needafullback

You've got to distinguish between centre clearances, where numbers are always even, and clearances from other stoppages around the ground, where generally they are not. For stoppages away from the centre square, we will generally allow the opposition a + 1, while our spare player will be behind the ball. Our wager is that enabling the intercept mark behind the ball will more than make up for any advatnge they get from winning clearance at the stoppage, particularly given the quality we've got in the ruck and around the ball means we think this advantege will be minimised across a game. When we get beaten out of the centre, the explanation has varied, I think. If we're not just getting outplayed there (like last night), the opposition has done their homework and operate on the basis that Gawn and Grundy will win most hitouts, and set up accordingly. I still reckon our rucks should often just belt the ball forward, allowing our mids to swarm in that direction, Clark Keating style.

Nice diagram Elegt. Sounds like too much to ask but we really need two out of three of those other results to go our way. West Coast looks to have 5th spot locked away, and our chances of beating them over there are negligible. We need to finish 7th and play one of the Dogs, Saints or Pies. Arguably there's little point limping into 8th spot, really. Go Suns tomorrow night.

Um, managed to pick that up from the link I posted. I'd wager, still qualifies as obscure

Tom Kavanagh. Left the Demons in 1990, after playing in 2 games for 2 wins. The last of those was against the Eagles at Subiaco, round 8, 1989. We overcame a 14 point deficit at 3/4 time to win by 2 points. Kavanagh kicked a goal. http://demonwiki.org/Tom+Kavanagh

What a great project. Daniel Bell's game v Adelaide, round 10 2007 would also be appreciated when you get the chance.

Players who rely on their spring to take contested marks, like Fritsch and Jeremy Howe, often don't make it as forwards despite seeming to have great potential in attack. For defensive units in modern AFL teams, it's too easy for someone to block their run or get some body on them. Howe takes a lot more marks in defence than he ever did in attack because he doesn't have one or two players devoted to stopping him. Same with Fritsch. In defence, he will often be able to float across packs whereas up forward he would be blocked or knocked off his line. So half back might actually be a better use of Fritsch's marking ability than up forward. I agree with what others have said about it being a better use of his kicking skills aswell. Having said all that, I hope he can sneak forward a few times during games from half back/wing - would be a headache for opposition coaches.

I think that's a very good prediction for selection. I think Sam Frost could excel in this format with his pace and athleticism, and I'd be suprised if we didn't see Oscar Baker get a run. Apart from giving fringe players a go, and building some fitness, I wonder what the coaches would be planning to get out of it?

Great post Key Dee. This is so bleak I hadn't seen the potential for silver lining, but it is there. There was no point making finals if we were still at risk of playing like we did in the first quarter on Saturday. Missing finals is the best way of giving the players the message about the price you pay for those lapses. Hopefully they carry that with them for the pre-season, and for the whole of 2018. We were probably kidding ourselves to think 'what if?' History shows that teams that fall into the 8 with 12 or 13 wins don't threaten. The Dogs last year, even though they finished 7th, still had 15 wins (and a percentage of 115). Saturday's loss, while particularly painful, was just another illustration of a vulnerability which emerged on multiple occasions throughout the year. Deal with it, and we get 15 wins plus and contend. Fail to deal with it, and we needn't bother. Surely they know that now.

The ultimate riposte to that tedious 'going to the snow' nonsense we cop so often. Our club's marketing department should set about mining this for all its worth: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/dees-supporters-are-afls-most-passionate-supporters-study/news-story/0a941fef2e6e555912f1214342a9a6e4 "Far from popular belief that they’d much rather be hitting the slopes than attend a game in the midst of winter, new research has found that Melbourne supporters are more likely to go to the footy than any other team... 48.7 per cent of Dees supporters attended AFL matches, followed by Tigers fans (38.7%) and Giants supporters (37.6%)." Next thing is to get a survey done up at Bulla, find out that it's full of Collingwood and Hawthorn supporters, and publicise this fact

Every now and then, instruct Gawny to thump it out of the centre bounce straight toward goal. Get CHF out of the way and get all of the inside mids to run at it like rugby forwards. Sometimes there's something to be said for just getting the ball going your way. If the opposition picks it up we should have plenty of tacklers. Get the outside or goal kicking type mids and half backs (Brayshaw/Hunt/Melksham types) to run wide to receive the handball and take shot at goal. Think Clark Keating and the Brisbane midfield. The game's probably past the use of this tactic regularly, but I doubt it should be forever forgotten.

