Watson11

Now the draw is out time for ladder predictions Adelaide (soft draw) Melbourne (6/6/6 and learnt to pkay the G) GWS (soft draw) WC (Sheed has stepped up to solve their cp weakness) Richmond (Drop back because still weak around the contest 6/6/6 will affect them) Collingwood (Tough draw, backing Melbourne but could swap with 2nd if they have our measure) North (Ok draw and will improve) Essendon (May just scrape in) Hawthorn (Too old) Brisbane (Big improvers) Sydney (Drop back some more) Dogs (Soft draw) Geelong (Tough first 12 weeks. Season over by the bye) Fremantle (Improve over last year) Port (Cooked) St Kilda Carlton GC

Surely Champion data have stuffed up the analysis. Geelong are bracketed as one of the top 4 toughest double ups, not Collingwood or GWS. I'd put Geelong maybe 9th or 10th. If they fixed that then Richmonds draw is in the top 4 or 5 most difficult. Richmond also have 2 sets of back to back 6 day breaks this year, versus none in 2018, so they have a tougher schedule.

I agree Geelong, Sydney, and Hawks will slide. Suspect Adelaide, North and Bombers to come up. Don't think Port will. Is Gil from Adelaide? They have no back to back 6 day breaks. Have 12 games at Adelaide Oval and mostly very winnable away games (Sydney where they do well, North at Marvel, St's, Lions, Cats, Suns, Carlton, Dogs). They double up against 2 bottom 3 teams despite not finishing bottom 6. They won 12 games in 2018 having a shocker, and have been gifted an extra 2 wins this year. I can't see them winning less than 15 games and they will probably win 17 and finish top 2. Considering Essendon finished equal with Adelaide on points and percentage, the contrast could not be more different. They double up against 4 of last years top 9 (like us but we earned it) plus the Dockers who will improve and be tough in Perth. The first 8 weeks could cook Essendons season with 4 x 6 day turnarounds and 1 x 5 day turnaround in a 7 week stretch. Let's see how Danihers groin stands up to that. The back half they have two 6 day turnarounds leading into away games (Eagles at Optus, Adelaide), and head to the Gold Coast after Adelaide (kind of game they will drop). I expect them to be more hot and cold than they were in 2018 and no certainty to make the 8 despite looking good on paper. We have a tough first 5 weeks due to short turnarounds (5 games in 25 days), but after that we have a good draw and will not have any excuses if we don't finish top 4 (we should be aiming for top 2). We can beat any team anywhere in 2019.

Our record at the MCG last year (and the year before) was 50:50..... We have a better record elsewhere. Hopefully we sorted that out at the end of the year and this year will be better.

The NT helped us recover financially and imo now we are decent we should support the NT. We should have an advantage up there by now. We've played it enough. I can't see why the geniuses at the AFL can't arrange a fixture with no more than one 6 day break in a row. Two in a row starts to hurt teams. This year Collingwood, Port, Adelaide, and Sydney had back to back 6 day breaks. Adelaide and Collingwood had bad soft tissue injuries. Port ended up cooked. Three 6 day breaks in a row kills seasons and should never happen (ie us in 2017). It's why we should have opened on Friday night.

The annoying thing is we will have two days less turnaround over the first 4 weeks than Richmond before ANZAC eve. We’ll have 3 6 day breaks, Richmond 1. Same re Collingwood and Essendon. No surprise to see the AFL favour Richmond and Collingwood there.... They know revenue will be great if they have good seasons...

They are 2018 figures. I agree with you re Omac. If you look at career stats Omac is slightly ahead at 25.1% versus 26.7% for Frosty. Frosts 2018 one on one stats support your prior views (and Goody's) that the forward/midfield pressure was the big issue with our leaking goals at times. Frost didn't suddenly go from an average to great one on one player. He was able to improve so much because our forwards and mids lifted the pressure out of sight. If we maintain that in 2019 it really won't matter who is in between Omac and Frost, we'll be hard to score against and bolstering our defense is really icing on the cake. May and Lever are also great leaders, so will help the mids remain accountable.

I don't think so. I think the teams they play twice will be 3 in their 6 based on ladder positions, 1 in each of the other two groups of 6, with a showdown guaranteed against Port. Last years the teams Adelaide played twice were Port, Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton, and the Giants. They'll play Port twice and double up against 2 of Geelong, Sydney, North, and Essendon in 2019. They'll double up against one of the top 6 and have requested Hawthorn, Collingwood, and Richmond before us...

Read yesterday that Adelaide requested 6 home games against Melbourne teams (Richmond, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton, and Essendon). Surely they don’t want to play in Alice again!

I think binman was comparing Omac and May at the same age. Frost had 222.85m gained per game versus Omacs 200m so not too different. Omac had 2.08 turnovers per game versus Frost 3.08. Frost 2.77 score involvements versus Omac at 1.84. They are close. Different strengths and weaknesses.

Frost got Hawkins for a quarter at Geelong and 4 quarters in elimination. Absolutely got Buddy and held him goalless. Could be right about Hawthorn although I thought Omac picked up Schoemaker but can’t really remember.

http://m.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/ Definitely Omac was getting the key defender until after our Geelong game when Frost went in front of him and got Buddy, Hawkins, Kennedy, Walker etc and yes a large part of it is our forward and mid pressure improved which IMO is the key to us being genuine flag contenders. But in that period Omac was getting the second forward so would have also had improved stats. Omac and Frost will both be in the 22 next year until Lever comes back in and it probably comes down to who is in better form at the time. Good position to be in compared to the issues we had when Lever went down this year.

