titan_uranus

That's (at least?) the third time this year we've lost despite leading at three quarter time (WC twice, Adelaide). The disappointment is that taking just one or two of those chances and going on to win would give us some of the confidence we are clearly lacking. Would obviously also have us out of the bottom 2. We're not as far off the top 8 as a 5-12 record and 17th place on the ladder would suggest. The problem is, neither are most other sides. It's an even comp, and we've made so many mistakes that 16 other sides have been able to muster a better record. Still too many turnovers, still too many players taking the wrong option in the forward half, still too many easy shots on goal being missed, still too many defenders who haven't played with each another enough. Preuss and ANB should be in the VFL (Preuss seems to be the opposite of a whipping boy - getting plaudits for doing absolutely zero on the back of the fact that, what, he's got a big body?). Fritsch is a forward, I hope we keep it that way. I remain confident that we're not as far off turning this around as many others think, but I'm increasingly frustrated at the same mistakes being shown each week.

I hope the people who got stuck into May at various times this year (particularly the pub beer moment), or whinged about the Hogan-May trade, read this article and reflect on their positions.

IMO, the severity of our crash (i.e. our ladder position) doesn't align with our overall form/performances. Since ANZAC Eve we're 4-6 and those 6 losses included Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane and the Dogs (i.e. games that we had the lead for significant periods of time). Our season was shot early (and I'm not trying to pin that all to injuries/the pre-season), but over the last 10 weeks my view is that our form has been mid-table average, not bottom-2 rubbish. Just my opinion, others will disagree.

What a thread.

Just out of interest, what were you expecting?

I was at the Richmond game today. A few things I noticed that stand out when watching sides other than us: Their forwards held marks so much more often than ours do. Whether it was across half-back when trying to clear their defensive 50, or in the forward 50 when it was congested, they had Lynch and Riewoldt (amongst others) actually clunking marks They also generally kept one or two forwards deep, generally having someone forward of the play all the time and allowing them to have someone leading up at the ball carrier With those leads and marking forwards, even when the ball wasn't marked when it hit the ground there was immediate pressure through the middle Their mids, when getting their hands on the ball, took a couple of steps from the contest before kicking

The same people get [censored] off when posters say it's all 186 or the 87 prelim, without even for a second explaining how those events are causing the current problem. Even your sentence of "history repeats. Culture lingers" doesn't explain how what the club did in 1987 or 2011 is impacting on what's going on right now. Until this year we had five consecutive years of improvement in a W-L sense. You started a thread about the embarrassing records we were setting in the 2007-2013 period and we knocked almost all of them off. We made finals, we won two of them, we cracked 50,000 members. Then 2019 happened, and it has been a disaster on almost every front. But 2019 on its own is not enough evidence for me to think we've "regressed" to a point that connects the 2019 MFC to the 2011 MFC, for example. There are well documented and recent examples of clubs building, hitting their straps, but then taking a step or two back (Geelong 2006, Richmond 2016. Even Hawthorn 2009 and the Dogs 2017-18, although it mattered a lot less for them given their early flag wins). I don't agree with anyone who says we're a lock to be good again in 2020. But for the same reason (it's impossible to say until we hit 2020 and see what happens), I don't agree with people who say we're back to square one or that this year has seen us regress back to the "old MFC".

As I said in another thread, have a look at who our forward line was on the weekend: Petty, Lockhart, Dunkley, Fritsch, Hunt, ANB, Petracca. Of those, only two would have been in our first choice forward line over the pre-season, and of those two one (ANB) has always had a problem of struggling when the rest of the side is down. Of the rest, two weren't even on the list for the pre-season, one has been mis-managed in terms of being asked to play too many positions in his first two seasons, and one was groomed as a defender. In form and available forwards have been non-existent for us this year. That's a combination of injuries, but also shifting responsibility (e.g. TMac and Weideman) and increased expectation (e.g. Spargo and ANB). But I've said a couple of times now that I don't think we're that far off turning it around, and this statistic (inside 50 retention/scoring) is the one thing that is holding us back more than anything else. We developed our list and gameplan around dominating in the middle and creating significant amount of ball in our forward half. That sort of gameplan just does not work unless we hold marks inside 50, and unleash pressure through our forward half. We've done neither of those this year. TMac and Weideman have struggled to hold marks and we haven't had a proper third tall (J Smith could have played that role, T Smith is just a VFL battler, vandenBerg hasn't played, Petracca is being asked to do too much and isn't always succeeding, Melksham is injured, Fritsch has been in the backline). And with stacks of ball hitting the ground, we haven't been able to lock it in. Spargo and ANB have gone backwards from last year (in Spargo's case significantly), Hunt is just OK but exhausts himself too often, Hannan's struggled when fit, again no vandenBerg hurts, and our midfielders aren't two-way running and putting in enough defensive effort. Without marking and forward pressure, the ball rebounds out of our forward half with ease and our backline gets put under inordinate pressure. Then strip that backline of May, Lever and Jetta, take Hibberd and Salem out for periods, put an out-of-form OMac in there and a first year player in Hore, and here we are at 5-11. My view remains that if we improve our forward pressure and hold some more marks inside 50, our overall performance will lift significantly.

