titan_uranus

The truth lies somewhere in between, doesn't it? Yes, he's got a role to play that isn't just him kicking bags, yes, as part of our gameplan we need him bringing the ball to ground and he's doing that and yes, he is regularly competing with multiple defenders hanging off him. Agree with all that. Also agree with his work-rate. At the gorund you can see how But also, he is dropping non-pack marks under less pressure, and he's being outworked in one-on-one contests too often. And he's missing set shots that he used to never miss. And he's burning team-mates by snapping shots when he could be passing. He's not "cooked" as some have suggested, but he's also not going as well as your post suggests IMO.

I didn't see anything from the game to suggest to me that M Brown is a better ruck option than Weideman. If both Gawn and Jackson are right to come in, M Brown is the first out. Then the question is whether we go back to having the additional tall, which is what we had prior to the bye (Bedford presumably misses, which is harsh, but would be done for structural reasons), or we continue to play with one fewer tall, in which case it's likely Weideman who makes way. I'll be interested to see which way we lean with Geelong - do we want height in our forward line to avoid them intercept marking against us too much, or do we want pace to see if we can pressure them and out-run them when it hits the deck.

Oh, and can we just have a moment to marvel at the latest AFL MRO/Tribunal disgrace. Tom Stewart runs past the ball and KOs Prestia. That's "careless". Kozzie Pickett poorly executed a tackle. That's "intentional". (FWIW, I have no problem with Pickett being cited for what he did, but it was careless in the truest sense of the word).

Yes, the umpiring was noticeable given we only received 3 free kicks in 3 quarters. But can we talk about how we ground down and overcame some high level pressure, possibly Adelaide's best all year, in hostile territory after conceding the lead late in the second quarter? All without Gawn, Jackson and TMac? It's easy to look at Adelaide's ladder position and think this should have been routine, and the way the first five minutes unfolded that's what I thought it was going to be. But they brought really clear heat and made us work for everything. The more games we get into the current back seven, with Hibberd and Salem still needing to find their feet a bit, the better we are going to get. 30 intercept marks is huge. As for the forward line, 24 scoring shots and nearly 100 points in a game where no forward was really all that dominant. Still too many errant inside 50 kicks and missed shots on goal, so there remains room for improvement.

They kicked 10 against North, who decided to play their best defender at FF for reasons which make no sense to anyone. If I were an Adelaide supporter I'd be very worried if anyone was getting this far ahead of themselves off the back of the easiest possible game a key forward could have played on the weekend.

If we play each game from here like we did on Thursday we're a more than reasonable chance of running the table. We were that good. But it's near-certain we won't reach that level for two consecutive months. We'll have drop offs. And because our fixture is so hard, we're going to drop games as a result. Prognosticating over the make-up of the top 8, top 4 and top 2 is fun, but so hard this year because the outcome will be determined by the sides we drop games to. If we go 6-2 but drop, for example, the Geelong and Brisbane games, that might see either of those sides sit above us on the ladder by the end of the season, but see us above Fremantle and Carlton. And vice versa if we go 6-2 but drop the Fremantle and Carlton games instead. With our fixture, at least we know our destiny is largely in our hands. Beat the sides around us and we go along way, if not the entire way, to finishing above them on the ladder.

I would call the three of you out for your inherent sexism here but I'm sure you'll just respond by telling me you're not sexist and you just don't like Caro. Of course, I'd rate the chances of you using these words to describe a male journalist at 0.5%.

I don’t agree at all with the OP, or his ongoing vendetta against Caro. But even if I did, mods do we need yet another thread on this? Far out.

Yep, and Fritsch did it again in the third when he tried to dribble a goal from the boundary instead of centring it. Fritsch, Brown and (not last night) Trac all have a selfish tendency around goals that they haven't seemed to be able to stamp out.

Excellent crowd last night. 17,000 more than Richmond drew to its Thursday night game vs Port despite having double the members and not having lost three prior games going in. A H&A record for the two clubs. Also was more than: Bulldogs v Geelong on a Friday night in Round 12 at Marvel Sydney v Richmond on a Friday night in Round 11 St Kilda v Essendon, last Friday night

I don't at all see the need to drop Bowey. We performed superbly last night, let's leave them and see if they can generate consistency into next week and then Geelong the week after. The only major consideration is to ensure we're OK for the 5-day break going into the Geelong game. For that reason alone, Gawn shouldn't play this week. Skip the Adelaide game, ensure he's fully fit, then return for Geelong. He was much better last night. Yes, Andrews took a number of intercept marks, but at the game Brown's leading and work-rate looked much better than in the month before the bye. He also got us into the game in the first half when the game was at its hottest. Tomlinson hasn't played forward since he joined us and won't be an improvement on Brown in anyway.