In case you're not being facetious, I was alluding to the 2009 Grand Final. The stats might jog your memory somewhat, but it's what happened in the key moments that really matters.

This discussion reminds me of a recent conversation I was having with someone who had sat on a selection committee to pick a grand final side. This person was himself a four time premiership player. In the argument over the last player selected, who was skillful but of questionable hardness, he said he didn't want him in the side, because on Saturday there will come a moment - just one - where we need him to go and he won't, and that's enough. I've watched enough finals football to know that this philosophy is correct. Who do you want in your forward line - Stephen Milne, who kicked hundreds of home and away goals, or Max Rooke, who kicked bugger all? No contest. You need 22 who will all go when it's their turn. It's a culture we need to start building now.

I was there. I was pretty close to it actually. Immediately afterward I was looking for the runner.

For once I think Barrett is right. Garlett definitely shirked it, and was dropped as a result. I was surprised at the time he wasn't dragged. If anyone doubts it watch this again from 4.30: http://www.afl.com.au/video/2016-06-06/this-dee-failed-the-moment Does anyone seriously think a player of Garlett's ability misjudged that ball? Why weren't his arms extended further? He was clearly worried about what was behind him (and let's face it, he tends to avoid heavy contact in aerial contests). I don't expect players of Garlett's build and type to throw themselves into physical contests regularly - they are more dangerous hanging back for a loose ball. But the incident on Saturday in the first quarter was simply a case of not going when it's your turn. It was a critical moment and a scoring opportunity missed. We had no hope of beating Hawthorn if any player did that. The fact that Jeff otherwise had a bad game wouldn't see him out of the team for this week. But the coach/selectors have done the right thing sending this message. What would Kennedy/Michie/Grimes/ANB and others think if Garlett remained in the side? Standing firm under the ball in that situation must be a non-negotiable at our cub, and I for one am glad that it seems now that it is.

Not even the most pessimistic supporter could argue that we're not heading in the right direction after Neeld. 7 wins and a percentage of 77 is a lot better than 2 wins and 54%. People who continue to have this attitude in the face of undeniable improvement should stop pretending to be Melbourne fans at all.

Yes! I do this every year. While watching Parish's highlights and getting excited it occurred to me that this is completely irrational. I recall how excited I was by the highlights of Morton, Blease, Toumpas, Tapscott, Gysberts and even Lucas Cook (so mobile for a big bloke, good hands, good skills). It's fine to be interested in what type of player we might be getting and what their strengths are, but getting one's hopes up on the basis of those tapes is utterly pointless.

The Demonlanders who have immediately rejected the idea of drafting Melksham should consider how many players who got a game for us this year would be completely incapable of kicking some of those goals: eg 60m out, or off the non-preferred from 50. His more recent form means we shouldn't pay a lot for him, but if we get to point where this bloke is a depth player (rather than guys like Bail/McKenzie/M Jones/Riley etc) it will be a sign we are a MUCH better side.

Seeing that I thought I couldn't love this bloke any more. Then I saw the interview he did the next day when he admitted, with a smirk, that the chat as they both ran to the bench involved him asking Joel Selwood why he was bleeding so much. At about 2.40: http://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/2015-06-22/media-conference-jack-viney

Just on Jack Watts' debut - I think the media has created a myth about it. Sure, the club shouldn't have promoted it in the way they did (ie the press conference before the game) but Watts was far from our worst player on the day. From memory he got as many touches as our captain, James McDonald, and he used the ball well. The footage of those flogs from Collingwood jumping on him (led by chief [censored] Maxwell), has been replayed countless times. What doesn't get replayed is the umpire awarding Watts a free kick as a result. I'd like to think Roos will play Brayshaw if he thinks he's ready. He will just be careful not to create the impression that we are relying on players this young for our improvement.

