Both sides could still do this and I doubt we say at 14th.

Like I said it would be preferable. But no one will care long-term about the result a few months .... weeks ... down the track. Look how Melbourne and others dropped away last year and Hawthorn and Brisbane had almost perfect 'half-seasons' after worrying starts.