Altona-demon

Weidemann was very good and did all the team things.  He could have easily kicked 7 if he was more selfish.

He'll play - but let's see him play more and more footy consistently.  He is so clearly far too good for this level though.

It can't be good for his long term development to keep beating up on part time footballers. 

So the powers that be maybe have decided that Melkshams ongoing lack of tackle is analagous to playing a deep full forward and having a three headed monster in Tmac, LJ and BBB. 

Wow that's a tall forward line - not quite WCE tall but still v. tall.  Granted BBB plays more as a leading forward. 

Excited to see how this affects the balance. 

Wow surprised that the dropped Jonesy - very brutal move. very brutal. Sends a pretty clear message. 

Link fellas?

2 hours ago, layzie said:

Couldn't agree more with all 3, especially Spargo's tackle. Was out of my seat in a flash.

No.2 was also massive in context. I honestly didn't care at the time what happened, who's free kick it was or what anyone said to hurt the others feelings but I just felt this burst of pride wash all over me in that moment. I said in the post game thread that we were here and we weren't going to be pushed over or intimidated.

That is exactly how I felt - just proud, been so sick to death of the "meek" Melbourne - pretty winners mentality and culture that seems to have been around this club for so long.  Now when one of those cheap Richmond hacks put on a shot, there were players streaming in to settle the score.  And with Kozzy we finally have an aggressor and not in the Jack Viney way - we can hold our backs up straight and let's bully some teams. 

Ditto - was pretty absymal watching the Casey Richmond game on the livestream....looking forward to this Thursday night game.  Wowee - so good watching some of our AFL boys go at it, and then some of the up and comers.

Loved that too @DeeZone it's very impressive how LJ can spread from stoppage, and somehow beat midfielders to their first touch.  Often that second touch following a tap out to advantage, really gets us driving forward and seems to let the midfielders to sit on the outside. 

2 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

In           B Brown,  Chandler

Out        Jones,   Melksham

 

 Melk or Jetta the sub.  Dont like seeing kids used as the sub when they need game time in the VFL.

agree with that, didnt like Sparrow on the bench. 

this might be a weird way to think about this question, but what would Richmond do if they were in the same situation?

Or what would the Hawks do? How does Melbourne, build depth, insurance, and put games into our younger players?

Some sensible hedging could be:

1. Sparrow in for Jones. 

2. Chandler and Bedford come in for Kozzie and Spargo.

3. TMac and Bayley Fritsch both rested for Ben Brown and Sam Weidemann.

Oh yeah - Hunt's run off half back was SOOOO good.  Riewoldt is such a [censored].

I know that this will be discussed at length during the weekly list of Demon's podcast, but I thought, would love to see a thread of what people thought was their main highlights from the game.

I might be going over it a bit too much - and maybe should move on - but gee got to celebrate the great wins!  Watched the replay yesterday, even better on second watch.

Anyway my top 3 highlights from the game:

1. The Trent Rivers spoil to stop a certain mark to Riewoldt.  Just the look on the face of Riewoldt, it was an act that I think captures perfectly the changing nature of this side.  It was almost as if Richmond just kept expecting us to fold, and in that moment Riewoldt expected it to come to him - think again.  This moment, plus the notable involvements of Dogga and Kozzy, excited me because it showed an "unburdened" young brigade coming through who know winning and don't have any baggage. 

2. The Kozzy Pickett no backward steps - let's be honest, like the hawks last week, Richmond tried to bully the Dees.  We have always had a perception of being mentally weak (- for example when Port got after Max a couple years back).  I certainly have never seen us be the aggressor.  Nice to have an element of bully in our team as well.  Kozzy scares defences more and more each week, just opening up more space for Tommy Mc....

3. Charlie Spargo's tackle on Houli.  I could watch this over and over again.  He's quickly becoming a fan favourite.  Love it!