6 - Viney 5 - Lever 4 - Oliver 3 - Jordon 2 - Harmes 1 - Brayshaw

Exceptional football. Clearly the best we've played since the Grand Final. Should have won by 80+ points against the top side. Yes they were missing Bailey and Zorko, but it's not like Gawn and TMac are bit players either. The clear stand out IMO was the intensity. CP dominance, clearance dominance, forward half pressure, tackle pressure everywhere. We haven't played with that level of ferocity much in 2022 but when we bring it, we really [censored] bring it. Led superbly by Viney, who played one of his all time best career games. Forward half worked so much better as a unit tonight. Small things like Weideman blocking for Brown and crumbers in the right spots in front of the marking forwards. Don't know if it's a coincidence, it probably isn't, but Lever's game was phenomenal, against the highest-scoring side in the competition to boot. Petracca also lifted so our A-grade core was largely on song tonight (Langdon still has room to improve). Weidemand deserves credit. He wasn't dominant but he put his body on the line in the ruck and in marking contests and I thought really applied himself well. Let's see if this is a corner turned. Big games coming up on the road but when we play like this, we are scintillating.

Fair enough changes, it's not like M Brown was doing anything to hold his spot and there's no other tall forward we could play in his place, so we're going smaller. Major pressure on B Brown, Weid when forward, Jackson when forward and Fritsch to create genuine marking contests. When Weid's rucking, we'd better have a reasonable plan for what we're going to be doing with our inside 50s because we can't have Andrews and Adams intercept marking our attempts to kick to a double-teamed B Brown. Would like to see Hunt or Tomlinson the sub for some positional versatility. To be fair, both B Brown and Weid need to stand up, and both B Brown and Weid need to play their role. Third: Andrews and Adams are their two key defenders.

As is always the case with CD's ratings, whatever they use to measure "elite-ness" isn't worth worrying about given the results it produces. No Gawn or May, clearly issues from an MFC perspective. But also no Weitering, which means the two key defenders widely considered AA locks aren't there, but instead we have Sicily, McGovern and Isaac Cumming. For wings, no Langdon or McCluggage, but Marlion Pickett and Harry Perryman instead. For key forwards, no Curnow or McKay, but Taylor Walker who missed a month of footy is there. For mids, no Andrew Brayshaw or Callum Mills, but George Hewett gets in. Just odd.

It's becoming increasingly clear from Twitter, forums, radio talkback and the comments on news articles (yes, I know, not exactly scientific research) that there are a number of key reasons why attendances are down: It's expensive It is a significant time commitment and that's before you add in a long commute for many Night games are not as easy to attend for many as day games are, and there are more night games now than ever before Public transport can be difficult and slow People have COVID/the flu/the cold and aren't going anywhere because they're sick People don't want to get COVID/the flu/the cold and won't go anywhere as a result During 2020-2021 people bought Kayo to watch football, haven't gotten rid of it post-lockdown, and now that they have it they can watch every game live and without ads, whereas prior to 2020 they didn't have Foxtel and so could only stay home if their team was on FTA COVID disrupted our routines and for some, they have questioned why they went to the football each and every week religiously and/or simply cannot get back into that routine For some, the game isn't as enjoyable as it has been in the past Digital ticketing is annoying and not user-friendly in many instances It's a multi-faceted issue and the AFL won't fix it with just one or two changes: so, bringing back paper tickets might help a little, but probably not a lot. FWIW I think the cultural change brought about by the lockdowns, coupled with the ability for people to watch games via Kayo for a lot less money than it used to cost in the old Foxtel method prior to 2020, is the most significant reason crowds are down. I also think the AFL's view on what it takes to attract fans to stadiums is the polar opposite of what actually attracts fans to stadiums: no one is going to listen to loud music blare between goals, or for "fan activations" on the ground during breaks.

Two more Friday nights is good news for us, particularly with one being our home game against Collingwood. Fingers crossed both clubs are still going strong by then as that could be a great windfall for us, ratings-wise at least, if not also attendance. Would have been great to get the Carlton game on Friday night too, but wasn't possible with the three Marvel games. We're a good chance to be the Friday night game in Round 23 too. Carlton v Collingwood is another huge game but Collingwood is on the Sunday the previous week and has already had a 5-day break this year, so I don't think they can have another one and therefore that can't be the Friday night. Ditto Essendon v Richmond, as Richmond's already had a 5-day break and is on the Sunday in Round 22. If that happens we'll end the season with four Friday night games (two home) and three Thursday night games (one home), plus ANZAC Eve (away) and Queen's Birthday (away). Good exposure from a ratings perspective, even if many were away games. Attendance-wise, we end the year with only one single home game in Melbourne in the day: Round 8 vs St Kilda, which was a Sunday 1.10pm start. We had two Saturday twilight home games, and one home game in Alice Springs to come, but the other 7 home games were all night games (Dogs, Essendon, GWS, Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood, Carlton).