I would love to see Dirty Dustin end his career by injuring himself with a characteristic, albeit miscalculated, snipe. The last surviving thug of the Sheedy era.

Pates you make a good point about the potential ongoing influence of the doping saga on Essendon. I hadn't factored that in, and was barely convincing myself that we are closer to a flag than the Bombers. The key question is: as guys like Heppell, Hurley, Zaharakis and Daniher are peaking as players, what, if anything, will they be getting out of Watson, Goddard, Cooney (and Stanton)? I'm assuming Fletcher and Chapman will be gone.

I'd be interested in peoples' views on our prospects, given our current list and coaching staff, compared with other teams in the competition. Not prospects for winning games or even making the finals, but prospects for winning the next flag. That is, in comparing us with each other club, ask just one question: who is closer to winning the flag? I think that sometimes the answer to this question puts us ahead of some sides who are currently better than we are (ie most clubs) but have less scope for improvement. These sides might need to go through a phase of renewing their list before they could be genuine contenders. So going through last year's ladder from the top, I'd rather be Melbourne than: Essendon (too many important players are too old) Richmond (can't see the current list winning a flag. Too many deficiencies to be able to 'top up' to contend in the near future) Carlton (mixture of Essendon and Richmond's problems) Brisbane (only because we have Hogan. Their midfield looks better than ours) St Kilda (among other reasons, Hogan might be here for our next flag, Riewoldt will not) I hesitated about a few other clubs, paricularly North and the Bulldogs. In the end though I think they can each lay a claim to being closer than we are (Boyd is critical for the Dogs). This year we may be a better side than GWS, but I think they've got greater potential over the medium-long term. I have also assumed that key players will stay where they are (eg Dangerfield)

Players like JKH can look quicker than they are for a number of reasons. In short, football is not a sprint. Anticipating where the ball will go makes you look quicker, reacting to the play through a combination of reflexes and quick thinking helps, but also if you are willing to gather the ball at pace, or lay tackles at pace, you will appear quicker than pure running ability suggests. These attributes are what made Davey appear so quick. Not so much pure speed as what you can do while travelling at speed.

What shocked me more than Dermie's 'cancelled training' story was hearing from Schwarz that the coaching selection panel which chose Neeld was comprised of: G Lyon, C Schwab, D McLardy and G Jalland. Is this true? Surely it is bleedingly obvious that some input from other former players and coaches would be useful for a panel like that.

I will go to the game next week. I won’t judge those who don’t. It has been a hard a decision for me. When my wife told me today that it wasn’t worth it, she was probably correct. When she said that I had been in a bad mood all weekend, she was right. Essendon will in all likelihood pound us. F^!k Essendon. The savaging from the media has been thoroughly deserved. F^!k the media. I was at the Western Oval in Round 22, 1987 when we beat Footscray. I remember it vividly. I was 8 years old. Couldn’t tell you what else happened when I was 8. The passion and the yearning in the Melbourne supporters at the ground was palpable. Their attention was torn between the action on the field and the scores from the Hawthorn-Geelong game coming through transistor radios. Their yearning was fed by 22 years without finals football. 22 years. Some of those supporters would have followed the team for all of those years. Some of them would have turned up in the rain in the mid 70s, to watch a team that hadn’t had a hope for a decade and wouldn’t have a hope for another one still. I remember what that win felt like for me, and I didn’t even understand. Imagine what it felt like for them. When success comes around again, I want to be one of them... Those happy few. We’ve now had 6 years without finals. I will be there on Saturday night.