I want this to be the breakout game where Christian buries Dusty, and all the talk is about Petracca and how quiet Dusty was.  Whether or not it is that career defining game, i'm not sure, but I hope so.  Similarly, I feel like Kozzie has been on the edge of a 5 goal performance for a long long time now (hitting posts, missing gimmes etc), I feel like he could go very big here on the big stage.  I am tipping him to explode in this game. 

Tend to agree @binman it will be a good barometer of the systems strength, and also the strength of belief that the team has in the system.

It was notable that when presented with a tactical puzzle against the Hawks, the nature of our ball movement seemed to revert (through the middle of the ground - and also entering forward 50), I wonder what will happen on the weekend. 

Any views on a "weakness" in the Richmond gameplan or personnel?  

Bumping this topic to see what the collective thinks is the strategic approach to this weekend's blockbuster.

Can we take anything from the Swans game - if so, what?

Apologies gents if this has been mentioned already on the thread, but how about that spoil to save a goal from Lever running back on the goal line, when the score was something like 46-41.  

That for me just felt so un-Melbourne to get there, and make that play, and had we not, in years passed I would be convinced Hawthorn comes over the top.

We all know that defensive efforts aren't recognised perhaps as attacking ones, but that one for me was a game winning moment - and at the moment Jake Lever is winning games for us. 

His spread at stoppage is incredible.  The way he follows the ball up elite.  He also seems to pop up and link so well as well - definitely in a way that Max doesn't (different sort of player of course).  He is one hell of a player. 

On 4/16/2021 at 7:43 PM, Pickett2Jackson said:

 

Good news AD,  since you posted after the Round 1 win we have knocked off 2 from the possibles column (GWS, Saints)  and 1 from the unlikely column  (Cats).

Agreed v. good indeed. 

Also Kent's bang on with the tag, we have too many players now that can get off the chain.  Was fantastic watching them to try and put a tag on Oliver and watching Tracc get off the chain - in past years Tracc wouldn't have been able to expose that.  Now he can.  Then they removed the tag from Oliver and he exploded.  Please footy gods keep this midfield injury free.  Although having said that, the depth we are building by rotating Jordon and Sparrow through there is very encouraging.  I think Yze is doing a GREAT job at changing the One dimensional nature of our midfield unit.  Anyone else been noticing how Max has suddenly started smashing the ball long out of clearances and also grabing the ball himself? Stops all the sharking that has been going on for years now (i'm sure that this is yze influenced as well).

The combination of the surfer bros Hunt and Langdon is a generational joy to watch.  Hunts dare and speed puts your heart in your throat, and Langdon's endeavour is an example to the entire team on effort.  And now he is more settled in the team culture you can see that starting to disseminate across the team

Is anyone else having trouble with ticketek?

I enter my members barcode, choose general reserved, and it is still trying to charge me?

what am I missing dl’ers?

@binmanI suspect the theory of kicking forward for territory into forward 50, is just a product of disciplined data analysis and understanding the key drivers of scoring. 

For example, if we outline the series of outcomes that could occur from such a kick (assuming the ball hits a contest):

Defensive Outcomes:

1. Defensive Mark

2. Defensive Groundball Get - required exit

3. Defensive Free Kick

4. 50/50 - stoppage 

Vs.

Offensive Outcomes

1. Offensive Mark - with opportunity to score

2. Offensive Groundball Get - with opportunity to score

3. Offensive Free Kick - with opportunity to score

4. Stoppage - with opportunity to score

Clearly the impact of the game of the offensive outcomes is greater given their ability to impact most important stat in the game - points scored. So which of the offensive outcomes generates more points? If we believe Richmond - stats tell us 2, and 4.  I think its interesting to reflect on whether they generate more 2 and 4s through having Lynch, or just defensive players taking less clean marks (which raises a different question - should defensive players EVER try to take contested marks? - consider for example Max King's third goal on the weekend where all three Melbourne players tried to take a contested mark, which was easily crumbed by King). It's clear from the outcomes that defensive players have absolutely more to lose from missing a contested mark, than the offensive player - in my view this should shade the way that umpires view the behaviour of "marking" forwards in the modern game around the contested mark.