If that's your standard then we have one of those wins this year - Fremantle. And as to your second line, what about Collingwood last year, who finished the H&A season with one win over last year's finalists (us)?

Nup, not any more. I reckon he's worked much harder this year to develop consistency in his game. If I have concerns over our young mids, it's over Oliver, Harmes and Brayshaw. I don't see enough defensive running from any of them (Oliver in particular). I don't see enough buckling down when the going gets tough. I don't see enough leadership. I see too much sulking, too much poor body language and too much selfishness from each of them. All fixable things, and if we're going to go anywhere as a club then these three need to learn from their flaws.

The disappointment I feel with the game comes from seeing the same mistakes being made. We were dominant in the second quarter but didn't put it on the scoreboard. We generated plenty of time inside our forward half/50 but didn't score. But we played with a makeshift forward line (none of Petty, Hunt, Preuss, Lockhart or Dunkley were in our plans for our 2019 forward line during the pre-season, I doubt Fritsch was either, but here we are. I mean, Lockhart and Dunkley weren't even on our list!) and we played with two underdone defenders (Lever, Jetta). My view has been that if anyone is borderline on fitness we shouldn't be playing them in this long-dead season, but I want to see us keep Lever and Jetta in the side to get our best backline working together and using these last 6 games to gel. Our big problem is our forward line though. Not enough pressure, too many out of form/low on confidence players, it's all just not working. Petty was promising and Fritsch is a better forward than he is a defender/wing, but my view is that if we don't markedly lift our defensive pressure in our forward half, we aren't going to improve. Conversely, upgrading out defensive pressure in our forward half will make significant difference given the rest of our gameplan.

Watched from just after Lloyd's two goals. We're doing better than this thread suggests but still not great. Massive amount of ball in our forward half but continued poor kicking inside, dropped marks, poor positioning, mistakes (e.g. Brayshaw's lack of awareness) are killing us. Dominating through the middle though and their last goal was just an appalling free kick against Gawn. I reckon many on here are over-rating Preuss. Maybe his shoulder is sore but his tapwork is nothing special, and when it hits the ground he's a liability at the moment.

He's certainly talented and capable of tearing us apart, but consistency is not his thing. He's kicked 22 goals but 9 of those have been in two games (5 when he ripped Richmond to shreds, 4 last week vs Geelong) meaning 13 in the other 12 games. He'd only kicked 4 goals in the previous 6 games before last week. We have to back May in to be able to stop him.

Enjoying the debate in here about the issues between our mids and forwards. IMO it's a combination of weaknesses in both areas. I think our mids are doing a lot right, and certainly a lot right in terms of the way Goodwin has trained us to play, but we still have a number of mids who make bad mistakes by foot when trying to kick inside 50 - Viney is too up-and-under with his kicks, under pressure Oliver goes for distance, Brayshaw is unreliable (but to be commended for at least going onto his non-preferred). Early-season we had a team-wide problem of failing to lower our eyes as well, just sending it as deep as possible. However, I think some (but not all) of these issues are caused or exacerbated by the forwards all being down on 2018 levels of output. There's less confidence, less leading up at the ball carrier, too many leads to the pockets, and a lack of marking form (TMac, Weideman and Hannan all worse than last year and obviously no Hogan). And then, possibly the biggest problem, is the lack of pressure when it hits the ground. All year it's been too easy for our opponents to rebound out of our forward 50 - Spargo and ANB nowhere near where they were last year, Garlett not consistently defending when he was in the side, the talls who have been down there (TMac, Weid, Preuss, T Smith, Keilty) all struggling with their defensive pressure in various ways. My view is that some incremental improvements in these areas can lead to drastic improvements in our form - even like 25% more defensive pressure is going to prevent a number of the rebounds out of our forward 50, we'll generate more scores when we go inside, the game will be played more in our forward half, all of that will lead to confidence building from our mids and forwards and it spirals from there (just as it has spiralled the other way this year). But that 25% improvement won't come without hard work, better coaching and targeted list improvements over the off-season.

Petty if we have to. We need to be getting games into May, Frost and Lever (along with Hibberd, Jetta and Salem, and Hore if/when we can) as a defensive unit.

Hoping to see Petracca, ANB, Dunkkley and Lockhart on the bench (with Petty making way and joining OMac and the Wagners as emergencies). Just not sure we need May, Frost, Lever and Petty in the side, let alone against the Dogs (and certainly not OMac on top of that).

Agree with the OP. We haven't had too many players who have improved on last year but I think Petracca is one. For someone who is such a confidence player, I would love to see him fix up his goal kicking technique. The effect of nailing easy shots (or more importantly not having the deflation of missing easy shots) could be quite significant for him.

Ah, that is indeed correct. Point still stands, just minus the Judd-robot thing.

Also, on the topic of over-celebrating, just have a think about how the players would have felt in that moment when the siren went. They were spent. They had been working as hard as they could, with almost no rest, to try to hold on and prevent a loss which would have opened up so much criticism (given how much they're copping despite winning, imagine what they would have been thinking about the ramifications of a loss). So the siren goes and their natural reaction is to be happy. FFS. In the heat of the moment, sometimes humans exhibit emotions. In this instance it was 100% justifiable.

