titan_uranus

Couldn’t be playing worse. We look slow, tired, unstructured, unskilled. Everything we haven’t been this season. +4 inside 50s but three goals down. Kicking it to Moore isn’t helping but that’s in part because Weideman is just so far off it he’s not worth aiming for. So many of their goals have come from our forward half turnovers. About the only positive is that we’re only 16 points down. We’ve flipped switches a number of times this year. Let’s hope we can again, because we’re sure as hell not winning this the way we’re playing so far.

On any measurement we should win this game by a solid amount, but I doubt it will be a smashing: Collingwood's biggest losing margin this year is 30 (vs GWS and Sydney). They can defend reasonably well but they really struggle to score. Even last week when they won, they only scored 78, and they were super accurate with 12.6 to Adelaide's 10.13. They've only scored above 80 three times all year, against weak defensive sides (Carlton, Essendon and North). Against stronger defensive sides they've struggled to score (53 vs the Dogs, 42 vs Sydney, 51 vs Geelong). Elliott and De Goey are dangerous in the forward line but they have to get it there. We know that when we're at least breaking even in the middle, and when our forward half game is on, even the best forward lines struggle to score: the Dogs and Brisbane over the last fortnight are the perfect examples. If we do what we know we can do, there is a comfortable win here for the taking. But the Adelaide game reminds us that if we're off, any side can beat us.

That was the better result for us. The more losses Richmond cop, the better. They have the easier run home compared to West Coast so it's better they stay a notch down. COVID aside, 6 of their last 9 games are at the MCG and the three road trips are GC, Fremantle and GWS. Well they've now played all other top 8 sides for a 1-6 record. They haven't played 9th (Fremantle) and fell over the line against 10th (GWS). So they're 2-6 against the top 10. Their other wins? 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th. It's not about the run home, it's about the double-up matches. Richmond's five double-up matches are St Kilda, Brisbane, Geelong, GWS and Hawthorn. So that's a 2020 GF runner up, prelim finalist and semi finalist, alongside a side many expected to bounce back (GWS) and Hawthorn. Lucky for them St Kilda fell to pieces and GWS remained mediocre. So yes, they only have two other top 8 sides left for the year, but they've played all 7 of us already. Compare that with West Coast or Sydney, who've only had 4 games against top 8 sides so far this year.

Agree. The football Melksham played in 2018 would make us even better than we currently are in 2021. His 45-degree angle field passes from half-back through to half-forward can rip sides open. But he's not getting enough of the ball to make that side of his game stand out, and his defensive efforts just haven't been good enough. I'm happy Sparrow held his spot.

What's with the whole "Clarkson's a genius" thing? Going into that game Sydney had already lost three times to bottom 10 sides. And Hawthorn's side in that game was, on average, older and more experienced than the one we're fielding tomorrow.

Also, number of games remaining vs top 8 sides: Dogs - 5 West Coast - 5 Melbourne - 4 Geelong - 4 Sydney - 3 Brisbane - 3 Port - 3 Richmond - 3

Record vs top 8 sides: Melbourne - 5-0 Geelong - 4-2 Sydney - 3-1 Dogs - 3-2 Brisbane - 2-4 West Coast - 1-2 Port - 1-4 Richmond - 1-5 Richmond is Richmond, so they should always be feared, but they need to prove themselves against top 8 sides in 2021.

That's right. Starting this week vs Collingwood. Sydney's 3-1 against the top 8, but they're now 5-4 against the bottom 10. They also have a great set of double-up games: not one of them is against the top 8 (GWS, GC, Fremantle, Essendon, St Kilda).

This game looks over. Sydney's next four are Port (away), West Coast, the Dogs (away) and GWS (away). They only have three games left for the season at the SCG (given they had one flipped to last week). If they drop those four games, they'll be 8-9. They'll likely win at least one, but this will hurt their top 4 chances.

Would be huge if Hawthorn gets this win. Well to be fair to them, they'e already played six top 8 sides, but yes, after this week they only have two more to come.

You're 100% right, but regrettably it's not exactly how Demonland works though, is it. May was a disaster of a trade decision about two weeks into the 2019 season. At that time Lever was worse.

They beat West Coast the week before Sydney by 97 points and the week after Sydney they beat RIchmond by 11 goals on the MCG. I'm not sure if Geelong would have beat us today, but I know for sure they wouldn't have found it that easy to score in the fourth quarter. Yeah Hawkins is a repeat offender. I'd say Geelong, Richmond and Brisbane. I don't know if Port can match the best teams (they're 1-4 against top 8 sides). Jury's out on the Dogs IMO. But IMO Geelong is the main threat.