The conservative, and likely, changes are May for Turner and Weideman for Gawn. The issue with those changes is that it means we go in with B Brown, M Brown and Weideman, who at times are all going to be in the same forward line, which inspires zero confidence. An option is to drop M Brown, who hasn't done much if anything in the seniors to warrant retaining his spot, and replacing him with a small (e.g. Bedford, Melksham), or perhaps using Petracca more as a forward with, for example, Jordon getting more midfield time, Brayshaw going back to the wing, and Hunt coming back into the backline. But if we drop M Brown, there will be periods of the game where Weid's rucking and Jackson's on the bench, and we'll be down to B Brown only. This all goes to show how valuable Gawn is beyond simple ruck craft.

For pure attendance reasons, I hope the Carlton and Collingwood games are Saturday 1.45pm or 2.10pm starts, or Sunday 3.20pm starts. For commercial reasons, I'd want at least one to be a Friday or Saturday night, and I'd want Round 23 vs Brisbane to be a Friday night as well. The last time we had a "normal" fixture, in 2019, the final rounds had the following games: Carlton v St Kilda in Round 22 at the G was a Saturday 1.45pm game and drew nearly 52,000 (neither side was in finals contention) Richmond v West Coast in Round 22 at the G was a Sunday 1.10pm game and drew 57,000+ (flag favourite vs reigning premier and 3rd on the ladder) Richmond v Brisbane in Round 23 at the G was a Sunday 3.20pm game and drew 76,000+ (flag favourite vs 1st on the ladder)

We already have one of those forwards, Ben Brown. We can't play two key forwards who disappear for long periods of the game. Ben Brown at least hit the scoreboard on the weekend. Mitch Brown, regrettably, has struggled in both his games so far.

Be as pessimistic now as you want, be as critical of our poor form now as you want, but FFS don't give me this revisionist [censored]. I cannot stand it. We didn't "fluke" the flag. For one, no one has ever fluked a flag and no one ever will, because it's not possible to do so. But regardless, we finished the H&A season 17-1-4 with a percentage of 130.8%, having beaten every side except Collingwood, including Port Adelaide (2nd) away, Geelong (3rd) away, Brisbane (4th) on neutral territory and the Dogs (5th) at Marvel, and we led the league in all relevant defensive metrics throughout the season. We could hardly have been more dominant in 2021. Our finals campaign didn't come from nowhere, it came from a H&A season of hard work and capped off the year.

As always on Demonland, people look for one answer or one issue, when the reality is that things are not that straightforward. I'd suggest the following are all factors: mid-game injuries which throw our balance - May, Petracca and Petty against Fremantle, then Turner, Gawn and Petty against Collingwood; too many issues in our back half - no May, Petty playing half-injured, Lever, Hunt and Rivers all out of form, Hibberd and Salem working back into AFL-level fitness; too many issues with our marking forwards - no TMac, B Brown out of form, M Brown not good enough, Weideman a mix of out of form and/or not good enough; not enough pressure being applied in the forward half, giving our opponent the ease of moving the ball through the corridor; too many turnovers, particularly when trying to deliver the ball inside 50. We fixed some of the above mid-season last year (the last three, for example). But we didn't have to deal with the first two of those issues last year. The two most disappointing features over the losses have been watching a 20+ point lead disappear, too easily, all three times, and our inability to cover our missing players. I'm disappointed that May not playing has been as impactful as it has been, and ditto TMac. I believe we can turn around our issues, because we by and large faced the same issues last year and turned it around. But this time we don't have a soft fixture patch to get going like we did last year (we had GC, West Coast and Adelaide in Rounds 20-22, which led into the Geelong game and finals). We're going to have to find our form pretty quickly against top 8 sides because that's what our fixture presents us. It's not going to be easy, and right now I don't think you can criticise anyone who thinks top 4 is a longshot.

A winning score for us doesn't mean we score heavily. I'm equally interested in whether, without May, we can keep Collingwood to a score we can beat. We failed to do that against Fremantle (94). Sydney only had one fewer scoring shot but were inaccurate and so only scored 73, which is a beatable score even without a forward kicking a bag.

We'd be out-marked repeatedly in our forward line, leading to no crumbing opportunities, and you'd then write Bedford off for failing to impact the game. Meanwhile either Gawn would be rucked into the ground, or we'd be even shorter and less likely to take a forward 50 mark if we moved Jackson into the ruck when resting Gawn.

Don't worry, Geelong can't pass us next week even if we lose - they're 8-4, so the best they can get to is 9-4, we'd be 10-3 with a loss. Brisbane and Fremantle haven't had their byes either, so they can't pass us if we end tonight on top. The only side who could theoretically pass us is Carlton, who are 9-3 having had their bye. They are currently 31.3% behind us though, and play Richmond next week. If we lose, but we don't shed 7% and therefore stay above Brisbane, it's highly likely we finish next week on top. But, as I think Carlton would be favourites to beat Richmond, if we lose today there is every chance at the end of next week the top 4 are all on 10-3. And, given Geelong has West Coast, St Kilda has Essendon and Sydney has Port, there's a fair chance 5-7 on the ladder will all be just one game behind. Which will mean, despite starting 10-0 and having a two game lead on 2nd, we could by the end of next week be one game out of 7th.