Skuit

One of the issues of our game-plan - forward territory/forced contested - is that we create our own flood against while exposing our back-line. This is obviously an accepted compromise from the footy department, with I believe the view that if we can improve efficiency just slightly at both ends - say two goals each way on average - we'll come out on top. Yet, as you say, we'll continue to struggle against teams which deliberately set-up to counter this and have the applicable attributes to do so. Goody, and Roos before him, are not reactive or interested in the opposition or what the opposition might be planning/doing to counter us. It's always about our brand - executing the way we want to play. We're still have the training-wheels on. Yet, coaches like Scott and Clarkson have footy nous combined with mature leaders and a win at all costs mentality. Hopefully we'll get there, but I don't think it's the players and footy department who are ahead of themselves - rather the fans. We thought we might be ready for a tilt, but the team is still being developed for a dynasty - under our current system. What's hard to fathom with the 666 is that when we get a clearance and bomb we still seem to be outnumbered or it goes directly to the opposition - I think demonstrating that our opponents are clearly playing against our style. If we insist on bombing it (and I accept that this is one part of the plan), then we need to sort out our forward patterns and inside bombing style. Kick it for touch. Or at least not the goal-square/40-45 meters directly out. The biggest problem right now is that we don't have the forward personnel for our style. No pack-markers and no crumb. Mid-fielders instead of half-forwards. A lack of opportunists and special talent. Slow and not particularly agile. And who's going to lead when they expect to be overlooked?

Demonland’s 2019 Home of Stats A bad time to get the ball rolling on 2019’s stats-file (and an obviously small sample) but hopefully we can keep this thread free of the usual so and so. Yes, stats never tell the full story. Yes, we all have eyes and can see what’s unfolding on the field. Yes, there’s only one stat that matter at the end of the day. But they can be a useful predictor to note trends and see which way things might be heading. Facebook isn’t worth $500 billion because of its advertising. Where there’s a negative stat – e.g. tackles against – it’s ranked in order of desirability; 18th being the most tackles against. Clearances – 1st Centre Clearances – 1st Contested Possessions – 2nd Tackles – 2nd Inside 50 – 5th Tackles i-50 – 1st CP Against – 18th Tackles against – 18th Uncontested Possessions – 18th UP Against – 14th Disposal Efficiency – 16th Turnovers – 17th Intercepts – 17th Clangers – 13th Contested Marks – 18th CM against – 9th Marks i-50 – 9th Notes: The three teams with the least number of kicks are the bottom three teams – the only such reliable indicator. Port and Geelong are 2nd and 3rd for clearances (and 1st and 4th for contested) but we’re only 12th for clearances against – indicating they could both well be particularly strong in this area. Both finished in the top six for contested and clearances last year. Summary: Despite not yet fully firing, the footy department would be pleased we’re still leading our key stat departments: contested, clearances, tackles. The decent number of inside-50 marks and tackles is a surprise (the latter perhaps highlighting our lack of crumb). We’re also forcing a contested battle as evidenced by the number of contested possessions and tackles against. Our skills are clearly letting us down though – with high turnovers, intercepts against and poor efficiency. We’re not a big uncontested possession team (9th last year) but ranking dead last is an issue – bombing forward and lacking or not finding run/options. Goodwin: we need better connection and to get the fundamentals (skill execution) right. We are no doubt still rusty. Also of concern, last year we were 2nd for contested marks and 3rd for intercepts – now bottom two for both. With Pedo and Hogan gone, Max struggling to get off the ground, Tmac out of sorts and Lever on the sidelines, we’re getting beaten in the air. Lever, Lewis and Smith were also among our top five intercepters last year – as well as Jetta who is well down on form. Next up: the Bombers are in the bottom-five for just about every category bar contested marks and clearances, both 7th, but interestingly they are last for centre-clearances and second for stoppages. Our previous two contests have been uneven affairs due to us having an extra day's rest on short-turnarounds – so I don’t think much can be read into the stats there. Go Dees!

Glad I logged on.

Who wants to short-sell their guaranteed Grand Final ticket now? I'll take it for the right offer. I hope no-one is getting sucked in by this 0-2 statistical BS. What are the odds of making finals if we win the next three games, and sit at 3-2? Or even just the next one, for 1-2? Fugazi.

We need some contested marking (and crumb, but . . . ). It's a release-valve when you're otherwise playing crap. And dictates how an opposition has to go about their defensive structures. Max has had poor hands at the start of previous seasons. He'll pick up. But in the interim, we need at least one of Keilty or Preuss. In: Keilty Out: Sparrow When are Garlett and Lewis available?

So is Christian.

Trust Melbourne to have a Preliminary Final hangover. Seriously though, these are all the same issues we've seen before. Bombing forward. Extreme defensive leakage. Forward inefficiency. Can't take a contested mark to save ourselves. And we've overcome them all before with limited tweaking. We have a difficult game-style to execute. High contested intensity, fast ball-movement, a forward defense. We believe that that level of difficulty will deliver a premiership edge when we get it down as second nature. I've said all along that the game-plan is a roll of the dice, designed to break open such a tight comp. But it needs to click before we can judge. 17 blokes under the knife during the off-season isn't ideal in this respect. Despite the score, we showed some signs of heading in the right direction today.

I would pay a million bucks a year for one good final to maketh us a flag.

