At the break of Gawn

I hope this doesn't come back to bite me, but if we win, I'm definitely going to find some replay of the Blues radio to listen to the next day 😂

My tip is that Schache will be the sub. Provides coverage for Gawn and is a better forward than Grundy. Unless we can't mark anything in our forward 50, I suspect he'll get subbed in late. Maybe even for Gawn if we're 5 goals up.

Think he needs to. I don't think we can carry him with just 0-1 goals.

Goals from centre clearance is my biggest worry with Carlton. If we negate that to only 1 or 2 from the whole night then I think we'll win.

I'm not overly familiar with Tmac's injury, bit Fritch's was an impact injury (hard to do much to prevent) and Petty's was pretty much impact as well since how McKay landed on him. I think the injuries have just been unlucky. Same area of the ground and at the same time of the year.

Getting a bit more nervous now. We lost to the team that finished 1st by 7 pts. Blues almost lost to the team that finished 8th. Surely we cover the Blues tonight?

I'm sure we'll cross the bridge if it happens, but if we go out in straight sets tonight, I'm predicting quite a few wholesale changes with our offence, potentially even a new forwards coach over the off-season. I don't think anyone can stomach another year of problems with our forward half.

I'm not as excited about tonight as I was last week. Mainly because I'm still a bit annoyed that we're again fighting to avoid straight sets. Having said that, I'm actually more confident on a win tonight as compared to last week which I thought was 50-50. There was a level of unknown about the Pies last week because they had been in poor form but they had that big win against Essendon and then the bye. Carlton played their grand final last week. They're not going as well as a lot of people think, and majority of their streak was against bottom 6 sides. Apart from Weitering, their defence is no where near as talented as Collingwood's. Martin and McKay are also big loss for them. The last thing I'll say is, really good teams don't just fall to 16th on the ladder and lose 7-8 in a row mid season. Carlton have gone on a hot streak, but deep down we all know they're not winning the flag this year. We're a better side, we've been in the 8 all year and top 4 for most of it. Dees by 22 I think it'll be 90-68.

I just noticed that last year between our two finals losses we made no team changes between the QF loss and the SF loss. Hopefully a bit change (albeit two forced) will yield a result.

They played a game at Marvel together and got belted by Marshall.

Thinking about this a bit more, Carlton are poor once the ball gets on the outside. My thinking is that we’ll try and get the ball into space and run in and behind their defenders. The Carlton defence plays back shoulder, you need to beat them with a bit of speed and mobility. Maybe Goody was inspired by Longmire’s decision to sub Amarti and go small which led to the Swans almost running over the top? Either way, I think Schache needs to be sub to give us some insurance in case Gawn goes down or if we’re getting out marked badly down in our forward 50.

Fascinated to see who the sub will be. Can’t see it being Grundy.

Yikes. So when Tmac is rucking we have no tall forwards.

He's payed in finals, and played a huge negating role on Alir in the 2021 prelim for the Dogs. He was one of their best that night. People calling for Turner to play as forward (which isn't happening now anyway) is insane. Surely we don't go with Grundy either which didn't work last time against Carlton. The coaching staff gave up after a half.

I'm a JVR fan but he's kicked 1 goal the last 2 weeks and looks tired. I think if Schache kicks 2 goals, competes well in the air and does serviceable in the ruck then we'll probably be ok.

Jury still out until we beat a big 4 team in a final at the G.

Harris Andrews for Brisbane. Can’t stand the guy

Montagna said 19 but it’s actually 29 as per the graphic and you can go back and check the scores from round 12 and 22.

Considering JvR and Tmac only had 2 hit outs in total on Thursday night I really think you’re putting too much weight into this. Even Spargo could chance a hit out.

Just watching AFL 360, and Joey said Carlton’s forward entries have been awful against us. Apparently Carlton have only had 29 scoring shots from 92 entries against us in 2023. Its almost our lucky day that we’re playing a team just as inefficient as us on Friday night.

Tmac or Schache can do it. Ins: Jordan, Tomlinson, Schache/Turner/Brown, Spargo (Sub) Out: Brayshaw, JvR, Hibberd, Laurie (sub)

Hibbo was a good matchup for Elliott but we don’t need him for Carlton I feel.

I think Schache, Turner or Brown will come in for JvR. Spargo will replace Laurie I think.

Cameron and Mcstay took 3 contested marks in dangerous spots out marking the likes of Rivers. If you want Lever to mark in front of Curnow all night, you’re bringing in Tomlinson.

Mitch Cleary has had an inside word all year. Can almost guarantee you he will release a spoiler tomorrow.