You're making my point, Jaded. It's not criticism of our 2019 season that I'm finding it difficult to read - the season has been disastrous and we have a number of lessons to learn, and beating Carlton doesn't necessarily mean we've learnt them. What I'm finding increasingly frustrating on Demonland is the unnecessary pessimism and the inability to enjoy positive moments when they arise, even where in context they do not change the season. So saying I am on a "high horse" because I "can't handle anyone mentioning negatives" is both inaccurate and OTT. Saying things like we wouldn't have been 6 goals up against Collingwood or Richmond is irrelevant - we didn't play Collingwood or Richmond, we played Carlton. Dismissing the rotations issue (which is what you've been doing) ignores the reality of it. In the first half we had 42 rotations and Carlton 44. In the second half we had 25 rotations and Carlton had 44. In the fourth quarter it was 6 to 18. We should have been 10 goals up in the third quarter and the fact we weren't was indicative of the ongoing problems we have had all year, and last year. But holding on against a fast-finishing side when we're out on our feet is something to be happy with regardless. The frustration arises when posters either can't, or don't want to, see the positives and just want to talk about the failures. I haven't seen the full game so I can't be sure, but based on what I've seen/read and the stats, is this completely true though? Or: I had been leaning towards this, based on what I've seen/read so far. Our kick-handball ratio was 221-151, or 1.46. Against Brisbane it was 217-186, or 1.16. Fremantle was 237-150, or 1.58. I wonder whether post-bye we have tried to kick-mark more than pre-bye, and when it has worked (Fremantle and Carlton) we have played more controlled football and performed better as a result, but against Brisbane we went away from that and struggled as a result. This is obviously too simplistic an analysis, but I'm not sure @stevethemanjordan is 100% on the money about how we played vs Carlton (although there remain problems with our entries and our forward line in general).

This is the sort of OTT pessimistic stuff that infects this site. You've just chucked the "with limited rotations" bit in there without thinking about what it means. For the first three quarters we built a 6 goal lead. Then the bloke who had kicked 6 goals in three quarters went off, we had one rotation for a quarter, and you're upset that our lead got eroded? We'll never know what would have happened without the injuries but when the numbers were even we were 6 goals better. As to their "top 3 players", they won interstate last week with the same players missing so it's not like they've fallen apart without Cripps. Curnow and Mackay have each played maybe 3-4 good games this year. And it's not like we were at full strength. But it's the sarcastic comment about being thrilled to be 16th that gets me most. If you want to be gloomy, fine. But the fact that some people have enjoyed today's win in the context of the season doesn't mean we're happy that in 2019, after the progress of 2014-2018, we're happy to be third bottom.

Gawn to replace TMac is probably fine, although we don't want to be too tall at Marvel against the Dogs. I can't see a good argument for OMac getting Petty's spot, the more so if Lever comes in for Hore. I'd like more run, whether that's JKH or J Wagner.

I haven't seen the game, but I don't need to have seen it to have known this would be how this thread would go. This was a lose-lose game for us. A thrashing would have resulted in "where has that been all year" and/or "it was only Carlton less Cripps/Curnow/Mackay/Docherty". A comeback would have been "we were lucky" or "they stopped" or "it was only Carlton less Cripps/Curnow/Mackay/Docherty". A loss would have been, well, obvious. Reality is we were a side without Gawn, Lever, Melksham, Jetta, down to one player on the bench (including Fritsch who was dominating until injured, and TMac, also dominating until injured) up against a side in their season-best form, coming off a win in Perth without any of the aforementioned missing players, having three times this year taken the lead after being 6 goals down. I'm certain we made horrendous mistakes like we've been seeing all year, and I'm confident based on the statistical dominance and how 2019 has gone so far that we should have been far more than 30 points up at three quarter time, but is it really any surprise that they fought back in the last given the above? I'm far more interested in seeing TMac come back to form (the injury is just awful news), our midfield stand up despite no Gawn, Preuss do his role well, and the defence settle despite losing Hore early. I'm looking forward to watching the replay, errors and all, because FFS we've only won 5 games this year so at least enjoy the ones we get when we get them.

You spent all of 2017, and probably more, talking about "turning a corner". If we had made finals for three years but failed to win one, you'd have gone on and on about how we'd "failed to turn a corner". But when another club does it, it's a significant achievement. They traded out one player of note (Deledio) and brought in three key players from other clubs (Caddy, Prestia, Nankervis). Then they went to the draft. That is not a rebuild. That is making strategic changes to improve a list. Saying "they completely changed their approach to their list" is ridiculous. They did what any club which had made finals for three years but then flopped for one year would do. They made strategic changes to their list, designed to improve them in the areas that 2016 had exposed as weaknesses. That is (amongst other things) exactly what we need to do, but it is not a rebuild.

I accept that. If we had had a perfect pre-season, we'd be doing far better than we are right now, but we'd still have problems. And I want the club to look at more than just having a better 2019/20 pre-season.