Our last three appearances there (from memory) have produced one win and one two-point loss with a kick for the win, with the remaining match a dead rubber (albeit an admitted flogging). How does that compare against other teams? That record dates back to 2015, with just seven of the same players who will appear for us tomorrow: Us, the MFC, evolves over time. This current lot aren't the ones who haven't won a flag for fifty-plus years - it's the fans who carry the statistical scars.

We know what the rules are. 'Seeking clarification' is short-hand for 'Hey AFL, can you keep an eye on this please'. Thus, it really is a form of whinging. And it's smart. Clarkson and the Scotts do it all the time and it works. Running a football club is a multi-million dollar business and an old-school response isn't enough. I hate the fact that Angus went and befriended that Razor [censored], but I'll begrudge it, because it's proven to have been super-important for the club.

This. Insane not in an upset way but moreso a perplexed one. I respect Goody, but not Omac. Goody respects Omac, but not me. It's crazy confusing. So much so that it even has me reaching for wild conspiracy theories to try and make sense of it all. Could Omac really be the love-child of Simon Goodwin and the former FHM model Nicky Visser? Do the maths and it all adds up.

This is exactly why we recruited Preuss, in case of skin infections. We need to put Max on ice, and maybe papaya cream.

So there's been a few chuckles and back and forth on Petracca's apparent weight issues. It seems unfathomable that in this day and age of football professionalism CP5 would be that undisciplined or that the footy department might have allowed such a lapse or otherwise mismanaged his program. Sometime after puberty, the body evidently goes through another stage of transition toward greater 'manhood'. I'm still waiting personally, but could it be that Christian is going through this prematurely and at a rapid pace? I now concede that he appears unusually bigger, but not athletically out of shape or unfit per se. It may be tricky to manage such a state and find an optimal balance until the hormones settle into a specific shape. Or is it really just too much pizza and Maltesers?

Now can you do one for our round 17 match?

Are you suggesting there's still an outside chance of puberty to come?

That was his 19th game. And he failed to put on any height in the off-season.

I'm not sure exactly your point - but mine is simply the more you run the more your efficiency and spread drops off. If you get beaten in the contest, you chase more and then look slower, exponentially. Shift/return will cut out some of your white space by the way. We were middle of the road in terms of efficiency last year - right in there with the teams that dominated space. It was the crap teams with a higher number of kicks across half back which had better efficiency stats%

I agree in terms of predictions. But as to your who is ready at Casey question, it feels like Keilty hasn't missed a beat in a long while. Behind Petty last year (when Petty proved to be far from ready) and behind Hore this year - but consistently delivers in the VFL when he doesn't have a head-cold and looked up to it the JLT. Not sure what the kid is supposed to do? He has to be getting close.

There are a million issues. When we lose. They all start in the centre - and then get amplified from there. You have Jack Viney completely underdone and not competing. Nathan Jones not much better. It means the other mids are running more minutes and running harder compared to their opposite numbers. It translates to greater exhaustion. It looks like we're slow. We suddenly can't kick straight. The opposition gets it on the outside. We chase more. We get more exhausted. We bomb it in more. Which makes our forward line look dysfunctional. So we can't trap it in as well. Because our structures are broken. Easy rebounds. Our defenders look horrible. Repeat and amplify. Do you think any supporters think they have a fast team? Seriously, have you ever thought or have you ever heard anyone say; 'Gee, we looked fast today, it's a shame about our foot-skills and effort though.'? The opposition makes you look slow when they dominate. Similar: have you ever heard someone compliment their team's superior foot-skills but lament their lack of pace? Every supporter when their team loses thinks their team looks slow and can't kick straight. Just the same as every fan thinks the umpires are against them. Pace isn't our problem. We made it to a prelim last year with the exact same level of pace.

You can throw in Brayshaw for consecutive 'mystery injury of the week' leading up to and around Christmas from memory. That makes: Clayton Oliver (double shoulder surgery) Brayshaw (back? - interrupted pre-season) James Harmes (shoulder surgery - plus finger) Jack Viney (ankle surgery - no match fitness) Nathan Jones (hamstring - no match fitness) And it showed. As it does in the stats - which are probably the worst ever recorded by any four of this group combined. Any coincidence that Salem was our stand-out yesterday?

Frost is a headless chock no doubt. But for those citing the holding the ball and subsequent 50m incident - the game was slipping away, no one was spreading, and Sam was trying to do something, anything, using his primary weapon which I'm sure the coaches would encourage him to use. The 50m penalty was frustration. Unfortunately, Sam isn't the brightest of footballers, but I don't see anywhere near that level of interest from Omac, who seems mostly like he just wants to go unnoticed. His inability or lack of nous to kill the ball in dangerous situations is astonishing. I'm no psychologist, but it's as if he lacks the competitiveness or confidence to feel shame when his opposition number scores. I think Frost will be better than Omac in the secondary role alongside May. Over to you Binman. Thus; OUT: Omac/Hoare (and Spargo) IN: May/Keilty (for another small forward option, whoever) Note: I'm not blaming the defenders for the loss. The output from our entire midfield brigade was down a mile. Simply can't win games when that's the case. In fact, we did well to stay so close.

Underdone. Plain and simple. For those who wish to say that's a cop-out: it was even mentioned during the broadcast that our lesser preparation had been a pre-game focal point for Port. Seems strange that an AFL coach would think it important. They knew they could out-run us. And they did.

I may be a little bit excitable right now.

This should really be re-posted here.

Please please come out and crunch these mother-[censored] with the same intent we showed in the early rounds of the finals. That is all I ask.