Possibly, but how much game time is he getting when the VFL isn't playing and how valuable is it? Last week was maybe justifiable on this ground but we know there's a real chance TMac won't play this week which means a much higher chance of getting a game. Surely if we think B Brown is better, we'd be taking him up to Sydney?

In Geelong though - entirely possible given they're in front of Melbourne on the easing of restrictions. 10 players over 30 in that side though, but many of them have missed games this year so they're not going to all be playing a full season.

Since we beat them Geelong's only lost once and that was to Sydney when they copped a shocking umpiring call late and could/should have won. They still have 5 games at GMHBA. That gets them to 14 wins before their remaining games (although one of the GMHBA games is next week vs the Dogs). Their away games include North, Fremantle and Carlton, so that's 17 wins. They're a big threat to us, and for the flag.

Another Geelong inside 50 where they have three free players. If this were Carlton, the football world would be frothing at the thought of sacking the coach. Inexcusable from a side allegedly in contention for the top 4.

There were FOUR free Geelong players in their forward 50. FOUR. This is bottom 4 defence from Port.

Port kicked all three of those early fourth quarter goals from free kicks. False economy. Port's defence is abysmal, every time Geelong go forward there are loose Cats everywhere. This is pretty much Geelong's best 22 on the park, they're now only missing Cam Guthrie and (arguably) Miers. Hate on them all you want, they are a massive threat. They're only two games behind us and we play them in the last round, so if we lose that we only have one game over them for the rest of the season.

As was the case last week, M Brown is in front of B Brown at the moment, which is really quite interesting. Jackson, Melksham, Rivers and Sparrow are on the bench and therefore in line to be dropped for Langdon. So will be one of Melksham and Sparrow. I know who I'd prefer to be dropped of those two.

Jeepers @Engorged Onion you're clearly a fan of what the Dogs are doing if you've got them only losing one match out of Geelong (in Geelong), West Coast (in Perth), Sydney, us (at the MCG) and Port Adelaide! Having said that, there's not a huge difference between finishing 1st or 2nd, but there is a massive difference between finishing 2nd or 3rd when two of the next three best sides are Brisbane and Port.

M Brown was an emergency last week but B Brown wasn't. With no VFL game since then, will be interesting to see if that changes.

We really do all need to acknowledge that we are having an exceptionally good run on the injury front so far. I'm sure a significant part of that is luck. But I wonder whether any part of it is reward for fitness/planning/training/etc.? Like, for example, are we minimising/avoiding soft tissue injuries by being fitter and by implementing a better medical programme than other clubs? I have no idea and not sure anyone would, just thinking out loud.

I think the AFL is going to want flexibility, but it won't be easy. Unless the Saturday night games qualify to be flexed, you really only get four options (you can't move a Sunday game). If you're moving Saturday night games you're then adjusting a second prime time match and making more difficulty for fans who might plan around that night game. It also won't always work each week - see, for example, this Friday night, which is Sydney v Hawthorn. But there just aren't any other good games other than Port v Geelong on Thursday night.

The article discusses "total averages" for both Rounds 11 and 12 further down. I think what they've done is add up the average viewer figures for all of the games.

Their respective runs home: Dogs: Geelong (in Geelong), West Coast (in Perth), North, Sydney, Gold Coast, Adelaide, us, Essendon, Hawthorn, Port Geelong: Port (in Adelaide), Dogs, Brisbane (in Brisbane), Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle (in Perth), Richmond, North, GWS, St Kilda, us Port: Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney, Hawthorn, us, St Kilda, Collingwood, GWS (away), Adelaide, Carlton, Dogs Brisbane: North, Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond (away), Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Fremantle (in Perth), Collingwood, West Coast. So Brisbane has only three games left against the current top 8, Port has four, Geelong and the Dogs both have five. We have four (Port and West Coast away, Geelong in Geelong and the Dogs). Brisbane's run home is very favourable, with most of its road games being easy (Richmond is its only away game against a top 8 side). Our fate is very much in our hands. The more of those games against the Dogs, Port and Geelong that we win, the harder it gets for them to find the wins elsewhere to pass us. But we're only two games in front of them all, so if we drop those games, we open the door for any slip ups (e.g. losing to West Coast in Perth).