IS INSIDE 50 DOMINANCE A STRATEGY TO EXPLOIT?
In 2013, on 13 July, Geelong beat Melbourne in the inside 50 count by (70-19)1. Geelong also easily won the game.
This hurt and embarrassed Melbourne. But Melbourne learnt a lot from this.
Fast forward to 7 September 2018, Elimination Final, Melbourne v Geelong. Melbourne dominated with a +17 inside 50 count2. Melbourne famously won the game.
This famous victory of Melbourne over Geelong in the 2018 Elimination Final inflicted hurt and embarrassment on Geelong. Good. GO DEES! But Geelong also took some learning from this...
Yesterday (Saturday 30 March 2019) at Kardinia Park, Melbourne again smashed Geelong in the inside 50 count by (72-48), but this time, Melbourne staggeringly, lost the game by 80 points.
The Melbourne Football Club is again hurting and the learning necessarily continues. These are not isolated incidents and Melbourne has lost other recent games after regularly dominating the inside 50 count. These losses whilst dominating the inside 50 count need examination.
Melbourne’s conundrum of yesterday is not isolated: Gold Coast also smashed West Coast yesterday in the inside 50 count (62-46) but Gold Coast lost the game by 52 points.
How can AFL football sides be so dominant in the inside 50 count and still lose?
Simon Goodwin touched on this regarding what the MFC needs to do to address this in his press conference yesterday after the game:
We had 72 entries which is a lot, and we need to connect better forward of centre. We need to win more contests ahead of the ball. We need need to move the ball better in a way that's going to connect better to maximise those entries.
These are astute observations, as usual, from Goodwin. However, Jude Bolton focussed the attention on how Geelong used Melbourne’s inside 50 dominance to their advantage:
The ability of the Cats midfielders to spread and get on the outside and really start to pick away this Demon’s outfit particularly off the half backline - I thought they were able to stymie any offence moving forward and then just cut them on the way back3
Leigh Matthews was even more specific:
If the ball is locked in the 50 metre line for a while you might get a crumb and goal. But basically its hard to set up goals actually if the defence is set. So basically the best way to score is to allow the opposition to go into the backline, do this, mark it and run it out of defence whilst the opposition is out of position.4
Matthew’s comments in this particular case align with some of my ideas.
Anyway, I was there at Kardinia Park yesterday. I saw it all with my many vocal and supportive fellow Melbourne supporters under the rain on seats adjacent to the half forward flank. The game was a spectacle of Melbourne’s 72 (or was it 73) forward 50 entries mostly repelled by a Geelong defence well prepared to do so. Geelong then took full advantage of an open football field and their players were regularly well organised and able to receive so many uncontested possessions on the way to link possessions on the way to far too many easy goals. This was extremely frustrating to witness.
A rare highlight was the unforgettable moment of 1st gamer Jay Lockhart and his brilliant 1st AFL goal (You Byooty!) in the 1st quarter which put us in front and raised us to our feet, elicited a grand collective yell of celebration and engendered a real sense of belief. Long may Lockhart prosper with the MFC!
I also feel it necessary to say that you cannot doubt the collective Melbourne players effort yesterday. They were as usual voraciously fierce at the contest and delivered the ball to the forward line on an excitingly regular occasion. I think the reason goals were not scored once the ball was in the forward 50 line was less a matter of effort and more a matter of strategy.
Sun Tzu (in “The Art of War”) said:
Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.5
Geelong may or may not have used this Tzu strategy, but they certainly prepared a defence accepting Melbourne’s forward 50 strength, and allowed Melbourne to deliver the ball into their defensive 50 knowing that defending that area was Melbourne’s strength and carefully prepared for multiple counter attacks in open spaces once Melbourne made mistakes.
Will Tzu provide the MFC strategists with some new and helpful ideas?
It’s only round 2, but maybe these ideas will help the Melbourne Football club to continue its climb and improve again this year as it has done for the last 5 years.
GO DEES!
References:
1. http://sit.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2013/07/13/369199_gfc.html
2. http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24601335/afl-melbourne-demons-vs-geelong-cats-there-no-finals-demons-melbourne
3. “Game Day” broadcast on HSV7 television, Sunday 31 March
4. “Game Day” broadcast on HSV7 television, Sunday 31 March
5. Sun Tzu, c. 512 BC “The Art of War”