Except at the end of the year when Frost was getting the best forward (Hawkins, Franklin, Kennedy, Roughead...).

Frost before Omac for me. Frost was in the top 5 one on one defenders in the AFL in 2018, losing only 17.6% of contests. Omac was just above average losing 26.7% of contests. FYI, Lever was ranked 2nd in the league at 15.4% and May around 10th at 21.4%. Our one on one defending was good last year and will be better in 2019. Your welcome to quote the actual stats to jnrmac ? My crystal ball prediction is we'll have a bad loss at some stage in 2019 when our forwards and mids are not defensively switched on, and demonland will go into meltdown over how bad our one on one defending is.....

I can't see us looking at Menzel. AFL coaches know the major source of scoring by far is turnovers. Any forward who doesn't apply forward 50 pressure and create turnovers is a liability. Menzel has never showed anything defensively despite probably being roasted about it by Scott. Not even a depth player. Both Smiths would get a run in the forward line by Goody before Menzel.

That's a fair enough point but is that all you would have done? What I don't get though is why they didn't go hard for some hard nut insiders, because it is a major weakness. Why didn't they try and get Tyson or others that were available. In 2018 they almost concede they won't get their hands on the ball first around stoppages and just rely on pressuring the ball carrier so they can get intercepts in the defensive 50. How that strategy backfired in the prelim. It is a major flaw they have.

People can rate trades now, but it is just opinions and gives us something to talk about. No-one can argue they are right or wrong until later. For example, my opinion is Plough is not just wrong on our trading but also Richmonds. He had Richmond as an A. I don't see it. Richmonds biggest problem in 2018 was they suck at contested ball and clearances and covered that well for most of the season due to being the best pressure team. Collingwood exposed them in clearances in the prelim. Richmond have done nothing to address that. They had to create salary cap space to get Lynch and shed 5 of their better depth players. Maybe some player discontent as well. Time will tell but I think we did better in the trade period than Richmond because we addressed some shortcomings. Richmond strengthened an area that they were already good (2nd highest scoring team). I hope we play both Max and Preuss on ANZAC eve to totally destroy Nankervis, starve the Richmond forwards, and expose what a useless critic Plough is....

That’s 64 points more than we actually lost by and the negative way to look at it. With the reverse logic an optimist might say we could’ve almost won it! Both statements are stupid. Fact is we lost by 66 points in the prelim and still have to improve.

I’m happy to argue it Hemingway. Not every investment pays off long term but if you don’t make them you end up broke. In Hogan’s case we got a good return while invested, but now sold that and invested it elsewhere. Jesse was drafted into the club when we were basket cases. Since he arrived we have gone from the basement to top 4. He made an impact as soon as he got on the ground and every year he was here the club improved and he was a part of it. Circumstances (Tmac becoming an elite forward, Weid stepping up at the end of the season), meant the FD were open to a trade. For every go home factor, or top draft getting a once in a lifetime offer, there are the Olivers and Brayshaws that if we didn’t invest in them we’d be back in the cellar soon enough.

Just a turn of phrase La Dee. Who kicks them with Hogan gone is what this thread is about. Point I was making is in big games goals are worth gold, and JH did not impact (9 goals in 8 games). I can see Max being a big weapon for us pushing forward more if Preuss plays. Max kicked 13.12 in 2018. Weid also can take pack marks in a way JH can't. 2 or 3 extra goals from contested marks in big games could be the difference between finishing 5th and 1st. If we keep improving hitting lead ups going inside 50 as well we'll be more dangerous next year than we were this year by far.

Preuss and Max to rotate forward. They both actually chase and tackle...

Gawns positioning helped but imo wasn’t the most important change. He couldn’t get back when we lost centre clearances. And when we were better at forward 50 pressure and slowing transition out of our forward 50 it allowed Gawn time to get back and bolster up our defence. Earlier in the season usain bolt wouldn’t have had time to get back. It’s evident the club wanted to further boost our defence, but also just as evident that players in our forward 50 who don’t work hard defensively are dropped or shown the door.

Even in his good games he’ll kick 3 or 4 but his direct opponent will initiate 6 scoring chains... can’t wait for Lever to play on him....

The stats you quote are for the entire season and we improved out of sight. Post St Kilda to the prelim we improved every single defensive stat and were the AFLs number 1 defensive team. Lowest points against, lowest points scored from turnovers (that came crashing down in the prelim), 4th lowest scores per oppo inside 50, 2nd best at forcing turnovers from oppo inside 50s (not sure of one on one stats but improved out of sight) etc etc. It was a stunning turnaround, and mainly because of forward 50 and midfield pressure, although Frost was good. Last 2 years when we keep oppo to less than 75 points we are 18 - 0. Average against in the post St Kilda to semi final period was 69 points. With Lever back and May in we will be beasts.... Best balanced team I can remember.

I’m one that doesn’t totally agree with you on defence but can understand your view. To me our defence starts in the forward 50 and mids. When we learnt to defend at the end of the season our defence was pretty good. Lever going down was a blessing in disguise because it was obvious that if our forwards and mids didn’t get the balance right then we’d struggle to make finals. But they worked it out just in time. But that said, I’m much happier to have Lever back and May to take the best forward. I think it clicked for the group at the end of the season. And 6-6-6 favours Melbourne more than any team (Number 1 centre clearance team). Think we’ll be impossible to beat next year if we get our defending in the forward 50 and mids right.