At the break of Gawn

This feels like Christmas Eve when I was an 8 year old. Absolutely pumped, but some nerves kicking in now. As long as the rain doesn’t come early, I think we’ve got this.

Do: Deelirious - Dees break the 57 year Norm Smith curse. Don’t: Sons of the west. Dogs claim second premiership in 5 years as the norm Smith curse continues for the Dees.

Looks very light on. Reminds me of the warm up before a game, probably even less intense. Everyone is looking pretty relaxed (watching on Fox)

First time I’ve seen the majority pick the Dogs. Reckon it’s been about 75-25 towards Melbourne I’ve seen.

Ross Lyon hasn’t rated us all year. He would hate the fact if Goody broke a massive premiership drought but he couldn’t at the Saints. Lloyd to be fair has been on us from about rnd 18 or 19. I was surprised Cornes tipped us considering two weeks ago on the Sunday Footy show he had picked the Dogs to win following their win over his beloved Port.

Ryan Gardner has been dropped for this Saturday. Keath to replace him. I’m ok with this. Dogs have a pretty good win/loss record when Gardner plays.

Sounds like a good omen to me. #raisehell #giveemhell

Just saw this on ‘On the Couch’. It’s a really interesting decision on whether we will equal them at the stoppages or not. We equaled Geelong at the stoppages in Rnd 23 in the first half and out back 6 looked vulnerable against the likes of Hawkins and Cameron. Given the Dogs don’t have the same firepower as the Cats I think it’s something Goody will be willing to do. The question is, will Goody equal them at the stoppages at the start of the game to ensure the Dogs don’t get a fast start, or will be back our system in first? The other factor in all of this is Gawn. If Gawn is dominating hit-outs early, we probably don’t need an extra person at the stoppage. If he can give us silver service and first possession post clearance we will probably be ok. Port Adelaide last week actually won the first possession post clearance but they were so fumbly and error ridden they couldn’t take advantage of it.

This is just a random stat that has no meaning. It’s like the roulette wheel landing on black 5 times a row, and people drawing the conclusion it’ll definitely land on black again.

The weather is looking very good for this Saturday in Perth. 25 and sunny with 0% chance of rain.

Probably due for a correction then.

It’s disappointing, but honestly if they win it, I won’t care all that much. It is one of the biggest monkeys on the back in sport and for us to rid ourselves of it will be a mixture of joy and relief. I also think this group of players are special and they seem like good people in general. Yes it’s disappointing that we’re not there, but how good would it be if Max Gawn is our first captain since Barass to hold up the cup? Or seeing the likes of Petracca, Oliver, Viney, May, Brayshaw all become premiership players. Aside from the jubilation of long suffering demon supporters like myself, the smile on these players faces will be something special.

Spargo is a massive loss if he misses. Our best tackler, doesn’t waste a possession and kicks goals.

100% agree with this. If it’s not a wet night on Saturday, I think we’ll win by 5-6 goals.

Very similar talk on the Geelong board last week but less confident. Talk of Duncan, Tuohy, Ratagolea etc changes the rnd 23 result etc etc. What did it mean in the end? Nothing. The rnd 19 game will be nothing like the GF. I’m with David King on this, the rnd 11 and rnd 19 games aren’t great reference points. In fact, the rnd 11 game is probably a better reference. What are the factors this time in our favour? - No Josh Bruce, their leading goal kicker (kicked 3 in rnd 19) - Melb will most likely win contested possession again - It won’t be a wet game (based on an extended forecast) which means our aerial prowess will be an advantage this time - We are fitter and in better shape compared to the rnd 19 game. Factors not in our favour: - Treloar and Dunkley in the side which extends their midfield rotation, however each player has been down overall with their 2021 output - Stef Martin playing, however this could be our advantage as Martin is very unfit.

It’s unbelievable how good they think Bailey Smith is. He’s literally hasn’t had someone play on him for the last 2 weeks. I have seen him play some awful footy this year, especially against the Hawks late in the season. I’m actually not worried about him at all. I hope Goody watched the Hawks v Dogs game in rnd 21. Clarko did a masterclass on Bevo and there were no free roaming dogs players at any stoppage. I know sometimes Melbourne likes to have someone drop off at the back of the stoppage but it’s imperative we match their numbers otherwise they will roll through them with ease.

I was genuinely annoyed when I heard he had changed his mind for the Cats game. He lauded our performance against Brisbane and called us his no.1 seed. Then on the Sunday, leading up to the PF for first crack, instead of being as keen as Joey on us, he had unexpectedly cooled on us and called it a 50-50 game and made a remark how it’d be nice for Dangerfield to have a premiership tattoo! Yesterday on Whately’s “means test” on SEN, Gerard made the comment that after Friday night he thought no one can beat Melbourne but then after Saturday night, he thought the Dogs performance was as equal to ours and hence he thought the GF would be a 50-50 game. King then disagreed with this and thought Melbourne were still the stronger team, but he did entertain Gerard’s idea by calling out this champion data expected score comment from rnd 19. I would not be surprised if King changed his mind multiple times before the actual morning of the GF.

Only ever met one and that was through work. Good guy and was very humble following 2016 and had a soft spot for the Dees. I think they’re pretty tolerable but there are some absolute nuffies on social media I see always posting 🐶🐶🐶 and blindly think they’ll always win because it doesn’t matter who the opposition are, the Dogs can beat anyone on their day with their spirit. Bevo (not Luke Beveridge, but the guy who does the Bev show) is one of the worst. Oh and Stevo (Mark Stevens) is insufferable. Most one eyed Dogs supporter you’ll see.

We’re still favourites. $1.64 to $2.26.

Melb vs top 8 sides (incl, finals): 10-2 Dogs vs top 8 sides (incl. finals): 7-5 Port vs top 8 sides (incl. finals): 5-5 We’re a different kettle of fish.

One thing on our side is the bye. The Dogs don’t play well after the bye. Some recent examples: 2021 - Rnd 14 - After the bye the Dogs lost to the Cats 2020 - EF - After winning 3 on the trot at the end of the season, following the pre-finals bye, the Dogs lose to the less fancied Saints. 2019 - EF - After 3 wins on the trot including some massive wins, the dogs lose to the Giants even though they belted them in rnd 23. I really feel this week off will hurt them. As Gawn said in an interview, he said he felt like we’ve mastered the bye. We’ve handled it once extremely well and bashed the Cats. I have a feeling the Dogs won’t handle it as well as us.

I didn’t know McKay played for the dogs? If you’re talking about Naughton then he’s no where near it. Fritsch has kicked 7 more than him and played 1 less game.

I think it’s easy to forget that Port beat the Dogs at Marvel in rnd 23 and the Dogs had an even better side playing that game. Port Adelaide simply didn’t show up. The Dogs eclipsed them in contested possession by 25 in the first qtr. It was an AFL record. There’s no way the Dogs are getting anywhere near that against us. In fact, even when we lost to them in rnd 19 we won the contested possession by 20 overall. We’ve been the number 1 team with scores from stoppages they last 4 weeks, which was our weakness in rnd 19. Like others on here, I think if we are even in the contest and it’s a dry game, we will win.

To make me feel better, can anyone mount a case why playing the Dogs is better for us than Port (if they had shown up?

They won both their games there though this year.