For me, this means that for real success (in terms of points) in the territory model you described, a couple things are crucial.  The ability to create contests - either through personnel or midfielders being able to get the ball inside 50.  I know we disagree on this, but I still think clearances, and by extension inside 50s are paramount in this way.  A tall forward line up able to split contests, and small forwards capable of driving high numbers of 2, and 4.  Either through locking the ball in, or getting groundball get like goals. 

Alternative to this is to create separation and hit leading forwards and rely on goal-kicking accuracy.  This appears to be Tom McDonald and Ben Browns M.O - but does rely on higher skill and nullifies your small forwards potency to an extent. 

Legitimately came here for some good news! Lol.

When are we going to get that announcement from Perty?

Echo the thoughts that this is an absolute danger game for the club. 

Now let's see if this group has matured and can get the job done!

No excuses, really want to see a ruthless thrashing out there this weekend. 

Thanks for the kudos @Engorged Onion - appreciate it.

I agree with you - the takeaway I get from the review of the fixture list is as you say 10 - 12 wins at an optimistic level, which is edge of 8, and to be honest probably reflective of our trajectory as a club at the moment. 

Had we pulled a double header against for example North as opposed to Bulldogs - this could have had a significant impact on us making finals. But it still doesn't change the fact that the discussion is about making finals not about winning flags. 

The conclusion : based on previous performance, this group is not capable of winning the flag this year, and will be in the scrap for finals. I know not exactly rocket science there!

I like your observation on the Adelaide game at the "G" you are right, based on the past 4 years it certainly has tones of a banana skin for us, I can remember many of those games in the previous 3 years - I guess time will tell.

I'll revisit this post over time to keep it updated.

What do we reckon 13 wins for finals?

Good to have one knocked off and 12 to go if that is the case. 

Looking at our draw - and the performance of Adelaide last weekend doesn't fill with me a high amount of confidence about banking those two wins. 

So that leaves me with the following split at this very early stage:

Probables

North in Tas - Round 7

Essendon - MCG - Round 15

GC - Metricon - Round 19

Possibles

St Kilda Round 2

Hawks Round 5

GWS - ACT - Round 3

Swans MCG - Round 8

Adelaide - SA - Round 10

Collingwood - Round 13

Giants - Round 16

Hawks - Round 18

Adelaide - Round 22

Unlikely

Richmond Round 6

Geelong - Round 4

Carlton - MCG - Round 9

Doggies - Round 11

Brisbane - Round 12

Port Adelaide - Round 17

Doggies - Round 20

West Coast - Round 21

Geelong - Round 23

Based on the above, i've applied a 50% win rate to the Possibles, and a 25% win rate for the Unlikely section.

This leaves our potential win count at: 3 probables, 4 possibles (rounding down), and 2 unlikely wins (again round down). That leaves us with 9 wins - or typically around 10th in a 23 round season. 

I've highlighted in ORANGE the possibles I think are most likely to be the 4 wins, and then in RED the possibles which shape as big swing games (ie getting our win rate above the 50% and potentially into the 8). Notably this week's St Kilda game shapes as one of those in my opinion. 

I've also highlighted in PURPLE in the probables the game I think is the biggest banana skin for the club thats the North Melbourne game in Tasmania.

In the Unlikely Section - i've highlighted in ORANGE the two games I think we could get unlikely wins in - and in RED again a game we might be able to win to get us into the 8. You'll see I quite like the look of the NT fixture with Brisbane - and we have had Carlton's measure last few years - but gee they looked better than us against a much better opposition. I think we could steal one of the Geelong fixtures - probably not the GMHBA fixture in round 23, because, well we know how this team performs under finals pressure at the end of the season. Round 4 with Danger still out looms as a big game for the MFC. 

So, long story short, I don't think we've got the wins to get there this year.  But, if we can beat Geelong in Rd 4, and St Kilda next round, we may give ourselves a fighting chance.