titan_uranus

I think it’s fair to give credit to Smith for being part of the first quarter dam wall, but not at all fair to suggest he would have made a difference in the last quarter burst which was entirely on our midfield for letting them come out the front of stoppage far too easily.

No way known we are making this seismic of a change this late. The synergy we have between May and Lever and the way we set up our entire side from the backline is nowhere near easily replaceable. We are going to have to persist with Grundy, TMac, Brown if fit, or Schache, until Fritsch comes back and we can then try to manufacture enough marks with him as the second tall.

Those disposal figures differ greatly from the AFL Live app for Dunstan (app says 31) and Harmes (app says 25).

We may replace Jordon with a non-mid but if we wanted another mid (and I’m of the view our midfield depth is too thin compared to our competitors) surely Dunstan is doing everything we’ve been asking of him. 31 disposals, 7 tackles and a goal to 3QT is a fair effort, although admittedly I’m not watching and therefore have no insight into quality of his disposals or the impact they’re having.

Dunstan’s stats line looks impressive. Any chance next week?

I understand what people mean by this (their pressure almost literally can’t be higher than that). But they have Walsh, Cerra, McGovern, Kennedy, McKay and McGovern out, some/all of whom will be back by finals. They probably can get better.

6 - Viney 5 - Petracca 4 - Brayshaw 3 - May 2 - Lever 1 - Rivers

I think this is an unreasonably high bar. In a competition as even as this year, expecting us to set the running every week against every opponent is too much. It’s understandable and acceptable for us to experience opponents dictating games for periods. They dictated last night for longer than us, so we lost, but that’s what happens when two good sides play.

I’m far from sold that this is the right move. I think Oliver’s return made our mids look off last night as they adjusted but I can’t see how adding another small forward helps any issue we have. Particularly one like Spargo who doesn’t get much ball or hit the scoreboard much.

I don’t agree. I think he looked more of an asset forward. In the backline I just feel he gets lost and that impacts May and Lever’s willingness and ability to zone and cover. I think many call for him to be sub because he can cover for an injured forward or an injured defender. No one else on our list offers that flexibility. Given he had 5 touches in an entire game last night I’m not sure he’s shooting the lights out with full game time such that he necessarily deserves to hold his spot.

We haven’t started a game well for a month, IMO (when we jumped Brisbane). Led Adelaide but they had plenty of territory and shots. Trailed Richmond and were 20 down in the second. Trailed North and were 33 down in the second. Conceded 20 of the first 22 inside 50s to Carlton. Would dearly love a strong start next week as a response.

My bigger fear is missing top 4. I woke hoping my MFCSS would subside but it hasn’t. I’m genuinely concerned we’ll lose to Hawthorn next week and expose ourselves to needing to beat Sydney to avoid slipping out of the top 4 altogether. I think 4th is more likely than 3rd though.

On xScore we should have won, despite their early territory dominance. Also if I’m reading this correctly the QT margin should have been a few points higher than it was on xScore:

You’ve written this like the game played out all like the first quarter. As the game went on we got progressively better at breaking down their defensive wall and pressure. We ended up with more scoring shots, despite their early flood of territory. And in case you missed it, we were the thinnest of margins from winning the game. If the goal umpire had given a soft call of goal, would you still think the mantle had been passed? The game was a strongly contested one between two strongly contested sides. Carlton, as we discussed mid-week, is much better than many have thought. They can win it. But I don’t consider that game signals the end for us. It should, though, be a reminder that we can’t afford lapses (mid-game, or at selection - got to get this Petty-less forward line right ASAP, and I think I agree with you on Grundy).

Not to go all MFCSS on everyone here, but next week is a must-win. Carlton will beat GC. If we lose to Hawthorn, we will be playing Sydney in Sydney for a top 4 spot, as Carlton will pass us if we go 0-2 and they go 2-0. And Sydney is one of the only other sides in as good form as Carlton.

Jordon has to be dropped. A mile off it tonight, sadly. I’m very close to ruling a line through the Gawn/Grundy combo. Is it a coincidence that Gawn had his worst game since Grundy went out and we kicked a low score too? Smith should be the sub or a forward. Hibberd should be a defender or not playing (but not the sub). Major query on Salem but I think we back him to find his form.

It infuriates me that, IIRC, the ARC never appeared to run the side-on and front-on angles together at the same time. Had they done so they would have realised the ball had passed his hand before that moment when they look like they might be touching. Anyway, nothing we can do about it. Need to focus on what is in our control (structure, selection), not what is out of our control.

It 100% wasn’t touched. The angle which looks like his hand touches it is misleading because when you match it up with the side-on angle, the ball is past his hand. He didn’t touch it. It’s eminently arguable we’ve lost a game due to an egregious ARC error. It’s also eminently arguable that we lost because we weren’t good enough for long enough. Smashed at stoppages by a side missing three starting mids. 5 goals from 31 inside 50s in the second half. A number of complete passengers. It’s an easy conclusion to make after one game (and a loss to boot) but I don’t think Grundy forward is going to win us the flag. It just didn’t look right.

I'll fall off my chair if they lose to St Kilda or the Dogs at home. But if they lose even a single game, finals are highly likely over for them. 11.5 won't cut it. They have no choice but to go 2-0.

If Geelong go 2-0 from here they get to 12.5. That means the likes of GWS, St Kilda and the Dogs need to win 2 more games to stay in front of them. Carlton might only need 1 win if they can somehow get their percentage in front. So for St Kilda, factoring in a loss to Geelong, they have to beat Brisbane in Brisbane along with Richmond. Unlikely. That would see Geelong pass St Kilda, which right now is enough to make finals unless a side below them passes them. For sides below them, they all would have to go 3-0 to pass Geelong on 12.5. That requires Sydney to, for example, beat Adelaide in Adelaide and us. Or requires Adelaide to beat Brisbane in Brisbane and Sydney at home. Or requires Essendon to beat North, GWS (away) and Collingwood. So, in short, unless you think Geelong is going to lose to St Kilda or the Dogs at home, they're still odds on to make finals. Sadly.

I’ve noticed the words “contest and defence” have been said by multiple players this week. Was clearly a theme with Goodwin/the coaches.

Carlton had lost their last 4 and looked awful going into that game. Now that they’re good and it’s their home game, the crowd should be much bigger.

I think you mean you couldn’t care less. I’m not sure if ignoring the journos would have helped. After what he copped for the argument with the doctor, imagine if he did a “no comment” or acted like he didn’t want to talk. Just as bad, if not worse.

Except for when we lose, in which case it’s a land of lava, pain and where you can’t say anything positive lest you be called a “happy clapper”.

I agree with you that Carlton are being seriously underrated on here. But I don’t agree with everything in this post. St Kilda’s been out of form since the bye and they struggled to get separation against them for 2.5 quarters. The Saints’ defensive ranking stems from their pre-bye form (North scored 34 and the Dogs 41 which skews their points against total a bit too). Jack Steele’s 2023 form is a shadow of his 2020-22 form, too. And I don’t think Tom De Koning is “smashing” into anyone (North played two much bigger rucks this weekend and Gawn had no issues from a physicality perspective). Clearly though they play a brand of football that stacks up. They have talent on every line and as you say, McKay out has forced them to think about their forward line (a bit like Fristch out for us I think) and they’re finding new ways to score. My principal concern is their backline - we have to neutralise the air and without Petty, I fear that is going to be a big task.